LukaTheGOAT wrote:Djoker wrote:Despite claims to the contrary, Lebron doesn't have a very clear edge in postseason box score since 2015.
2015-2024 Playoff Numbers
Steph: 27.5/5.6/5.9 on 61.1 %TS (+5.0 rTS) with 3.3 tov in 36.7 mpg (128 games)
Lebron: 29.0/9.7/8.1 on 59.1 %TS (+3.0 rTS) with 3.8 to in 39.9 mpg (129 games)
It amounts to a very small offensive edge for Lebron but the edge is built upon Lebron playing more minutes. His proponents will say "See he contributes more." but him playing more minutes is a result of playing more close games. Steph's teams blew out so many opposing teams that he would often sit large chunks of, if not entire, fourth quarters.
2015-2024 Playoff Numbers - Per 36 Minutes
Steph: 27.0/5.5/5.8 on 61.1 %TS (+5.0 rTS) with 3.2 tov (128 games)
Lebron: 26.2/8.8/7.3 on 59.1 %TS (+3.0 rTS) with 3.4 tov (129 games)
When we normalize minutes, the box scores are neck and neck. Curry is scoring at a bit higher rate with higher efficiency while Lebron has a playmaking edge albeit with slightly higher turnovers.
First off, we were talking about Curry's prime from 15-22, so not sure about adding the additional years.
By the box-score? By most box-score composites they are not that close, Lebron has an advantage by multiple standard deviations.
From 15-22 in the PS (6 PS), Lebron's box-metrics look like the following:
PER-29.1
WS/48-.243 (15.3 OWS)
BPM-10.4 (7.7 OBPM)
From 15-22 Steph in the PS,
PER-23.9
WS/48-.204 (12.6 WS)
BPM-7.5 (6.8 OBPM)
Those aggregate stats are strongly affected by defensive rebounds, steals and blocks which have little to do with offensive impact.
And besides, maybe it's just me but I've never taken a liking to those aggregates. What's the point of using an aggregate stat with somewhat arbitrary coefficients when you can just look at the basic box scores they are based on? Anyways I liked your post because you're making some good data-driven points even if I disagree.
