Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype?

[Jaqua92]

Because the hype is out of control

[Green89]

I was curious about that myself. Why is his PER so terrible for a purported superstar?

Not currently in the playoffs where it’s amazing and superstar level, but regular season.

PER always discriminates against shooting guards who don't put up the rebounding numbers of a center and/or the assist numbers of a point guard especially if they're the type that sometimes just has to take bad shots. PER is largely just a glorified counting stats measure and I've always considered it a flawed metric, especially when evaluating 2 guards

D Wade had regular season PER stats of over 25, six times, and had one season over 30. Ant hasn't broke 20 yet in a single season.

[tsherkin]

I was curious about that myself. Why is his PER so terrible for a purported superstar?

Not currently in the playoffs where it’s amazing and superstar level, but regular season.

PER always discriminates against shooting guards who don't put up the rebounding numbers of a center and/or the assist numbers of a point guard especially if they're the type that sometimes just has to take bad shots. PER is largely just a glorified counting stats measure and I've always considered it a flawed metric, especially when evaluating 2 guards

D Wade had regular season PER stats of over 25, six times, and had one season over 30. Ant hasn't broke 20 yet in a single season.

PER also likes efficient scoring relative to league context, which Ant doesn't yet do in the regular season, and that hurts him some in the context of that particular stat. Assists matter less. If memory serves, there's like a 0.3*AST term in there somewhere which is part of why volume assist production doesn't point you towards super-high PER. It's very, very scoring-centric.

It is also an old stat that has only so much utility, and we've known that basically since Hollinger first put it out.

[Quentin]

I'll say this. The refs do NOT give Ant the whistle. It amazes me and that hurts his efficiency. Also, he works on his game in the regular season. He tried so many different shots like banks from 3 and left handed shooting. He really worked on his midrange and started out poorly. He'll get there but I give him credit for trying hard to improve. Now he's got to figure out the referees. Last nights game is a perfect example.

[tsherkin]

I'll say this. The refs do NOT give Ant the whistle. It amazes me and that hurts his efficiency.

That isn't a huge deal. The bigger deal is that he's a 51.5% 2FG in the RS over the past three seasons, which is about 3% below league average.

And this year, he's getting about 7% less of his total shooting volume in the paint than he was last year. We'd be having a different conversation if he was still getting 29.7% of his shots there instead of 22.7%, particularly at the career-best 70.5% he's shooting this year. His middle game is bleh, he's at or below average everywhere outside of the RA.

So draw rate isn't his primary consideration, it's that he's a 94 2P+ guy (this season and on his career). That's the biggest thing which changes in the playoffs for him, he actually starts hitting shots, and to an extent which signals incoming regression.

Yeah, it'd be better if he got more of a whistle, but he's actually well above league average in that regard. The .325 FTr he had in the RS was better than Lebron's, for example. Better than Jalen Brunson, too. It's got room to improve, but it's not the major impediment it feels like watching the games.

[Quentin]

I'll say this. The refs do NOT give Ant the whistle. It amazes me and that hurts his efficiency.

That isn't a huge deal. The bigger deal is that he's a 51.5% 2FG in the RS over the past three seasons, which is about 3% below league average.

And this year, he's getting about 7% less of his total shooting volume in the paint than he was last year. We'd be having a different conversation if he was still getting 29.7% of his shots there instead of 22.7%, particularly at the career-best 70.5% he's shooting this year. His middle game is bleh, he's at or below average everywhere outside of the RA.

So draw rate isn't his primary consideration, it's that he's a 94 2P+ guy (this season and on his career). That's the biggest thing which changes in the playoffs for him, he actually starts hitting shots, and to an extent which signals incoming regression.

Yeah, it'd be better if he got more of a whistle, but he's actually well above league average in that regard. The .325 FTr he had in the RS was better than Lebron's, for example. Better than Jalen Brunson, too. It's got room to improve, but it's not the major impediment it feels like watching the games.

Yes, it is.

[tsherkin]

Yes, it is.

But no, literally, in the context of his efficiency, the issue is more his shot-making in the RS than his above-average FTr.

[Godymas]

i give 0 **** what his regular season #s are, his playoff #s are all superstar impact, he just dropped 43 on the defending champions, there is not one team in the West that has a guy that can shut him down. If the TWolves lose a series it won't be cause of Ant.

[brackdan70]

His regular season was a little dull looking at WS and BPM, but he is really stepping up here in the playoffs. At only 22 I get the hype, but it is a small sample size and we need to see how this look in a couple months IMO.

[tsherkin]

i give 0 **** what his regular season #s are, his playoff #s are all superstar impact, he just dropped 43 on the defending champions, there is not one team in the West that has a guy that can shut him down. If the TWolves lose a series it won't be cause of Ant.

Right, but the issue here is one of sample size and expected regression. He's balling like an absolute demon right now, as he has for the first 5 or 6 games the past two seasons. This is not debatable. The question is more, what happens when he plays enough games in the playoffs that being on a heater starts to calm down? Because there are some specific shooting numbers he is very much not likely to maintain over an extended period of time, particularly as he sees better defenses.

The answer may well be "it doesn't affect him that much," in which case it will begin to confirm his ability and simultaneously reflect somewhat poorly on his approach in the RS, for whatever that is worth. The answer may also be that his shooting regresses enough that he looks more like his RS self later on, and so the questions about maintenance of shooting were valid.

We'll just had to see.

[Godymas]

i give 0 **** what his regular season #s are, his playoff #s are all superstar impact, he just dropped 43 on the defending champions, there is not one team in the West that has a guy that can shut him down. If the TWolves lose a series it won't be cause of Ant.

Right, but the issue here is one of sample size and expected regression. He's balling like an absolute demon right now, as he has for the first 5 or 6 games the past two seasons. This is not debatable. The question is more, what happens when he plays enough games in the playoffs that being on a heater starts to calm down? Because there are some specific shooting numbers he is very much not likely to maintain over an extended period of time, particularly as he sees better defenses.

The answer may well be "it doesn't affect him that much," in which case it will begin to confirm his ability and simultaneously reflect somewhat poorly on his approach in the RS, for whatever that is worth. The answer may also be that his shooting regresses enough that he looks more like his RS self later on, and so the questions about maintenance of shooting were valid.

We'll just had to see.

what Caleb Martin did vs. Boston is a heater

what Ant is doing is Ant, he's elevated in the playoffs 3 years in a row now and he's only 22.

you seem to want to discredit Ant for whatever reason. I don't agree with you, there is no "we", it's just you and your opinion.

[xchange55]

Because basketball is played on the court and not on an Excel spreadsheet.

It seems to be those impact metrics favor high usage and just pure stats. Something like hussle and defense are not well represented (looking at you LBJ and giving away all free and easy buckets).

It would be very difficult to say Ant didn't have a very positivie impact on Game 1 last night.

[benhillboy]

Ant plays with a gang of players who claim large shares of winning impact metrics so his will be lessened at times. Jaden, Mike, Gobert, and SLO Mo are all elite defenders through some combination of IQ, experience/ corporate knowledge, and ability. Metrics know the players who prevent scoring runs and rewards them handsomely.

Gobert is gonna claim a heavy share of team metric glory simply due to his effective field goal percentage. Metrics kinda look favorably on players consistently taking and making shots at the rim. Let alone the impact of him preventing shot attempts and lowering just about everything positive opposing teams want out of their offense. I don’t know the specifics but I’d guess his PNR defense is better than it ever has been.

Lastly Conley is easily one of the most underrated players of his era. His assist to turnover ratio and three point volume and efficiency is like a no hands blowjob to advanced metrics.

And with all that Ant’s net rating and on/ off are all ridiculous through 5 games this playoffs. I don’t see any big regression coming with him. He’s getting off double teams too well, his jumper is too locked in ( and even when he doesn’t hit he gets soft rim action for offesnive rebounding opps), the spirit of his play to infectious.

I’ve witnessed two instances of players looking like different versions of Jordan. Dwayne Wade in 08-09 did his best Pre Phil Jordan impression carrying a cartoonish roster to a 7 game first round series and chase down blocking everything. A .232 win share per 48 for a shorter 2 guard on a 43 win team is bonkers. Jordan’s third year he was .247 for a 40 win squad right before he exploded into the worldwide phenomenon he became. Kawhi’s Raptors run where he basically did whatever he wanted most of the time looking like Mike during the championship years. Ant is the third, there just aren’t any holes to his game right now and I’m the most critical evaluator of players. He definately could stop crying to the refs so much but that’s the NBA. Handling, passing, shooting, defending on and off, communication, decision making, hustle, everting is clicking like Dorothy’s heels. Add in his world class athleticism across all sports and he’s hopefully on a road to doing something historically exceptional.

I love the Thunder, Haliburton, Jokic, Don Mitchell, the Knicks ruggedness, and the Magic’s lethal combo of youth and size. The league is in a wonderful place going forward. But watching Luka, Kyrie, and Ant dazzle on the same floor man I don’t know if I can handle that. I can almost say for certain Boston is gonna flame out, the West is way too battle tested.

[tsherkin]

what Caleb Martin did vs. Boston is a heater

what Ant is doing is Ant, he's elevated in the playoffs 3 years in a row now and he's only 22.

Yeah, but 16 games. So that's quite a noisy sample, and the numbers he's posted are all heavily contingent upon him shooting SIGNIFICANTLY better from the floor than he has over a much larger sample in the regular season. So some skepticism is fairly normal.

you seem to want to discredit Ant for whatever reason. I don't agree with you, there is no "we", it's just you and your opinion.

No, you just aren't listening because you've already decided, which is common enough. You immediately jumping to this idea of "discrediting" the player is just an indication that you aren't interested in reasonable discourse.

I am not trying to discredit Ant, I've only said it's worth being patient. His shooting numbers aren't likely to sustain at precisely this level because of 3/4s of a century of sample showcasing that, and basic probability. To what level they will regress and when, that's another story. If you actually read what I've written, that would be clearer. Maybe don't just instantly jump to a conclusion when someone isn't saying everything exactly as you want to hear it.

[Quentin]

Yes, it is.

But no, literally, in the context of his efficiency, the issue is more his shot-making in the RS than his above-average FTr.

Read the rest of my post.

[Devin 1L]

To the smug 'f MeTrIcS' crowd, yall know his metrics are way up in the playoffs, as well as his raw stats, and he's also visibly elevated his game?

Like, he didn't play like that all year. But he did last years playoffs even they his team lost. Has the makings of a guy who saves it for the playoffs.

And I'm a huge Ant man fan.

This is an important point.

For example, in these current Playoffs (5 game sample noted) he putting up an absurd 30.2 PER and .308 WS/48.

So, the "stats nerds" and the "basketball isn't played on a spreadsheet" folks aren't saying different things about Edwards' 2024 Playoffs. AE is ballin' right now -- any casual observer can see it and the stats back it up.

But the original question is valid -- relative to his peers who are perceived similarly, AE does on the whole (the whole -- not just this small sample we're in at the moment) put up notably lower "advanced" metrics, so why? I'd venture the answer probably includes both flaws in metrics and flaws in perception.

In any event, I don't think anyone would disagree that he is having a moment right now, so I for one am just going to enjoy it. As a biased American, it'd be great to have an American player at the top of the game/face of the NBA, and he just seems easy to root for.

[hippesthippo]

He's an American born player and he's very media friendly. Naturally, a star type player who is media friendly is going to be more well liked by the media.

I can't believe I'm admitting to watching it, but even SAS said the other day on 1st Take that is exactly the reason why. Jokic doesn't care about that ish and SGA is isolated by OKC's media policies.

Media Friendly = Friendly Media.

[bisme37]

Baby goat don't care about your metrics.

[tsherkin]

Yes, it is.

But no, literally, in the context of his efficiency, the issue is more his shot-making in the RS than his above-average FTr.

Read the rest of my post.

What "rest of your post?" You literally wrote "yes it is."

Prior to that, you focused entirely on FTr and gaming the refs with a throwaway remark about his midrange game.

[tsherkin]

But the original question is valid -- relative to his peers who are perceived similarly, AE does on the whole (the whole -- not just this small sample we're in at the moment) put up notably lower "advanced" metrics, so why? I'd venture the answer probably includes both flaws in metrics and flaws in perception.

He's caught a heater in the playoffs to date. But also plays differently in the PS compared to the RS. A lot of it is a difference in finishing his shots, though. That is the single largest separation between his regular season and postseason play, wherefore the difference in metrics. He's a kind of bleh scorer in the RS. He's fairly epic so far in the postseason. He has a fairly bleh, notably below average mid-range game in the RS. He's absolutely blazing away in the playoffs.
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There isn't a huge mystery here, tbh, at least in terms of why the stats differ.

The real question is "to what extent can he translate the postseason success into the RS," and "how much of this will ebb away when he regresses closer to his mean?"