2024 NBA Playoffs - West 1st Round: #4 Los Angeles Clippers vs #5 Dallas Mavericks (DAL WINS 4-2)

[Mr Puddles]

Can't decide.

On the one hand, the Mavs are looking really good.

On the other hand, the Clippers looked incredible earlier in the season as well - and it just feels like they can turn it on again.

It feels silly betting against either team, but obviously they can't both go through.

Gun to my head, Raptors in 3.

[BeiBeau]

This is a bad matchup for the Mavericks. Both teams have gotten more talented since the last series. Last time Jalen Brunson was 8 ppg playoff scorer against the Clippers and KP was injured and not mentally in it. Rick Carlisle basically told him to stand in the corner.

Now the Mavs are healthy (the only player coming in injured is Dereck Lively) and they rolling. In the last 20 and 10 games they are number 1 one in defensive rating and number 5 in offensive rating. They are also number one in wins, winning 16 out of 20.

The challenge is the big 3 because Luka and Irving have to guard one of them.

Harden - Derrick Jones (lengthy and pesky defender that can take away passing lanes)
Mann - Irving (Dont see him guarding and there is nobody else for him)
Paul George - Luka (PG got the least "takeover" the game playstyle IMO. He will get his, but Harden will handle the ball and Kawhi will be the clutch scorer)
Kawhi Leonard - PJ. Washington (P.J has been awesome defensively. He is very strong and an annoying player to go up against)
Zubac - Gafford (It will be interesting to see how Zubac handles Gafford. Gafford brings a lot of energy and hustle)

I think the Mavs take this one. The Clippers will struggle to get going because of the defense and lose trust in the offense. The way the Clippers win is if Harden takes all bad experience from the playoffs and becomes some sort of Chris Paul player, making all the right reads and setting up Kawhi and PG. They need a lot of movement and team play. The help defense for the Mavs has been fantastic. They are rotating really well, so the Clipps have to bring their A-game.

DJJ will be on PG13, one of Luka or Kyrie will be on Harden, most likely Kyrie, Harden will try to hunt Luka anyway, it'll be interesting if Kidd switches or continues to protect Luka.
It'll be small ball series IMO, PJ/Luka/DJJ/Exum/Kyrie lineup will play a lot and Maxi will play play a lot.
Huge X-factor for the Clippers was Batum, he allowed the Clippers to go small ball and killed the Mavs, interesting who their small ball 5 will be, PJ Tucker isn't the spacer Batum was or the rim protector, I'd bet Kidd will just stop guarding him.

Lots of X factors

1. Is Kawhi healthy?
2. Is Luka 100%? Healthy Luka won’t be a major liability in switches. Hobbled Luka who is half a step slower can be hunted.
3. Luka is going to play Zubac off the floor early, how much damage can Gafford and lively do? I think Dallas wins in 5 if they take Zubac out but Gafford and Lively can stay on.

[Godymas]

this just screams “Harden failure” and it would be fitting that the guy that emulates prime Harden the most knocks Harden out of his best chance to win a ring since 2018.

I also believe that Kawhi’s body is broken with age and it’s
impossible for him to play to his 2019 form without sustaining an injury at some point.

We saw this last year in the PHX series.

This ends up being the straw that breaks the camel’s back and PG runs to Philly.

[dirkforpres]

Feels different this year with the Mavs. Hopefully the massive roster upgrades at 3-5 from what they had in 2020 and 2021 will finally get them past big brother. Could be Luka's equivalent of 2006 Dirk agains the Spurs.

[The Rainmaker]

As far as the losing coach of this series:

Exactly what I was thinking.

[Yuri36]

Luka at the perspective of playing the Clippers in POs with finally a great team:

[Archx]

Gun to my head, Raptors in 3.

This is the only correct answer here.

[durden_tyler]

The books have not adjusted yet to the probable Kawhi injury, or it's becacuse it's a non-injury...

The Clippers at 8.5 are actually the third favorites to win the title (Boston at 2.8 and Nuggets at 4.1), while Dallas are at 7th with 22.3... i would have thought it'd be closer between these two teams but that's perhaps not accounting for the incoming bets yet...

Series odds is not yet available too, logically the Clippers should be favored but by how much?

[ChipotleWest]

Likely a brutal series that goes 6 or 7 regardless of who wins, and their reward is likely the Nuggets in the second round.

[Ambrose]

Revenge series. Let's go Mavs.

[HardenGoat]

if Kawhi is healthy, say 100%, he will be the difference maker. Clippers roster is stuffed with vets that have one thing left on their resumes. Can't see them losing first round like most of you (or are these takes from Mav fans?). Sixth seed has an easier finals path this year

[ChipotleWest]

Mavs need Dereck Lively back for the playoffs, he just got off crutches.

[Yuri36]

if Kawhi is healthy, say 100%, he will be the difference maker. Clippers roster is stuffed with vets that have one thing left on their resumes. Can't see them losing first round like most of you (or are these takes from Mav fans?). Sixth seed has an easier finals path this year

Kawhi was 100% the last time they faced each other and nevertheless, Clippers had all the trouble in the world to dispatch a Mavs team infinitely weaker than the current one.
Not to mention Luka himself has improved since then, not the least experience wise.

[Mrakar]

Clips win game one despite Lukas 40-15-15, then we get shams update that Kawhi is out for the season and Mavs win in 6 games.

If everyone is healthy i still pick the mavs but in 7. Luka is a bad man and LA has still to see how playoff Harden plays, and all that next to playoff P. I dont think Leonard can offset both.

[PeteyPablo]

Per Basketball Reference.com

2021 Playoff series

Game 1 Mavs 113 LAC 103
Game 2 Mavs 127 LAC 121
Game 3 LAC 118 Mavs 108
Game 4 LAC 106 Mavs 81
Game 5 Mavs 105 LAC 100
Game 6 LAC 104 Mavs 97
Game 7 LAC 126 Mavs 111


Clippers have undergone a major overhaul and are not the same team they were back then either. James Harden is a superior point guard compared to Reggie Jackson and Patrick Beverly.

Clippers also lacked back up bigs. Usually going small 5 with Marcus Morris or Nicolas Batum. Now they have Plumlee and Theiss off the bench.


LAC Roster :
Kawhi Leonard
Paul George
Reggie Jackson - gone and replaced by Russell Westbrook
Marcus Morris - gone and replaced by Terrance Mann
Nicolas Batum - gone and replaced by Mason Plumlee
Rajon Rondo - gone and replaced by Norman Powell
Terrance Mann
Ivica Zubac
Patrick Beverly - gone and replaced by James Harden
Luke Kennard - gone
Serge Ibaka - gone and replaced by Daniel Theiss
Amir Coffey





I heard somewhere that this particular Mavs team was built by some genius Mark Cuban hired. He used analytics but now is not with the team anymore.

Mavs Roster :

Luka Doncic
Tim Hardaway Jr
Kristap Porzingis
Dorian Finney Smith
Jalen Brunsen
Boban
Maxi Kleber
Josh Richardson
Dwight Powell
Willie Cauley Stein
Trey Burke
Josh Green
Nicolo Melli

[sunsbg]

Sorry, Mavs fans. The way Suns build Clippers' confidence up in last two games nobody is stopping them now.

[Forbes]

I have been salivating and getting some revenge. The first two series was literally all Luka keeping us in those series. Mavs now have quite a bit more help. I ONLY expect to win this series.

[HardenGoat]

if Kawhi is healthy, say 100%, he will be the difference maker. Clippers roster is stuffed with vets that have one thing left on their resumes. Can't see them losing first round like most of you (or are these takes from Mav fans?). Sixth seed has an easier finals path this year

Kawhi was 100% the last time they faced each other and nevertheless, Clippers had all the trouble in the world to dispatch a Mavs team infinitely weaker than the current one.
Not to mention Luka himself has improved since then, not the least experience wise.

So the Mavs got better but the Clips team is the same. Gotcha .. or maybe they are worse cause they got playoff Harden?

[SK21209]

Hopefully Kawhi is healthy. Regardless, I think the Mavs take it this time. They have a much bigger and more physical team than the last two times they've matched up.

I'm not sure why anyone assumes the Clippers can just flip the switch back on again and be the same team that went 25-5, this isn't some two-time defending champion that's earned the benefit of the doubt. Maybe Kawhi looks 100% and they look awesome in Game 1, maybe the Mavs win the series relatively handily and we get the post-mortem ESPN article about weirdness in the locker room for the last few months. I have no idea, but it should be a fun series.

[PeteyPablo]

Hopefully Kawhi is healthy. Regardless, I think the Mavs take it this time. They have a much bigger and more physical team than the last two times they've matched up.

I'm not sure why anyone assumes the Clippers can just flip the switch back on again and be the same team that went 25-5, this isn't some two-time defending champion that's earned the benefit of the doubt. Maybe Kawhi looks 100% and they look awesome in Game 1, maybe the Mavs win the series relatively handily and we get the post-mortem ESPN article about weirdness in the locker room for the last few months. I have no idea, but it should be a fun series.

Clippers defense has been what fell off a cliff post All Star break. But they have turned it back on in the past two weeks. They beat the 76ers on 3/27 108-107
beat the Magic on 3/29 100 - 97
beat the Nuggets on 4/4 102- 100
beat the Jazz on 4/5 131-102
beat the Suns on 4/9 105-92

the point is they have been keeping teams around 100 points.

Defense is what caused them to play lesser than they were for those 2.5 months of dominance