Reality Check: Embiid is, in fact, HIM

[GeorgeMarcus]

Below I've compiled a list of playoff on-court and on-off stats among volume scorers with large enough sample sizes. I'm not gonna waste too many words on an argument that is so clear in the data. If you're someone (you know who you are) that trashes Embiid's ability to win in the playoffs, you are objectively wrong. The only player with a better net rating (+/- per possession) is Steph Curry, an impact giant with 4 rings and 6 Finals runs. The only player with a better on-off is Luka, who (1) evolves into a demi-God in the playoffs and (2) has a sample of 32 games compared to Embiid's 58.

Spoiler:

Steph Curry: +7.6 / +12.0
Joel Embiid: +6.9 / +18.2
Kyrie Irving: +6.9 / +4.0
Kawhi Leonard: +6.9 / +3.8
LeBron James: +5.8 / +10.1
Jamal Murray: +5.1 / +10.9
Klay Thompson: +5.0 / -1.9
Giannis Antetokounmpo: +4.3 / +8.0
Anthony Davis: +4.2 / +10.3
Khris Middleton: +4.2 / +9.4
Kevin Durant: +4.2 / +2.4
Jayson Tatum: +3.5 / +5.4
Paul George" +2.7 / +11.8
James Harden: +2.6 / +7.2
Jaylen Brown: +1.7 / -4.7
Nikola Jokic: +1.4 / +3.3
Devin Booker: +0.5 / +2.9
Luka Doncic: +0.4 / +20.7
Jimmy Butler: +0.3 / +0.1
Jalen Brunson: -1.4 / -1.9
Bradley Beal: -1.6 / +3.7
Donovan Mitchell: -2.5 / +1.8
Trae Young: -5.0 / -3.3
DeMar DeRozan: -8.4 / -11.0

2 main points the haters seem to be missing/undervaluing:
- Embiid gets trapped by 2-3 players every time he touches the ball, which means his teammates get far better looks
- Defensive impact, in particular rim protection, doesn't get captured in box stats at all

Also worth noting that most of his playoff games have been against top tier defense like the historic '19 Raptors, various Celtic defensive juggernauts, and now a Knicks team that personifies defensive grit and discipline.

The Anti-Embiid arguments remind me so much of what D Rob went through. Common fans are oblivious to impact if it doesn't come in the form of scoring, but at the end of the day winning is the only thing that matters. Even if we get blown out by 50 tomorrow there is too much data in Embiid's favor to override a glaring conclusion: the Sixers win when he's on the court. He doesn't need injuries as an "excuse" for anything.

[NZB2323]

HIM doesn’t throw teammates under the bus.

We all know who HIM is right now and it isn’t Embiid.

[QingJames]

What is the best team Embiid has ever beaten with all this on/off greatness?
My 48 win Raps, after he smashed Scottie's ankle into dust?
I mean, if Embiid is "HIM," if he's this good... why doesn't it translate into wins?
Can anyone answer that? Or is it just always Brett Brown/Ben Simmons/Tobias Harris/Doc Rivers/Scapegoat of the season's fault?

[GeorgeMarcus]

What is the best team Embiid has ever beaten with all this on/off greatness?
My 48 win Raps, after he smashed Scottie's ankle into dust?
I mean, if Embiid is "HIM," if he's this good... why doesn't it translate into wins?
Can anyone answer that? Or is it just always Brett Brown/Ben Simmons/Tobias Harris/Doc Rivers/Scapegoat of the season's fault?

It's pretty simple if you understand the data. We lose when he's off the court.

[EmpireFalls]

Jojo is an incredibly talented player who is indispensable to his team and makes the entire engine go. In a way he is proving his greatness by having this impact even in a game like last night where he chucked the ball to every single celeb on celebrity row and had 10 TOs. You don’t win MVP or average more points than minutes by accident.

However, great as he is, he has also had some bad underperformances, especially in the 4th quarters of big games, and deserves criticism for those.

Both things can be true.

[FreeBird23]

[Ice Man]

I don't understand. Embiid clearly is a wonderful player when healthy, easily capable of being the first option on a title team. But he's reliably a shadow of his regular-season self in the playoffs, usually (but not always) due to injury.

You can't be HIM without being a HIM playoff performer, and Embiid certainly has not been that. I mean, there's no argument there.

[LeBronSpaghetti]

He sucks

[Bornstellar]

Dudes who flame out in the playoffs every year and haven't even reached the conference finals after a decade can't be HIM

[GeorgeMarcus]

HIM doesn’t throw teammates under the bus.

We all know who HIM is right now and it isn’t Embiid.

Besides one ill-advised quote after a tough playoff loss, Embiid has always been incredibly supportive of his teammates

[GeorgeMarcus]

Dudes who flame out in the playoffs every year and haven't even reached the conference finals after a decade can't be HIM

I don't understand. Embiid clearly is a wonderful player when healthy, easily capable of being the first option on a title team. But he's reliably a shadow of his regular-season self in the playoffs, usually (but not always) due to injury.

You can't be HIM without being a HIM playoff performer, and Embiid certainly has not been that. I mean, there's no argument there.

I don't see how ya'll can look at the data and blame Embiid for our playoff failures. Not trying to be a dick but it's so black and white, not to mention totally consistent with his regular season output.

[AleksandarN]

Below I've compiled a list of playoff on-court and on-off stats among volume scorers with large enough sample sizes. I'm not gonna waste too many words on an argument that is so clear in the data. If you're someone (you know who you are) that trashes Embiid's ability to win in the playoffs, you are objectively wrong. The only player with a better net rating (+/- per possession) is Steph Curry, an impact giant with 4 rings and 6 Finals runs. The only player with a better on-off is Luka, who (1) evolves into a demi-God in the playoffs and (2) has a sample of 32 games compared to Embiid's 58.

Spoiler:

Steph Curry: +7.6 / +12.0
Joel Embiid: +6.9 / +18.2
Kyrie Irving: +6.9 / +4.0
Kawhi Leonard: +6.9 / +3.8
LeBron James: +5.8 / +10.1
Jamal Murray: +5.1 / +10.9
Klay Thompson: +5.0 / -1.9
Giannis Antetokounmpo: +4.3 / +8.0
Anthony Davis: +4.2 / +10.3
Khris Middleton: +4.2 / +9.4
Kevin Durant: +4.2 / +2.4
Jayson Tatum: +3.5 / +5.4
Paul George" +2.7 / +11.8
James Harden: +2.6 / +7.2
Jaylen Brown: +1.7 / -4.7
Nikola Jokic: +1.4 / +3.3
Devin Booker: +0.5 / +2.9
Luka Doncic: +0.4 / +20.7
Jimmy Butler: +0.3 / +0.1
Jalen Brunson: -1.4 / -1.9
Bradley Beal: -1.6 / +3.7
Donovan Mitchell: -2.5 / +1.8
Trae Young: -5.0 / -3.3
DeMar DeRozan: -8.4 / -11.0

2 main points the haters seem to be missing/undervaluing:
- Embiid gets trapped by 2-3 players every time he touches the ball, which means his teammates get far better looks
- Defensive impact, in particular rim protection, doesn't get captured in box stats at all

Also worth noting that most of his playoff games have been against top tier defense like the historic '19 Raptors, various Celtic defensive juggernauts, and now a Knicks team that personifies defensive grit and discipline.

The Anti-Embiid arguments remind me so much of what D Rob went through. Common fans are oblivious to impact if it doesn't come in the form of scoring, but at the end of the day winning is the only thing that matters. Even if we get blown out by 50 tomorrow there is too much data in Embiid's favor to override a glaring conclusion: the Sixers win when he's on the court. He doesn't need injuries as an "excuse" for anything.

You have the link to the data?

[Chokic]

Ive no doubt if embiid was 100% healthy during the playoffs sixers would have at the least

1. Got to eastern conference several times by now
2. Got to at least one nba finals appearance (Prob faced denver last season for nba finals showdown)

[GeorgeMarcus]

Below I've compiled a list of playoff on-court and on-off stats among volume scorers with large enough sample sizes. I'm not gonna waste too many words on an argument that is so clear in the data. If you're someone (you know who you are) that trashes Embiid's ability to win in the playoffs, you are objectively wrong. The only player with a better net rating (+/- per possession) is Steph Curry, an impact giant with 4 rings and 6 Finals runs. The only player with a better on-off is Luka, who (1) evolves into a demi-God in the playoffs and (2) has a sample of 32 games compared to Embiid's 58.

Spoiler:

Steph Curry: +7.6 / +12.0
Joel Embiid: +6.9 / +18.2
Kyrie Irving: +6.9 / +4.0
Kawhi Leonard: +6.9 / +3.8
LeBron James: +5.8 / +10.1
Jamal Murray: +5.1 / +10.9
Klay Thompson: +5.0 / -1.9
Giannis Antetokounmpo: +4.3 / +8.0
Anthony Davis: +4.2 / +10.3
Khris Middleton: +4.2 / +9.4
Kevin Durant: +4.2 / +2.4
Jayson Tatum: +3.5 / +5.4
Paul George" +2.7 / +11.8
James Harden: +2.6 / +7.2
Jaylen Brown: +1.7 / -4.7
Nikola Jokic: +1.4 / +3.3
Devin Booker: +0.5 / +2.9
Luka Doncic: +0.4 / +20.7
Jimmy Butler: +0.3 / +0.1
Jalen Brunson: -1.4 / -1.9
Bradley Beal: -1.6 / +3.7
Donovan Mitchell: -2.5 / +1.8
Trae Young: -5.0 / -3.3
DeMar DeRozan: -8.4 / -11.0

2 main points the haters seem to be missing/undervaluing:
- Embiid gets trapped by 2-3 players every time he touches the ball, which means his teammates get far better looks
- Defensive impact, in particular rim protection, doesn't get captured in box stats at all

Also worth noting that most of his playoff games have been against top tier defense like the historic '19 Raptors, various Celtic defensive juggernauts, and now a Knicks team that personifies defensive grit and discipline.

The Anti-Embiid arguments remind me so much of what D Rob went through. Common fans are oblivious to impact if it doesn't come in the form of scoring, but at the end of the day winning is the only thing that matters. Even if we get blown out by 50 tomorrow there is too much data in Embiid's favor to override a glaring conclusion: the Sixers win when he's on the court. He doesn't need injuries as an "excuse" for anything.

You have the link to the data?

Basketball Reference. Each player stat page has a section called "Play by Play" if you scroll down, which allows you to toggle between RS and Playoffs.

[AleksandarN]

Below I've compiled a list of playoff on-court and on-off stats among volume scorers with large enough sample sizes. I'm not gonna waste too many words on an argument that is so clear in the data. If you're someone (you know who you are) that trashes Embiid's ability to win in the playoffs, you are objectively wrong. The only player with a better net rating (+/- per possession) is Steph Curry, an impact giant with 4 rings and 6 Finals runs. The only player with a better on-off is Luka, who (1) evolves into a demi-God in the playoffs and (2) has a sample of 32 games compared to Embiid's 58.

Spoiler:

Steph Curry: +7.6 / +12.0
Joel Embiid: +6.9 / +18.2
Kyrie Irving: +6.9 / +4.0
Kawhi Leonard: +6.9 / +3.8
LeBron James: +5.8 / +10.1
Jamal Murray: +5.1 / +10.9
Klay Thompson: +5.0 / -1.9
Giannis Antetokounmpo: +4.3 / +8.0
Anthony Davis: +4.2 / +10.3
Khris Middleton: +4.2 / +9.4
Kevin Durant: +4.2 / +2.4
Jayson Tatum: +3.5 / +5.4
Paul George" +2.7 / +11.8
James Harden: +2.6 / +7.2
Jaylen Brown: +1.7 / -4.7
Nikola Jokic: +1.4 / +3.3
Devin Booker: +0.5 / +2.9
Luka Doncic: +0.4 / +20.7
Jimmy Butler: +0.3 / +0.1
Jalen Brunson: -1.4 / -1.9
Bradley Beal: -1.6 / +3.7
Donovan Mitchell: -2.5 / +1.8
Trae Young: -5.0 / -3.3
DeMar DeRozan: -8.4 / -11.0

2 main points the haters seem to be missing/undervaluing:
- Embiid gets trapped by 2-3 players every time he touches the ball, which means his teammates get far better looks
- Defensive impact, in particular rim protection, doesn't get captured in box stats at all

Also worth noting that most of his playoff games have been against top tier defense like the historic '19 Raptors, various Celtic defensive juggernauts, and now a Knicks team that personifies defensive grit and discipline.

The Anti-Embiid arguments remind me so much of what D Rob went through. Common fans are oblivious to impact if it doesn't come in the form of scoring, but at the end of the day winning is the only thing that matters. Even if we get blown out by 50 tomorrow there is too much data in Embiid's favor to override a glaring conclusion: the Sixers win when he's on the court. He doesn't need injuries as an "excuse" for anything.

You have the link to the data?

Basketball Reference. Each player stat page has a section called "Play by Play" if you scroll down, which allows you to toggle between RS and Playoffs.

Thank you

[dhsilv2]

Here's the problem. You have to sell me on Embiid didn't have as good or a better team in any of these losses. And I just can't go there.

[Ice Man]

Not trying to be a dick but it's so black and white, not to mention totally consistent with his regular season output.

Again, I don't understand. Joel's per 36 career averages -

Regular Season - 31/13/4, with a 62% TS%.
Playoffs - 25/11/3, with a 58% TS%.

That's a big drop-off. In contrast, Nikola Jokic is -

Regular Season - 24/12/8, with a 64% TS%
Playoffs - 26/12/7, with a 62% TS%

Very similar.

Or, to go back a few decades, Hakeem was -

Regular Season - 22/11/3, with a 55% TS%
Playoffs - 24/10/3, with a 57% TS%

Slightly better in the playoffs.

Joel is the outlier. He might be just as good in the playoffs for your eye test, but truly he has not been just as good in the playoffs.

[Bornstellar]

Dudes who flame out in the playoffs every year and haven't even reached the conference finals after a decade can't be HIM

I don't understand. Embiid clearly is a wonderful player when healthy, easily capable of being the first option on a title team. But he's reliably a shadow of his regular-season self in the playoffs, usually (but not always) due to injury.

You can't be HIM without being a HIM playoff performer, and Embiid certainly has not been that. I mean, there's no argument there.

I don't see how ya'll can look at the data and blame Embiid for our playoff failures. Not trying to be a dick but it's so black and white, not to mention totally consistent with his regular season output.

RS Embiid (career): 27.9ppg/11.2rpg/3.6apg/1.7bpg on 50/34/82 shooting splits, .615 TS%

Playoff Embiid (career): 24.7ppg/10.8rpg/3.1apg/1.7bpg on 46/28/82 shooting splits, .579 TS%

Seems pretty obvious that Embiid sees a big drop off in the playoffs versus the RS over his career. The prior two seasons he averaged 30ppg in the RS and 23ppg in the playoffs. When you're the big dog and your play routinely drops off in the postseason, you're going to get the blame, just the truth

[Cubbies2120]

And we've come full circle, Sixers fans who based +- as a pro-Jokic argument are now using it to support Embiid...

I'd be VERY curious to see, from those players you posted one statistic for, a comparison of their regular season vs. playoff numbers. Embiid's performance, unlike a lot of all-time greats, falls off a cliff in the playoffs.

I love your argument expanding to include 30+ players...that would fly if Sixers fans were comparing him to other top 30-40 players throughout the year...

The claim is he's one of the best players in the league, so he should be held to a higher standard than some of the players you're listing here...like Beal, Derozan, Middleton, etc...

Would love to see what other perennial MVP candidate in NBA history had such a big dropoff between RS and Playoff numbers...

[Johnny Bball]

And here I had come to respect this GeorgeMarcus fella so much. Oh well...