The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!

[The Consiglieri]

Oh and:

Come on Doc... no one trades 1 higher pick for 1 lower pick!

Not my argument. Mine is okay trade back in this draft, but instead of a haul of many lower picks in this draft, pick up one plus future picks in a future draft. Trade fewer picks for lighter protection. And pick swaps. Because those lower picks now are guaranteed to be lower, duh, but future picks have a chance to be higher up in the cluster of sweetest grapes. Play the long game instead of gimmegimme right now! Spread out your chances to drafts that may have greater talent. Then yeah, hope to live long enough to see it all pan out

Oh and this is the search tool I've used for finding picks by draft position if anyone wants to grind through it.

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/search

Seems to me if you could get the 5th and 15th pick in every draft, you'd be doing great. Many of the best the flukes and anomalies seem to cluster there.

Yep, once it became clear we were starting officially tanking this season, my view was 1000%, if we could trade out, I'd rather do that than draft at slot in this class. I'd rather have magic bullets in '25 and '27 or whatever, than a top 6 pick in this one. Of course the risk is that in a league like this, you end up getting a pick in the teens or whatever, but I'm sure there's a way of playing it that makes more sense than simply trading down. Find a dumb team that's delusional about where they're at right now, and thinks with just two picks this year in the lottery they can contend, or win 45-50 or whatever, and target them. It also helps because it stretches out and avoids wasting rookie contract years on lost seasons. Bad enough the '24 picks are likely to be used on complimentary at best players, even worse that half their rookie deals will probably be wrapped before we have any chance of even being good.

[Tyrone Messby]

Draft Bronny with the PHX 2nd

[DCZards]

I think the narrative that this year’s draft is so much worse than the 2025 (and beyond) draft is overblown. Is there any evidence that outside of the top 2-3 picks (Flagg, Harper, Bailey) that next year’s draft is any deeper than the 2024 draft? There are good players in every draft, especially in the top 10-15 picks. You just have to be lucky/skilled enough to draft them.

[dckingsfan]

Oh and:



Not my argument. Mine is okay trade back in this draft, but instead of a haul of many lower picks in this draft, pick up one plus future picks in a future draft. Trade fewer picks for lighter protection. And pick swaps. Because those lower picks now are guaranteed to be lower, duh, but future picks have a chance to be higher up in the cluster of sweetest grapes. Play the long game instead of gimmegimme right now! Spread out your chances to drafts that may have greater talent. Then yeah, hope to live long enough to see it all pan out

Sure. Why not.

Seems to me if you could get the 5th and 15th pick in every draft, you'd be doing great. Many of the best the flukes and anomalies seem to cluster there.

If you believe Pelton's chart, you might get 5, 15, & 29 for 1.

Depending on the year, I'd rather get 5, 15 and a chance at a future 15.

IIRC Pelton's chart was based on the value of the expected production from that position though. Ultimately if you can get the production of 5+15+29 from a single guy, you'd rather have that, since you can only play 5 guys at a time.

I think in this year, if you were to get 6 and 14 + 34 for #1 (Portland trade), you would promptly trade (34) + 26 + 51 (or at least two of them) for future draft picks, IMO.

[The Consiglieri]

I think the narrative that this year’s draft is so much worse than the 2025 (and beyond) draft is overblown. Is there any evidence that outside of the top 2-3 picks (Flagg, Harper, Bailey) that next year’s draft is any deeper than the 2024 draft? There are good players in every draft, especially in the top 10-15 picks. You just have to be lucky/skilled enough to draft them.

I've heard a consensus that the guys after the first couple aren't all that different than guys that typically would go in the later lottery and non-lottery picks but I'm skeptical. I've seen some pretty exciting prospects in the later lottery and teens/early 20's in past year that were special, this draft seems pretty flat in general to me. I could be wrong, but for a lottery team, what we have access to sucks. We aren't picking anything remotely close to the top of the drafts late last decade or all of this decade save '20. It is HUGELY disappointing. It doesn't console me that our LA pick is not all that different than any 20something pick any year, if our locked in top 1-6 pick is WAY lower. I'd rather just trade out (but I recognize that is not happening, I'd just definitely rather do it: would help the tank, and give us another prospect or two to develop in the later stages of the build, then give us a likely non-needle moving complimentary player which is generally what we've gotten when we haven't drafted busts for the past 36 or 37 years). Drafting 2024 iteration of a poor man's Cal Cheaney or Jared Jeffries does nothing for me.

I know, Im kinda disgruntled. Long term I'm excited, but this year, right here right now, I'm just frustrated. This could have been so much different, otoh, I am happy we own Phoenix's disintegration if they get any luck, that does make me smile.

[NatP4]

I think the narrative that this year’s draft is so much worse than the 2025 (and beyond) draft is overblown. Is there any evidence that outside of the top 2-3 picks (Flagg, Harper, Bailey) that next year’s draft is any deeper than the 2024 draft? There are good players in every draft, especially in the top 10-15 picks. You just have to be lucky/skilled enough to draft them.

It’s obnoxiously overblown. Buzelis, Collier, and Holland were just as hyped as Flagg, Harper, and Bailey before the season started. We have no clue how high school players will produce at the next level.

[Dat2U]

Rough draft:

C
Alexandre Sarr (Top 3)
Kyle Filipowski (late lottery/mid-1st)
Donovan Clingan (late lottery/mid-1st)
Kel'el Ware (late lottery/mid-1st)
Zach Edey (Mid/late 1st)
Daron Holmes II (late 1st/early 2nd)
Yves Missi (late 1st/early 2nd)
Ryan Kalkbrenner (early 2nd rd)

PF
Tristan de Silva (Mid/late 1st)
Izan Almansa (early 2nd rd)
Bobi Klintman (early 2nd rd)
Coleman Hawkins (2nd rd)
Tyler Smith (2nd rd)

SF
Ron Holland (Top 5)
Matas Buzelis (mid lottery)
Zaccharie Risacher (mid/late lottery)
Dalton Knecht (late lottery/mid-1st)
Cody Williams (late lottery/mid-1st)
Johnny Furphy (mid/late 1st rd)
Melvin Ajinca (late 1st/early 2nd)
Dillon Jones (late 1st/early 2nd)
Tidjane Salaun (late 1st/early 2nd)
Kyshawn George (late 1st/early 2nd)
Baylor Scheierman (early 2nd rd)
Alex Karaban (early 2nd rd)
Ryan Dunn (2nd rd)
Harrison Ingram (2nd rd)
Payton Sandfort (2nd rd)

SG
Ja'Kobe Walter (mid/late 1st rd)
Stefon Castle (mid/late 1st rd)
Jaylon Tyson (late 1st/early 2nd)
Ajay Mitchell (late 1st/early 2nd)
Terrence Shannon Jr (late 1st/early 2nd)
Kevin McCullar (late 1st/early 2nd)
Hunter Sallis (early 2nd rd)
Trey Alexander (2nd rd)
Pacome Dadiet (2nd rd)
Cam Spencer (2nd rd)

PG
Rob Dillingham (Top 5)
Nikola Topic (Top 5)
Reed Sheppard (mid-lottery)
Jared McCain (late lottery)
Isaiah Collier (late lottery)
Tyler Kolek (mid/late 1st rd)
Devin Carter (mid/late 1st rd)
Carlton Carrington (late 1st/early 2nd)
K.J. Simpson (2nd rd)
Juan Nunez (2nd rd)
Jamal Shead (2nd rd)
Tristen Newton (2nd rd)
Reece Beekman (2nd rd)

[Dat2U]

I think the narrative that this year’s draft is so much worse than the 2025 (and beyond) draft is overblown. Is there any evidence that outside of the top 2-3 picks (Flagg, Harper, Bailey) that next year’s draft is any deeper than the 2024 draft? There are good players in every draft, especially in the top 10-15 picks. You just have to be lucky/skilled enough to draft them.

It’s obnoxiously overblown. Buzelis, Collier, and Holland were just as hyped as Flagg, Harper, and Bailey before the season started. We have no clue how high school players will produce at the next level.

Said no one but NatP4. Can't find that opinion anywhere. Flagg & Bailey have long been on the radar as elite NBA prospects. Scouts have also was lamenting this HS class last year at this time.

[NatP4]

Not true at all. Buzelis was being compared to Durant, Holland to Paul George, and Collier to Baron Davis. Edwards, Bradshaw, and Wagner were all supposed to be lottery picks, turned out to be awful.

Walter, Cadeau, Mara, Almansa, and Castle also disappointed. The entire class underachieved in comparison to their rankings/projections.

[Frichuela]

Watching how clutch Maxey is I wonder if Dillingham could be a similar prospect…

[closg00]

Watching how clutch Maxey is I wonder if Dillingham could be a similar prospect…

I am convinced that Dillingham will be that guy eventually.

OMG does Maxey have "it", totally fearless, the anti-Beal.

[Jay81]

There is a lot of small guards dominating.
Brunson maxey…Edwards is only 6-4…kyrie Irving…Donovan Mitchell

Don’t over think it on dillingham and reed

[DCZards]

Maxey out there helping Dillingham get paid.

[nate33]

There is a lot of small guards dominating.
Brunson maxey…Edwards is only 6-4…kyrie Irving…Donovan Mitchell

Don’t over think it on dillingham and reed

Edward's coach says he has grown to 6'-6". He has a 6'-10" wingspan. Definitely not a small guard. I can't even think of many starting SG's who are bigger.

Donovan Mitchell has an incredible 6'-10" wingspan and is built like a tank. I wouldn't call him a small guard, particularly when he plays point. Cleveland's real small guard, Darius Garland, is averaging just 14, 6 and 4 and has a -10.9 on/off differential in the playoffs.

Kyrie is doing well, but he is part of the reason Dallas has a flawed roster. He isn't good enough to be the #1 option, so he has to be a #2. And it's really hard to find a #1 option who is also a good defender, so the end result is Dallas has two defensive liabilities they have to cover for. The only way to do that is with a bunch of exceptionally good defenders who can also hit 3's. But you can't afford exceptionally good 3&D players when you are paying your stars max money.

Maxey has the incredible good fortune of playing alongside an elite #1 option who isn't a defensive liability, so Philly can put 4 good defenders around him. Philly was 16-27 in the 43 games that Embiid missed.

Brunson is remarkable, truly one of my favorite players to watch. But even with him, you can see the problem. Thibs has no confidence in putting any non-defenders on the court alongside him so the Knicks offense is totally dependent on Brunson. Nobody else can do anything. Still, I'd say Brunson is the best-case scenario if you have a small guard. Most of the time, you will end up with a Trae Young, or Darius Garland situation.

I still wouldn't take Dillingham. I buy that he might be the best regular-season player in the draft, but I still don't think you can advance in the playoffs with a guy like that. Indeed, he might be detrimental to a rebuild because he might help us win too many regular season games ahead of schedule and convince management to go all in around him as our star. The next thing you know, we're the Atlanta Hawks.

[pancakes3]

Not true at all. Buzelis was being compared to Durant, Holland to Paul George, and Collier to Baron Davis. Edwards, Bradshaw, and Wagner were all supposed to be lottery picks, turned out to be awful.

Walter, Cadeau, Mara, Almansa, and Castle also disappointed. The entire class underachieved in comparison to their rankings/projections.

every HS player gets NBA player comps coming out but Cooper Flagg and Ace Bailey were household names starting when they were in 10th grade, like the Boozer twins now. You can call that narrative, or you can acknowledge that with all the eyeballs that the AAU circuit, college scouts, and NBA scouts have trained on U16 talent, when a kid is special, they identify it early.

[Jay81]

There is a lot of small guards dominating.
Brunson maxey…Edwards is only 6-4…kyrie Irving…Donovan Mitchell

Don’t over think it on dillingham and reed

Edward's coach says he has grown to 6'-6". He has a 6'-10" wingspan. Definitely not a small guard. I can't even think of many starting SG's who are bigger.

Donovan Mitchell has an incredible 6'-10" wingspan and is built like a tank. I wouldn't call him a small guard, particularly when he plays point. Cleveland's real small guard, Darius Garland, is averaging just 14, 6 and 4 and has a -10.9 on/off differential in the playoffs.

Kyrie is doing well, but he is part of the reason Dallas has a flawed roster. He isn't good enough to be the #1 option, so he has to be a #2. And it's really hard to find a #1 option who is also a good defender, so the end result is Dallas has two defensive liabilities they have to cover for. The only way to do that is with a bunch of exceptionally good defenders who can also hit 3's. But you can't afford exceptionally good 3&D players when you are paying your stars max money.

Maxey has the incredible good fortune of playing alongside an elite #1 option who isn't a defensive liability, so Philly can put 4 good defenders around him. Philly was 16-27 in the 43 games that Embiid missed.

Brunson is remarkable, truly one of my favorite players to watch. But even with him, you can see the problem. Thibs has no confidence in putting any non-defenders on the court alongside him so the Knicks offense is totally dependent on Brunson. Nobody else can do anything. Still, I'd say Brunson is the best-case scenario if you have a small guard. Most of the time, you will end up with a Trae Young, or Darius Garland situation.

I still wouldn't take Dillingham. I buy that he might be the best regular-season player in the draft, but I still don't think you can advance in the playoffs with a guy like that. Indeed, he might be detrimental to a rebuild because he might help us win too many regular season games ahead of schedule and convince management to go all in around him as our star. The next thing you know, we're the Atlanta Hawks.

lol---that actually is my biggest fear with Rob. He comes in averaging 20 points a game and we win too many games. I get what you are saying but these small bucket getters are still in the playoffs and contributing to their teams advancing. If you want to tank next season....your best bet is probably Sarr or Holland but the draft is risky and if you dont want to draft a bust...and get something from the pick...Rob/Reed might be your safest bet

[DCZards]

I agree that Edwards and Mitchell are not small guards.

What’s wrong with a Kyrie as a #2? They’re aren’t many small guards who don’t need to be with a bigger, better teammate to win.

Maxey is just about as important to Philly’s success as Embiid. Maxey is a great Robin to Embiid’s Batman.

I, for one, have a hard time wrapping my head around the idea that we should not draft a potential star player because we might win too many games and miss out on another star. My opinion is you have to obtain top talent whenever and wherever it’s available, especially young, cheap talent.

The last thing we should be thinking about doing is passing on top talent because we might win a few more games.

Dillingham can be part of a winning formula. I think he’ll be very similar to a Maxey or Fox…and that’s a good thing, imo.

I trust this FO to recognize Dillingham’s shortcomings and still make the right moves in the future and not necessarily build around him.

Mitchell, Brunson and Maxey all went much later in their drafts than they should have...in part because of their size. Now, they are all all-stars and top 5 in their draft class. There's a lesson to be learned there.

[NatP4]

Not true at all. Buzelis was being compared to Durant, Holland to Paul George, and Collier to Baron Davis. Edwards, Bradshaw, and Wagner were all supposed to be lottery picks, turned out to be awful.

Walter, Cadeau, Mara, Almansa, and Castle also disappointed. The entire class underachieved in comparison to their rankings/projections.

every HS player gets NBA player comps coming out but Cooper Flagg and Ace Bailey were household names starting when they were in 10th grade, like the Boozer twins now. You can call that narrative, or you can acknowledge that with all the eyeballs that the AAU circuit, college scouts, and NBA scouts have trained on U16 talent, when a kid is special, they identify it early.

And they get it wrong all the time. I mean, I still think Cunningham will be a good NBA player, but he was in that category for years. Compared to Luka, blue chip #1 prospect. They had guys like Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga in that elite basket. James Wiseman was a can’t miss top 2 elite prospect compared to Chris Bosh. Scoot Henderson was a 1A 1B with Wemby prior to the season.

You are right, Flagg and Bailey are regarded in a tier above Holland/Buzelis/Collier, but it’s a lot closer than people are letting on. Everything can change day 1 of the actual season.

I’m making two points here: 2024 group was much more highly regarded than it currently is at the end of the 2024 season, and high school scouting gets it way wrong all the time.

[NatP4]

Risacher has found the shooting stroke again:

4 consecutive double digit scoring games. 29 points on 12 shots in his last 2 games combined.

[closg00]

There is a lot of small guards dominating.
Brunson maxey…Edwards is only 6-4…kyrie Irving…Donovan Mitchell

Don’t over think it on dillingham and reed

Edward's coach says he has grown to 6'-6". He has a 6'-10" wingspan. Definitely not a small guard. I can't even think of many starting SG's who are bigger.

Donovan Mitchell has an incredible 6'-10" wingspan and is built like a tank. I wouldn't call him a small guard, particularly when he plays point. Cleveland's real small guard, Darius Garland, is averaging just 14, 6 and 4 and has a -10.9 on/off differential in the playoffs.

Kyrie is doing well, but he is part of the reason Dallas has a flawed roster. He isn't good enough to be the #1 option, so he has to be a #2. And it's really hard to find a #1 option who is also a good defender, so the end result is Dallas has two defensive liabilities they have to cover for. The only way to do that is with a bunch of exceptionally good defenders who can also hit 3's. But you can't afford exceptionally good 3&D players when you are paying your stars max money.

Maxey has the incredible good fortune of playing alongside an elite #1 option who isn't a defensive liability, so Philly can put 4 good defenders around him. Philly was 16-27 in the 43 games that Embiid missed.

Brunson is remarkable, truly one of my favorite players to watch. But even with him, you can see the problem. Thibs has no confidence in putting any non-defenders on the court alongside him so the Knicks offense is totally dependent on Brunson. Nobody else can do anything. Still, I'd say Brunson is the best-case scenario if you have a small guard. Most of the time, you will end up with a Trae Young, or Darius Garland situation.

I still wouldn't take Dillingham. I buy that he might be the best regular-season player in the draft, but I still don't think you can advance in the playoffs with a guy like that. Indeed, he might be detrimental to a rebuild because he might help us win too many regular season games ahead of schedule and convince management to go all in around him as our star. The next thing you know, we're the Atlanta Hawks.

There have been taller PG’s who were defensive liabilities as-well, or even taller guards. Tony Parker was 6”2 and got multiple rings, so who knows Dillinghams, or the 6”6 Topic’s fate, he may get roasted on D as-well in the NBA.