Road to a Championship start here, 2022 Draft.

[Whole Truth]

Is it starting to come clear as to why Portland was a perpetual loser ?.

Credit Dort's defense for BI's struggles as BI was effective in his non Dort matchups which were few & far between. Problem is, CJ as the secondary option also shot 30% on volume for the series allowing OKC to successfully leave Dort on BI because there's was no other offensive threat other than the one Green kept benching, lol. Pels held OKC in relative check defensively. Problem, Green sacrificed his offense to do so.

Pelicans played soft ... Traded Hart's grit & fight for CJ's volume inefficiency, hero ball & point of attack defense.

Daniels riding bench for the series was hard to stomach, especially in light of the results. Stunted development because the 30m dud has to start. Same starting point, the young OKC team is riding their youth, development into early success & just out seasoned the so called veteran leadership of the Pels.

It's just salt in the wounds that Pels are capped because of a stupid trade & even dumber extension.

None could have seen this result coming. Only 2 more yrs to waste.. Bright side, Zion will only be 25 I believe by then.

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For those who think I don't know OKC tried to trade 2's for 3's to run Jonas defensively.

Can't play the worse point of attack defender. CJ, every minute Jonas is on court & expect different. I have been saying it all yr & leading up to the PO's. This is why the Raptors with Jonas & Derozan couldn't hurdle the Cavs despite reaching as far as the ECF's. Cavs with the worse post defense of any PO team had no answer for Jonas defensively so they had to try & run him offensively but Raptors would never sub out their star Derozan & his lack luster defense to run their offense through Jonas with the adequate defensive compensation needed. So Cavs successfully blitzed them with the 3 ball & were the only team in the East capable of running Jonas. in Derozan's combined baited inefficiency. Raptors placed the blame on the 20 minute players shoulder, went out & got Ibaka, the ideal 3 & D centre & they still couldn't beat the Cavs. Take a guess why ?. (Defozan's inefficiency & defense).

Take the game Jonas scored the first 11 points & Pels were up 11-7. A CJ brick & 0-7 Q saw OKC end up taking a 4 pt lead out the Q despite not playing well. (0-7) while bringing nothing to the table defensively. How in the world was OKC capable of running the player who put up the first 11 points off court, lol.

You know how frustrating it was for me to see you start Jonas with the bench only for you to trot out CJ with him, lol.

Not as if one of the better point of attack defenders was rotting on the bench as you made no adjustments to OKC trying to run your favorable offensive matchup with the 3 ball. OKC's adjustment to Jonas was offensive & Green matched every minute he played with CJ's point of attack defense ugh ...

[Whole Truth]

Saw a post that was asking the question why Zion/BI were a more effective duo than Zion/CJ by the numbers.

2 words, efficiency & defense. The effectiveness of the Zion & BI duo are directly related to the 10 games Daniels started. It's reflected in the 2 man pairing with Zion. Daniels elite defense had the highest 2 man pairing with Zion despite playing 4 on 5 offensively & CJ's "spacing" the lowest. Point of attack defense is the main answer as to why but CJ's volume 35% inefficiency (15 APG) plays into it. Daniels was averaging 5 APG as a starter & as I posted at that point in time in the hope Daniels would continue to start in CJ's return. Zion was averaging 18 APG on better efficiency apposed to the 8-12 APG he was taking with CJ because Daniels was low usage in his defensive compensation.

Answer as to why ZIon & BI's numbers were more effective = better efficiency with Daniels low usage & elite ball denial.

BI & CJ, average 30 APG on 35% efficiency.
Jonas & Zion, average 22 APG on 60% efficiency.

Offensively removing one of the 2 high usage wings = 15 APG at 35%, increasing Zion's usage & efficiency.
Defensively, CJ is the apposing teams point of attack, BI's length is the better defensive option.

Watch the Lakers in season tournament game where they abused that Zion/CJ combo to the tune of a 40 point blow out. They zoned Zion & scored easy off the combined inefficiency with no resistance. Made no difference who was at the rim. Which brings me to the poster asking this question also noting Jonas improved rim protection in the minutes Daniels started. Ya no ****, cause & effect. Jonas may not be a rim protecting big but with CJ's inefficiency & defense, Jonas weakness is amplified & most will only notice what's taking place at the rim, not the point of breakdown.

Nance is a better defender than Jonas, how much better was his rim protection with CJ on court ? (Nance with the starters was -1 in the 100 minutes he started) Jonas +20 with Daniels. Instead of going back to what worked, Green went to Nance & Daniels to play 3 on 5 offensively apposed to 4 on 5, chasing Daniels from the game, lol.

What should also be taken into account here is that Zion & CJ minutes together without BI generally were bench minutes against lesser comp, where Danials was starting in place of CJ against the top of the West.

As constituted the main issue with this team should be clear & it's not rim protection.

[Whole Truth]

Seeing a lot of BI trade rumors. Said at the start of last season, while Murphy is not the talent BI is, his game fits with Zion better. However Zion & Murphy's defense needs more perimeter compensation than just Herb.

So assuming the core is Zion PF, Murphy SF, Herb SG...

Target Murray to replace CJ as the starting PG. Either by sending CJ to the bench as 6th man or trade.

Seeing that BI might be made available - I'd use his value to take a swing at a high upside C (Sarr) apposed to a lateral move. Detroit really can't afford to have another season like last. BI gives them a shot at making the PO's, fill seats & raise losing interest.

Detroit trade - (Fournier 18m expiring, Ivey, top 5 pick, 6m TPE) for (BI, #21)

Orlando trade - (Expiring filler, Suggs, Denver 25) for (CJ)

Atlanta trade - (Murray) for (Fournier, expiring filler, Suggs, Denver 25, Worse of Lakers/NO's 25)

NO's trade - (BI, CJ, NO's 21, Worse of Lakers/NO's 25) for (Murray, Ivey, Detroit top 5 (Sarr), 6m TPE)

Resign Jonas 2yrs, 1yr team option as a stop gap to Sarr's development & potential trade value with the TO.

Sarr - Jonas - Zeller
Zion - Nance
Murphy - Daniels - Naji ?
Herb - Hawkins
Murray - Ivey - Jose

In trading BI for Sarr's potential & upside at C with Zion still being young, there's a soft development reset. This is the reason CJ is moved for Hawkins & Daniels to get minutes off the bench apposed to a more veteran presence. Pels will have 3-4 players developing for a higher upside.

Sarr, Herb & Murray 2 way players complimenting Zion & Murphy's spacing.

[Whole Truth]

To sell something, anything, you have to convince the buyer of what you're selling. Here is the pitch.

NO's have seemingly decided to build around Zion. What's learned, is that in order to do so, you cannot target one way players because Zion needs defensive compensation as much if not more so than offensive compensation. Daniels & CJ are on opposite ends of the spectrum as one way talents. Daniels, an elite on ball defender, CJ, an elite floor spacer. Daniels elite perimeter defense had the best 2 man pairing with Zion & not just bench minutes, despite NO's having to play 4 on 5 offensively. CJ's elite spacing fit with Zion had the lowest 2 man pairing because of his lack of defensive compensation. Zion wasn't playing in the OKC series but you see how bad CJ's defense was when targeted. Doesn't matter how effective his spacing was, offense/shooting is inconsistent & requires defensive compensation. If CJ is taking more shots than Zion, which he was, at lower efficiency, which he is. You can see how CJ would decrease Zion's effectiveness, in usage & defense. Where it's pointed out, Daniels is low usage & elite perimeter defense. What these polar opposite fits show is that point of attack defense was more important than spacing the floor. There's more consistency in defense than offense... In Daniels 10 starts with CJ out, not one game including the losses were greater than a couple possessions. Whereas, with CJ starting, Pels got blown out in cold shooting & poor usage. The fact Jonas defense played in those games Daniels started, shows the greater need for defense was at the point of attack, than at the rim. Not that there isn't a need at the rim but priority.

Pelicans are in a unique but good spot. Trey is not as talented as BI but he's an ideal spacing fit with Zion & has proven chemistry with him. He's not exactly a 2 way player yet but there's still room for improvement on that end. Having said that, he's not much of a defensive downgrade from BI if he is at all. So Murphys "fit" allows NO's to shop BI's higher value to fill at least one hole effectively with a 2 way option.

Herb's improved shooting with his top tier defense, IQ & overall feel for the game in a guards league, makes him the ideal glue player, trading him would just create another hole. He's as untouchable a player there is for this team. So you're looking at Zion at PF, Murphy at SF & Herb at SG being set heading in..

Upgrading CJ. Pels need a point of attack defender, a floor spacer, a low usage guard who can create & take care of the ball in losing BI's creation ability to Murphy's fit. My target here, is Murray. He can defend at point, he shoots 6+ 3's at a good clip & you can put the ball in his hands if you need to. Doesn't hurt he can play at pace. I'm thinking this target will be a lesser version of Daniels perimeter defense, a lesser version of CJ's spacing but the combined skill set a better fitting piece with Zion on both ends. CJ with a young player & picks for Murray, expiring filler. If Hawks don't like the CJ fit, Magic have a need for CJ's elite spacing. Hold onto Daniels if possible in the hope he puts his offensive game together. Give the Hawks a pick based package while simultaneously trying to shed CJ's salary.

In losing both BI & CJ, the center cannot be offensively deficient. It's near impossible to find an ideal 2 way center as they are rare & valued. This is where I'm targeting the draft & Sarr's 2 way upside. It would be a step back to raise the ceiling, Zion is still only 23. No move is without it's risk. Sarr has the 2 way potential along with being big & mobile. I'm looking at Detroit & Portland to leverage this avenue. Both lotto teams have Duren & Ayton at C in a weak draft class. BI could potentially lift either team into relevance over relying on more potential. Detroit especially, need to start winning. Top 3 pick for BI to net the ideal 2 way C on rookie scale. Due to the raw nature of this concept, I resign Jonas to bridge the development gap. Give a team option to increase flexibility & trade value if necessary as some team could shed salary with the team option.

Sarr - Jonas
Zion - ?
Murphy - ?
Herb - Hawkins/Daniels
Murray - Daniels/Jose

[Whole Truth]

I'm no pro scout but I know there's 2 skills that translate, shooting & defense. Sarr is an offensive project but everything he does athletically & defensively should translate. Unlike Hayes, he has a feel for the game. Defensively. he's everything Green wants & will be better than Nance out the block, especially on the boards. I know NO's would be getting a mobile defensive rim runner out the gate. A cheaper & more controlled option than targeting Allen who's set to expire & become more expensive to retain. Allen is also limited offensively as he doesn't even attempt 3's more less make them, where Sarr has shown the potential too.

NO's supposedly have the best shooting coach. My projection for Sarr is a 7' version of Bam with the potential to space the floor. You are not getting this kind of center via trade without the risk of "potential". No trade is without it's risk. IMO this is the Pels future at C.

I assume with the offensive limitation & rawness. When teams zone Zion there will be issues & it's for this reason I'd use some of the money shed in trade to resign Jonas to bridge his development gap. Involve a team option that would have value to teams trying to save money. Jonas & Sarr > Jonas & Nance out the gate & with any defensive upgrade on the perimeter over CJ >>>>> more so.

I missed the draft & see Hawks landed the #1 pick. This could be good. Murray & Sarr, one stop shop. Like Detroit & Portland, Okongwu is a good young C & Hawks can evade development risk by getting known & wanted commodity. A former #2 pick, "proven", lengthy wing who can score & create.

The incentives I'd offer the Hawks - future picks in supposedly better drafts (Lakers 25/future Bucks pick) & taking back salary they want to shed instead of expiring value.

Next step is to get CJ to move to the bench, if not. Trade him to the Magic who need spacing for expiring value, pick/s. (Denver 25, Suns 26)

Frame work -

NO's trade - (BI, Lakers 25, Denver 25, Suns 26) for (Murray, bad contract, #1 Sarr)

It's very possible Lakers land lotto in 25 as they've been play in with relative good health. I'm not sure if the value is right but this would be the frame work. If CJ accepts a bench role, Pels could dangle either Daniels or Hawkins as alternative value.

End product -

Sarr - Jonas
Zion - Nance
Murphy - (?) /Daniels
Herb - Daniels/Hawkins
Murray - Jose/Daniels

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Murphy takes any strides defensively that rotation would have only 2 way players surrounding Zion. No more all defensive or offensive lineups out of Green, lol. He's the deep spacing threat to spread the floor.

Herb an elite glue player, solidly shot 40% on decent volume combined with his elite defense

Murray upgrades the point of attack defense over CJ. He was taking 6 attempts at a 40% clip just shy of CJ's production from 3. He got the ability to create & take care of the ball as a secondary option in losing BI's creating ability for Murphy's fit. He's also 5-6 yrs younger than CJ for a better timeline.

Sarr IMO will hit the ground running as a defensive rim runner but he has the potential to hit 3's where Allen doesn't even take, more less make them. Added benefit of cost & control to raising the teams ceiling. It's not to late for a soft reset. SGA was older than Zion when OKC kicked their rebuild off & they're currently starting a rail thin rookie C as the top seed in the West. Not to late to reverse NO's rushing the brush in trading for CJ as a sub 500 win team.

Daniels is an elite defender with potential, I'd retain if possible but would trade for Sarr, if necessary. Especially if Murray is coming back in the deal..

Jose & Hawkins, I'd question the size & defense of that combination off the bench, which is why i'd have preference to retain Daniels.

Zion gets injured, NO's turn to development of Sarr, Daniels, Hawkins & ultimately the draft. No more middle ground

As I said, I'm no pro scout so if the NO pro's are on board with Sarr as this teams future C. Go all in. Trade the necessary value to get it done.

[Whole Truth]

Portland - Scoot & Sarr for BI +
Detroit - Ivey & Sarr for BI +
Hawks - Murray, bad contract & Sarr for BI +

CJ to Magic for expiring value, Denver 25

Resign Jonas with a team option, to bridge Sarr's development gap. Which will create trade value where teams looking to shed salary can decline the team option.

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After seeing the draft order. I'm studying if Detroit could help the Pels land the #1 pick from Atlanta.

Atlanta would receive a young talent, the 5th pick & the lakers 25 for #1

So in a draft where there isn't much separation between 1 & 5. Atlanta having Okongwu who's a good young C ready to start, may believe they can land a desired target at 5 while netting the lakers 25 & a young player to maximize value.

Expand the deal for #1 & Murray.

Pistons trade - (Expiring contract, young player, #5) for (BI, NO's 21)

Atlanta trade - (Murray, bad contract, #1) for (Expiring contract, young player, Daniels, #5, Lakers 25 FRP)

NO's trade - (BI, 2024 21, Lakers 25) for (Murray, bad contract, #1)

[Whole Truth]

Saw a trade involving Washington. BI for Kuzma, Deni, #2.

Washington dumping Kuzma's 4yr 25m would aid a BI extension & BI is more than likely better than what they could potentially land at #2 in this draft. Then factor the proven commodity vs potential & you can see it for Washington.

Seeing this deal mentioned. I'm thinking this is how Pels could potentially move up to #1 with Atlanta & Murray coming in means CJ to benchh or trade. In the soft reset to land the future C. I'd trade CJ to Magic for Carter or Issac & Suggs. This would allow Pels to either trade Daniels or flip Suggs to Atlanta to pair Young with a defensive guard as Murray's replacement. leaving Pels with a young defensive option off the bench

Orlando trade - (Issac or Carter, Suggs, expiring or cap space) for (CJ) not sure the pick value required

Washington trade - (Kuzma, Deni, #2) for (BI, #21)

Atlanta trade - (Murray, Capela, #1) for (Issac or Carter, Suggs or Daniels, Deni, #2, Lakers or NO's 25)

NO's trade - (BI, CJ, Daniels or flip Suggs, #21, Lakers or NO's 25) for (Murray, Capela, Kuzma #1)

Atlanta dump a declining Capela's contract, net the younger Issac or Carter to backup Okongwu who is developed & ready to start. They net 2 young players & a couple defenders to surround Young with replace Murray. Drop 1 spot which would be cheaper than drafting #1 giving Pels preference at 1 where with Onkongwu & one of Issac or Carter, they might be eyeing a guard & would pay less at 2. Potentially net an additional asset in 25.

Pels take some risk to land their future 2 way C Sarr at 1 at cost & control. They upgrade their defense at point of attack with Murray while not sacrificing their offense completely. In moving Trey to the starting role, Kuzma fills the hole at backup SF/PF over having to extend BI. So while Kuzma's contract is not good it's less risky than giving BI 50m with Murphy in the wait. In taking the Capela salary dump from Atlanta they have a veteran C for 2yrs to bridge a development gap without adding salary in singing one, though I would have preferred a Jonas extension, especially with CJ heading out for better perimeter defense.

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NO fans all up on Lauri. One poster suggests BI & 3 1st for him, lol

Lauri changed 2 teams as trade filler before becoming valuable under a good coach. Buyer beware. his value is system based. Most of what he does in Utah, is assisted. Put 2 & 2 together on why his value upped on his 3rd team. BI is the more talented player & it would be funny as hell to see him become an Allstar in Utah while NO's lose 3 firsts for a undersized, non defensive, floor spacing C. I wouldn't mind the target but his value is too inflated.

You have to be able to effectively isolate talent to properly evaluate it. The Lauri you see in Utah is not the one you will get in NO's.

Which brings me to my trade interest of drafting Sarr to be this teams future C. I see NO's fans talking about the risk attached to targeting potential. Everything is risk adverse. You can trade for an established player like Allen & it not pan out for various reasons. Take his 2yr contract/control for example. It's all educated guessing. Chemistry & fit, is not an exact science. The belief is Allen would be effective as a vertical spacer when teams zone Zion. I'd put money on that theory being wrong. With your lengthy scoring & playmaking wing that can get a shot off in traffic at a high percentage gone, I only see the offense getting bogged down as Murphy is not the creator or playmaker that BI is. A defensive rim runner like Allen might aid the transition offense but it won't be enough to offset how teams opt to defend Zion when not in transition. They currently leave players shooting 40% on decent volume open in order to take the paint away. What has to happen, is these players have to be able & willing to punish that choice. Pick your poison only works if both options are deadly/effective. Otherwise with the predictable nature of Zion's effectiveness, it's an easy choice to take the paint away.

Here's why I think Sarr will pan out in NO's. Watch his blocks, it's not pure athleticism & timing, physical gifts. He's effectively reading the play & player well before his attempt & while his positioning could use some work the defensive IQ feel is there with the athleticism, speed & mobility at his size. At worse IMO, NO's will be getting a 7' mobile defensive rim runner. Offensively, at a young age, he's shown an ability/potential to hit 3's & Pels supposedly have the best 3pt shooting coach ... who turned Lonzo & now Herb, 2 prospect not known for their 30t shooting into effective shooters. Herb is my projection for Sarr at C. Nothing flashy offensively but I think he will become an effective 2 way floor spacing C for Zion in time. Better late than never, good thing ZIon is still only 23.

NO's are taking a risk of trading proven for unproven to effectively raise the teams ceiling. That said, I'd take Sarr over Allen 10/10 times for many reasons. Starting with their cost/control & ending with the fact Sarr has shown the potential to hit 3's at a young age over a seasoned Allen not even taking them more less making them, where Zion needs his C to be able to effectively space the floor. Everyone talking about the dunkers spot, Zion is not the typical build., teams already let NO's players take open 3's even though the players they play off of hit them at a 40% clip & decent volume, to effectively zone him. It can't be a spacing bluff, they have to make teams pay for giving them that shot & Allen who doesn't take them, is already a lost cause. Especially when you take away a lengthy scoring & playmaking wing away from the equation that can shoot over defenses effectively in the mid range. People will find out the issue with BI, Zion, is systematic.

Like I said all things are not equal. Allen plays on a Cavs team that spaces the floor well. He's not going to be as effective when teams zone Zion despite all the talk of vertical spacing. I'd put good money on that statement.

[Whole Truth]

I'm entertained. See NO's fans wanting Young.

The 2 main reasons CJ who had his best shooting season in his long career failed to work with Zion is his high usage & defense. If you're attempting to make this Zion's team. The #1 goal it to raise his offensive usage where his worth is in his volume efficiency. I can see it now, Young taking a 60 footer while neither opt to play defense both preserving their energy for offense, lol. Young needs big men that can erase mistakes & that's not Zion 80% of the time due to fatigue & fitness.

IMO what NO's should be targeting is a PG that doesn't require high usage but can be, if asked. A point of attack defender, someone who can take care of the ball & has the ability to shoot the 3 ball at an effective rate. Basically, someone in the mold of Jrue.

All things considered from court to cap, my target is Murray.

Murray lost defensive value playing next to Young as a SG where his size/strength was no longer an advantage but he's a plus defender at PG, where he will be playing next to Herb. Both will be better because of the other like Daniels allowing Herb to roam & not be the primary. Except, unlike Daniels, Murray is taking 6+ 3's a game at a 40% clip as a main option. CJ had his best shooting yr because he was playing off of Zion & lesser extent Jonas paint gravity. Issue was usage & defense. Zion & Jonas 60% efficiency took a usage dip with CJ on court & the 2 offensively efficient big men had no defensive comp to CJ's higher usage, lower efficiency. I would love to know the rate of open looks CJ had this past season vs others & the correlation to his best 3pt shooting percentage in a long career. Murray hit at a 40% clip as the primary with 2 defensive rim runners in Capela & Okongwu. Not much paint gravity n comparison. Would be nice to know the rate of his open looks vs contested as well.

My primary target, Sarr shot 30% from 3 on 2 APG, which is not a bad starting point for a young big man to improve from. They say FT shooting is a tell, he shot 72% from the FT line. Pels have a shooting coach that turned Lonzo & Herb into good shooters.

What are you taking a risk on, trading proven for unproven targeting Sarr - A young mobile 7 footer that can switch with good defensive instincts & IQ who can improve from a 30% 3 ball to become an effective 2 way option next to Zion. NO's are not getting that kind of player any other way than taking risk on undeveloped potential or trading Zion.

Sarr - + defender, 30% from 3 on 2 APG (Jonas extended with TO from money shed in trade)
Zion
Murphy - passable defender with potential, spacing "threat", 38% on 8 APG
Herb - + defender, 41% from 3 on 3.6 APG who's getting more comfortable taking 3's on route to be a threat
Murray - +defender, 36% from 3 on 7.1 APG as a primary option with Atlanta.

I would have extended Jonas to bridge a development gap & to have an offsetting offensive option as I expect Sarr wil struggle with the zone defenses teams will be throwing at ZIon. Jonas would also be more effective without CJ.'s defense, as his minutes with Daniels in his 10 starts showed.

Daniels getting develop minutes off the bench. If his offensive game progresses his man defense is elite. So the team can potentially look to move Murray down the road who's on a value contract, recoup future assets/picks.

Same with Hawk. In the soft reset, it's a must to cash in CJ's current value of best 3pt shooter to a team in need of shooting like the Magic as it's possible but unlikely the team would be ready to contend in the short term.