FarBeyondDriven 2024 Draft HQ

[FarBeyondDriven]

4/8/24 Big Board

Sarr
Holland
Yang
Collier
Knecht
Carrington
McCain
Grant-Foster
George
Risacher
Buzelis
Castle
Dillingham
Carter
Williams
Watkins
Topic
Sheppard
Clingan
Edwards
Ighodaro
Ware
Salaun
da Silva
Bona
Ivisic
Filipowski
Missi
Walter
Klintman

[FarBeyondDriven]

3/10

There are several guys I have with 1st round grades but there's only 30 picks. Ingram, Ware, Ajinca, Carter, Boswell, Clingan, Mgbako Stojakovic and Scheierman in particular.

[Chuck Everett]

3/10

There are several guys I have with 1st round grades but there's only 30 picks. Ingram, Ware, Ajinca, Carter, Boswell, Clingan, Mgbako Stojakovic and Scheierman in particular.

You think Jamir Watkins can grade out as a mid-first rounder? I think he's probably looking at 25-35, but his play this year has been inspired on a weak FSU team (poor guard play).

[FarBeyondDriven]

3/10

There are several guys I have with 1st round grades but there's only 30 picks. Ingram, Ware, Ajinca, Carter, Boswell, Clingan, Mgbako Stojakovic and Scheierman in particular.

You think Jamir Watkins can grade out as a mid-first rounder? I think he's probably looking at 25-35, but his play this year has been inspired on a weak FSU team (poor guard play).

yes because he's imho capable of being in an NBA rotation as a two-way player right away due to his combo of size/athleticism/skill and the position he plays. Anywhere from mid-first to where you have him he could go. Nothing would shock me. A lot of the lottery talents look like they'll need a couple of seasons of seasoning. Like today, Watkins is a better player than Cody Williams and he can help an NBA team win games. It will take another year for Cody to catch up. But Cody is taller and longer and might have more upside and his brother is killing it in the league so teams will probably draft him over Watkins despite this. But I really don't think there'll be much difference between the two player 5 years from now. I'm not sure if that's an indictment on Williams or because Watkins is that good.

[FarBeyondDriven]

3/14

Moved Furphy completely out of the first round. He needs more seasoning. In conference play, with McCullars being out many games and the opportunity for Furphy to step up and produce, he's shot 26% from three in the last 11 games and Kansas has lost several games. Furphy needs to add size, gain aggression and work on his handle and shot. If he doesn't improve in these areas he jeopardizes going in next year's first round too

[FarBeyondDriven]

3/22/24 update

dropped Cody Williams to the late first. I'm done making excuses for him and giving him the benefit of the doubt. He's too passive. I'm not talking physically or skillset wise, but he doesn't look or play like his brother at all. It kinda makes me think like he plays basketball because it was expected of him not because he loves it. I get Andrew Wiggins vibes minus the skill and athleticism

Dropped Missi to the late first. I see way too many college centers scoring on him with ease to be high on him any longer. Since he can't shoot threes he's basically going to be a screen setter and rim runner with occasional put backs unless he develops and I'm not seeing the motor or BBIQ to have much faith in that. But simply because he's 6'11" and has some wiggle and ability to put the ball on the deck there's still enough promise to be somewhat optimistic.

Moved Dillingham to the end of lottery. He may never be a starting point guard on a playoff team but he's a better prospect than Sexton imo so deserves to be in the lottery. He shares all the same flaws as Sexton and is bigger knucklehead but he's a more skilled scorer and better passer. There's a chance he moves up if he can prove he can do this at the combine and depending on his measurements. He's quick enough and shown some flashes being able to pest ball carriers on the perimeter. It all collapses rather easily the moment anyone puts even a semblance of a move on him but maybe he can be coached up?

Dropped Sheppard a bit. The bad stretch of games could be a motivating factor to get him to play with more aggression which could give us an indication he can play backup PG rather than combo guard which would keep him in the middle of the first. He might fall depending on measurements and how he looks at the combine. I don't see how he could rise.

Carter moves up because after seeing him on the floor against guys I'm more familiar with my concerns about him (size and athleticism) are now alleviated. He's a guy that could move up further. I'm pretty certain he has starting PG ability

Moved da Silva into the first round. I find him so similar to Cam Johnson and feel like he'll play the exact same role as him and that's worth a first rounder. A 3 and D connective passer who can do a little bit of everything. I'm interested in how he measures and performs at the combine. He could move up

Moved Bona up above Missi because I think he's better at the few things Missi can do and he's a much better passer and shot blocker

[The-Power]

3/22/24 Big Board

1. Sarr
2. Risacher
3. Holland
4. Yang
5. Topic
6. Carrington
7. Castle
8. Salaun
9. George
10. McCain
11. Buzelis
12. Collier
13. Knecht
14. Dillingham
15. Carter
16. Watkins
17. Filipowski
18. Sheppard
19. Walter
20. Ighodaro
21. Bona
22. Klintman
23. Smith
24. Perrin
25. Williams
26. da Silva
27. Missi
28. Ingram
29. Mgbako
30. Mitchell, Ajay

Quoted for the record.

[FarBeyondDriven]

I try mocks but then remember there's going to likely be a lot of trades this summer which will directly affect draft picks and needs so why bother. I'm just going to wait until we get closer to the draft and after the season.

[FarBeyondDriven]

I think I've come to the realization that I have to get with the times and accept that flawed prospects I historically have been lower on need to be ranked higher. I'm talking about a specific type of player; the high usage, turnover prone, chucking, no defense playing guards. Nothing has changed about their outcome for me. I don't think any of them can lead their teams to a title. But unlike eras past, when their defense and turnovers would keep them off the floor, today's coaches don't care and give them as much usage as they can handle. So these guys will play and they will produce offensively even at the detriment of their team's ultimate success. So rankings for guys I've historically been lower on need to be in line with the times. Defense is simply not a concern like it used to be for decision makers and coaches. This will affect guys like Dillingham, Knecht, Sheppard and McCain the most.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Post Declare Deadline Big Board 4/30/24

Dillingham
Sarr
Holland
Knecht
McCain
Collier
Carter
Carrington
Risacher
Castle
Williams
George
Buzelis
Topic
Sheppard
Clingan
Edwards
Watkins
Filipowski
Grant-Foster
Salaun
da Silva
Ighodaro
Ware
Bona
Furphy
Missi
Walter
Dadiet
Klintman

[The-Power]

Post Declare Deadline Big Board 4/30/24

Dillingham
Sarr
Holland
Knecht
McCain
Collier
Carter
Carrington
Risacher
Castle
Williams
George
Buzelis
Topic
Sheppard
Clingan
Edwards
Watkins
Filipowski
Grant-Foster
Salaun
da Silva
Ighodaro
Ware
Bona
Furphy
Missi
Walter
Dadiet
Klintman

For someone so confident in their assessment from the start, that sure is a ton of movement within a single month during which there wasn't even any new information coming out in the form of on-court play or measurements. What are the huge swings for some of the players about?

[FarBeyondDriven]

Post Declare Deadline Big Board 4/30/24

Dillingham
Sarr
Holland
Knecht
McCain
Collier
Carter
Carrington
Risacher
Castle
Williams
George
Buzelis
Topic
Sheppard
Clingan
Edwards
Watkins
Filipowski
Grant-Foster
Salaun
da Silva
Ighodaro
Ware
Bona
Furphy
Missi
Walter
Dadiet
Klintman

For someone so confident in their assessment from the start, that sure is a ton of movement within a single month during which there wasn't even any new information coming out in the form of on-court play or measurements. What are the huge swings for some of the players about?

where are you pulling this from? My Big Boards and player evaluations change right up until draft night. Movement happens as I notice trends and as more information comes in. Isn't this how everyone operates? Are you and Clyde so triggered and in such a rush to try and mock me that you're checking in on my Big Board in April? Good Lord

I literally opined (on this very page in fact) why my process has changed and why there'd be movement. To repeat:

I've never liked high usage chuckers that play no defense. I don't believe you can win championships with this type. I've had a difficult time accepting that any coach would play these guys let alone start, let alone be high usage and run the show. So I've had these guys ranked lower than consensus historically. But watching the tournament and these playoffs I've come to the conclusion that NBA teams don't care about the same things as I do and this mindset is antiquated. They'll live with awful defense as long as the ball is going in the basket. Maybe they think outscoring teams is possible or that their coaching acumen can scheme this issue away? Whatever the case, unless I want egg on my face, I need to change the way I evaluate prospects and star ranking guys that are aggressive and on-ball higher and off-ball only guys lower.

The only "ton of movement" is me reconciling with this and forcing myself to change my mindset which I'm finding is a difficult process and I'm still struggling with it and will likely continue to struggle with it going forward. It changes everything. I've evaluated prospects a certain way for decades and now I'm changing drastically so it makes sense that rankings would changed drastically.

I'm assuming you're referring to Dillingham in particular though. This affects him the most. I'm now convinced despite my bias and how I think it SHOULD go, there's a greater chance that he will start and be high usage and if he does, he'll be the ROY and a potential future star. If guys like Maxey and Brunson can do it, Dillingham, who I find even more talented offensively than them, should as well. I now rank Dillingham higher than I had Trae Young. If I'm right and he's allowed to start, he will be vying for all-nba someday imo.

Basically, if I feel like a guy is going to have the offense run through him at the next level, either he's the primary guy (Luka, Brunson, Maxey, Tatum, Jokic, Murray, Banchero) or at least the secondary guy (Wagner, Brown) with sets run through him or in ISO, than he's moved up. if I have doubts, they've moved down. Subject to change of course. This accounts for most of the movement.

Hopefully at the combine I'll see more evidence of these established roles and how teams view these prospects. I'll get a better sense of what their potential is as either a Primary, Secondary or Role player at the next level. With how all over the place this draft class is, my Big Board could move quite a bit still.