Anthony Edwards Trajectory

[OkcSinceSGA]

I think game 4 vs Suns answered most questions. He can hit 3s and improved a lot on the mid range game and passing. If he is not DWade level yet, he is very close. He is already top 20 and likely top 15 (making the All NBA Third team this year). His trajectory should be better than DWade.

Man you guys gotta slow down the hype. His trajectory “should be better than Dwade” why? Wade is considered by many to be the 3rd best SG in history after Jordan and Kobe.

He was already a top 10 MVP vote by his second and third seasons. In his 3rd year he had a historic playoff performance for two way guard dominance and led the Heat to a title when they were huge underdogs vs Dallas.

Wade’s defense was probably twice as good as Ant by the same age. Overall he was further along than Edwards as a two way player. He was a significantly better as a playmaker. I actually think Ant has a 20% chance at best to surpass Wade.

In all fairness to Edwards, he’s a couple years younger than Wade was, but it’s still a tall order to throw Ant into top 2 all time SG discussions based off one star tier season.

[zimpy27]

I think game 4 vs Suns answered most questions. He can hit 3s and improved a lot on the mid range game and passing. If he is not DWade level yet, he is very close. He is already top 20 and likely top 15 (making the All NBA Third team this year). His trajectory should be better than DWade.

I projected Wade a few years ago but he hasn't quite followed the trajectory I expected. His shooting efficiency is below league average and he's never been over league average TS in his career for RS. Not even rookie Wade (21 to start season) was below leagye average TS.

So probably a little under Wade peak at this point. It's a critical marker for a shooting guard.

In most other ways I think Edwards is like Wade and the comp is the right one. Just the inefficiency drops him down a peg. Defense is not quite at Wade level either.

I could see Edwards being Wade level but it's probably less than 25%. More likely to be at the Drexler level.

[One_and_Done]

He already looks better than Kobe. If he keeps this up he'll be a no trainer choice over Wade too.

[zimpy27]

He already looks better than Kobe. If he keeps this up he'll be a no trainer choice over Wade too.

Kobe was above league average TS% for 5 seasons before age 23. Ant has had 4 seasons before 23 and all have been under league average TS%.

I mean the league adjust equivalent of Kobe at age 22 season was a 62% TS in this season. That would have been 32ppg @62% TS for Kobe at age 22 plus he was all-defense that season.

Ant does not look better than Kobe.

I think we commonly forget to adjust for pace and league efficiency numbers when comparing seasons far apart.

[One_and_Done]

He already looks better than Kobe. If he keeps this up he'll be a no trainer choice over Wade too.

Kobe was above league average TS% for 5 seasons before age 23. Ant has had 4 seasons before 23 and all have been under league average TS%.

I mean the league adjust equivalent of Kobe at age 22 season was a 62% TS in this season. That would have been 32ppg @62% TS for Kobe at year 22 plus he was all-defense that season.

Ant is not better than Kobe.

If Bob Cousy was 1% above average in 1955, would it logically follow he'd also be 1% above average today? Obviously not. A flat TS% adjustment based on era is not appropriate because it rewards people who played in worse leagues where everyone was worse on offense, and vice versa.

Kobe would likely be no more efficient today due to his play style and inelastic offense, whereas Edwards would be even more efficient in the weak league Kobe played in.

[zimpy27]

He already looks better than Kobe. If he keeps this up he'll be a no trainer choice over Wade too.

Kobe was above league average TS% for 5 seasons before age 23. Ant has had 4 seasons before 23 and all have been under league average TS%.

I mean the league adjust equivalent of Kobe at age 22 season was a 62% TS in this season. That would have been 32ppg @62% TS for Kobe at year 22 plus he was all-defense that season.

Ant is not better than Kobe.

If Bob Cousy was 1% above average in 1955, would it logically follow he'd also be 1% above average today? Obviously not. A flat TS% adjustment based on era is not appropriate because it rewards people who played in worse leagues where everyone was worse on offense, and vice versa.

Kobe would likely be no more efficient today due to his play style and inelastic offense, whereas Edwards would be even more efficient in the weak league Kobe played in.

You can make an argument around previous eras being worse. But how relevant is that from now compared to 20 years ago? Do you demote everyone in that era and below? Is Embiid a level above Shaq to you? Is SGA better than Jordan?

[Shaka_Zulu]

I think game 4 vs Suns answered most questions. He can hit 3s and improved a lot on the mid range game and passing. If he is not DWade level yet, he is very close. He is already top 20 and likely top 15 (making the All NBA Third team this year). His trajectory should be better than DWade.

Yeah I honestly recommend everyone posting in this thread to watch middle late 3rd quarter to 4th. Tight game with Suns looking like they might get it with Booker aggression, and Ant said naaaah and just took over at every level and every way:


https://youtu.be/G_H1-ZFMV7o?si=dTE1v6RY5DapDAKl

[One_and_Done]

Kobe was above league average TS% for 5 seasons before age 23. Ant has had 4 seasons before 23 and all have been under league average TS%.

I mean the league adjust equivalent of Kobe at age 22 season was a 62% TS in this season. That would have been 32ppg @62% TS for Kobe at year 22 plus he was all-defense that season.

Ant is not better than Kobe.

If Bob Cousy was 1% above average in 1955, would it logically follow he'd also be 1% above average today? Obviously not. A flat TS% adjustment based on era is not appropriate because it rewards people who played in worse leagues where everyone was worse on offense, and vice versa.

Kobe would likely be no more efficient today due to his play style and inelastic offense, whereas Edwards would be even more efficient in the weak league Kobe played in.

You can make an argument around previous eras being worse. But how relevant is that from now compared to 20 years ago? Do you demote everyone in that era and below? Is Embiid a level above Shaq to you? Is SGA better than Jordan?

Players can transcend their bad era. I rank Kareem top 3 all-time despite playing in weak eras for example. He'd also translate fine today. Prime Lebron dominates any era. Other guys don't translate as well. Kobe would arguably be worse today in an objective sense due to meh 3pt shooting and inelastic offense. But Kobe or Wade would also be worse today in a relative sense, because the quality of players has gone up and that causes them to drop.

SGA might not be better than MJ (who btw holds up quite well on pp100 and TS% type comparisons), but he's certainly better than Kobe. So is Embiid.

[bushybrah_]

I think he’ll be the best player in the league outside of Jokic, and then whenever Jokic slows down, Ant will pass him.

[NoStatsGuy]

I think game 4 vs Suns answered most questions. He can hit 3s and improved a lot on the mid range game and passing. If he is not DWade level yet, he is very close. He is already top 20 and likely top 15 (making the All NBA Third team this year). His trajectory should be better than DWade.

Man you guys gotta slow down the hype. His trajectory “should be better than Dwade” why? Wade is considered by many to be the 3rd best SG in history after Jordan and Kobe.

He was already a top 10 MVP vote by his second and third seasons. In his 3rd year he had a historic playoff performance for two way guard dominance and led the Heat to a title when they were huge underdogs vs Dallas.

Wade’s defense was probably twice as good as Ant by the same age. Overall he was further along than Edwards as a two way player. He was a significantly better as a playmaker. I actually think Ant has a 20% chance at best to surpass Wade.

In all fairness to Edwards, he’s a couple years younger than Wade was, but it’s still a tall order to throw Ant into top 2 all time SG discussions based off one star tier season.

you have a very good point. i also think people need to chill out.

But to be completely fair. Wade had 1 more year in college and Wade was 23 when he got MVP votes. lets see how next year plays out, chances are very likely that Ant will get MVP votes next year, if the wolves are seeding high and he stays injury free. They are on a very similar trajectory right now.

where i give wade a clear advantage is the defense. Wade got dpoy votes aswell (not many but he got some) and was in all defense 2nd team in that year.

[Exp0sed]

I think game 4 vs Suns answered most questions. He can hit 3s and improved a lot on the mid range game and passing. If he is not DWade level yet, he is very close. He is already top 20 and likely top 15 (making the All NBA Third team this year). His trajectory should be better than DWade.

I projected Wade a few years ago but he hasn't quite followed the trajectory I expected. His shooting efficiency is below league average and he's never been over league average TS in his career for RS. Not even rookie Wade (21 to start season) was below leagye average TS.

So probably a little under Wade peak at this point. It's a critical marker for a shooting guard.

In most other ways I think Edwards is like Wade and the comp is the right one. Just the inefficiency drops him down a peg. Defense is not quite at Wade level either.

I could see Edwards being Wade level but it's probably less than 25%. More likely to be at the Drexler level.

how was his effiency lat night in a close-out game on the road?

no1 cares if he jacks up some bad shots in November, same way no1 cares about Embiitch's "efficiency" and gaudy scoringvs the Hornets and the Wizards in December

Wolves are going all the way and u can rant on his efficiencty all the way to the finals

[zimpy27]

I think game 4 vs Suns answered most questions. He can hit 3s and improved a lot on the mid range game and passing. If he is not DWade level yet, he is very close. He is already top 20 and likely top 15 (making the All NBA Third team this year). His trajectory should be better than DWade.

I projected Wade a few years ago but he hasn't quite followed the trajectory I expected. His shooting efficiency is below league average and he's never been over league average TS in his career for RS. Not even rookie Wade (21 to start season) was below leagye average TS.

So probably a little under Wade peak at this point. It's a critical marker for a shooting guard.

In most other ways I think Edwards is like Wade and the comp is the right one. Just the inefficiency drops him down a peg. Defense is not quite at Wade level either.

I could see Edwards being Wade level but it's probably less than 25%. More likely to be at the Drexler level.

how was his effiency lat night in a close-out game on the road?

no1 cares if he jacks up some bad shots in November, same way no1 cares about Embiitch's "efficiency" and gaudy scoringvs the Hornets and the Wizards in December

Wolves are going all the way and u can rant on his efficiencty all the way to the finals

I've been expoosed

[doogie_hauser]

I have always been an Ant Fan, and every season it seems like he exceeds my expectations.

Having said that, he still has some maturity and growth in his game and personality (he took the piss out of All Star Weekend Festivities, which whilst not many seem a big deal at casual glance, was disappointing from someone who clearly has ambitions to showcase himself as the league's best player someday)

However, I can't help but think he has the same winning/Alpha Mentality as Kobe/Jordan (I think his ceiling is clearly higher than Wade)

He definitely more is more than capable of being a future (multiple) MVP winner.

If the Wolves topple The Nuggets in the next round,
all bets are off with regards to Anthony Edwards and his ceiling.

At this point I am prepared with all confidence to say that he will bring a historical first chip/ring to The Twin Cities (even if they lose to the Celtics in the finals this June )

[Larry_Russell]

I love this guys game.

Competes hard on both ends, very Kobe esque while maintaining a more modern usage of analytics to value efficiency.

[FarBeyondDriven]

I think game 4 vs Suns answered most questions. He can hit 3s and improved a lot on the mid range game and passing. If he is not DWade level yet, he is very close. He is already top 20 and likely top 15 (making the All NBA Third team this year). His trajectory should be better than DWade.

Man you guys gotta slow down the hype. His trajectory “should be better than Dwade” why? Wade is considered by many to be the 3rd best SG in history after Jordan and Kobe.

He was already a top 10 MVP vote by his second and third seasons. In his 3rd year he had a historic playoff performance for two way guard dominance and led the Heat to a title when they were huge underdogs vs Dallas.

Wade’s defense was probably twice as good as Ant by the same age. Overall he was further along than Edwards as a two way player. He was a significantly better as a playmaker. I actually think Ant has a 20% chance at best to surpass Wade.

In all fairness to Edwards, he’s a couple years younger than Wade was, but it’s still a tall order to throw Ant into top 2 all time SG discussions based off one star tier season.

Wade was a rookie at the same age (22) putting up 16-4-5 shooting 30% from three. He was a good not great defender at first. It took several years for him to get elite. I think current Ant is comparable to early Wade on defense. Ant is on a similar trajectory to Wade. He has a long ways to go though. Wade was a legit top 3 player for a bit and is a top 3-5 SG of all time.

[tsherkin]

Ant has looked great so far.

I've been hesitant to buy in with him because he's just so unimpressive during the whole regular season, but this is the third postseason where he's gone bananas, even if it's only in the first round. And he's on an upward path with his FT shooting, maintaining a decent 3pt shot, and his defense is impressive. I want to see him do this in the second round, and especially against a good defense, and I'd love to see him manage to do well during the RS, but he's been very impressive.

Things to watch:

In Game 1, he erupted in the third with a whole bunch of mid-range shooting, 4/5 from 14-18 feet. He was 1/4 in that range in Game 2 (during which his scoring was actually properly awful, and Conley and McDaniels stepped up) and 2/6 in game 3, but was otherwise blistering, so it didn't matter. He was also 11/11 at the line in Game 3. And after shooting 4/8 from 3 in game 1, he was 2/6 and 1/6 after. Then he was 2/3 on those middies in game 4, but 7/13 from 3 and 7/10 at the line. He's got some inconsistency issues and a significant reliance upon a decent but not elite 3pt shot. We are, however, seeing how nasty he is when he connects, and given his improvement at the line and how he's sustained his 3pt shooting for a couple seasons, it's fair to be on the watch for the rest of his shooting to perhaps follow.

Fun to watch in the playoffs; he's consistently been a very differently animal in the first round. 3 out of the 4 games, his scoring has been excellent. We'll see what happens in the next round, but he's been great so far.

[firedavidkahn]

And if we ported Ant into Kobe's era he'd probably be 5-8% better than league average. Flat TS% adjustments don't work because they reward ppl who played in worse leagues.

Maybe. Maybe not.

He'd shoot worse in the paint, and isn't elite at drawing fouls even now. He actually also isn't elite at finishing in the paint in today's environment either. He also isn't a huge threat past the foul line and under the arc.

His raw efficiency is only about +3% or so above league average from a lot of Kobe's time, at that. Remember, he's a below-average efficiency guy in today's environment already, and some stuff would backslide in the earlier era. Slower pace, more set defense, average shooting worse in the paint. Hell, he's below average in 2FG% in today's environment overall, not just in the RA.

So there's a lot of that to consider, his playoff performance over a short sample notwithstanding.

ALso gotta look at the other side of the coin.

Ant's defense would also get a gigantic boost because if he played in other eras...they let defenders be a lot more physical then now. The guy is a LeBron level athlete in a 6'4" frame and isn't afraid of using his body. One of the main reasons why he doesn't get called for more fouls is simply due to his stature. He weighs so much more and is so much stronger then his peers that little bumps and shoves don't actually phase him as much and the dude doesn't flop.

[Godymas]

Ant Edwards has all the talent to be the best two way player in the league. He's already being called the best SG in the league (which seems kind of undeniable, only Mitchell is worth contending with)

His defense is there, he's a good defender and he's only going to get better as his feel for the game improves.

[lonzo_pelota]

He already looks better than Kobe. If he keeps this up he'll be a no trainer choice over Wade too.

[tsherkin]

Ant Edwards has all the talent to be the best two way player in the league.

In a league with Wemby, that's probably a little much. And we'll have to see Ant sustain offensive value beyond just a first-round series before that becomes a real conversation. He certainly has the tools to do it, but it's a little early for that particular label/conversation.