It could be incredibly simple for the Indiana Pacers. They offer contracts to their three primary free agents, all of whom claim to prefer to stay with them, and it's over.

Or it could grow scarily complicated. It all seems to hinge on Jermaine O'Neal.

NBA teams can begin negotiating with free agents and discussing trades on Tuesday. They can begin executing transactions on July 16. The two-week interim figures to be a hyperactive period of teams recruiting players, negotiating with agents and discussing trades with one another.

For the Pacers, the first order of business will be to retain O'Neal, Reggie Miller and Brad Miller. All are current or former All-Stars whom they consider essential to their plan for rebuilding a contending team.

"We've committed to building a style of team and play that over the last three years has shown steady improvement," coach Isiah Thomas said. "It's important we continue to keep moving in that direction. When you develop players, when they become what they are, it's important that you keep them."

O'Neal will be the primary focus because of what he means to them and the interest he could generate from other teams. His decision also could be the key to retaining Brad Miller, who stated after the season that he wanted to see what O'Neal does before making a decision.

The Indiana Pacers could have a worse fate than holding only a late second-round pick in tonight's NBA draft.

They could have a late first-round pick.

Given the contractual commitment to first-rounders and the similarity of the players available from the late first round to the late second round, teams often prefer the latter.

"The best pick in the draft might be No. 30," Pacers president Donnie Walsh said, excluding, of course, the high lottery picks that have the best opportunity to bring future stars.

The 30th pick, first of the second round, is gratefully owned by the New York Knicks. With it, they will only have to pay the player they select a minimum rookie salary of $366,931.

Dallas, meanwhile, owns the 29th pick. If it can't trade it, which it would like to do, it will have to give its selection a guaranteed three-year deal that totals $2,159,100.

nba draft 2003
Pacers try for repeat of success in round 2
With no pick in 1st round, Indiana execs hope they can land another Antonio Davis.

 
Matt Bonner (with ball) could fall to the Pacers with all the international players in the draft. He is a 6-10 forward who spent four years at Florida. -- Phil Sandlin / Associated Press

Related content

? Pacers try for repeat of success in round 2
? Bulls decide to give Wade the twice over



NBA draft

? When: 6 p.m., Thursday
? TV: ESPN
? Pacers pick: First round, none; second round, 49th overall



Arrive late, stay long
Some notable second-round NBA draft picks since 1990:
? 1990: Antonio Davis, 45th pick
Of note: Played six seasons for Pacers; made All-Star team with Toronto
? 1990: Cedric Ceballos, 48th pick
Of note: Averaged 14.3 points over 11 NBA seasons; made All-Star team in '95
? 1991: Bobby Phills, 45th pick
Of note: Played nine seasons for Cleveland, Charlotte before fatal auto accident
? 1992: P.J. Brown, 29th pick
Of note: Has averaged 9.2 points, 7.9 rebounds in 10 seasons; solid defender
? 1993: Nick Van Exel, 37th pick
Of note: Averaging 15.5 points over 10 seasons, 19.5 in playoffs this year
? 1994: Voshon Lenard, 46th pick
Of note: Career average of 11.9 points in eight seasons with three teams
? 1995: Eric Snow, 43th pick
Of note: Nine-year veteran blossomed in Philadelphia under Larry Brown
? 1996: Othella Harrington, 30th pick
Of note: Averaging 8.5 points on 51 percent shooting in seven seasons
? 1997: Marc Jackson, 38th pick
Of note: Was Rookie of the Year candidate with Warriors in 2000-01
? 1997: Alvin Williams, 48th pick
Of note: Had double-figure scoring average the past two seasons for Raptors
? 1998: Cuttino Mobley, 41th pick
Of note: Averaging 17.4 points in five seasons with Houston
? 1999: Manu Ginobili, 57th pick
Of note: Coming off solid rookie season with Spurs, averaging 7.6 points
? 2000: Michael Redd, 43th pick
Of note: Was Sixth Man candidate in Milwaukee last season, averaging 15.1 points
? 2001: Gilbert Arenas, 31th pick
Of note: Averaged 18.3 points last season for Warriors; now a premier free agent
? 2002: Carlos Boozer, 35th pick
Of note: Averaged 10 points, 7.5 rebounds as a rookie for Cavs




By Mark Montieth
mark.montieth@indystar.com
June 25, 2003

Owning the 49th selection in the NBA draft doesn't exactly inspire hope for adding a LeBron James to your roster.

But the Indiana Pacers would gladly settle for another Antonio Davis.

The Pacers will attempt to pull off the difficult feat of adding an impact player with their late second-round pick on Thursday. History suggests most players who last late into the evening on draft night don't last long in training camp.

The Pacers have a template for beating the odds: Take an athletic player, preferably a big man, with a solid work ethic who needs time to become stronger and improve his skills.

That approach worked when they took Davis with the 45th pick in 1990, and could work this year with all the young, unproven international players in the draft.

"He was thin and wasn't developed yet," said Pacers president Donnie Walsh, who had personally scouted Davis when he played at the University of Texas-El Paso. "He went to Europe for three years and came back a completely different human being."

Davis was a valuable reserve for the Pacers for six seasons, then was traded to Toronto for the fifth overall pick in 1999. He made the All-Star team in 2001 and received a contract that still owes him $37 million over the next three years.

Davis grew stronger and better on someone else's payroll in Europe before joining the Pacers. Walsh wouldn't mind waiting on another second-round pick, given his roster's depth. The team has yet to make much use of two of its previous three first-round picks -- Primoz Brezec (2000) and Fred Jones (2002) -- so it's unlikely a second-round pick could have an immediate impact.

"That's the ideal scenario for us this year," Walsh said. "Some 7-foot guy drops to us and we don't need him next season. He's playing in Europe and we can say, 'OK, when you're ready to come to America we'll see you then.' "

The challenge for the Pacers is that the Antonio Davises of the draft are rarities. They've selected 13 players in the second round since Walsh took over the front office in 1986. Of that group, seven played at least one full season, an unusually high ratio. But the odds have dropped since they began a run of winning seasons in 1993-94.

Three of their seven second-round picks since '93 survived. Only Fred Hoiberg had significant impact as a reserve for four seasons. Mark Pope lasted two seasons, in which he played sporadically. Jamison Brewer was recently retained for a third season. He's played just 123 minutes.

Projecting a second-round pick is nearly impossible, and Walsh doesn't drop any names.

International players who fit the Davis-like mold and could be available include Szymon Szewczyk, a 6-10 power forward from Poland; Zoltan Bencze, a 6-11 center from Hungary; Slavko Vranes, a 7-5 center from Serbia and Montenegro; and Uche Nswondu-Amadi, a 6-10 power forward from Nigeria who played three seasons at the University of Wyoming.

International players also push promising Americans deeper into the draft. Some NBA observers believe the best bargains can be found with players coming out of U.S. colleges or high schools.

"In the past a lot of (international) guys slipped to the second round," said David Morway, the Pacers' vice president of basketball operations.

"More of those guys are going in the first round now. It's going to drop the American players down. If you've done your homework you can get good players there."

Should the Pacers decide to "stay home" with their pick, they might consider Matt Bonner, a 6-10 forward from Florida; Keith Bogans, a shooting guard from Kentucky; Carl English, a combo guard from Hawaii; and Jason Kapono, a forward from UCLA.

They all might rank as long shots to have significant NBA careers. But they all have the potential to beat the odds.

"Each year, there are 15 to 20 guys who make a difference," said Al Menendez, the Pacers' scouting director. "But they're not the first 20 guys in the draft.

"It's like a lotto. You just hope one of the lotto numbers is 49 this year."

Owning the 49th selection in the NBA draft doesn't exactly inspire hope for adding a LeBron James to your roster.

But the Indiana Pacers would gladly settle for another Antonio Davis.

The Pacers will attempt to pull off the difficult feat of adding an impact player with their late second-round pick on Thursday. History suggests most players who last late into the evening on draft night don't last long in training camp.

The Pacers have a template for beating the odds: Take an athletic player, preferably a big man, with a solid work ethic who needs time to become stronger and improve his skills.

That approach worked when they took Davis with the 45th pick in 1990, and could work this year with all the young, unproven international players in the draft.

When Pacer's GM Donnie Walsh said the Pacers were seriously considering trading some of their young, inexperienced depth for a veteran; most Pacer fans assumed that the veteran he was speaking of would be able to suit up and play.

      Boy, were we wrong.    
Terrell Brandon

      It seems the Pacers are exploring a trade that would net the Pacers former All-Star Terrell Brandon, but only if agrees to stay retired. "It is one possibility," said Walsh when asked if there was any truth to the rumor. But why? Why would the Pacers trade for retired player who, unlike MJ, won't be making a comeback anytime soon? The answer is simple.

      Money.

      It's all about the Benjamins, plain and simple. You see next February (two years since he last played) Brandon's albatross of a contract ($11.1 million to be exact) comes off his team's books, months before the dreaded luxury tax is due. Not only that, but 80% of his contract would be paid by insurance. So Brandon's contract, in effect, is a "get out of jail free card" for the 2004 luxury tax. With this new found immunity, the Pacers could sign Jermaine O'Neal, Brad Miller, and Reggie Miller without exceeding the tax threshold. They also could make a serious run at free agent point guard Gary Payton, who is reportedly considering the Pacers as an serious option, with their mid-level exception. So why you ask, would the T'Wolves trade a player, or rather a contract, this valuable. They need help, and need it bad. Take Kevin Garnett and Wally Szczerbiak off of the team, and they resemble something you would see in the NBDL. The Wolves are talking contract extension with Garnett, but without help soon he may leave for a team with a real shot at winning. It seems like the perfect fit; the T'Wolves are searching for more talent, and the Pacers are looking for cap relief; but with more and more teams looking at Brandon, what would the Pacers have to give up?

      "It depends on the price, I'm not willing to give up certain types of players to get it," was Walsh's comment when asked who he was willing to part with for Brandon's Contract. Austin Croshere seems to be involved in all potential trades, and would likely be involved if the Pacers are looking to dump salary. However, because Austin makes considerably less than Brandon, and because the T'Wolves could probably get more out of Brandon than simply Croshere, the Pacers would have to add at least one more player to the trade. Most people automatically think of Al Harrington, as he has been rumored to be headed to a number of teams; but I feel Walsh is to frugal to give a talent like Al's for essentially nothing. Another, and more likely scenario, would have the Pacers send Ron Mercer along with Croshere to the T'wolves for Brandon. Mercer is not only a solid, proven NBA talent, he is a newly hot commodity. Why you ask? Because Ron is in the last year of his contract which, in today's NBA, is as good as gold. So lets take a look at the trade:

T'Wolves get:

Austin Croshere: $31 million over the next four years ($7.61 million next year)

Ron Mercer: $6.75 million in last year of contract.

Pacers get:

Terrell Brandon: ($11.1 million next year) (Contract void in February)

Igor Rakocevic: ($563,679 in last year of contract; added for cap filler)
Loren Woods/ Felipe Lopez: (Resigned for $747,404 million; again cap filler)

Why the T'Wolves would do this:

Austin Croshere
      I know, I know everyone has heard the rumors that the T'Wolves would be able to acquire superstars such as Jerry Stackhouse, Rasheed Wallace, Jalen Rose, or Eddie Jones in return for Brandon's contract. However, when it gets right down to it, no team will trade a superstar for a retired player, it's a PR nightmare. And even if these were legitimate options (again their not) T'Wolves GM Kevin McHale is smart enough to know that not one of these three options would work well for the Wolves. Rose, Stackhouse, and Wallace are all head cases, as well as ball hogs, and Jones, although he may be a nice fit, is in the middle of a MAX contract; something the T'Wolves seem very reluctant to take on. In Croshere and Mercer the Wolves would be getting great compliments to surround their two stars. Croshere has proven he can play in this league, and if put in the right situation, he can be a very productive player. Minnesota would be a great fit for him. He would compliment KG very well. Teams would have to show respect for his shot, preventing them from doubling KG. Austin also attacks the basket and crashes the board relentlessly, and at 6'10" he would be a great fit in Minnesota's zone defense. As for Ron Mercer he is also a solid player, once thought to be on the verge of stardom. He is a good shooter, and again is at the end of the contract; so if the Wolves decide they don't like him they can let him go, or if they decide to keep him they can do so at a much cheaper price.

Why the Pacers would do this:

Gary Payton
      Unlike the Mavs, Knicks, and TrailBlazers, Pacer ownership will not allow Donnie Walsh to exceed the luxury tax threshold. The only way the Pacers can sign all of their major free agents and stay under the threshold (projected to be in the $52-54 million range) is by cutting salary. After Brandon's contract comes off the books the Pacers will have committed $26.1 million to 10 players. If the Pacers give O'Neal the MAX (around $12.8 million in the first year), Brad Miller a five year contract worth say $35 million, and resign Reggie for a 2 year - $10 million contract that figure would jump to around $49.5 million committed to 13 players. Thus, leaving the Pacers a choice, they could play it safe by filling out the roster with two veterans, including veteran PG Tim Hardaway who has a team option for $1 million, or they could assume the luxury tax threshold would be at $54 million and offer Gary Payton their entire mid-level exception at $4.5 million. That would leave the Pacers at just over $53.5 million for 14 players, snug up against the most optimistic of luxury tax threshold projections. While this maybe risky it would also make the Pacers an instant contender, not only in the Eastern Conference, but in the entire league.

       It isn't often that a potential trade make this much sense for both teams. It not only works salary wise and basketball wise, but both teams are talking about it.

      Which means it likely won't happen.

Pacers exercise option on PG Brewer.  
Jamison Brewer

      "He's worth another look," Walsh said. "He's got athletic ability and he's improved in knowing how to run a team". Encouraging comments from the Pacers GM who used a second-round draft pick in 2001 to draft the 22 year old PG from Auburn. Although Brewer played in just 23 games over the past two seasons, he showed signs of life during the Pacers mid-season struggles, as he was key contributor in two wins.

With all the international talent flowing into the NBA in recent years, the Indiana Pacers have yet to tap into a gusher on draft night.

But while hindsight offers the opportunity for second-guessing, the Pacers attribute their decisions to their circumstances at the time of the drafts and await a long-term perspective.

Aside from Rik Smits, a native of Holland who played four seasons at Marist College in New York, the Pacers have drafted only one international player. Primoz Brezec, taken with the 27th pick in the 2000 draft, hasn't played enough for a serious assessment.

The 7-1 Brezec played in Slovenia for one season before joining the Pacers. He's played in 22 games each of his two seasons, averaging 2.0 points.

The Pacers, however, don't consider him a bust given his limited playing time behind the likes of Jermaine O'Neal, Brad Miller and Jeff Foster.

On the same day in late May, LeBron James signed a five-year, $5 million contract with Upper Deck, the trading card company, and a seven-year, $90 million deal with Nike that brought a $10 million signing bonus.

Then he got back to business: graduating from Akron (Ohio) St. Vincent-St. Mary High School.

James won't get around to signing a contract with Cleveland until soon after the Cavaliers make him the No. 1 pick in Thursday's NBA draft, but hey, who needs it? At a bit less than $11 million over three years, his rookie contract will be little more than gas money for his Hummer H2.

"My friends probably spend more than I do. You know, I don't need too much," said James, fancy wheels aside. "Glamour and all that stuff doesn't excite me. I'm just glad to have the game of basketball in my life."

One wonders: Is he worth it? Does he have the goods? Is he a prospect like Kobe Bryant was when he passed on college and went directly to the NBA? We know what the frenzied, huffing, hype machine says. Surely, the seasoned skeptics of the NBA would offer a more reserved appraisal.

The Pacers have exercised their option on point guard Jamison Brewer, keeping him under contract for next season.

Brewer, a second-round draft pick in 2001, has played in just 23 games over the past two seasons, but showed promise last season. Playing in 10 games for an average of eight minutes, he averaged 2.2 points and 1.8 assists.

Brewer, the 41st pick overall, played two seasons at Auburn before entering the draft. He turns 23 in November.

The Indiana Pacers' ability to re-sign their free agents without exposing themselves to luxury tax penalties could rest with Terrell Brandon's contract.

It's a contract that pays $12,025,000 next season to a player who's been forced into retirement by an injury. But it's also a contract that becomes void in February, two years from the date he was injured.

Therefore, it wouldn't count against the team that owns it when the luxury tax threshold is determined after next season.

"It's one possibility," Pacers president Donnie Walsh acknowledged Thursday.

Brandon, 33, suffered a fracture in his left femur two seasons ago while playing for Minnesota. He has not played since, and reportedly has no desire to play.

The Pacer Report
By Marc Roberts
for HOOPSWORLD.com
Jun 19, 2003, 15:06  Email this article
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      Tim Duncan's near quadruple-double and David Robinson's heartfelt retirement/father's day/championship celebration speech should mean one thing, and one thing only to all Pacer fans; the much awaited offseason has officially begun. This could very well be the most important three months in the history of the Pacers.  The past (Reggie) and future (JO) are both free agents, not to mention the best center in the Eastern Conference  (take a second and breath Piston fans, at 6'9" Ben Wallace isn't a true center so please don't send me hate mail).  The Pacers also have the draft to deal with, and a huge decision regarding their point guard and coaching positions. Needless to say this will either be the best or worst offseason, as it could shape the Pacers for years to come. So lets dive right in and break it down piece by piece.

The Draft:

      Most draft experts feel there are three major players in this draft (Lebron, Darko, and Carmelo) but since the Pacers don't pick until the second  I don't think Donnie Walsh and company and putting all their eggs in the draft basket. And lets face it, the Pacers have a hard time with the draft. They drafted Austin Croshere, P. Brezec, Freddie Jones, and Jonathan Bender in the last few years, so maybe we should be glad the Pacers pick 49th.  However let us not forget that Antonio Davis was picked late in the second round. The Pacers have been busy looking at all the prospects, and I wouldn't be surprised if Walsh did in fact have something up his sleeve.

Trades:    
How much longer will Jamal be the Pacers PG?

     
      Things just never seem to go Jamal Tinsley's way. He was thought to be a top 10 pick. The Pacers choose him 27th. After the start of his rookie year, he was thought to be the rookie of the year. He finished on the all-rookie 2ND Team. Many believed he would be the Pacers point guard of the future, now most Pacer fans hope he is the point guard of someone else's future. The simple fact is that the Pacers have too many talented players to let Jamal Tinsley eat up a starter's share of the minutes. So what do the Pacers do? There has been a lot of talk about trading Al Harrington along with Jamal. Rumors have the pair going to  just about everywhere, but nothing substantial yet. Austin Croshere is also rumored to be on the trade block, but since he is due more that $31 million over the next four years he has been a hard sell. Ron Mecer and Jeff Foster have also been rumored to be moving on.

Coaching:    
How much longer will Isiah be coaching the Pacers?

     
       I know most of you think that I hate Isiah and hope he falls in a hole and is never heard from again. But he is in the same situation Jamal Tinsley is in. The Pacers are too talented to have a middle of the road coach in charge. While many of the big name "free agent" coaches have been signed (Larry Brown, Paul Silas, Jeff Van Gundy, etc.) there are still some great ones out there; namely Rick Carslie. After Larry Bird left the Pacers he publicly gave his support to Rick, and they should have listened. Rick has coached the Piston to two 50 win season and has won a coach of the year award. Can the Pacers really pass on him again? I hope not.

Free Agency:    
Will Payton be willing to take the mid-level exception?
   
     
      Croshere, Harrington, Mecer, Bender, Artest, Foster, Jones, Brezec, and Tinsley will make a combined $38.5 million dollars next year. That means O'Neal, B Miller, R Miller, Hardaway, Brewer, and Strickland need to split about $16 million if the Pacers wish to stay under the luxury tax, and keep last years team intact. Do the math anyway you want, but it just doesn't come out. The Pacer either need to make a trade or go over the luxury tax line, it's as simple as that. JO is going to command the max. B. Miller is going to need $7-8 million to convince him to wear blue and gold, and that leaves Reggie as the other big-time free agent. It is widely excepted Reggie will stay, but for how much. With all their young talent they can't afford to over pay Reggie, however if the Pacers low-ball him he may head home to L.A. for a ring. As for the other three, all are point guards and it would be nice to keep one or two of them. Another interesting possibility is bringing in Gary Payton for the 4.5 million dollar exception. Most GP fans would think this scenario is absurd but unless he re-signs with the Bucks or forces a sign and trade $4.5 million will likely be the most he is offered. Would the Glove come to Indiana? If he did it would easily make the Pacer the favorites in the East.  

Sign the Rally Monkey:  
Can the Rally Monkey save the Pacers?
   
     
      All you SportsCenter fans saw the Rally Monkey being released in front of everyone. Rumor has it he is steamed because of the release and has been working out harder than ever. Still no one has had the guts to sign him. It is even rumored he maybe be willing to switch sports. If this is true the Pacers should jump at this opportunity, even if it means using their entire veterans minimum. I know, all you pessimists are saying to yourselves "$1.2 million for a monkey that jumps up and down and cheers?" but hey we paid $51 million to let Austin Croshere do it.

Predictions and Odds for the offseason:

1.The Pacers draft someone we have never heard of: 3:2
2.That player is on the opening day roster: 20:1
3.The Pacer make a major roster change by way of trade: 3:1
4.Three of the following players will be wearing a different jersey come next season; Croshere, Mercer, Harrington, Bender, Tinsley, Brezec, or Foster. 10:1
5.Isiah Thomas won't be coaching the Pacers next year: 20:1
6.Rick Carslie will be: 40:1 (unless Thomas is fired then 2:1)
7.JO is a Pacer for years to come: Even
8.Brad Miller remains with the Pacers: 2:3
9.Reggie retires a Pacer: 1:100
10.GP retires a Pacer: 100:1
11.The Rally Monkey signs with the Pacers: 150:1

Marc Roberts cover the Pacers for hoopsworld.com, realgm.com and basketballboards.com. He also think the rally monkey is key to the Pacers 2004 title run.