Predict Wemby's career rank on the all-time list

[Tomtolbert]

It's obviously very early and there are many variables. But if you had to make a prediction now after his rookie season, where do you think Wembanyama will rank on the all time list when he retires?

(Don't preferentially pick a poll option because it may include more slots than others. Just pick the option that includes where your prediction falls into.)

[eminence]

Put in a great rookie season at a very young age, with a very clear path to more impact (and was already showing more late in the season).

I think anything lower than top 30 would be a noticeable disappointment. Top 5 requires near everything to go right and is a little optimistic for even such a ridiculous talent (it's not out of the question).

Voted 11-20.

[capfan33]

If he stays healthy hell be top-20. Very easily could be higher then that, but there's just way too many unknowns involved to project higher.

[EmpireFalls]

I have him ending as top 5 all time at worst. At worst. I may get some pushback now, but in 20 years when this thread is bumped, I shall be redeemed.

[zimpy27]

Durant range: 11-20


Wemby is a better talent I think but Durant had almost impossibly good luck in terms of being on teams with great talent during his career.

[rk2023]

Durant range: 11-20


Wemby is a better talent I think but Durant had almost impossibly good luck in terms of being on teams with great talent during his career.

That's a different story than evaluating the player / skillset itself though

[Fundamentals21]

Well, he's another Spurs great... Duncan/Kawhi/D-Rob/Gervin. I already see him being better than someone like Gervin... he has all the tools. If he wants to challenge the Top 3 he has some work to do. D-Rob's defense is all time and Duncan won championships. Kawhi is one of the 2 way GOATs of the game, as well. Wemby has good size and shot blocking in his favor.

[rk2023]

Like a majority of the voters here (granted, small sample), 11-20 was my choice here. Already is by far the best 20 year old in NBA History on the defensive end - and this is with a lot of basketball tendencies & feel-related components on that side where he could use some clear improvement.

Could be more bullish (eg. perhaps top 5, 6-10 a lot more likely as the Pantheon is very rarified air) as his offensive continues to develop. I am unsure how much a + on that end he is as of right now, even in a pretty mediocre situation for a rookie player.

[zimpy27]

Durant range: 11-20


Wemby is a better talent I think but Durant had almost impossibly good luck in terms of being on teams with great talent during his career.

That's a different story than evaluating the player / skillset itself though

It's tied in for sure.

[picko]

This is mostly about predicting health because talent wise he has everything he needs to be a top 10 to 15 guy all-time.

[SNPA]

GOAT talent.

If he plays up to his talent…he is GOAT.

This isn’t hard.

[zimpy27]

GOAT talent.

If he plays up to his talent…he is GOAT.

This isn’t hard.

That's not the question. Question is one balancing up probability of him playing to talent, staying healthy, winning championships, etc.

[SNPA]

GOAT talent.

If he plays up to his talent…he is GOAT.

This isn’t hard.

That's not the question. Question is one balancing up probability of him playing to talent, staying healthy, winning championships, etc.

Accepted.

GOAT, barring injury.

That’s his to lose at this point. He has stepped on an NBA court and demonstrated he has overwhelming impact. Overwhelming. Epic levels. We are taking Wilt in modern era type of impact.

He would have to come up short because of the reasons you listed or others, but those haven’t happened yet.

[Special_Puppy]

I have him ending as top 5 all time at worst. At worst. I may get some pushback now, but in 20 years when this thread is bumped, I shall be redeemed.

So you are saying that you would be shocked if he had a worse career than Tim Duncan?

[sp6r=underrated]

I have him ending as top 5 all time at worst. At worst. I may get some pushback now, but in 20 years when this thread is bumped, I shall be redeemed.

I agree with you the talent is there but to end up top 5 all-time you need everything to go right. The player needs to avoid injuries, have longevity, good teammmates and coaching. Basically any of those things fall out of place and you have no shot at top 5.

Again I do see the talent there for a top 2 career* but the floor is lower.

For me the gap between Lebron and # 2 is larger than the gap between #2 and # 4.

[Colbinii]

He has a Top 5 ceiling. let's all agree on that.

Let's not say we are shocked he doesn't finish top 5.

[Jaivl]

#4

[homecourtloss]

When thinking about this, you see just how hard it will be for anyone to break into the top 5 as literally everything will have to go right to pass (with near consensus) these firmly established in the top 10.

[EmpireFalls]

I have him ending as top 5 all time at worst. At worst. I may get some pushback now, but in 20 years when this thread is bumped, I shall be redeemed.

So you are saying that you would be shocked if he had a worse career than Tim Duncan?

There are a number of things that can go wrong for him, but I'd like to project a player's career without the cloud of injuries. I am trying to make a projection solely on what he has shown on the basketball court.

He has yet to suffer any serious injuries which is important as a body grows, and clearly is very conscientious about stretching, mobility, and injury avoidance. It will happen to him, of course, as it does every player, but unless it is debilitating, career ending stuff (which I would prefer not to predict), I believe he can still end up top 5.

In terms of on-court value though, yes I will be shocked if he does not outperform Tim Duncan's individual value on the basketball court. Shocked. I say with 98% certainty that he will be a better individual player than Duncan.

He has already showcased a better defensive impact than all but maybe 2003 Duncan, as a rookie. He nearly averaged 5 stocks per game and is already by far the most feared rim presence in the NBA. He got legit DPOY votes on a 20 win team, unheard of. We will be soon renaming the DPOY the Victor Wembanyama Award the way things are going.

Moreover, Tim's offense was never that efficient, nor was he a playmaking hub, and this is because Tim Duncan was a human being. A very tall one, but he was not out of the ordinary tall nor athletic. He often resorted to the inefficient 10 foot hook or bank shot turnaround. There's a reason he and Kobe have the exact same TS%.

VW on the other hand? He is not human. He does things that are essentially impossible to stop. First of all, he's a true 3 level scorer, bombs 3s, shooting over 40% on pull-up (!!!) threes alone, and is a walking matchup nightmare. He physically requires a double team in a way Duncan never could, and is learning how to pass out of it and use his gravity to get open looks for his teammates. His offensive rebounding and lob threat is already approaching GOAT-tier. He will score more and far more efficiently than Duncan. A great FT shooter to boot.

He will be a better offensive and defensive player than Tim Duncan. I am willing to make this statement, as close to a guarantee as I possibly can. Will he win more championships? That's very hard to say, but much of that is out of his control. His teammates are utterly tragic at the moment. However, he is wired exactly the right way and really cares about winning.

[Laimbeer]

Can he be a give-him-the-ball type of player in the clutch? Can he take over a big game offensively? His 90 foot skills and size are beyond freakish, but I'm still unsure how he'll rate as an offensive hub.

All that said, most have him outside the top ten? He won't be better than #9 Kevin Garnett??