Official Trade Thread Part XLVI

[Frichuela]

I have hopes Kuzma may be traded either draft day for a late lottery pick (e.g. Atlanta, Memphis or Utah may bite) or by the summer/next trade deadline for a decent 2025 or 2026 1st rounder.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I have hopes Kuzma may be traded either draft day for a late lottery pick (e.g. Atlanta, Memphis or Utah may bite) or by the summer/next trade deadline for a decent 2025 or 2026 1st rounder.

I'd deal him to NY for picks 24 & 25.

[nate33]

I have hopes Kuzma may be traded either draft day for a late lottery pick (e.g. Atlanta, Memphis or Utah may bite) or by the summer/next trade deadline for a decent 2025 or 2026 1st rounder.

I'd deal him to NY for picks 24 & 25.

We already have two first round picks. A team can only develop so many guys at once. If we're trading Kuzma, I want picks in 2025 and/or 2026.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I have hopes Kuzma may be traded either draft day for a late lottery pick (e.g. Atlanta, Memphis or Utah may bite) or by the summer/next trade deadline for a decent 2025 or 2026 1st rounder.

I'd deal him to NY for picks 24 & 25.

We already have two first round picks. A team can only develop so many guys at once. If we're trading Kuzma, I want picks in 2025 and/or 2026.

That’s what the Gleague is for. We should be adding as much young talent now as possible so when we get “our guy” in 25/26 we have a roster full of youth that’s been here developing the past year or 2 in place already.

[nate33]

I'd deal him to NY for picks 24 & 25.

We already have two first round picks. A team can only develop so many guys at once. If we're trading Kuzma, I want picks in 2025 and/or 2026.

That’s what the Gleague is for. We should be adding as much young talent now as possible so when we get “our guy” in 25/26 we have a roster full of youth that’s been here developing the past year or 2 in place already.

The G-League is for marginal second-round talents. Typically, you want to develop your first round picks in the NBA where the competition is more realistic - particularly with big men. G-League big men suck.

[NatP4]

Can always package multiple late 1sts to move up. Someone out of the Buzelis/Holland/Clingan/Castle group will fall outside of the top 10.

[nate33]

Can always package multiple late 1sts to move up. Someone out of the Buzelis/Holland/Clingan/Castle group will fall outside of the top 10.

Sure. I'm not opposed to it. Particularly if we can package a handful of future 2nd's to move up higher into the first.

I'm just saying that I want some 2025 and 2026 draft capital instead of loading up on 2024. Generally speaking, buying assets further in the future costs less than buying assets from the current draft. And since our time horizon for the rebuild is multiple years long, we're going to get more value for our assets by having a long term view when we make trades. Also factor that you can only develop so many rookies at the same time.

Ultimately, it just makes more sense to trade Kuzma for future assets than for more 2024 assets.

[pcbothwel]

Can always package multiple late 1sts to move up. Someone out of the Buzelis/Holland/Clingan/Castle group will fall outside of the top 10.

Sure. I'm not opposed to it. Particularly if we can package a handful of future 2nd's to move up higher into the first.

I'm just saying that I want some 2025 and 2026 draft capital instead of loading up on 2024. Generally speaking, buying assets further in the future costs less than buying assets from the current draft. And since our time horizon for the rebuild is multiple years long, we're going to get more value for our assets by having a long term view when we make trades. Also factor that you can only develop so many rookies at the same time.

Ultimately, it just makes more sense to trade Kuzma for future assets than for more 2024 assets.

Completely agree nate. Teams with anticipation of a multi-year run (Magic, Knicks, TWolves, NOP, etc.) value the play ready guys like Kolek, McCullar, Shannon, Da Silva, Carter, Holmes, etc.
These are all guys that can contribute on a playoff rotation on their rookie contract. Like you, I want multiple 1sts in the 2025-2027 draft so that we can keep the pipeline of rookie contracts as we rebuild.

[NatP4]

I mean, I’ll gladly take Devin Carter and Daron Holmes over a single 2025 protected 1st.

People always initially overrate the next draft. Who the hell knows what 2025 will look like this time next year.

[nate33]

I mean, I’ll gladly take Devin Carter and Daron Holmes over a single 2025 protected 1st.

People always initially overrate the next draft. Who the hell knows what 2025 will look like this time next year.

I think people always overrate the current draft - falling in love with prospects after they've watched a bunch of highlights.

[pcbothwel]

I mean, I’ll gladly take Devin Carter and Daron Holmes over a single 2025 protected 1st.

People always initially overrate the next draft. Who the hell knows what 2025 will look like this time next year.

I think people always overrate the current draft - falling in love with prospects after they've watched a bunch of highlights.

Nate is right.
Nat, Lets turn the tables to last year. You would have said "I mean, I’ll gladly take Podziemski and Noah Clowney over a single 2024 protected 1st."

Are you wrong then? Or now? Or neither?
Point is NOT about the draft class. Its about proper planning/time phasing of young talent that aligns with your existing young talent so that you can backfill, trade, etc.
Assuming we keep the two picks this year, would you rather have {Insert Player Name} on a rookie deal from 2024-2028, or 2025-2029?
I'll take the latter, even without getting into the strength of the draft class

[NatP4]

I understand your point, don’t disagree with that, but you also have to weigh the single pick vs multiple picks.

The strength/lack of strength of the particular draft class is obviously still relevant.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I mean, I’ll gladly take Devin Carter and Daron Holmes over a single 2025 protected 1st.

People always initially overrate the next draft. Who the hell knows what 2025 will look like this time next year.

I think people always overrate the current draft - falling in love with prospects after they've watched a bunch of highlights.

Nate is right.
Nat, Lets turn the tables to last year. You would have said "I mean, I’ll gladly take Podziemski and Noah Clowney over a single 2024 protected 1st."

Are you wrong then? Or now? Or neither?
Point is NOT about the draft class. Its about proper planning/time phasing of young talent that aligns with your existing young talent so that you can backfill, trade, etc.
Assuming we keep the two picks this year, would you rather have {Insert Player Name} on a rookie deal from 2024-2028, or 2025-2029?
I'll take the latter, even without getting into the strength of the draft class

The problem is we are completely rebuilding this team from the ground up with basically no assets. We didn't get the haul of.draft picks for Beal or Wall. And we've been running for years on a premise of being close and draft safer complimentary players like Kispert and Rui and Johnny Davis. So we need to make up for lost time. The more picks we can add now, late 1st and 2nd rounders especially, the more long term developmental projects but potential high upside picks we can add with a more swing for the fences approach. Draft guys that can develop on the GoGo for a year or 2 like Patrick Baldwin or play overseas for a year like Vukcevic. Draft guys like Bilal who are raw but have the physical tools that can play and learn the game while we tank. Players like Adem Bona, Pacome Dadiet, Kyshawn George, Carrington, Ware, Salaun, Adjinca, Adama Bal, Klintman, Ulrich Chomche ... So that when we add someone like Flagg, Harper, Bailey, Boozer, we have some young talent that's already here and being developed to add to them. If you hit on 1 or 2 or 3 of them then you've got something to build on. You don't want to get "our guy" here, then start drafting guys that might be ready in 3 years if ever. You want to draft those guys now BEFORE "that guy" is here.

And having too many guys to develop or too many up for 2nd contracts at the same time etc is nonsense. If you draft 5 or 6 guys, maybe only 2 of them "hit". But you bring in as many as you can, so you can weed out the keepers from the sleepers. I mean look at the Orioles!

[nate33]

The problem is we are completely rebuilding this team from the ground up with basically no assets. We didn't get the haul of.draft picks for Beal or Wall. And we've been running for years on a premise of being close and draft safer complimentary players like Kispert and Rui and Johnny Davis. So we need to make up for lost time.

No. We don't.

The fact that our rebuild didn't get a running start is irrelevant. The process for rebuilding is the same either way. You need to maximize the potential of every pick. That means that you don't draft more guys that you can develop, and it means you should be willing to trade for a better pick in the future rather than a worse pick right now.

[doclinkin]

The problem is we are completely rebuilding this team from the ground up with basically no assets. We didn't get the haul of.draft picks for Beal or Wall. And we've been running for years on a premise of being close and draft safer complimentary players like Kispert and Rui and Johnny Davis. So we need to make up for lost time. The more picks we can add now, late 1st and 2nd rounders especially, the more long term developmental projects but potential high upside picks we can add with a more swing for the fences approach. Draft guys that can develop on the GoGo for a year or 2 like Patrick Baldwin or play overseas for a year like Vukcevic. Draft guys like Bilal who are raw but have the physical tools that can play and learn the game while we tank. Players like Adem Bona, Pacome Dadiet, Kyshawn George, Carrington, Ware, Salaun, Adjinca, Adama Bal, Klintman, Ulrich Chomche ... So that when we add someone like Flagg, Harper, Bailey, Boozer, we have some young talent that's already here and being developed to add to them. If you hit on 1 or 2 or 3 of them then you've got something to build on. You don't want to get "our guy" here, then start drafting guys that might be ready in 3 years if ever. You want to draft those guys now BEFORE "that guy" is here.

And having too many guys to develop or too many up for 2nd contracts at the same time etc is nonsense. If you draft 5 or 6 guys, maybe only 2 of them "hit". But you bring in as many as you can, so you can weed out the keepers from the sleepers. I mean look at the Orioles!

Baseball has the luxury of multiple minor leagues to send prospects down for seasoning. Years if necessary.

In the NBA you only have 15 roster spots, plus two 2-way slots. And if you are not within 90% of the cap, you don't get any of the Lux tax disbursement.

I like the list of players you tabbed since a few are international guys that you could draft and stash overseas if they don't pan out. Their development over there will be out of your hands. And they may end up signing a longer term contract you will have to wait out. Still,they develop on someone else's playing time. It's a decent strategy as the FIBA rules leagues get stronger every year. If so though you're still not really making up for lost time, since they are marinating for however long it takes. It's not necessarily one year, it's whenever they develop and if they aren't locked in to a longer contract before you're ready for them.

But maybe they are good enough to stay. Better decide quickly if you want them here though, your evaluation time on those sleeper picks will be a few weeks of training camp plus pre-season. Would Giannis have developed into the monster he is today if he went back to Greece? His first couple years only gave flashes of who he became.

I think Winger and Dawkins are smart to simply add a couple extra picks every year. They are building for the long haul not trying to forcefeed talent into the system. Instead of betting heavy on one particular year, you constantly add additional chances, never knowing which year is going to truly have a huge talent load. Dollar cost averaging with basketball talent. It's the same thing you are suggesting, just spread out over time.

Think about it, there are about 500 players in the league every year, with roster turnover one way or the other. But 60 players get selected every year. Last year 242 players declared for the NBA draft. Every year only a few players last in the league past their first contract. The average playing career in the NBA is 4.5 years. It's a constant churn and turnover. But in order to know if anyone is any good you have to put them in position to succeed. Pouring 15 rookies in every year and hoping they stick won't teach anyone how to win.

I like the idea that every year we get a couple extra whacks at the piñata. Some of which may be higher up the talent tree, even into the lotto. If the NBA eventually lets teams draft and stash their entire G-League team, in a true minor league system, then cool, we can try the strategy of hoarding every late pick we can get. But until then, I like how they are playing it so far. Bilal stuck. Vuk developed overseas. PBR was mostly butt after developing with another team, but showed flashes late. We stole Butler. Used our G-League well. So far looks to me like they are taking advantage of the holes in the system without overloading the team with non-players.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

The problem is we are completely rebuilding this team from the ground up with basically no assets. We didn't get the haul of.draft picks for Beal or Wall. And we've been running for years on a premise of being close and draft safer complimentary players like Kispert and Rui and Johnny Davis. So we need to make up for lost time. The more picks we can add now, late 1st and 2nd rounders especially, the more long term developmental projects but potential high upside picks we can add with a more swing for the fences approach. Draft guys that can develop on the GoGo for a year or 2 like Patrick Baldwin or play overseas for a year like Vukcevic. Draft guys like Bilal who are raw but have the physical tools that can play and learn the game while we tank. Players like Adem Bona, Pacome Dadiet, Kyshawn George, Carrington, Ware, Salaun, Adjinca, Adama Bal, Klintman, Ulrich Chomche ... So that when we add someone like Flagg, Harper, Bailey, Boozer, we have some young talent that's already here and being developed to add to them. If you hit on 1 or 2 or 3 of them then you've got something to build on. You don't want to get "our guy" here, then start drafting guys that might be ready in 3 years if ever. You want to draft those guys now BEFORE "that guy" is here.

And having too many guys to develop or too many up for 2nd contracts at the same time etc is nonsense. If you draft 5 or 6 guys, maybe only 2 of them "hit". But you bring in as many as you can, so you can weed out the keepers from the sleepers. I mean look at the Orioles!

Baseball has the luxury of multiple minor leagues to send prospects down for seasoning. Years if necessary.

In the NBA you only have 15 roster spots, plus two 2-way slots. And if you are not within 90% of the cap, you don't get any of the Lux tax disbursement.

I like the list of players you tabbed since a few are international guys that you could draft and stash overseas if they don't pan out. Their development over there will be out of your hands. And they may end up signing a longer term contract you will have to wait out. Still,they develop on someone else's playing time. It's a decent strategy as the FIBA rules leagues get stronger every year. If so though you're still not really making up for lost time, since they are marinating for however long it takes. It's not necessarily one year, it's whenever they develop and if they aren't locked in to a longer contract before you're ready for them.

But maybe they are good enough to stay. Better decide quickly if you want them here though, your evaluation time on those sleeper picks will be a few weeks of training camp plus pre-season. Would Giannis have developed into the monster he is today if he went back to Greece? His first couple years only gave flashes of who he became.

I think Winger and Dawkins are smart to simply add a couple extra picks every year. They are building for the long haul not trying to forcefeed talent into the system. Instead of betting heavy on one particular year, you constantly add additional chances, never knowing which year is going to truly have a huge talent load. Dollar cost averaging with basketball talent. It's the same thing you are suggesting, just spread out over time.

Think about it, there are about 500 players in the league every year, with roster turnover one way or the other. But 60 players get selected every year. Last year 242 players declared for the NBA draft. Every year only a few players last in the league past their first contract. The average playing career in the NBA is 4.5 years. It's a constant churn and turnover. But in order to know if anyone is any good you have to put them in position to succeed. Pouring 15 rookies in every year and hoping they stick won't teach anyone how to win.

I like the idea that every year we get a couple extra whacks at the piñata. Some of which may be higher up the talent tree, even into the lotto. If the NBA eventually lets teams draft and stash their entire G-League team, in a true minor league system, then cool, we can try the strategy of hoarding every late pick we can get. But until then, I like how they are playing it so far. Bilal stuck. Vuk developed overseas. PBR was mostly butt after developing with another team, but showed flashes late. We stole Butler. Used our G-League well. So far looks to me like they are taking advantage of the holes in the system without overloading the team with non-players.

Yes,well said, and I do agree with that. I guess my point at the beginning was if NY offers 24 & 25 in this years draft for Kuzma I'm taking that in a heartbeat. What's the point of holding on to Kuzma in the hopes we might get picks in a "better draft" in the future? Maybe Kuzma gets hurt like Wall? Or maybe his play just stagnates or declines like Beal and he's not so easy to move. Maybe the future draft isn't actually better than this years draft. Maybe a team is willing to part with more draft capital for this draft because it is perceived as a "weak draft", and the future pick offer you wait for isn't as good? To me, your better off taking those picks now and starting the development process whether that's here with the Wizards, on the Go Go, or overseas. I do like the idea of stockpiling picks for years to come as well... of course! I'd love to draft multiple 1st rounders every year, they're like lottery tickets. And future picks are tradeable assets as well. But if its 2 picks in this years draft (the NY 24 & 25 example) vs 1 top 20 protected pick in 2026, I'm taking the picks now and starting that multi-year development process sooner than later. I don't see the issue of we don't have room for them now or its too many people to develop. Plus the players we draft now continue to be assets, if at some point we don't view them as a long term fits they can be parlayed into future picks as well, for example when we decided to trade away Rui, or if we decided to move on now from Kispert or Deni we can move them for future picks. Acquiring picks now and drafting players doesn't prevent us from still utilizing those assets to continue acquiring more future picks down the line.

[doclinkin]

Yes,well said, and I do agree with that. I guess my point at the beginning was if NY offers 24 & 25 in this years draft for Kuzma I'm taking that in a heartbeat.
...
To me, your better off taking those picks now and starting the development process whether that's here with the Wizards, on the Go Go, or overseas.
...
if its 2 picks in this years draft (the NY 24 & 25 example) vs 1 top 20 protected pick in 2026, I'm taking the picks now and starting that multi-year development process sooner than later.

Thing is you'd have 6, 24, 25, 26 locked in on the rookie scale for the next few years. Plus Bilal. Vukcevic. 6 of 15 players brand new to the league, filling your cap with guys who don't yet know how to play.

Plus next year's draft pick and possibly two high 2nd rounders (ours, and PHX who's future is locked into 3 high salary late-career players with injury histories). All trying to get those developmental minutes while not yet learning how to win at this level.

AND with the rookie scale structure, they won't help you reach that 90% salary cap. Compounded by the fact that you traded away the 2nd highest salary on the team.

Players drafted in the first round don't tend to play in Europe. Unless they are already locked into a deal over there. The money is better to sit the bench in the NBA than to play overseas. And the contract structure is set in advance. If they make your team you are stuck with them for a bit. You can't just try them out then take them to the thrift store. But you only have summer league and a few weeks practice/preseason to decide.

At that point you'd rather have a mess of high 2nd rounders than have every pick at the bottom of the first round. At least that way you can get creative about the contract structure. Or pick more of the draft and stash guys.

I dunno. The FO wants 2 first rounders for Kuzma and I think they get it on draft day. But they are looking long term, in player development and overall franchise philosophy. Sustainable high level success, not worried about a jump start. Thinking about a dynasty. I think we might not see all of those picks for a few years. But future picks are rarely valued as highly for teams who are looking for an edge right now. You get a better chance at +++ value when teams trade away their future for immediate help. I think we are going to be very happy when we can take advantage of the PHX pick swaps, for instance.

[dckingsfan]

Would we get salary back in any trade with NY?

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Would we get salary back in any trade with NY?

Right , good point... in any deal we probably have to take back some kind of salary in a less than desirable contract, so the other benefit of the deal sooner than later is the sooner we consummate that deal the sooner we can get that money we take on off the books, so we can free up that money to extend players we want to extend at that point. Plus I’ll say this. This is the time we can afford to give pt to young developing players, while we are in rebuild mode and not trying to win, so they can get on the court and play and learn how to play. Developing chemistry with other young building blocks, going through their ups and downs and learning their craft while there’s less pressure. I mean which is better? Is it better for Bilal to play on a team with teammates that won’t be here in a year or 2? Is playing with a team of guys like Anthony Gil, Tyus Jones, Shamet teaching Bilal how to be a winner? They can show him how to be a professional and help acclimate him to the league. Do we want to be adding players 2 or 3 years from now, when hopefully we’re reaching a point of trying to win games, that need need 2 or 3 years to develop or is it better to add those players now so at that point they’re ready to contribute? I do concede, if we draft a guy like Ware, having someone like Kuz here to mentor him could be beneficial. And adding 5 rookies all at once could be too many to handle ... I guess my feeling is now is the time for building and developing, and I’m hoping 3-4 years from now will be the time for winning. I’d like to see the front office braintrust aggressive in their approach to add as much young talent as possible. But ultimately, I like the moves Winger and Dawkins have made since getting here, and I fully trust them with this rebuild and I’m excited to see where it goes!

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Baseball has the luxury of multiple minor leagues to send prospects down for seasoning. Years if necessary.

Yes, I guess my thinking is that right now the Wizards ARE the minor leagues. We're not winning, and we're not competing for the playoffs for the next few years. As far as the rest of the NBA, the Wizards are essentially a AAA team. The Go Go are our AA affiliate. We aren't a major league team until we're ready to consistently compete for deep playoff runs. Right now we should be throwing as much as we can against the wall to see what sticks. We should have scouts all over the world. We should be developing players now with our current "minor league" Wizards so they can get called up to the "Major League" Wizards in 2-3 years.