Duffman100 wrote:So you're basing it entirely on #1 picks? And you don't see the fault in that logic? There are a lot of players, from 1 to 30, that struggled early in their careers and eventually became great players.
Of course not, that's simply an additive; and it's a fairly compelling remark that of the 2 players in the last 29 or 30 that have been picked first overall and floundered early, both were MASSIVE busts.
I just honestly can't believe you watch Bargnani, when you say he's regressed in every other ability. Thats just not true. He drives better than he did last year.
I did note this when I was going over his games, yes. But really, it's not that he's driving better, it's that he's getting a few more opportunities to do so and is taking advantage of them a little more aggressively. This is mostly founded on the establishment of his jump shot and league defenders learning that he's a threat on the catch-and-shoot, so they're showing aggressively and he's sending them away with the pump fake or making a decent move off of a swing pass. But it's nothing he didn't show last year.
Hes playing better defence. He passing better.
Debatable. His defense doesn't look better to me; not worse, certainly, but not better. And his passing is no different.
And yes, he can create his own shot, and has shown multiple times that he doesn't just rely on his pump fake. And like I said, which you didn't address, he never has plays run for him. So, of course, he relies a lot on the flow of the offense getting him looks. How many Bargnani isos do you see during the game? Not many.
There's a reason for that. The Raptors don't run isos for him because he's not a good iso player; Bargnani doesn't have the array of moves to take the kinds of plays Bosh gets and regularly produce out of them. He puts his head down when he drives a lot, which is a BIG mistake, he doesn't stop-and-pop well, he doesn't spin, he doesn't have great change-of-pace/direction maneuvers... The tools aren't there. Besides, there's no compelling reason to iso him because he conflicts with three other guys on the team in Bosh, Calderon and Ford.
There's ALWAYS someone ready to start from the outside and go in from the point guard slot and then Bosh is taking up the only other places from where Bargs is effective, the perimeter zones on the weakside of our pick-and-roll play for those 20-foot isos. He's useless in the post, so we can't iso him there...
Where do you want us to run isos for him? His limitations on offense concomitantly limit the places where he can iso FROM.
You're right, he doesn't have any low post game, but like I said, its all about strength. He's never had to play there before, and he doesn't have the strength to establish position. Does that mean he can't do it ever? No. And that's where the entire fault of your posts lie. You're talking in definites. 'He'll never...' etc... You don't know...neither do I. He could become a lost post scorer too, its all about development.
No, no he can't. If you're talking about a primary low post scorer, it'll never happen. History is on my side here, and so are several years of coaching, studying under other coaches, reading about the game and years and years of playing.
Most especially at the NBA level, the post is about development of instincts and comfort level; he's a perimeter player, you don't teach perimeter players how to play predominantly in the post. Even Dirk has a weak, sickly post game that's really bad and only works because of the strength of the rest of his game and the infrequency with which he goes to the low post. He can kind of get it done in the high post but he's still predominantly a perimeter player. Jordan was using the shot that he mastered down low for his ENTIRE career and had a fairly limited post repertoire, which he supplemented with MUCH more offense from the perimeter and from off-ball movement, etc.
Post offense begins early, because you have to learn about physicality, about leverage, about staying calm in traffic and about where players are going to be, how they are going to defend, etc. You need to learn how to pull the moves, learn the counters, learn the fakes. You need to learn how to move without the ball, how to establish and hold position, how to do so against shorter opponents, against stronger opponents, how to use the rim, the backboard off of different types of shots. Hook shots and drop-steps and the game of a backdown scorer is ENTIRELY different in breed from perimeter offense, which is considerably more reliant on quickness, your jump shot and screens. On-ball post screens are very rare; most screens are the ones YOU are setting to foster baseline cuts and cross-key cuts and such like. And Bargs is a crappy screener, he peels way too early every time because he's soft.
He has the potential, he has the ability. His skillset allows him to become a great player. I'm not saying he will, but I'm saying the potential is there. And the fact that people are already giving up on him, is ridiculous and depressing.
I don't see greatness in him, no. I don't see anything in him but a stand-still jumper and that's never led to greatness. Great players have almost universally shown more earlier than what we see from Bargs now.
And again, half the problem isn't that he's been so bad lately, it's that he's totally useless to our team.
Remember, I'm not saying that Bargs is never going to be a good player. I've said numerous times that I can see him being a KVH type player, maybe even a borderline All-Star, but even if he maximized his potential as a spot-up shooter, he would still have anemic value to us because he provides NONE of the things we need from him in terms of production on the court and style of play. He could turn himself into a 20 ppg scorer the way Van Horn was as a young player and Bargs would still be detrimental to the development of our team because he's a crappy rebounder and he's not a shot-blocker and he still doesn't consistently create his own shot or provide post offense.