CptCrunch 2024 Big Board

[CptCrunch]

2024 Big Board v1 (5/18):

Tier 1 - Franchise Changing Talent
None

Tier 2 - Lower Tier Franchise Player
None

Tier 3 - All-Star Median Outcome
None

Tier 4 - Role Player Median Outcome
1. Reed
2. Matas
3. Risacher

Tier 5 - Role Player Good (80th Percentile) Outcome
4. Clingan

Tier 6 - Resuming with median bench role player outcomes
6. Kneckt
7. Bub
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Interrupting programming with wild bags of Europe sub-tier
8. Topic
9. Salaun
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10. Dillingham
11. JaKobe
12. Holland
13. Cody
14. Castle

Do not think is good:
Edey (late first)

[CptCrunch]

Earlier years: viewtopic.php?f=38&t=2291507

Pretty bad misses last year. Lost out big on underestimating the menace twins. I'm gonna calculate my Kendall's W to assess my 2021, 2022, 2023 performance with the top 10 picks with respect to actual performance (my subjective actual ranks)

2021: Kendall's W: 0.61. Basically nailed the draft including discount deep busts. Got the top right but missed on the ordering in the middle resulting in a low score.

2022: Kendall's W: 0.84. Did very well at the top nailing all 3 picks in the correct order. Missed on Dyson Daniels. Trevor Keels was a huge miss at 11 (but I'm only counting to 10 here).

2023: Kendall's W: 0.69. Pretty bad mock, but only got the ordering of badness right on the tail.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Earlier years: viewtopic.php?f=38&t=2291507

Pretty bad misses last year. Lost out big on underestimating the menace twins. I'm gonna calculate my Kendall's W to assess my 2021, 2022, 2023 performance with the top 10 picks with respect to actual performance (my subjective actual ranks)

2021: Kendall's W: 0.61. Basically nailed the draft including discount deep busts. Got the top right but missed on the ordering in the middle resulting in a low score.

2022: Kendall's W: 0.84. Did very well at the top nailing all 3 picks in the correct order. Missed on Dyson Daniels. Trevor Keels was a huge miss at 11 (but I'm only counting to 10 here).

2023: Kendall's W: 0.69. Pretty bad mock, but only got the ordering of badness right on the tail.

I wouldn't know where to begin with Kendall. What are you basing success on? What are the variables? What are you comparing to? I feel like top 10 won't provide an accurate picture. Why not at least do the lottery or the full first round? If you have time and think of it, can you do my 2024 next year at about this time? If it's time consuming don't worry about it

[CptCrunch]

Earlier years: viewtopic.php?f=38&t=2291507

Pretty bad misses last year. Lost out big on underestimating the menace twins. I'm gonna calculate my Kendall's W to assess my 2021, 2022, 2023 performance with the top 10 picks with respect to actual performance (my subjective actual ranks)

2021: Kendall's W: 0.61. Basically nailed the draft including discount deep busts. Got the top right but missed on the ordering in the middle resulting in a low score.

2022: Kendall's W: 0.84. Did very well at the top nailing all 3 picks in the correct order. Missed on Dyson Daniels. Trevor Keels was a huge miss at 11 (but I'm only counting to 10 here).

2023: Kendall's W: 0.69. Pretty bad mock, but only got the ordering of badness right on the tail.

I wouldn't know where to begin with Kendall. What are you basing success on? What are the variables? What are you comparing to? I feel like top 10 won't provide an accurate picture. Why not at least do the lottery or the full first round? If you have time and think of it, can you do my 2024 next year at about this time? If it's time consuming don't worry about it

You can calculate Kendall's W with rank vs actual rank (subjective rank or metric based rank). Just a measure of rank correlation.

Consensus [1, 2, 3] - always a vector from 1 to n
Jabari
Chet
Paolo

Actual results [3, 2, 1] - rank based on any method based on indexing of the first list
Paolo
Chet
Jabari

In this example, the Kendall's W is 0. I actually might do this for all the major big boards (based on BPM or ESPM RPM) pre-draft this year for last year to see who is the worst **** poster (hint Kevin O'KNowNothingTrashCan).