First Thoughts on the '24-25 Roster

[payitforward]

We have 9 guys with guaranteed contracts for next year: Poole, Kuzma, Avdija, Holmes (at his option), Bagley, Coulibaly, Kispert, Davis, & Baldwin. We have a team option on Vukcevic. I suppose we should assume he'll be here as well.

That makes 10. We also have team options on Shamet & on Omoruyi. Plus, we have 3 draft picks.

All this adds up to 15, a full roster (assuming our R2 guy makes the team).

Obviously, the above is based on the assumption that Tyus, Gill & Livers won't be with us. Replaced by those 3 rookies. Yet, it does seem likely that we'll see more changes --

Tyus may be traded for a player rather than picks.
We may well move either Shamet or Holmes or both.
We may find a way to move Davis or, if not, we may simply cut his cable.

It seems safe, if not certain, to project at least 2 more open roster spots. Maybe (likely?) more.
What will/would we do with those spots?

1. Will we want to move Butler to the regular roster?
Certainly it's a strong possibility.

2. Do we like Champagnie?
Well... I do notice that we've already signed him to a 2-way contract for next year. Which seems to up the chances that he might be headed towards a regular roster spot.

Probably too early to be speculating about any of this, but....

[nate33]

We have 9 guys with guaranteed contracts for next year: Poole, Kuzma, Avdija, Holmes (at his option), Bagley, Coulibaly, Kispert, Davis, & Baldwin. We have a team option on Vukcevic. I suppose we should assume he'll be here as well.

That makes 10. We also have team options on Shamet & on Omoruyi. Plus, we have 3 draft picks.

All this adds up to 15, a full roster (assuming our R2 guy makes the team).

Obviously, the above is based on the assumption that Tyus, Gill & Livers won't be with us. Replaced by those 3 rookies. Yet, it does seem likely that we'll see more changes --

Tyus may be traded for a player rather than picks.
We may well move either Shamet or Holmes or both.
We may find a way to move Davis or, if not, we may simply cut his cable.

It seems safe, if not certain, to project at least 2 more open roster spots. Maybe (likely?) more.
What will/would we do with those spots?

1. Will we want to move Butler to the regular roster?
Certainly it's a strong possibility.

2. Do we like Champagnie?
Well... I do notice that we've already signed him to a 2-way contract for next year. Which seems to up the chances that he might be headed towards a regular roster spot.

Probably too early to be speculating about any of this, but....

I'm assuming the organization is preparing for at least one more ugly tanking season and they have no intention whatsoever of making any deals that help the team in the short term. They want Cooper Flagg or Ace Bailey and they will do whatever it takes to get them.

Ironically, I don't really think they had that mindset this past offseason. I think they knew this draft wasn't that strong so they had no problems keeping guys like Kuzma and adding a guy like Tyus. I think they were aiming for 25 wins - roughly as good as the Trail Blazers or at least Charlotte, even if it meant the #6 pick instead of a top 3 pick. I think the magnitude of our suckiness surprised them.

But this coming year is the year to not screw around and accidentally win too much. This is the year to tank hard and I expect them to do it. I expect most of the offseason moves to be made with the goal of getting future picks or totally raw prospects. They won't be using cap room to add any decent vets. If they resign Tyus, it will be with the goal of trading him. I think Kuzma will be back on the block too.

We're going to see a lot of Deni, Coulibaly and our top 5 pick next year. You can count on that. And if any other young guys can play well enough to not be a total embarrassment, they will play.

[doclinkin]

I'm assuming the organization is preparing for at least one more ugly tanking season. They have no intention whatsoever of making any deals that help the team in the short term. They want Cooper Flagg or Ace Bailey and they will do whatever it takes to get them.

Ironically, I don't really think they had that mindset this past offseason. I think they knew this draft wasn't that strong so they had no problems keeping guys like Kuzma and adding a guy like Tyus. I think they were aiming for 25 wins - roughly as good as the Trail Blazers or at least Charlotte, even if it meant the #6 pick instead of a top 3 pick.

But this coming year is the year to not screw around accidentally win too much. This is the year to tank hard and I expect them to do it. I expect most of the offseason moves to be made with the goal of getting future picks or totally raw prospects. They won't be using cap room to add any decent vets. If they resign Tyus, it will be with the goal of trading him. I think Kuzma will be back on the block too.

We're going to see a lot of Deni, Coulibaly and our top 5 pick next year. You can count on that. And if any other young guys can play well enough to not be a total embarrassment, they will play.

My read precisely. More specifically: I fully expect Kuzma is gone on a draft night deal. Possibly to move up in the first round with that late round Clipper pick (plus future compensation). Any other assets who can bring good value are also likely gone by tip of the ball at season opener. I don't think they even wait until mid-season, but sell this year as a fresh start.

I think Tyus signs with another team. If we can sign and trade him then great, but I think there will be enough interest that we might not have that leverage. I think they wouldn't mind resigning him but the Poole/Jones chemistry clearly does not work, especially for the development of young players. And we are stuck with Poole. Poole does work great for the tank so unless we draft Topić (or maybe Sheppard/Castle) we are probably going to run with Poole as our starting ballhandler and live with the spectacular losses.

Personally if we land any of the top PG talents I would love to keep Jones as a mentor for them. Or even if not. A new guy will need someone to get them the ball and teach professional habits. Under the 90% role you have to pay someone. Might as well be a pro's pro who makes zero mistakes whatever his shortcomings on defense. I bet he wants to win though and takes a deal elsewhere. We will probably have to overpay to keep him. On a frontloaded deal the way they like, if so.

Realy I'd like to keep Poole shelved with the 2nd unit in that role as a Walmart Jamal Crawford. Thrift store Lou Williams. Maybe he can rehabilitate his value somewhat with the occasional spectacular night against back-ups. So we can sell him sometime down the road. But he should not be on court as a starter, exemplifying bad habits and losing behavior. If we draft a PG (or 2-guard and re-ink Tyus) maybe we can use that as a reason to keep him benched. It's one reason I've been elevating Risacher in my mind, as a desperate hope we can displace Poole and keep Tyus on the squad. Or Reed. Help us Reed Kenobi, you're our only hope.

Going into this year they made noises about being competitive and rebuilding on the fly. They thought Poole would be something better than atrocious and re-upped Kuzma with the idea that we might look somewhat better in our losses. They did have to know our defense would be terrible, intentionally leaving us undersized in the backcourt and weak at center with no actual back-up 5. This level of terrible was never anticipated though. I don't think they meant Wes to be a sacrifice to the tank, but appreciated his record as a player development guy who would be even keeled even in a losing year.

We were supposed to win enough to look interesting and drive up offers in our vets. Then sell assets and coast for the 2nd half. Instead we had a spectacular flame-out that dampened interest in any of our players and recouped us less than hoped in the planned mid-year fire sale.

Selling off productive player Gafford was the signal of where we are going next year. We will sell for picks anyone but Deni and Bilal. Kispert maybe. And even then we will listen to offers. Going into next year I would not expect we will have all of the guys currently under contract, but will try to trade anyone on the roster for whomever nets us the most in future returns.

In order of expected return: Kuzma, Deni, Kispert, Shamet, all have value. Players like Holmes (player option), Baldwin, Omoruyi, Davis seem like they'd be filler and throw ins to make the numbers work and open up roster spots. Nobody will want Davis, but they will try.

I think they keep Bagley, Deni, Bilal. Maybe Kispert, but I think someone will offer real return for him, and he has probably suffered most with Poole on the team. Vukcevic and Baldwin will get extended tryouts, vying for the same minutes and role. Our rookies will play. The year will be advertised as a developmental year instead of pretending to even look competitive. We will see too much of Poole. But currently any amount of minutes is too much of Poole. He is perfect for the tank though so we will have to be fine with that.

The rest of the 90% will be taken up by short deal vets or big salaries we absorb from teams that sell them to us with draft pick incentives.

[nate33]

Going into this year they made noises about being competitive and rebuilding on the fly. They thought Poole would be something better than atrocious and re-upped Kuzma with the idea that we might look somewhat better in our losses. They did have to know our defense would be terrible, intentionally leaving us undersized in the backcourt and weak at center with no actual back-up 5. This level of terrible was never anticipated though. I don't think they meant Wes to be a sacrifice to the tank, but appreciated his record as a player development guy who would be even keeled even in a losing year.

We were supposed to win enough to look interesting and drive up offers in our vets. Then sell assets and coast for the 2nd half. Instead we had a spectacular flame-out that dampened interest in any of our players and recouped us less than hoped in the planned mid-year fire sale.

This part is so completely accurate. If we are going to criticize management, this is the part where they failed. We went 3-20 in our first 23 games and that totally tanked the value of any of the vets on the roster. They misjudged the weakness of our talent and underestimated the strength of the league. In hindsight, they absolutely should have acquired a real backup center who could defend and rebound so that our first 23 games didn't look so insanely awful.

It was also a questionable decision to go all-in on an up-tempo system. Teams immediately recognized that the stats of our players were inflated by pace and instead focused on the wretched defense and concluded that nobody on the team was worth paying for. If the goal is to sell off vets to win-now teams, you want to showcase vets who defend well enough to stay on the floor in a playoff game. If you slow things down on offense you can make sure your defense gets back and avoid the cross-matches, which makes the defensive numbers look better. Also, playing bigger, slower players helps you control the defensive glass, even if it hurts the offense by clogging driving lanes.

But to be fair, I underestimated the degree of awfulness of the team as well. I predicted 25 wins.