FarBeyondDriven 2024 Draft HQ

[FarBeyondDriven]

I spent all day (6/1) doing a deep dive and evaluating this draft. I think I'm 85% complete. The only things I'm waiting on are the measurements and athletic testing for international prospects. It's frankly impossible to properly evaluate this class effectively without them given how many international prospects make up this draft class. Until then I'll just have to go off old rumors or whatever I can find. And of course the international withdrawal deadline is 6/16 so it's possible we could be losing even more from this class.

It's been a roller-coaster of a draft class evaluation. No matter how hard I tried to be objective this class and the "weak" narrative creeps in and fosters doubt. Then there's the danger of turning into a contrarian and getting too generous. I think I've now arrived at a healthy place where I'm capable of just evaluating based on film, measurements, athleticism, traits, and potential future roles in the NBA without any of the outside noise affecting me.

[FarBeyondDriven]

6/1/24

Tier 1 - All-NBA potential

Sarr
Holland
Dillingham
George
Topic

Tier 2 - All-Star potential

Carter
Risacher
Salaun
McCain
Smith
Knecht
Carrington
Collier

Tier 3 - Starter/6th Man potential

Clingan
Ware
Missi
Bona
Sheppard
Williams
da Silva
Furphy
Buzelis
Walter
Tyson
Holmes II
Dunn
Dadiet
Flowers
Klintman
McCullar
Mitchell
Simpson
Edwards
Bridges
Edey
Christie
Perrin
Ighodaro
Ingram
Jones, David
Lewis

Tier 4 - End of rotation potential (7-10)

Filipowski
James
Hall
Nunez
Almansa
Ajinca
Johnson, K
Scheierman
Mogbo
Jones, Dillon
Larrson
Edwards
Reeves
Shannon Jr.
Johnson, A
Dante
Djurisic

Tier 5 - Deep Bench/G-League potential

Spencer
Newton
Freeman
Alexander
Kolek

[Chuck Everett]

3/10

There are several guys I have with 1st round grades but there's only 30 picks. Ingram, Ware, Ajinca, Carter, Boswell, Clingan, Mgbako Stojakovic and Scheierman in particular.

You think Jamir Watkins can grade out as a mid-first rounder? I think he's probably looking at 25-35, but his play this year has been inspired on a weak FSU team (poor guard play).

[FarBeyondDriven]

3/10

There are several guys I have with 1st round grades but there's only 30 picks. Ingram, Ware, Ajinca, Carter, Boswell, Clingan, Mgbako Stojakovic and Scheierman in particular.

You think Jamir Watkins can grade out as a mid-first rounder? I think he's probably looking at 25-35, but his play this year has been inspired on a weak FSU team (poor guard play).

yes because he's imho capable of being in an NBA rotation as a two-way player right away due to his combo of size/athleticism/skill and the position he plays. Anywhere from mid-first to where you have him he could go. Nothing would shock me. A lot of the lottery talents look like they'll need a couple of seasons of seasoning. Like today, Watkins is a better player than Cody Williams and he can help an NBA team win games. It will take another year for Cody to catch up. But Cody is taller and longer and might have more upside and his brother is killing it in the league so teams will probably draft him over Watkins despite this. But I really don't think there'll be much difference between the two player 5 years from now. I'm not sure if that's an indictment on Williams or because Watkins is that good.

[FarBeyondDriven]

3/14

Moved Furphy completely out of the first round. He needs more seasoning. In conference play, with McCullars being out many games and the opportunity for Furphy to step up and produce, he's shot 26% from three in the last 11 games and Kansas has lost several games. Furphy needs to add size, gain aggression and work on his handle and shot. If he doesn't improve in these areas he jeopardizes going in next year's first round too

[FarBeyondDriven]

3/22/24 update

dropped Cody Williams to the late first. I'm done making excuses for him and giving him the benefit of the doubt. He's too passive. I'm not talking physically or skillset wise, but he doesn't look or play like his brother at all. It kinda makes me think like he plays basketball because it was expected of him not because he loves it. I get Andrew Wiggins vibes minus the skill and athleticism

Dropped Missi to the late first. I see way too many college centers scoring on him with ease to be high on him any longer. Since he can't shoot threes he's basically going to be a screen setter and rim runner with occasional put backs unless he develops and I'm not seeing the motor or BBIQ to have much faith in that. But simply because he's 6'11" and has some wiggle and ability to put the ball on the deck there's still enough promise to be somewhat optimistic.

Moved Dillingham to the end of lottery. He may never be a starting point guard on a playoff team but he's a better prospect than Sexton imo so deserves to be in the lottery. He shares all the same flaws as Sexton and is bigger knucklehead but he's a more skilled scorer and better passer. There's a chance he moves up if he can prove he can do this at the combine and depending on his measurements. He's quick enough and shown some flashes being able to pest ball carriers on the perimeter. It all collapses rather easily the moment anyone puts even a semblance of a move on him but maybe he can be coached up?

Dropped Sheppard a bit. The bad stretch of games could be a motivating factor to get him to play with more aggression which could give us an indication he can play backup PG rather than combo guard which would keep him in the middle of the first. He might fall depending on measurements and how he looks at the combine. I don't see how he could rise.

Carter moves up because after seeing him on the floor against guys I'm more familiar with my concerns about him (size and athleticism) are now alleviated. He's a guy that could move up further. I'm pretty certain he has starting PG ability

Moved da Silva into the first round. I find him so similar to Cam Johnson and feel like he'll play the exact same role as him and that's worth a first rounder. A 3 and D connective passer who can do a little bit of everything. I'm interested in how he measures and performs at the combine. He could move up

Moved Bona up above Missi because I think he's better at the few things Missi can do and he's a much better passer and shot blocker

[The-Power]

3/22/24 Big Board

1. Sarr
2. Risacher
3. Holland
4. Yang
5. Topic
6. Carrington
7. Castle
8. Salaun
9. George
10. McCain
11. Buzelis
12. Collier
13. Knecht
14. Dillingham
15. Carter
16. Watkins
17. Filipowski
18. Sheppard
19. Walter
20. Ighodaro
21. Bona
22. Klintman
23. Smith
24. Perrin
25. Williams
26. da Silva
27. Missi
28. Ingram
29. Mgbako
30. Mitchell, Ajay

Quoted for the record.

[FarBeyondDriven]

I try mocks but then remember there's going to likely be a lot of trades this summer which will directly affect draft picks and needs so why bother. I'm just going to wait until we get closer to the draft and after the season.

[FarBeyondDriven]

I think I've come to the realization that I have to get with the times and accept that flawed prospects I historically have been lower on need to be ranked higher. I'm talking about a specific type of player; the high usage, turnover prone, chucking, no defense playing guards. Nothing has changed about their outcome for me. I don't think any of them can lead their teams to a title. But unlike eras past, when their defense and turnovers would keep them off the floor, today's coaches don't care and give them as much usage as they can handle. So these guys will play and they will produce offensively even at the detriment of their team's ultimate success. So rankings for guys I've historically been lower on need to be in line with the times. Defense is simply not a concern like it used to be for decision makers and coaches. This will affect guys like Dillingham, Knecht, Sheppard and McCain the most.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Post Declare Deadline Big Board 4/30/24

Dillingham
Sarr
Holland
Knecht
McCain
Collier
Carter
Carrington
Risacher
Castle
Williams
George
Buzelis
Topic
Sheppard
Clingan
Edwards
Watkins
Filipowski
Grant-Foster
Salaun
da Silva
Ighodaro
Ware
Bona
Furphy
Missi
Walter
Dadiet
Klintman

[The-Power]

Post Declare Deadline Big Board 4/30/24

Dillingham
Sarr
Holland
Knecht
McCain
Collier
Carter
Carrington
Risacher
Castle
Williams
George
Buzelis
Topic
Sheppard
Clingan
Edwards
Watkins
Filipowski
Grant-Foster
Salaun
da Silva
Ighodaro
Ware
Bona
Furphy
Missi
Walter
Dadiet
Klintman

For someone so confident in their assessment from the start, that sure is a ton of movement within a single month during which there wasn't even any new information coming out in the form of on-court play or measurements. What are the huge swings for some of the players about?

[FarBeyondDriven]

Post Declare Deadline Big Board 4/30/24

Dillingham
Sarr
Holland
Knecht
McCain
Collier
Carter
Carrington
Risacher
Castle
Williams
George
Buzelis
Topic
Sheppard
Clingan
Edwards
Watkins
Filipowski
Grant-Foster
Salaun
da Silva
Ighodaro
Ware
Bona
Furphy
Missi
Walter
Dadiet
Klintman

For someone so confident in their assessment from the start, that sure is a ton of movement within a single month during which there wasn't even any new information coming out in the form of on-court play or measurements. What are the huge swings for some of the players about?

where are you pulling this from? My Big Boards and player evaluations change right up until draft night. Movement happens as I notice trends and as more information comes in. Isn't this how everyone operates? Are you and Clyde so triggered and in such a rush to try and mock me that you're checking in on my Big Board in April? Good Lord

I literally opined (on this very page in fact) why my process has changed and why there'd be movement. To repeat:

I've never liked high usage chuckers that play no defense. I don't believe you can win championships with this type. I've had a difficult time accepting that any coach would play these guys let alone start, let alone be high usage and run the show. So I've had these guys ranked lower than consensus historically. But watching the tournament and these playoffs I've come to the conclusion that NBA teams don't care about the same things as I do and this mindset is antiquated. They'll live with awful defense as long as the ball is going in the basket. Maybe they think outscoring teams is possible or that their coaching acumen can scheme this issue away? Whatever the case, unless I want egg on my face, I need to change the way I evaluate prospects and star ranking guys that are aggressive and on-ball higher and off-ball only guys lower.

The only "ton of movement" is me reconciling with this and forcing myself to change my mindset which I'm finding is a difficult process and I'm still struggling with it and will likely continue to struggle with it going forward. It changes everything. I've evaluated prospects a certain way for decades and now I'm changing drastically so it makes sense that rankings would changed drastically.

I'm assuming you're referring to Dillingham in particular though. This affects him the most. I'm now convinced despite my bias and how I think it SHOULD go, there's a greater chance that he will start and be high usage and if he does, he'll be the ROY and a potential future star. If guys like Maxey and Brunson can do it, Dillingham, who I find even more talented offensively than them, should as well. I now rank Dillingham higher than I had Trae Young. If I'm right and he's allowed to start, he will be vying for all-nba someday imo.

Basically, if I feel like a guy is going to have the offense run through him at the next level, either he's the primary guy (Luka, Brunson, Maxey, Tatum, Jokic, Murray, Banchero) or at least the secondary guy (Wagner, Brown) with sets run through him or in ISO, than he's moved up. if I have doubts, they've moved down. Subject to change of course. This accounts for most of the movement.

Hopefully at the combine I'll see more evidence of these established roles and how teams view these prospects. I'll get a better sense of what their potential is as either a Primary, Secondary or Role player at the next level. With how all over the place this draft class is, my Big Board could move quite a bit still.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Positional Rankings 6/1/24

Bigs

Sarr
Clingan
Bona
Ighodaro
Ware
Missi
Holmes II
Perrin
Edey
Chomche
Filipowski
Dante
Hall
Almansa
Edwards

Forwards

Holland
Smith
Risacher
Salaun
Williams
Buzelis
Flowers
Furphy
Dadiet
da Silva
Ingram
Dunn
Klintman
Lewis
Tyson
Ajinca
Bridges
Scheierman
Shannon
Mogbo
Johnson, K.
Djurisic
Jones, Dillon
Freeman

Guards

Dillingham
George
Topic
Knecht
Carrington
McCain
Carter
Castle
Collier
Sheppard
Simpson
Mitchell
Walter
Jones, David
McCullar Jr.
Christie
Edwards
Reeves
Nunez
James
Johnson
Alexander
Kolek
Spencer
Newton

[FarBeyondDriven]

Comps
*not 1:1 but lots of similarities whether style of play, size, athleticism, skill or just some or all the above

Sarr = Evan Mobley
Carrington = Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
George = Jayson Tatum
Smith = Chris Bosh
Filipowski = Kelly Olynyk
Buzelis = Franz Wagner
Holland = Anthony Edwards
Carter = De'Aaron Fox
Castle = Jimmy Butler
Knecht = Tyler Herro
Topic = Jason Kidd
Dillingham = Allen Iverson
Williams = Andrew Wiggins
Risacher = Peja Stojakovic
Salaun = Michael Porter Jr.
Sheppard = Steve Kerr
Bona = Antonio McDyess
James = Avery Bradley
Walter = Aaron Nesmith
Ingram = OG Anunoby

[FarBeyondDriven]

Mock Draft

1. ATL - Alexander Sarr
2. WAS - Stephon Castle
3. HOU - Donovan Clingan
4. SA - Rob Dillingham
5. DET - Zaccharie Risacher
6. CHA - Ron Holland
7. POR - Tyler Smith
8. SA - Tidjane Salaun
9. MEM - Cody Williams
10. UTAH - Dalton Knecht
11. CHI - Carlton "Bub" Carrington
12. OKC - Yves Missi
13. SAC - Jared McCain
14. POR - Kel'el Ware
15. MIA - Devin Carter
16. PHI - Matas Buzelis
17. NO - Nikola Topic
18. ORL - Reed Sheppard
19. TOR - Pacome Dadiet
20. CLE - Kyshawn George
21. NO - Johnny Furphy
22. PHO - Ryan Dunn
23. MIL - Isaiah Collier
24. NY - Ja' Kobe Walter
25. NY - Tristan da Silva
26. WAS - Adem Bona
27. MN - Ajay Mitchell
28. DEN - Kevin McCullar
29. UTAH - Oso Ighodaro
30. BOS - DaRon Holmes II

[FarBeyondDriven]

Big Board

1. Dillingham
2. Holland
3. Sarr
4. George
5. Smith
6. Topic
7. Knecht
8. Risacher
9. Carrington
10. McCain
11. Carter
12. Salaun
13. Williams
14. Castle
15. Collier
16. Buzelis
17. Clingan
18. Flowers
19. Furphy
20. Sheppard
21. Simpson
22. Mitchell
23. Dadiet
24. da Silva
25. Ingram
26. Dunn
27. Walter
28. Bona
29. Ighodaro
30. Jones, David
31. Ware
32. Missi
33. Klintman
34. McCullar Jr.
35. Holmes II
36. Perrin
37. Christie
38. Lewis
39. Tyson
40. Edwards, Justin
41. Edey
42. Reeves
43. Ajinca
44. Nunez
45. Bridges
46. Scheierman
47. Chomche
48. Shannon Jr.
49. Mogbo
50. Jones, David
51. James
52. Filipowski
53. Johnson, K.
54. Dante
55. Larsson
56. Johnson, A.
57. Djurisic
58. Hall