Glenn Rogers of the San Antonio Express-News speculates about the NBA?s luxury tax. While revenues are up, it doesn?t look like there will be a luxury tax this season. But, revenues will stabilize, perhaps drop some thanks to the new TV contract, and salaries will continue to grow. Thus a tax is expected next summer and that happening will affect roster decisions this summer.

The tax will charge each team one dollar for every dollar they are over the tax limit. That limit is estimated to be in the $53 million to $55 million range. The salary cap is expected to remain close to this years? $42.5 million figure.

The salary cap is a nuisance while the luxury tax is a wall. Once you exceed the salary cap, you are more restricted in making player transactions. Once you exceed the luxury tax, you are forced to pay. That wall could force a team to decide between launching a superior team or one a notch or two lower.

Even though Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban has no problem paying the luxury tax, he still thinks it is a bad idea. "It will hurt the league," he says. "Sacramento is faced with signing Mike Bibby now and the owners shouldn't be punished by getting hit with a tax if they try to keep that great team together." Cuban is in favor of a more laissez-faire attitude ? if the owner is willing to shell out big bucks, let him. But don't add to the burden with a surcharge. Cuban remains in favor of a salary cap because "it sets the rules and regulations" for the playing field. And it also limits how much a player can make.

Some owners, like the Clippers' Don Sterling, don't even want to hit the cap let alone the surcharge figure. With the Clippers? Michael Olowokandi coming to the point where he will need a new contract, it will be interesting to see how Sterling handles the situation and what this situation will mean for the rest of his young stars.

Cleveland boss Gordon Gund says he won't pay the luxury tax and he's banking that opponents won't have the money to offer maximum dough to Andre Miller, his restricted free agent this summer (RealGM note: Miller will not be a free agent until next summer).

Cleveland faces the prospect of re-signing Miller to a $100 million contract for 7-years. To avoid the tax implications of such a contract, there's talk that Cleveland will offer Miller to Chicago for this year's No. 2 pick ? probably Jay Williams. If there were no luxury tax, the Cavs might be more willing to sign Miller.

Minnesota owner Glen Taylor is counting on the luxury tax to help his revenue. "Basically the money will come from the teams that are paying the high revenue for their players, and that money will go to the teams that stay under the cap," he was quoted as saying. "We are going to try to stay under the cap," he said.

With Kevin Garnett?s big salary on the books, Taylor won?t be able to sign any free agents. The Wolves' goal apparently will be to stay with the team basically as is or trade for players with like salaries.

Most agents see the all-around league crunch and figure players not considered franchise or near-franchise caliber will have to settle for the average-salary exception (about $4.5 million) or hope for a sign-and-trade deal, the route taken by Derek Anderson.