Dynasties May Be Over

[chilluminati]

I personally think it's generational. in the 2010's We saw the end of the Spurs, and a decade of the Finals being LeBron-team dominated followed by half of that being the Warriors dynasty. But back in the 2000's, it was a wider crowd with some dynasties like SA and LA, but there were many different winners in that stretch. But then go back another 10 years, the 90's were dominated by MJ.

It seems like every 10-20 years, a generational superstar enters the fray and competely dominates for almost a decade. And then we have a cool down period where that doesn't happen as much.

Not saying this is completely right or fool proof, but we may be in for another decade of high parity. Or at least until Wemby takes off.

[Capn'O]

I believe this is the first time in NBA history we'll have 6 different champs in 6 years (obviously easier with 30 teams than with 8). I think it's quite arguable parity is at an all-time high in the NBA.

The 70s were pretty close.

Code: Select all

69: BOS
70: NYK
71: MIL
72: LAL
73: NYK *
74: BOS *
75: GSW
76: BOS *
77: POR
78: WAS
79: SEA
80: LAL


8 different champions in 12 years is a fairly similar run. Yeah, NYK, BOS and LAL all won a second title in the span, but that's a lot of parity as well. In their case, it was at least some to do with talent deficit running side by side with the ABA for a time, but it's all about general talent cycle and who ends up where.

This isn't the first time in league history we haven't been riddled with dynasties, and they will inevitably return. It just happens. Teams get lucky in the draft and get a bunch of guys at the same time all together, and boom. Or the rules for the cap change at just the right time. A revolutionary player comes and changes the league, etc, etc.

75: GSW
76: BOS *
77: POR
78: WAS
79: SEA
80: LAL

There it is.

[tsherkin]

75: GSW
76: BOS *
77: POR
78: WAS
79: SEA
80: LAL

There it is.

Indeed!

And then Magic and Larry hit the league, Magic's Lakers repeated, the Pistons repeated, Jordan three-peated, Hakeem repeated, Jordan 3-peated again, the Spurs started their 5 titles in 15 years, the Lakers 3-peated, then the Lakers repeated (and went to the Finals in 3 straight seasons) and then basically the Lebron/Steph era began.

And now here we are again.

[Capn'O]

75: GSW
76: BOS *
77: POR
78: WAS
79: SEA
80: LAL

There it is.

Indeed!

And then Magic and Larry hit the league, Magic's Lakers repeated, the Pistons repeated, Jordan three-peated, Hakeem repeated, Jordan 3-peated again, the Spurs started their 5 titles in 15 years, the Lakers 3-peated, then the Lakers repeated (and went to the Finals in 3 straight seasons) and then basically the Lebron/Steph era began.

And now here we are again.

It almost happened in the Aughts too but the pesky Spurs snuck in to mess everything up.

[dhsilv2]

It would take some extraordinary bad luck for either one of (or both) OKC or San Antonio not to become a dynasty by the end of this decade.

OKC has a good shot with all the depth and picks they have...but they're in OKC. Spurs...that's just a tall order. They have one legit piece...getting a team round a star is exceptionally hard.

My only concern with SA is Wemby's health and them suddenly going from the best drafting team in the league to rather mediocre. They have a massive trove of picks though and if they can revert to their previous drafting form they will have no trouble putting a team around him. I think when he's in his prime, the separation between Wemby and the next best guy will be bigger than anything we've seen in a long time.

A LOT of drafting is just dumb luck. They still will need to get guys to accept new contracts today stay there (see Leonard leaving) and it's increasingly hard to get guys to take discounts (Manu and Parker's whole career, and even the later years of Duncan).

[tsherkin]

It almost happened in the Aughts too but the pesky Spurs snuck in to mess everything up.

I mean....

LAL
LAL
LAL

DET
SAS
MIA
SAS
BOS

LAL
LAL
DAL
MIA
MIA
SAS
GSW
CLE
GSW
GSW

TOR
LAL
MIL
GSW
DEN

That's what it's looked like from 2000 forward. Lots of repeat titles all over the place. And that's not to say anything about how often Lebron's team has been in the Finals, obviously.

[Wingy]

Meh, I think the 2 star model is still fine. As a base, you obviously need to have a top 2-3 guy to have a real shot at multiple titles.

FOs need to go back to building coherent teams instead of slapping star names together.

The Heatles and Warriors worked due to unprecedented circumstances you just can't mimic -
- The clear greatest player of the generation team hopping
- One-time salary cap spike

[Lalouie]

It’s going to take another seismic event FA signing or sheer luck to see another dynasty in this era.

the seismic even needed to bring back a dynasty is to GET RID of the 3 or move it back 3'.
they can widen the court by 7". players are covering quickly so that should not be a prob


the 3 used to be a luxury, now it's a commodity. a great shooter like lillard or curry is nullified because every team now has 7 competent 3shooters. who cares is you have curry/klay when the other team has 7players bombing from 3 on the break

[Kurtz]

OKC has a good shot with all the depth and picks they have...but they're in OKC. Spurs...that's just a tall order. They have one legit piece...getting a team round a star is exceptionally hard.

My only concern with SA is Wemby's health and them suddenly going from the best drafting team in the league to rather mediocre. They have a massive trove of picks though and if they can revert to their previous drafting form they will have no trouble putting a team around him. I think when he's in his prime, the separation between Wemby and the next best guy will be bigger than anything we've seen in a long time.

A LOT of drafting is just dumb luck. They still will need to get guys to accept new contracts today stay there (see Leonard leaving) and it's increasingly hard to get guys to take discounts (Manu and Parker's whole career, and even the later years of Duncan).

I think guys will want to play with Wemby tbh. Spurs have also had some success attracting free agents back when they were contenders (ie Aldridge). I mean Texas is not Oklahoma (or Canada). Kawhi is just an outlier in all respects, I wouldn't go by him.

[jokeboy86]

The Warriors were basically made by having a superstar level player (Curry) on a modest contract and Klay on a favorable 2nd contract. That situation will happen again.

Otherwise, if you have a player who is a good head above his peers (like Jordan was) you can do it. To that point, it's going to be pretty easy to maintain a VERY good team around Wemby if he keeps his health.

We'll see dynasties again.

The thing I worry about Wemby is if what he’s too good too fast. Lebron had that type of impact where the Cavs were an over .500 team by his 2nd year and they never got a top 5 lottery pick again. Now obviously the Spurs are the kings at finding gems or stars outside the lottery but some additional lottery picks similar to OKC’s initial run cant hurt

[jokeboy86]

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2379995&start=40

Why do ppl make duplicate threads on so many topics here

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

I’m not getting it. That thread was specifically talking just about the 2020s and really didnt have a lot of context and had 2 sentences in the OP. Hows this a duplicate thread?

[dhsilv2]

My only concern with SA is Wemby's health and them suddenly going from the best drafting team in the league to rather mediocre. They have a massive trove of picks though and if they can revert to their previous drafting form they will have no trouble putting a team around him. I think when he's in his prime, the separation between Wemby and the next best guy will be bigger than anything we've seen in a long time.

A LOT of drafting is just dumb luck. They still will need to get guys to accept new contracts today stay there (see Leonard leaving) and it's increasingly hard to get guys to take discounts (Manu and Parker's whole career, and even the later years of Duncan).

I think guys will want to play with Wemby tbh. Spurs have also had some success attracting free agents back when they were contenders (ie Aldridge). I mean Texas is not Oklahoma (or Canada). Kawhi is just an outlier in all respects, I wouldn't go by him.

Most of the bigger names they got over the years were via trade.

[NyKnicks1714]

The Warriors were basically made by having a superstar level player (Curry) on a modest contract and Klay on a favorable 2nd contract. That situation will happen again.

Otherwise, if you have a player who is a good head above his peers (like Jordan was) you can do it. To that point, it's going to be pretty easy to maintain a VERY good team around Wemby if he keeps his health.

We'll see dynasties again.

The thing I worry about Wemby is if what he’s too good too fast. Lebron had that type of impact where the Cavs were an over .500 team by his 2nd year and they never got a top 5 lottery pick again. Now obviously the Spurs are the kings at finding gems or stars outside the lottery but some additional lottery picks similar to OKC’s initial run cant hurt

Luka was in the same boat until Dallas bought low on Kyrie. Spurs will need some sort of break like that to avoid a Cleveland LeBron scenario.

[GSWFan1994]

Couple of one hit wonders recently (Toronto, denver)... but I do see the Lakers eventually having another dynasty though.

How so? With the 2nd apron and how restrictive it is what makes you think they can have another dynasty. Tell me the blueprint.

The blueprint is the following formula:

L.E = (I.W.I) / W.N

Spoiler:

L = Lakers
E = Exceptionalism

I = I
W = Want
I = It

W = Why
N = Not

[An Unbiased Fan]

Dynasties only happen with historically great players in their eras.

Russell, Magic, MJ, Kobe. That's why teams aren't repeating, the league doesn't have dominants right now

[WemBA Time]

Isn’t a dynasty doable if a team gets a very undervalued superstar, like Curry on his rookie contract? I realize GSW won just one final series in that time but they were one game away from a second, and I don’t see how a team in this situation wouldn’t be in good shape to have a dynasty.

[guynumber45]

Dynasties only happen with historically great players in their eras.

Russell, Magic, MJ, Kobe. That's why teams aren't repeating, the league doesn't have dominants right now

There are historically great players in this era. The problem is there is a lot of talent in the NBA on every team. When you combine that with the variance of the 3-ball era, any team has a great shot of upsetting another team on any given night.

[HotelVitale]

Naa we'll see it again. This generation just doesn't think what the past generations did was cool because those guys got dragged through the mud for it (rightfully so). Give it another couple of years, and it will go back.

To dynasty in basketball 2 conditions have to be met it seems.

1.) You have to have a star player, Top 3 in the league

2.) Something absolutely absurd, once in a decade, convergence that no other team can replicate has to happen.

GSW Run- Obviously KD signing after the cap spike, after Steph signs the most undervalued deal in the history of the sport because he twisted his ankle once and everyone hates thin guys that look 12.

MIA run- The best player in the game colluding with his boys years in advance, and leaving his team like it's baseball to form the first superteam via FA

Lakers runs- Shaq bouncing from ORL after his 1st contract, Kobe refusing to play for any team other than LA, the infamous Gasol trade (but but but Marc...). 3 weird, and "that will never happen again" moments

HOU back to back- Best player in the World retiring out of nowhere

Also MIA won 2 titles in 4 years, and without that Bosh board and Ray Allen 3 that's 1 title. The Shaq LAL teams were pretty dominant but then it took like 5-6 years to retool with Gasol/Bynum--and then that Lakers team won just two tightly fought titles that definitely could've ended up differently. HOU was a lucky bounce from being second-round fodder one year, and their Finals series the next year was very very close (they almost lost in 2nd rd that year too).

I don't think any of these teams were 'dynasties,' they were just one of the best 2-4 teams in that span and happened to win a couple titles. Said it again but I don't beleive anyone who thinks the Nuggets couldn't have won that series and went on to a title if they replayed the PO a couple times.

I'd also argue Steph looked closer to 9 than 12.

[HotelVitale]

Dynasties only happen with historically great players in their eras. Russell, Magic, MJ, Kobe. That's why teams aren't repeating, the league doesn't have dominants right now

I'm not a huge Jokic guy but he was as good as those guys were this PO. Certainly a much better series than Magic's or Kobe's worst 5 or 6 series. Being a 'great' player doesn't mean you're an overwhelming titan every game you play, can't let imagination and nostalgia create too big a caricature here.

[Edrees]

Giannis wins a title. Bucks are the next dynasty and Giannis will be the GOAT.

Jokic wins the title. Nuggets are the next dynasty and Jokic will be the GOAT.

Whoever wins this championship will get the same treatment.

Crazy how social media changed our view of players. Caitlin Clark was literally the GOAT college basketball player. Now she's 0-3 in the WNBA.

Lebron James started 0-5 in his career but he's argued as the GOAT by many and consensus Top 2 GOAT player. So not sure what your point is.

If Clark wins 1 of the next 2 games she'll be ahead of Lebron in her respective sport.