How good can Power/Rondo be?

[John Locke]

Powe is playing way beyond expectations, closer to what he was projected as before the double knee injuries.

If you base his future projection on his pre-injury form, he could possibly be a 20-10 player.

As he is playing on a team with 3 all-stars and is (I believe) spending a lot of time playing against 2nd unit quality, 15-9/15-10 would be a great result as a starter.

As a second rounder, even staying in the league is a massive acheivement.

Rondo? Rondo is looking like an all-star in the future. The only thing slowing him down is the fact that we suddenly have a great crop of young PG in the league.

Actually, Pouge Mahone calculated how many starters he plays against. It was a little more then Perkins, but about the same as most players.

[Pogue Mahone]

Actually, Pouge Mahone calculated how many starters he plays against. It was a little more then Perkins, but about the same as most players.

Maybe I wasn't clear in that original post. Here is how it breaks down for the Celtics.

Players / Avg Starters Faced / Pct of Starters Faced

Perkins / 4.04 / 80.87%
Rondo / 3.86 / 77.18
Garnett / 3.76 / 75.26
Pierce / 3.66 / 73.13
R. Allen / 3.66 / 73.12
Lg Avg / 3.35 / 66.92*
T. Allen / 2.76 / 55.14
Scalabrine / 2.72 / 54.36
Posey / 2.70 / 53.98
Powe / 2.58 / 51.56
House / 2.56 / 51.22
Davis / 2.41 / 48.18

*Lg Avg is hypothetical, of course. There is no such thing as a completely "league average" player. It is just provided for context.

[LongTimeFan]

Bill:

I hope you are right. And I defer to your superior information set.

My analysis was based on drafting studies and when players tend to make there greatest strides. Also, it is based on the opinion that Powe is playing near a dominant level at PF. Plateauing next year at a dominant level is about as high as I think I can project him without being accused of the green kool aid.

http://www.82games.com/0708/07BOS10C.HTM

For the last season Powe has been a net +11.3 PER at PF. This is an extemely high net PER. Garnet for reference is +15.5 at PF: Pierce is +10.2 at SF. My opinion is that there isn't much room left to improve, because he's competing with himself.

Would a jump shot help him and the team, of course. But we already have the forth best shooting percentage. What does his jump shot replace? It is his offensive rebounding that is having an impact.

I have no medical information. He seems to be moving incrementally better and better.

[LongTimeFan]

Bill:

Did you get my reply?

[billfromBoston]

LTF:

Your response commentary makes a little more sense to me, and I here what you're saying...in that regard, yes, it may be extremely difficult to match the type of production effeciency and differentials that Powe has this year-Pogue pointed out that Leon is having a season that only 13 others have had in terms of production...

But, my point is that while that production is extremely impressive, his situational usage is still somewhat limited right now because his game isn't as diverse as it needs to be in order to become a go-to type option at the PF spot.

As a pure P&R/O-Board type with the occassionial post up or ISO, Powe will always be reliant on having other stars around him or playing against lesser competitoin...

But with an improved face up jump shot-especially the set 15-17 foot jumper and the one or two dribble pull-up, Powe will be able to feature offensively against a higher level of defensive attention because he'll have the ability to draw his primary defender closer to him for the drive, shoot in his face if given too much space, or pull-up when the help defender comes to cut off the lane to the basket..

These types of shots are lower percentage shots by rule, but being effective at them increases Powe's role in the offense and would give him the ability to score in many different situations...

In that regard, I believ Powe will be working exclusively on hi face-up game this summer-as he has most of this year in pre-game and after practice...Powe's set 15-17 footer I think will be near automatic by next season, but the off-the-dribble stuff I have yet to see from him, so we'll see what the potential is there in time...

I do know he works relentlessly and has a very soft touch on his shot, so he's got potential...especially with the body control he displays...

[LongTimeFan]

Good. At some point I have to pinch myself on these young guys.

"I do know he works relentlessly."

Well I hope he does develope a jump shot. His passing is starting to look better, too. Nonetheless, he was on the floor for the 4th period in a playoff game.

How much better can we really reasonably expect a mid second round pick to get? It does seem his knees are still getting better slowly.

[billfromBoston]

...you have to throw that "mid 2nd round pick" mentality out of the equation if you want to accurately evaluate a player's potential...their are a myriad of circumstances that make players fall in all areas of the draft...draft position alone isn't indicative ofa player's ability...draft position gives you odds for a player's success BEFORE he steps on the court, once he shows what he can do the draft position is no longer relevat...Powe is a top 10-15 talent from his draft class, but being "undesized" and injured hurt him...

...Ask Gilbert Arenas, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Monta Ellis, and Andray Blatche what they think about being drafted later than their talent now clearly indicates...

Powe was a top 2 HS recruit as a JR before hurting his knee and was McD's All American his senior year...without the corrective procedure on his knee after his freshmen year at Cal, all would have been forgotten by the pro scouts...

But Powe was a 22 year old going into his 3rd college season due to his 2 injuries, so he felt he had to come out-despite being told to go back another season and prove his durability...Powe then held himself out of the Orlando pre-draft and further hurt himself...

The rest of the leagues loss is the Celtics gain IMO...the trade of the 7th pick netted us pieces to get KG and the Celtics STILL ended up with 2 of the top 10 players from that draft..

...I can't wait to see who Ainge targets this year as I guarentee there will be a future all star available when the Celtics pick-this draft is that deep...C's should be able to find a starter for th future of this team...

[LongTimeFan]

Point taken on the second round pick.

I would only note that the Celtics are an ideal situation for Powe. We offered him a three year deal, we have the best medical people in the world, and our developement resources are the best in the league.

It is no longer surprising to me that DA keeps getting these kinds of outcomes for what pre-DA were considered virtually worthless picks.

It also doesn't surprise me that quite a few of our picks missed the pre-draft camp, Rondo, Perk and now Powe. I just checked Pruit and Baby, too.

I guess a Celtic's promise is worth quite a bit. Yeh the draft is going to be like dessert for this season.