2023-24 NBA Season Discussion

[Owly]

This is a crazy stat:

Murray is scoring on 46% TS this playoffs - this is among the 10 worst in NBA playoffs history dating back to the start of the 3-point era.

Worse yet?

He's taking the most shots on his own team.

The broad point is true ... the specifics ... one would need to give a FGA or TSA (or similar) qualifier. Otherwise the 10 worst will be guys attempting and missing a single shot or two. I'll grant here that I don't know whether there's a widely known consensus number here (at a glance it seems like to qualify on Reference you need 20 playoff fga for season-playoffs fg% leaderboard and 50 TSA for season-playoffs TS% leaderboard).

Beyond the likes of Corey Gaines (0/4) and Ben Hansbrough (0/3) I can see there are several players who shot over 50 playoff fgas over their careers in the 3pt era with sub 40 TS%s whilst specific years may be better and are probably lower volume (unless only one playoff run) they will have some runs in contention if the attempted bar is low enough. Examples here include Mike O'Koren, Lindsey Hunter and Smush Parker.

So the specific rank would depend on the qualifiers. Now we're in a high efficiency league so relating it to league averages would likely make it look worse.

I decided to check and his present .458 TS% is a little worse than Trae Young's 2022 (5 game) .461 ... though Young's came with a 27.1 TOV%.

[Peregrine01]

This is a crazy stat:

Murray is scoring on 46% TS this playoffs - this is among the 10 worst in NBA playoffs history dating back to the start of the 3-point era.

Worse yet?

He's taking the most shots on his own team.

The broad point is true ... the specifics ... one would need to give a FGA or TSA (or similar) qualifier. Otherwise the 10 worst will be guys attempting and missing a single shot or two. I'll grant here that I don't know whether there's a widely known consensus number here (at a glance it seems like to qualify on Reference you need 20 playoff fga for season-playoffs fg% leaderboard and 50 TSA for season-playoffs TS% leaderboard).

Beyond the likes of Corey Gaines (0/4) and Ben Hansbrough (0/3) I can see there are several players who shot over 50 playoff fgas over their careers in the 3pt era with sub 40 TS%s whilst specific years may be better and are probably lower volume (unless only one playoff run) they will have some runs in contention if the attempted bar is low enough. Examples here include Mike O'Koren, Lindsey Hunter and Smush Parker.

So the specific rank would depend on the qualifiers. Now we're in a high efficiency league so relating it to league averages would likely make it look worse.

I decided to check and his present .458 TS% is a little worse than Trae Young's 2022 (5 game) .461 ... though Young's came with a 27.1 TOV%.

Yes, there is a qualifier minimum FGAs.

What makes Murray's play so damning is that he's the only guy in the bottom 10 of scoring efficiency that's playing with a guy like Jokic. And he's taking even more shots than the guy who will probably go down as one of the offensive GOATs. This is a historically bad performance and pretty inexcusable.

[Peregrine01]

Why is Denver letting him take so many shots at this point?

I think a couple reasons:

1. Murray has the ball in his hands more than any other player
2. Murray wants to shoot himself out of slumps
3. Jokic is going out of his way to get him going

Yup, one of my favorite players growing up was John Starks. Murray belongs to that lineage. He's going to keep shooting no matter how poorly he plays. I was surprised that in the 2ndQ last night how quickly Malone brought him back in. They're still getting wrecked but the team looked better with him on the bench.

Malone should have used G6 to see how the team does with him tied to the bench. And he has to be ready to pull him if he comes out like trash tomorrow. Murray has made clear he will keep shooting no matter what.

The comparison is apt except for the fact that Starks never played with a guy anywhere near as good offensively as Jokic. For Murray to be shooting this badly at this volume while playing with Jokic is just mind-bogglingly bad IQ.

[sp6r=underrated]

I think a couple reasons:

1. Murray has the ball in his hands more than any other player
2. Murray wants to shoot himself out of slumps
3. Jokic is going out of his way to get him going

Yup, one of my favorite players growing up was John Starks. Murray belongs to that lineage. He's going to keep shooting no matter how poorly he plays. I was surprised that in the 2ndQ last night how quickly Malone brought him back in. They're still getting wrecked but the team looked better with him on the bench.

Malone should have used G6 to see how the team does with him tied to the bench. And he has to be ready to pull him if he comes out like trash tomorrow. Murray has made clear he will keep shooting no matter what.

The comparison is apt except for the fact that Starks never played with a guy anywhere near as good offensively as Jokic. For Murray to be shooting this badly at this volume while playing with Jokic is just mind-bogglingly bad IQ.

True but having watched Starks played, I know he would spam shots if he played with Jokic. Murray is part of a long lineage of streak guards that I've seen in my life. NVE is another name that comes to mind. These guys will just keep shooting if they are on the court no matter what

[OhayoKD]

Love how the consensus BITW plays terribly and every post in this thread afterwards is about Murray.

[Special_Puppy]

Love how the consensus BITW plays terribly and every post in this thread afterwards is about Murray.

Jokic's Prior EPM this game was +2.7 this game. That's not bad, but not great. Murray has been the only Nuggets starter who's been absolutely horrible the entire playoffs which is why a lot of the conversation is about him

[sp6r=underrated]

Love how the consensus BITW plays terribly and every post in this thread afterwards is about Murray.

Jokic was coming off of three absurdly strong games and last night wasn't even that bad. By contrast Murray has been **** this entire post-season

[parsnips33]

Let's hold the 3 time MVP to a higher standard than not that bad

[Peregrine01]

The 3-time MVP was doubled nearly every time he had the ball and created open looks that just didn’t go down. His running mate who has a reputation as a historic playoff riser had yet another historically awful performance.

[sp6r=underrated]

Let's hold the 3 time MVP to a higher standard than not that bad

I agree GOAT calibers players are held to higher standard. Said so here

I am very curious how Jokic performs in G3. I do consider him the first GOAT caliber player since Lebron. And GOAT caliber players are held to an even higher standard than the generic HOFer.

So will we see a monster game from him in G3?

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2323609&p=112983428#p112983428

But if you're trying to understand the Nuggets issues right now you need to focus on Murray's play. He's been the primary issue this playoffs. Not Jokic. Who is playing like a GOAT player through the first 11 playoff games.

[Peregrine01]

I’ll also say this: that Murray is taking this many shots is also on Jokic. He has been way too passive for stretches during this playoffs trying to get Murray going. I think he has an ideal way to play and generally doesn’t like getting out of that. It’s part of what makes him great but can also be a weakness when his team clearly needs him to be aggressive.

[Doctor MJ]

I’ll also say this: that Murray is taking this many shots is also on Jokic. He has been way too passive for stretches during this playoffs trying to get Murray going. I think he has an ideal way to play and generally doesn’t like getting out of that. It’s part of what makes him great but can also be a weakness when his team clearly needs him to be aggressive.

I think the thing is that Jokic isn't passing Murray he ball because he thinks Murray's a better scoring threat, he's doing it because he believes that once Murray gets into a rhythm, the team will be at its best.

So then some of what we tend to see as "passive" on Jokic's part is Jokic actively trying to help his teammates get into a rhythm. Fine when it works, but when it doesn't work, we correctly feel they'd have just been better off betting on Jokic to score in each possession.

[OhayoKD]

I’ll also say this: that Murray is taking this many shots is also on Jokic. He has been way too passive for stretches during this playoffs trying to get Murray going. I think he has an ideal way to play and generally doesn’t like getting out of that. It’s part of what makes him great but can also be a weakness when his team clearly needs him to be aggressive.

I think the thing is that Jokic isn't passing Murray he ball because he thinks Murray's a better scoring threat, he's doing it because he believes that once Murray gets into a rhythm, the team will be at its best.

So then some of what we tend to see as "passive" on Jokic's part is Jokic actively trying to help his teammates get into a rhythm. Fine when it works, but when it doesn't work, we correctly feel they'd have just been better off betting on Jokic to score in each possession.

Is Jokic choosing to give it to Murray or is the defense forcing him to get rid of the ball and Jamal is just the best alternative? Shooting badly or not, Murray is the one player on the Nuggets who can theoretically navigate through a sea of bodies.

Also worth noting that Jokic's worst pass type are his skip passes. He lofts it about half the time facing hard pressure and I think that has made the blitzes a particularly effective approach.

Love how the consensus BITW plays terribly and every post in this thread afterwards is about Murray.

Jokic was coming off of three absurdly strong games and last night wasn't even that bad. By contrast Murray has been **** this entire post-season

Uh no. He had 1 "absurdly strong game", another good game, and a third game where he was bad until his team was up 20 in a must-win:

Jokic scored his 7th point on 8 shots and 9 total scoring possessions to make it a...17-point game

Jokic scores his 9th point on 10 shots and 13 total scoring possessions to make it a...20 point game

Jokic scored his 11th point on 11 shots and 14 total scoring possessions to make it a...20 point game.

Jokic then scored his 13th point on 12 shots and 15 total scoring possessions to make it a...22 point game

Jokic then scores his 16th point on 13 shots and 16 scoring possessions to make it a...24 point game

Jokic then scores his 18th point on 14 shots and 17 total scoring possessions to make it a...24 point game

Jokic then scores his 20th point on 14 shots and 18 total scoring possessions to make it a...29 point game

Jokic then scores his 22nd point on 15 shots and 19 total scoring possessions to make it a...25 point game

Jokic then scores his 24th point on 16 shots and 20 total scoring possessions to make it a...32 point game

He's been nuetralised as a scoring threat in 4 games, was nuetralised as a playmaking threat in 3 of those games, and was a massive defensive liability in 2 of those games.

He's had a bad series, not for "goat" standards, but for MVP standards. The question now is to what degree he's "figured it out", and to what degree this can limit him in the future.

[Dutchball97]

Jokic is averaging around 20 FGA this post-season and so is Murray. The thing is Murray had 120 FGA to Jokic' 93 in the first round but that's flipped to Jokic shooting the ball 123 times against the Wolves compared to Murray's 102. Jokic is even taking more shots than Edwards this series but he's still too passive?

I don't think this narrative holds up in the slightest.

[Heej]

I’ll also say this: that Murray is taking this many shots is also on Jokic. He has been way too passive for stretches during this playoffs trying to get Murray going. I think he has an ideal way to play and generally doesn’t like getting out of that. It’s part of what makes him great but can also be a weakness when his team clearly needs him to be aggressive.

I think the thing is that Jokic isn't passing Murray he ball because he thinks Murray's a better scoring threat, he's doing it because he believes that once Murray gets into a rhythm, the team will be at its best.

So then some of what we tend to see as "passive" on Jokic's part is Jokic actively trying to help his teammates get into a rhythm. Fine when it works, but when it doesn't work, we correctly feel they'd have just been better off betting on Jokic to score in each possession.

I do agree with this to an extent but we gotta be realistic here and accept that part of it is also Jokic has stretches where he can't get anything going due to how hard the Wolves load up on him and he hopes his teammates can make something out of the miniscule advantage he's generating. This is just a damn difficult defensive matchup for him. It's what the Lakers wish they had with Rui at the 4 and AD lurking.

When KAT is in the game and not in foul trouble the Wolves can get back to the tried and true Jokic stopping scheme: high strong side double in the post with bump overs and X-outs on the weakside. When it's Rudy they try to live with playing him 1v1. This is why I always tried to tell people that hyper specialization isn't what wins you games, and that the best teams have the most answers for the most schemes.

All teams need is 1 strategy that sticks in a playoff series and they'll spam it as much as they can til the series is over. The Ham defense seems like it'll always work on Jokic. This is where Jokic's relatively poor ballhandling compared to the offensive greats he's linked to ultimately limits him. He just doesn't have that last layer of versatility to make him truly unsolvable on offense vs a guy like Magic or LeBron where your only hope is to mix up coverages and hope they miss.

Maybe it ultimately won't matter in this series but the cat's out of the bag now on how to defend Jokic post ups for the rest of the decade. I imagine it'll be something like the schematic leap that Curry necessitated where by 2018 every team had guys capable of switching on PnRs to try and neuter Curry PnRs.

[Peregrine01]

I’ll also say this: that Murray is taking this many shots is also on Jokic. He has been way too passive for stretches during this playoffs trying to get Murray going. I think he has an ideal way to play and generally doesn’t like getting out of that. It’s part of what makes him great but can also be a weakness when his team clearly needs him to be aggressive.

I think the thing is that Jokic isn't passing Murray he ball because he thinks Murray's a better scoring threat, he's doing it because he believes that once Murray gets into a rhythm, the team will be at its best.

So then some of what we tend to see as "passive" on Jokic's part is Jokic actively trying to help his teammates get into a rhythm. Fine when it works, but when it doesn't work, we correctly feel they'd have just been better off betting on Jokic to score in each possession.

I do agree with this to an extent but we gotta be realistic here and accept that part of it is also Jokic has stretches where he can't get anything going due to how hard the Wolves load up on him and he hopes his teammates can make something out of the miniscule advantage he's generating. This is just a damn difficult defensive matchup for him. It's what the Lakers wish they had with Rui at the 4 and AD lurking.

When KAT is in the game and not in foul trouble the Wolves can get back to the tried and true Jokic stopping scheme: high strong side double in the post with bump overs and X-outs on the weakside. When it's Rudy they try to live with playing him 1v1. This is why I always tried to tell people that hyper specialization isn't what wins you games, and that the best teams have the most answers for the most schemes.

All teams need is 1 strategy that sticks in a playoff series and they'll spam it as much as they can til the series is over. The Ham defense seems like it'll always work on Jokic. This is where Jokic's relatively poor ballhandling compared to the offensive greats he's linked to ultimately limits him. He just doesn't have that last layer of versatility to make him truly unsolvable on offense vs a guy like Magic or LeBron where your only hope is to mix up coverages and hope they miss.

Maybe it ultimately won't matter in this series but the cat's out of the bag now on how to defend Jokic post ups for the rest of the decade. I imagine it'll be something like the schematic leap that Curry necessitated where by 2018 every team had guys capable of switching on PnRs to try and neuter Curry PnRs.

I thought that the shot profile that the Nuggets generated out of Jokic's double-teams were excellent in game 6, they just couldn't hit the broadside of a barn. But overall I agree with the premise that it's easier for a defense to load-up on a post-player than a perimeter guy just because of the geometry of the floor.

The thing with Jokic though is that he's not just a post guy, he's elite from practically every spot on the court. He's the best player at the nail that I've ever seen. That he keeps trying to run DHOs from there with Murray who's struggling to get McDaniels off of him even with a Jokic screen instead of just attacking Kat from a position where he can see the whole floor is a conscious decision by him to get Murray going. Now, the Nuggets can do that against the Lakers and play sub-optimally a whole series but the Wolves are a different story.

I also highly disagree that the "formula" is out on Jokic and the Nuggets. These Wolves might have the best defense we've seen since the 08 Celtics. They have Rudy who's a generational rim protector, KAT who can absorb Jokic's back-downs and 3 long wings who make it hell for ball-handlers to even make it past half-court, let alone try a post-entry pass. This is not a replicable roster by any means.

[Heej]

I think the thing is that Jokic isn't passing Murray he ball because he thinks Murray's a better scoring threat, he's doing it because he believes that once Murray gets into a rhythm, the team will be at its best.

So then some of what we tend to see as "passive" on Jokic's part is Jokic actively trying to help his teammates get into a rhythm. Fine when it works, but when it doesn't work, we correctly feel they'd have just been better off betting on Jokic to score in each possession.

I do agree with this to an extent but we gotta be realistic here and accept that part of it is also Jokic has stretches where he can't get anything going due to how hard the Wolves load up on him and he hopes his teammates can make something out of the miniscule advantage he's generating. This is just a damn difficult defensive matchup for him. It's what the Lakers wish they had with Rui at the 4 and AD lurking.

When KAT is in the game and not in foul trouble the Wolves can get back to the tried and true Jokic stopping scheme: high strong side double in the post with bump overs and X-outs on the weakside. When it's Rudy they try to live with playing him 1v1. This is why I always tried to tell people that hyper specialization isn't what wins you games, and that the best teams have the most answers for the most schemes.

All teams need is 1 strategy that sticks in a playoff series and they'll spam it as much as they can til the series is over. The Ham defense seems like it'll always work on Jokic. This is where Jokic's relatively poor ballhandling compared to the offensive greats he's linked to ultimately limits him. He just doesn't have that last layer of versatility to make him truly unsolvable on offense vs a guy like Magic or LeBron where your only hope is to mix up coverages and hope they miss.

Maybe it ultimately won't matter in this series but the cat's out of the bag now on how to defend Jokic post ups for the rest of the decade. I imagine it'll be something like the schematic leap that Curry necessitated where by 2018 every team had guys capable of switching on PnRs to try and neuter Curry PnRs.

I thought that the shot profile that the Nuggets generated out of Jokic's double-teams were excellent in game 6, they just couldn't hit the broadside of a barn. But overall I agree with the premise that it's easier for a defense to load-up on a post-player than a perimeter guy just because of the geometry of the floor.

The thing with Jokic though is that he's not just a post guy, he's elite from practically every spot on the court. He's the best player at the nail that I've ever seen. That he keeps trying to run DHOs from there with Murray who's struggling to get McDaniels off of him even with a Jokic screen instead of just attacking Kat from a position where he can see the whole floor is a conscious decision by him to get Murray going. Now, the Nuggets can do that against the Lakers and play sub-optimally a whole series but the Wolves are a different story.

I also highly disagree that the "formula" is out on Jokic and the Nuggets. These Wolves might have the best defense we've seen since the 08 Celtics. They have Rudy who's a generational rim protector, KAT who can absorb Jokic's back-downs and 3 long wings who make it hell for ball-handlers to even make it past half-court, let alone try a post-entry pass. This is not a replicable roster by any means.

From what I remember in Cranjis McBasketball's discord, the BBallIndex guys were tracking Jokic's PPP vs specific coverages and the one coverage he tracked under 1.0 on was the one I mentioned with high side doubles and rotations on the backside where he clocked in at a pretty poor 0.80

The Lakers honestly were just badly coached and often panicked and went away from the coverage that was working even with suboptimal defenders. The wolves are just on another level from the Lakers coaching and personnel-wise so it looks impossible to replicate but it's really not for most contender level teams.

I'm doing a rewatch of the nuggets Wolves game after I lift so I'll try to see if I can hand track a few items of interest with respect to specific coverages.

[tsherkin]

From what I remember in Cranjis McBasketball's discord, the BBallIndex guys were tracking Jokic's PPP vs specific coverages and the one coverage he tracked under 1.0 on was the one I mentioned with high side doubles and rotations on the backside where he clocked in at a pretty poor 0.80

At what possession volume?

[Heej]

From what I remember in Cranjis McBasketball's discord, the BBallIndex guys were tracking Jokic's PPP vs specific coverages and the one coverage he tracked under 1.0 on was the one I mentioned with high side doubles and rotations on the backside where he clocked in at a pretty poor 0.80

At what possession volume?

It was over the course of the last year's worth of matchups with just the Lakers and logging about 30-50 possessions per help type. I was mistaken though its only the last series he was that low. In the 2023 series and 4 Lakers matchups during the RS he was at 1.16 which was still the lowest of all help types but the Lakers are ass and that's great production.

For the entire regular season with hard high side doubles it was 0.96 vs 1.14 in iso post ups. I do wonder what the numbers are vs the wolves. I'm sure the difference is staggering, but I'll try and track that on a rewatch today.

[Peregrine01]

I do agree with this to an extent but we gotta be realistic here and accept that part of it is also Jokic has stretches where he can't get anything going due to how hard the Wolves load up on him and he hopes his teammates can make something out of the miniscule advantage he's generating. This is just a damn difficult defensive matchup for him. It's what the Lakers wish they had with Rui at the 4 and AD lurking.

When KAT is in the game and not in foul trouble the Wolves can get back to the tried and true Jokic stopping scheme: high strong side double in the post with bump overs and X-outs on the weakside. When it's Rudy they try to live with playing him 1v1. This is why I always tried to tell people that hyper specialization isn't what wins you games, and that the best teams have the most answers for the most schemes.

All teams need is 1 strategy that sticks in a playoff series and they'll spam it as much as they can til the series is over. The Ham defense seems like it'll always work on Jokic. This is where Jokic's relatively poor ballhandling compared to the offensive greats he's linked to ultimately limits him. He just doesn't have that last layer of versatility to make him truly unsolvable on offense vs a guy like Magic or LeBron where your only hope is to mix up coverages and hope they miss.

Maybe it ultimately won't matter in this series but the cat's out of the bag now on how to defend Jokic post ups for the rest of the decade. I imagine it'll be something like the schematic leap that Curry necessitated where by 2018 every team had guys capable of switching on PnRs to try and neuter Curry PnRs.

I thought that the shot profile that the Nuggets generated out of Jokic's double-teams were excellent in game 6, they just couldn't hit the broadside of a barn. But overall I agree with the premise that it's easier for a defense to load-up on a post-player than a perimeter guy just because of the geometry of the floor.

The thing with Jokic though is that he's not just a post guy, he's elite from practically every spot on the court. He's the best player at the nail that I've ever seen. That he keeps trying to run DHOs from there with Murray who's struggling to get McDaniels off of him even with a Jokic screen instead of just attacking Kat from a position where he can see the whole floor is a conscious decision by him to get Murray going. Now, the Nuggets can do that against the Lakers and play sub-optimally a whole series but the Wolves are a different story.

I also highly disagree that the "formula" is out on Jokic and the Nuggets. These Wolves might have the best defense we've seen since the 08 Celtics. They have Rudy who's a generational rim protector, KAT who can absorb Jokic's back-downs and 3 long wings who make it hell for ball-handlers to even make it past half-court, let alone try a post-entry pass. This is not a replicable roster by any means.

From what I remember in Cranjis McBasketball's discord, the BBallIndex guys were tracking Jokic's PPP vs specific coverages and the one coverage he tracked under 1.0 on was the one I mentioned with high side doubles and rotations on the backside where he clocked in at a pretty poor 0.80

The Lakers honestly were just badly coached and often panicked and went away from the coverage that was working even with suboptimal defenders. The wolves are just on another level from the Lakers coaching and personnel-wise so it looks impossible to replicate but it's really not for most contender level teams.

I'm doing a rewatch of the nuggets Wolves game after I lift so I'll try to see if I can hand track a few items of interest with respect to specific coverages.

The two-big strategy of taking the rim protector off Jokic and guarding him with a smaller dude is effective but it requires the right personnel. You need a generational type rim protector like AD and Gobert who can guard two guys in the paint at the same time. But you also need a guy sturdy enough to at least bother Jokic.

As for the PPP stats, there seems to be an awful lot of qualifiers to arrive at that number so I wonder if it's telling much. At a higher level, vanilla left block/right block post-ups are just becoming increasingly futile. It has long been settled that a defender can be 10x as physical if the guy's back is to you than if he's facing up. Jokic is the best back-to-the-basket player in the league but even he's been more a lot more effective facing up and bodying his way into the paint compared to backing guys down. Most of Kat's foul trouble has come from Jokic driving whereas Jokic really hasn't been able to do much against him posting up with Rudy spying. I also wonder if things wouldn't look so gummed up if AG was more of a shooting threat.