Early start on a discussion of retaining FAs

[Fencer reregistered]

First, http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm is the authoritative link for salary cap rules.

Second, I skimmed it and didn't find the relevant portions, so I'm doing this from memory.

Several Cs will the unrestricted FAs after this season, including Eddie House and almost certainly James Posey (Posey has an opt-out, which he'd be foolish not to use).

Neither will be Bird or Early-Bird FAs. Hence to re-sign them, the Cs have two options:

A. Give them the raises ANY player can get. From memory, that's 20% over last year's contract.

B. Use the MLE to re-sign them.

From memory, Posey's most lucrative option is to get a long-term deal at the full MLE. His second-most lucrative is to get the percentage raise, without reference to the MLE. His third-best (and hence this won't happen) is for him to get part of the MLE, like he did this year.

However he gets his raise, there are three main possibiities:

1. A long-term deal.
2. A one-year deal, after which he'll be eligible for a nice raise under the Early-Bird provision.
3. A two-year deal, after which he'll be eligible for any size raise under the Bird provision.

Possibilities 2 and 3 can be sweetened by giving him a player option, which is in effect a free insurance policy. I haven't read up as to the restrictions on contract length/option length combos, nor specifically as to whether they're different depending on which "exception" is used to sign him.

[P2]

Just keep House, Posey and Brown.

[meatball sub]

I think PJ will retire if we close out this series and go out as a champion but we need to do everything within reason to keep Posey and House, they were HUGE last night and have been great for us all season. I'd like to see Gabe get a shot at the backup PG spot since we're proving that a true backup PG is pretty damn overrated.

Pollard will be gone and so will Sam (thank god). I think we should give TA a one year deal with a possible 2nd year option and see if he will come back as a force off the bench with a fully healed knee.

Only guys I think should definitely be gone are:

Sam, Pollard, Scal

I now feel that Powe has become the guy out of him and Big Baby we need to hold on to as our undersized/energy PF to create matchup problems. If we need to trade Big Baby along with Scal's expiring deal then we have to do that to replace PJ as Perk's backup.

With our draft picks we can afford to draft the BPA on Danny's board and develop him. Things certainly are looking bright, especially since we know Rondo is without a doubt our franchise PG for the long term.

[sully00]

I think the Posey situation is even more limited than that. His contract was reported to be a 2 year 7 mil deal and his salary for this season was reported as 3.2 mil so he is already slated for a 20% raise if he takes the option at 3.8 mil. The real issue is whether or not their is more money out there for Posey from another team and chances are not really.

Not that teams won't want him just that the teams that will want him the most and the teams he will want to play for are all in the same financial situation as Boston. His salary is going to cost the Celts 7.5 mil next year.

My guess is James stays and tries to get a longer term deal next year. His productoin isn't any better than what it was in Miami were he played the same role and Boston offered him the deal then. If he opts out at that money chances are he is a goner as there will be other options that will take less to come here ala Grant Hill last season who signed in PHX for half as much money.

That game likely makes it so Eddie House comes back.

Frankly I don't think that teams are going to look at the finals focus on the benches of these two teams being key. I think they are going to look at their rosters and decide whether or not they have 3 all star players committed to the same goal.

Because that is the level the game is at right now. You need 3 real stars to win it and they have to be able to defend and score. I would look for teams try and find that fit either for right now or for 2 or 3 years down the road.

[bceltic55]

I can see Posey staying with Gabe Pruitt as our back up pg. House is history and most likely Scal.

[Fencer reregistered]

You can't commit 20% year over year raises in contracts up front, according to the CBA.

Second, even if Posey is making as much next year as he'd get in a new contract -- not that I think that's the case -- he STILL gains by opting out and getting a new option year. I.e., he gains an insurance policy.

[threrf23]

One note regarding Posey:

He's 32 years old at the start of next season.

Among SF/SG/PGs 31/32 yrs old at the start of a season in recent years,

Ray Allen, 31 yrs old to start the '06-'07 season, missed a significant number of games due to injury for the first time in his career.

Chauncey Billups, Raja Bell, Damon Jones, Charlie Bell, Antoine Walker, and Rafer Alston were all 31 yrs old to start this season. Raja Bell experienced injury problems all season (prob. partially due to the fact he's been playing big minutes for a few years), Rafer Alston and Charlie Bell had injury problems end of season (and were shooting ice cold to start the season), and Billups experienced his problems in the playoffs. I believe Damon Jones missed some games due to injury as well. Antoine Walker truly became a bench warmer for the first time in his career.

Derek Fisher was 32 yrs old at the start of last season. Donyell Marshall was arguably one of the best three point shooters in the league in 04-05, 31 to start that season, and fell off very quickly thereafter due to injury problems. Other 31/32 yr olds to get minutes in 04/05 before noticeably dropping off: Damon Stoudamire, Bobby Jackson, Tony Delk, Bob Sura, and Lamond Murray. Go back another season or two, and names of 31/32 yr olds include Fred Hoiberg, Aaron McKie, Jalen Rose, Glenn Robinson, Eric Williams, Jamal Mashburn, Walter McCarty, Travis Best, and Voshon Lenard.

Now, the fact that Posey is a SF and hasn't played too many minutes in recent years. He's earned his right to opt in for next season or take a payday somewhere else if he so chooses. I'd love to have him back, but I'm not about to propose offering an extension or large raise.

On this note, Doc should really watch PP's minutes next season. Coaches just don't appear to see this stuff in their rear view mirror.

[Al n' Perk No Layups!]

Pollard will be gone

I disagree. I think Posey will opt out forcing us to use most if not all of our MLE on him. I think we'll also try to resign Eddie House and I believe PJ Brown will retire. Without the MLE to sign a guy like Kurt Thomas, I think we may bring back Pollard for the minimum so we have some size off the bench.