Why are Anthony Edwards impact metrics so poor relative to his hype?

[thinktank]

This.

What were SGA’s stats at 22?

They’re comparable in RS. Ant’s scored more in the playoffs. Averaged 25 when he was 19. Then 31, and now 31 so far again. SGA averaged 13 when he was 20. Then 16 when 21.

What was SGA first two playoffs series looking like. Matter a fact, what was his 2nd playoffs series looking like

What do you mean by “looking like”?

[CobraCommander]

I know this- none of the other guys have his upside. We think we know where their ceiling is. We think (or the press) thinks he can be a better winner than Luka or SGA- who haven’t won a ring yet: And honestly that’s all that matters on the hype train.

If Tatum gets a ring it will be all about him next year

[Tottery]

Advanced stats aren't the end all be all. He is 22 and likes defense as well. He can be the best with a little more improvement.

[OkcSinceSGA]

Because basketball is played on the court and not on an Excel spreadsheet.

Sure, eye test is very important. But so is the hard data that isn’t swayed by flashy highlights, or scoring outbursts alone. I’m specifically asking why the data that emphasizes all around impact doesn’t like him.

This is the problem with advanced stats, and it was brought up when they came about. Simply put, the stats we have are essentially the basic ones from the last 70 years, only with overrated formulas that play with them. Maybe with AI we'll get more stats that truly encompass what's happening on the floor, but right now they aren't

No, they do a great job of capturing Anthony’s inconsistent play and below average efficiency. I’m not swayed by a 15 game sample size to completely say someone is equal or better than someone that has been better the last 200-300 games basically.

[Special_Puppy]

Because basketball is played on the court and not on an Excel spreadsheet.

Sure, eye test is very important. But so is the hard data that isn’t swayed by flashy highlights, or scoring outbursts alone. I’m specifically asking why the data that emphasizes all around impact doesn’t like him.

This is the problem with advanced stats, and it was brought up when they came about. Simply put, the stats we have are essentially the basic ones from the last 70 years, only with overrated formulas that play with them. Maybe with AI we'll get more stats that truly encompass what's happening on the floor, but right now they aren't

This is wild lol. Advanced Stats have come so far even in the last 5-10 years! A weighted combination of advanced stats really does do a pretty good job now of capturing a players impact. Adding film studies to capture nuance and context is also important too of course

[OkcSinceSGA]

Sure, eye test is very important. But so is the hard data that isn’t swayed by flashy highlights, or scoring outbursts alone. I’m specifically asking why the data that emphasizes all around impact doesn’t like him.

This is the problem with advanced stats, and it was brought up when they came about. Simply put, the stats we have are essentially the basic ones from the last 70 years, only with overrated formulas that play with them. Maybe with AI we'll get more stats that truly encompass what's happening on the floor, but right now they aren't

This is wild lol. Advanced Stats have come so far even in the last 5-10 years! A weighted combination of advanced stats really does do a pretty good job now of capturing a players impact. Adding film studies to capture nuance and context is also important too of course

Yep. I stopped replying much to this because it’s clear people would rather run with a 15 game sample (Edwards 3 1st round series) to make sweeping claims and are caught up in the excitement right now. EPM for example has been amazing compared to some of the catch all metrics from years ago. It has blind spots (they all do), but overall it’s better than pure eye test in biased people.

SGA was 1st team last year and will be this year. He’s now been in back to back MVP top 5 finishes in an incredibly stacked race. Same with Luka’s many many accolades and huge sample size of dominance for his age.

[AbeVigodaLive]

This is the problem with advanced stats, and it was brought up when they came about. Simply put, the stats we have are essentially the basic ones from the last 70 years, only with overrated formulas that play with them. Maybe with AI we'll get more stats that truly encompass what's happening on the floor, but right now they aren't

This is wild lol. Advanced Stats have come so far even in the last 5-10 years! A weighted combination of advanced stats really does do a pretty good job now of capturing a players impact. Adding film studies to capture nuance and context is also important too of course

Yep. I stopped replying much to this because it’s clear people would rather run with a 15 game sample (Edwards 3 1st round series) to make sweeping claims and are caught up in the excitement right now. EPM for example has been amazing compared to some of the catch all metrics from years ago. It has blind spots (they all do), but overall it’s better than pure eye test in biased people.

SGA was 1st team last year and will be this year. He’s now been in back to back MVP top 5 finishes in an incredibly stacked race. Same with Luka’s many many accolades and huge sample size of dominance for his age.

You seem to be entirely too caught up in what a small percentage of kneejerk reactionary fans are saying in the moment.

It's ok to give Edwards props for his continuous improvement and recent 1st round success... AND... acknowledge that SGA and Doncic are better right now. In fact, I think that's what the vast majority of people are doing.

Why is this so upsetting for you?

[OkcSinceSGA]

This is wild lol. Advanced Stats have come so far even in the last 5-10 years! A weighted combination of advanced stats really does do a pretty good job now of capturing a players impact. Adding film studies to capture nuance and context is also important too of course

Yep. I stopped replying much to this because it’s clear people would rather run with a 15 game sample (Edwards 3 1st round series) to make sweeping claims and are caught up in the excitement right now. EPM for example has been amazing compared to some of the catch all metrics from years ago. It has blind spots (they all do), but overall it’s better than pure eye test in biased people.

SGA was 1st team last year and will be this year. He’s now been in back to back MVP top 5 finishes in an incredibly stacked race. Same with Luka’s many many accolades and huge sample size of dominance for his age.

You seem to be entirely too caught up in what a small percentage of kneejerk reactionary fans are saying in the moment.

It's ok to give Edwards props for his continuous improvement and recent 1st round success... AND... acknowledge that SGA and Doncic are better right now. In fact, I think that's what the vast majority of people are doing.

Why is this so upsetting for you?

I’m not remotely “upset”.

[Drakeem]

A few factors:
- He's one of the more promising young US-born stars and that probably has something to do with the hype from US media.
- Part of it is potential of what he could become as he's still quite young.
- Game is exciting and his attitude is enjoyable.
- He lifted his game in playoffs compared to RS at every opportunity so far, seems to do better with better competition.
- He's a 2-way player and box score stats like WS don't pick up man defender impact that well.


But I do agree that he isn't a top player yet, probably not top 15 though he should make All-NBA.

It’s bizarre that he’s liked for things many are hated for (being cocky, trash talk, claiming he’s better than he is all of the time). I personally am highly entertained by it, but other guys doing this get killed by the media and fans. It was eye roll inducing watching him do crotch chops the other day in Phoenix.

The rest of what you said is fair, although I don’t necessarily agree that box score based metrics slight defensive players necessarily. KG for example is top 5 in that metric and wasn’t the best offensive big we’ve seen, but a defense first weapon. KG rates higher than Dirk for example in some prime vs prime years.

To be honest, it's the way he goes about it. He takes criticism, laughs things off, admits when he's wrong (like when he said he was wrong about Gobert), and in general isn't this super serious, stoic, aggressive guy. You can't really poke fun at or get at someone who's that carefree about themselves. He seems to hold himself accountable, work, and not take any of the back and forth super seriously.

[thinktank]

Imagine being upset that 22 year old Ant made a particular gesture after he swept his HOF idol as an underdog.

Talk about missing the forest for the trees.

[TimberKat]

Face of the league. Superstar. Best SG in the league. Things I’m seeing a lot right now. He’s basically the league darling right now. People talk about him like he’s the next Jordan. You even have insane people trying to partake in revisionist history and saying he’s in the same tier this season as Luka and SGA.

But something I find odd is he’s not well liked by impact metrics. SGA and Luka for example are .250-.270 WS/48 players which is HOF/MVP tier. Ant is at .130, which is literally not even all star tier basically. Normally players at that level are high end starters, to low end all stars. .100 is a league average player, .150 area is typically an all star, .200 is a superstar, .250-.300 is usually a first ballot HOF/Multiple time MVP (guys like MJ, Jokic, Wilt, LeBron, KG etc).

EPM has SGA and Luka at #2 and #3 for example with 8.8 and 7.9. Edwards is at 4.2 which is ranked 22nd in the league after guys like FVV. Why is his hype/reputation so much better than his impact metrics?

What metrics are we talking about here? EPM? Could someone even explain what that metric trying to say and how they arrive at it? Why is Hartenstein rank 14 ahead of Tatum, Lillard, Fox, and Davis? How do you explain Ant rank 22, Gobert at 44, and Towns at 50 managed to have the 3rd best record in the Western conference just one game behind OKC? If your metric is telling you Ant is closer to Jalen William instead of SGA, it's time to look for something else.

We all know Ant is a work in progress with super physique. He has gotten much better as the season progress until the incredible performance in the playoffs. His 3pt shooting took a deep dive after dislocating his figure on a dunk. Also general bang up the last couple months. You can see the trend in the game logs. Look at the season as a whole, he is a top 20 player with the potential to be top 10 (or top 5) next year.

So if you want to build around Hartenstein, I am sure the NYK will be willing to trade him to OKC for Holmgren + 2 1st. I will stick with building around the low EPM Ant.

[Hobo4President]

Ant simply isn't at the superstar level yet, at least not in the regular season. However he played amazingly in the playoffs last year and he seems to be doing it again this year. Shai wasn't a superstar at 22 either.

[NO-KG-AI]

He still makes a fair share of mistakes and bad decisions, but not so many that his monster plays can’t make people forget them.

Your impact metrics can make a dramatic shift when a handful of bad decisions get turned into simple, effective decisions instead. Lets see if Ant keeps improving and adjusting as teams adjust to him.

[eyriq]

He's a 22 year old first option on a contender. Efficiency will come with time. Sounds like another budding superstar I know...

[Patsfan1081]

Efficiency isn’t always automatic but with him it should come with a more developed mid range game. I put him up there being talked about the same way as the Grant Hills, McGradys, Vince Carter…….not to many comps now, Paul George/Jaylen Brown.

[Patsfan1081]

The second dot is Shai.

Jalen Williams is 20/7/5 with 1.7 steals on 53/42/67 +60 against an actually good perimeter defense these playoffs.

To be clear, I think Jalen Williams has top 5 in MVP voting potential. I think a lot of people underrate the guy and that might be why they are unhappy with the comp to Edwards.

I hope to god you’re correct. I just landed a rare auto rookie of his in a hanger pack.

[TimberKat]

The second dot is Shai.

Jalen Williams is 20/7/5 with 1.7 steals on 53/42/67 +60 against an actually good perimeter defense these playoffs.

To be clear, I think Jalen Williams has top 5 in MVP voting potential. I think a lot of people underrate the guy and that might be why they are unhappy with the comp to Edwards.

I find this thread quite amusing. It's like a bunch of OKC fans that don't get enough love and attention and is jealous the attention Ant is getting on the national stage. It's like we got the number 1 seed, we good an MVP candidate, we got Minnesota's best basketball player, OKC is just as big as Minneapolis, and we got some great Williams. What does this Ant kid have that we don't? He is nothing but just a Jalen Williams.

How many NBA team or GM would start a team and take Jalen Williams as the first player over Ant?

OKC, we like you. We like you right now. I had said since the start of the season, if Holmgren holds up, they will be a great team. Can Williams be a better player than Ant? Maybe, but I won't bet on it. Is Jalen equal to Ant right now? Hell No Way and not one single person outside OKC will think that is the case. Watch more games, stats can be misleading.

[Persi]

Because he's the great American hope in the middle of all these foreign invaders.

This. The way the media and former NBA players responds to Edwards versus Jokic or Doncic is night and day. Edwards is marketable; the latter 2 are not.

This market is stupid then. Just saying.

[ChipotleWest]

Face of the league. Superstar. Best SG in the league. Things I’m seeing a lot right now. He’s basically the league darling right now. People talk about him like he’s the next Jordan. You even have insane people trying to partake in revisionist history and saying he’s in the same tier this season as Luka and SGA.

But something I find odd is he’s not well liked by impact metrics. SGA and Luka for example are .250-.270 WS/48 players which is HOF/MVP tier. Ant is at .130, which is literally not even all star tier basically. Normally players at that level are high end starters, to low end all stars. .100 is a league average player, .150 area is typically an all star, .200 is a superstar, .250-.300 is usually a first ballot HOF/Multiple time MVP (guys like MJ, Jokic, Wilt, LeBron, KG etc).

EPM has SGA and Luka at #2 and #3 for example with 8.8 and 7.9. Edwards is at 4.2 which is ranked 22nd in the league after guys like FVV. Why is his hype/reputation so much better than his impact metrics?

Compare Ant's advanced stats with SGA's in 2021 when SGA was 22 also. Or are you admitting he's ahead of the curve of where SGA was in 2021? If you're comparing them now SGA should be better at 25.

[thinktank]

Did you know?

Edwards' 40-point, nine-rebound, six-assist night clinching the four-game sweep makes him the fourth player since 1962 to reach such levels in a winning closeout game — and the first since Michael Jordan on May 7, 1989. The others: Magic Johnson in 1980 and John Havlicek in 1968.