Should the NBA change the odds distribution for the Draft Lottery?

[JonFromVA]

I wonder if the effect of Atlanta winning the lotto could result in some treadmill teams in future try bomb out in the play in tournament (especially if it's a stacked draft class)

A team like Chicago (for example) would be much better off getting a high calibre talent in the lottery than make the playoffs as a 7th or 8th seed and bomb out predictably in the first round

Some teams actually care about things like extra playoff revenue and the games themselves are a measure of how good the team & coach are otherwise Quinn Snyder would likely still be employed and the media wouldn't be filled with Trae Young trade speculation.

Synder is still the Hawks coach.

Losing that play in game to the Bulls (ironically) is one of the richest/beneficial losses in Hawks history (despite the perceived weakness of this Years draft)

On the flip side Chicago would have won the lottery based on the algorithm this year, but instead end up with a non franchise changing pick at 11. Lol

Oops, I did a quick search on Snyder to see if he'd been fired, and all the top news stories were about him resigning. I didn't look carefully enough to notice they were 2 years old or referencing Utah; but I'll stick with my point that there are repercussions to losing that most coaches and players would prefer to avoid.

[Silvie Lysandra]

The problem is that okay, if you’ve “fixed tanking” what exactly are you left with..bad teams with even fewer avenues to improve than they already have? To fix what problem? That March Hornets-Wizards games weren’t watchable? Y’all think that was fixed? lol

It’s just dumb because the league offers so few routes for these small market bad teams to get better. I’d be ok with it if free agency was also reworked into a viable route to acquire talent. It’s all trash players or guys that want a 25% premium to play outside Cali or Miami. The trade market is a total disaster, everyone is turning into an Ainge Morey guy wanting a kings ransom for some random starter level player. There’s literally no viable route for a bad small market to add talent but for some reason this is the first priority issue for them to fix. Dumb

Bad teams aren't bad because of their markets. They're bad because they're run badly. And they're run badly because for whatever reason, ownership feels no pressure to improve. High draft picks to badly run teams won't make them better unless they get a #1 pick with a generational talent in it.

If anything, revenue sharing should be reduced if a team finishes below a certain winning percentage over a 5 year period. At least in that case, there's incentive for bad teams to be aggressive with their front offices and hold them accountable.

[jkvonny]

Nobody has actually addressed the avenue they expect small market bad teams to use to improve lol. You make it harder for them to get draft picks and what are they supposed to do to compete when play-in teams are landing top picks?

Everyone knows modern free agency is nothing but absolutely crippling for these kinds of teams, you have to pay a hefty premium, usually max or close to max for 2nd rate players. I saw this on my team with Rozier and Hayward, a guy that can’t even score a point on a playoff team is hosing us for 30 mil because we wanted to “compete” and he was the best available at the time. The trade market has been a disaster for years, you have to mortgage your entire asset collection for a guy like Gobert or Beal, so that stuff only makes sense for teams with a good roster trying to get over the final hump.

You’re basically taking bad small market teams and telling them to be more competitive but just taking away options for them. They have to draft better at 5-10 than teams 1-5 and not only that but draft better enough to overtake the existing talent differential. It’s very dumb

Pistons had one of the best run FO back in the late '80s, early '90s and the '00s.
Won 3 NBA titles during that era.

Market size isn't the current issue here.

See Minn, OKC, Denver, San Antonio ('90s - 2010s), Milwaukee, Indiana, Sacramento (up and coming for years to come) , Portland (minus the last few seasons), Utah (minus the last couple of seasons) etc. Won NBA titles as well (mid/small markets).

Its all about FO work and scouting/player development as well.

[KembaWalker]

The problem is that okay, if you’ve “fixed tanking” what exactly are you left with..bad teams with even fewer avenues to improve than they already have? To fix what problem? That March Hornets-Wizards games weren’t watchable? Y’all think that was fixed? lol

It’s just dumb because the league offers so few routes for these small market bad teams to get better. I’d be ok with it if free agency was also reworked into a viable route to acquire talent. It’s all trash players or guys that want a 25% premium to play outside Cali or Miami. The trade market is a total disaster, everyone is turning into an Ainge Morey guy wanting a kings ransom for some random starter level player. There’s literally no viable route for a bad small market to add talent but for some reason this is the first priority issue for them to fix. Dumb

Bad teams aren't bad because of their markets. They're bad because they're run badly. And they're run badly because for whatever reason, ownership feels no pressure to improve. High draft picks to badly run teams won't make them better unless they get a #1 pick with a generational talent in it.

If anything, revenue sharing should be reduced if a team finishes below a certain winning percentage over a 5 year period. At least in that case, there's incentive for bad teams to be aggressive with their front offices and hold them accountable.

I dont have much to say other than that i disagree. I don’t think the Spurs went from being well managed for 20 years to garbage for years then now suddenly they’re good again because they got Wemby. But that’s what the narrative will be. Lottery luck is basically the only thing that matters. Even a team like the Pacers that looks like it was built organically is basically still living off one good draft pick they made like 15 years ago with PG.

[amcoolio]

Working as intended. I don't see a big difference between the bottom 5-8 teams. Hopefully teams will see these results and think twice about tanking for the very bottom.

Also, outside of the rare generational #1 pick (like Wemby), there are no guarantees. Invest in your scouting teams and pick the best player in the draft at the #5 pick.

Warriors invested and still picked Wiseman

The NBA draft is 99% luck. Nobody would be saying Charlotte or Detroit is incompetent if they won the Wemby draft. Meanwhile if San Antonio got the 2nd pick and had Scoot on this roster instead of Wemby then everyone would be saying that Pop should retire and San Antonio would be in the sh*tter right now with the worst future of all the NBA teams. Actually, San Antonio would probably be one of the worst franchises in sports over the last 30 years had they not won 3 lucky lotteries with generational talent

[Zeno]

Working as intended. I don't see a big difference between the bottom 5-8 teams. Hopefully teams will see these results and think twice about tanking for the very bottom.

Also, outside of the rare generational #1 pick (like Wemby), there are no guarantees. Invest in your scouting teams and pick the best player in the draft at the #5 pick.

Warriors invested and still picked Wiseman

The NBA draft is 99% luck. Nobody would be saying Charlotte or Detroit is incompetent if they won the Wemby draft. Meanwhile if San Antonio got the 2nd pick and had Scoot on this roster instead of Wemby then everyone would be saying that Pop should retire and San Antonio would be in the sh*tter right now with the worst future of all the NBA teams. Actually, San Antonio would probably be one of the worst franchises in sports over the last 30 years had they not won 3 lucky lotteries with generational talent

There would still be the Wizards.

[brackdan70]

I'm basing this solely off of the Pistons being screwed into the 5th pick again for the 3rd straight year

The worst team in the NBA having the highest odds for the 5th pick is kinda crazy

Maybe the NBA can reach a compromise btwn what it was prior to the change and the way its distributed now.

I like how it is. It was changed a few years back to stop rewarding poor management or tanking.

[brackdan70]

I'm basing this solely off of the Pistons being screwed into the 5th pick again for the 3rd straight year

The worst team in the NBA having the highest odds for the 5th pick is kinda crazy

Maybe the NBA can reach a compromise btwn what it was prior to the change and the way its distributed now.

I like how it is. It was changed a few years back to stop rewarding poor management or tanking.

[brackdan70]

A team that has been worst in the league for three years running and struggles to win over 10 games should not be picking 5th in the draft. For three years in a row. That's just dumb.

There is a reason the foundation of player drafts is based on giving the worst team from the previous season the top pick of the litter going into the next. The NBA has lost its way here.

.

They did have the number one pick in 2021.
7 in 2020, 5 in 2022 and 2023.
Look who they drafted lol. I don’t think they can be trusted with a number one pick.
They could have built a solid young core.
Tyrese Maxey or Halliburton, Evan Mobley, Jalen Williams, Derick Lively. Or a number of other better guys than they picked. Can’t be expected to nail every draft but you can’t miss on 4 top 10 picks in a row.

[cgf]

No, the flattened lottery odds have been working exactly as intended and are one of the main reasons that tanking is no longer a major issue in the NBA.

[SkyBill40]

This Suns fan says no. It's better how it is than how it was. Purposely losing to increase odds should never be rewarded.

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