The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!

[pancakes3]

Not for nothing but Sarr's brother is basically the same size, played 3 seasons at Wake, 1 season at Kentucky, and is riding the bench for the Thunder currently.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/olivier-sarr-1.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/sarrol01.html

[DCZards]

Not for nothing but Sarr's brother is basically the same size, played 3 seasons at Wake, 1 season at Kentucky, and is riding the bench for the Thunder currently.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/olivier-sarr-1.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/sarrol01.html

There’s a reason Sarr’s brother went undrafted in 2021. A team would be foolish to judge Alex based on what his brother has or has not done.

[J-Ves]

More and more I think Holland is the pick for us. Quick first step, good lateral quickness, high motor on D, strong leaper, very young. He’s a developmental pick for sure, which may scare some teams away, but we have time. I’m actually surprised people are so down on him as a prospect in a weak draft class. He also seems like a Dawkins/Winger guy combining a strong work ethic with a impressive physical profile

[doclinkin]

More and more I think Holland is the pick for us. Quick first step, good lateral quickness, high motor on D, strong leaper, very young. He’s a developmental pick for sure, which may scare some teams away, but we have time. I’m actually surprised people are so down on him as a prospect in a weak draft class. He also seems like a Dawkins/Winger guy combining a strong work ethic with a impressive physical profile

I'm waiting on measurements. I think he is going to measure short in wingspan and standing reach. Which would be alright for a SF or Wing player but currently he's shooting 24% from outside, and just above 70% from the FT line which suggests he might not grow his own jumper.

I like his steals, hustle, activity, motor, athleticism. But if he has frontcourt-only skills without the reach and height to make it work then he's going to have a hard time succeeding at the next level. So far he's shown he's below average in rebounding, blocks, etc. We are already near last in rebounding, adding another front court player who is short in this stat seems like a problem.

If it's me I'd take Castle over Holland. Equivalent work ethic and hustle and defense, but with good length and size for the position. He too needs to add a jumper, but does enough of everything else at a high level that he can fit next to a gunner like Poole. Doesn't need to have the ball in his hands to add value. Importantly he wouldn't have to battle for PT since he adds something we don't already have at Guard: size and defense. Vs Holland who would have to scrap for minutes with Deni and Bilal, maybe Kuzma if he is not traded on draft day.

[daSwami]

Both times I've watched Holland play this season he's made multiple bone-headed plays - dumb stuff, like kneeling to tie his shoe while the ball is in play. He's incredibly fast and bouncy and he plays psychotically hard, but the dude gives me knucklehead vibes.

[NatP4]

Murray Boyles officially headed back to school. Another Tier 1 prospect IMO off the board.

[Dat2U]

I didn't love Holland or Collier initially in the draft process but when looking at the draft as a whole, they both start to look alot better.

My initial thought on Holland is a young Josh Howard. I think as he smooths out his skill (especially shot making) he can find a role as a 2nd/3rd option and be a plus defender.

Collier's talent reminds me of a rogue Jalen Suggs with scoring instincts & better shooting mechanics. Maybe faster straightline speed as well. Both aren't shifty or overly explosive but have a solid frame built for contact. He's gotta clean up his decision making (wild nonsensical passes) to fit as a lead guard.

Give me Holland & McCain
Or Dilly & de Silva

And I'm happy.

[daSwami]

Give me Holland & McCain
Or Dilly & de Silva

Yup. Dilly and da Silva (and Johni Broome in the second) I'd be happy, too.

[DCZards]

Give me Holland & McCain
Or Dilly & de Silva

Yup. Dilly and da Silva (and Johni Broome in the second) I'd be happy, too.

I’d be happy with Holland and McCain as well. But I don’t expect either to be available at pick 26. Both are likely to go in the top 15.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I didn't love Holland or Collier initially in the draft process but when looking at the draft as a whole, they both start to look alot better.

My initial thought on Holland is a young Josh Howard. I think as he smooths out his skill (especially shot making) he can find a role as a 2nd/3rd option and be a plus defender.

Collier's talent reminds me of a rogue Jalen Suggs with scoring instincts & better shooting mechanics. Maybe faster straightline speed as well. Both aren't shifty or overly explosive but have a solid frame built for contact. He's gotta clean up his decision making (wild nonsensical passes) to fit as a lead guard.

Give me Holland & McCain
Or Dilly & de Silva

And I'm happy.

What do you think about Arenas as a comp for Collier? Similar style and ability to drive and finish through contact. Gil was a bit faster, and Collier a bit bigger/stronger, but he does also have speed, and Gil also was strong.

The comp on NBA Draft Room is “bulky Stephon Marbury”.

[NatP4]

I mean besides the fact that Suggs was one of the best defensive guard prospects ever, and Collier is a total liability on that end.

And also Suggs putting up more rebounds, assists, blocks, steals, and less turnovers. Also took and made more 3s and was much more efficient overall, led his team to the National Championship game.

Collier did score 1 more point per 36 though.

[payitforward]

OTOH, obviously, for the guy who winds up being the best player in his draft class to be picked in that 5-10 range -- or significantly further down the ranks for that matter-- happens all the time.

In fact it's rare for the best player in a draft class to be picked in the top 3.

The best player in the draft is often in the top 3. It’s not rare.

2023: Victor W.
2022: Banchero or Holmgren
2020: Anthony Edwards
2019: Zion Williamson or Morant
2018: Luka Doncic? (or SGA not in top 3)
2017: Jayson Tatum
2012: Anthony Davis

Except that we don't "know" that Victor will be "the best" out of the '23 class -- it's too early to say that.

Rinse & repeat for '22 (& I sure don't think it's likely to be Banchero -- tho for sure Holmgren seems to be fantastic!)

As to '20, Anthony Edwards is definitely a good player, but Tyrese is way better, & you could argue that so are both Maxey (21) & Bane (30).

But... lets dig a bit deeper!

'03 LeBron -- yes
'04 Dwight -- yes
'05 no -- CP3 didn't go in the top 3 -- NO
'06 -- unclear Rondo, Lowry, Gay, Redick -- all equal to Aldridge (taken at 2)
'07 -- KD -- yes
'08 -- No & not even close
‘09 – No -- Curry (9)
‘10 – No -- George (10)
‘11 – No -- Kawhi (15) & Butler (30)
‘12 – No -- Dame (6)
‘13 –No -- Giannis (15)
‘14 – No -- Jokic
‘15 – No -- (Booker/14 )
‘16 – No -- (Sabonis / 11)
‘17 – yes (Tatum at 3), but both #1 & #2 were major disappointments. Ditto #4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12… -- only at 13 & 14 do we get to Mitchell & Bam. & much further down come the rest of the best players from what turned out to be an outstanding draft overall (19 – Collins; 22 – Jarrett Allen; 23 – Anunoby; 29 – Derrick White; 30 – Josh Hart)
‘18 – yes, Doncic. But, not Ayton, not Bagley, not Mo Bamba, not Carter, not Sexton, not Knox. That’s 6 failures out of the top 9 picks. Meanwhile R2 gave us 13 guys with successful NBA careers – including Jalen Brunson & Mitchell Robinson & Bruce Brown & Jarred Vanderbilt
'19 – Williamson has by no means lived up to the hype that got him picked at the top. Morant is stunning on court (but a problem off court). IMO, Garland (5) might be the best out of the 1-10 picks. & there are undrafted players from that year who have been better than more than half the lottery picks!


So... in 5 of the 20 drafts from 2003 - 2022 the best player went in the top 3. I don't think that's much of a pattern.

Still, you are right, Zards, that 5 out of 20 shouldn't be called "rare," so that was an overstatement on my part.

Could just say that, by and large, the best player in the draft isn't usually among the first 3 picks. Or, for that matter, in the first 5.

[payitforward]

Obviously, Collier would be an "upside potential" pick. Duh....

Will he realize that potential? Who knows?

Anthony Edwards in 2020 might be a useful comp. He worked out very well, obviously. But that doesn't mean Collier will do the same.

It ain't a science!

[NatP4]

Obviously, Collier would be an "upside potential" pick. Duh....

Will he realize that potential? Who knows?

Anthony Edwards in 2020 might be a useful comp. He worked out very well, obviously. But that doesn't mean Collier will do the same.

It ain't a science!

The top pick in the draft is a useful comp?

[nate33]

OTOH, obviously, for the guy who winds up being the best player in his draft class to be picked in that 5-10 range -- or significantly further down the ranks for that matter-- happens all the time.

In fact it's rare for the best player in a draft class to be picked in the top 3.

The best player in the draft is often in the top 3. It’s not rare.

2023: Victor W.
2022: Banchero or Holmgren
2020: Anthony Edwards
2019: Zion Williamson or Morant
2018: Luka Doncic? (or SGA not in top 3)
2017: Jayson Tatum
2012: Anthony Davis

Except that we don't "know" that Victor will be "the best" out of the '23 class -- it's too early to say that.

Rinse & repeat for '22 (& I sure don't think it's likely to be Banchero -- tho for sure Holmgren seems to be fantastic!)

As to '20, Anthony Edwards is definitely a good player, but Tyrese is way better, & you could argue that so are both Maxey (21) & Bane (30).

But... lets dig a bit deeper!

'03 LeBron -- yes
'04 Dwight -- yes
'05 no -- CP3 didn't go in the top 3 -- NO
'06 -- unclear Rondo, Lowry, Gay, Redick -- all equal to Aldridge (taken at 2)
'07 -- KD -- yes
'08 -- No & not even close
‘09 – No -- Curry (9)
‘10 – No -- George (10)
‘11 – No -- Kawhi (15) & Butler (30)
‘12 – No -- Dame (6)
‘13 –No -- Giannis (15)
‘14 – No -- Jokic
‘15 – No -- (Booker/14 )
‘16 – No -- (Sabonis / 11)
‘17 – yes (Tatum at 3), but both #1 & #2 were major disappointments. Ditto #4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12… -- only at 13 & 14 do we get to Mitchell & Bam. & much further down come the rest of the best players from what turned out to be an outstanding draft overall (19 – Collins; 22 – Jarrett Allen; 23 – Anunoby; 29 – Derrick White; 30 – Josh Hart)
‘18 – yes, Doncic. But, not Ayton, not Bagley, not Mo Bamba, not Carter, not Sexton, not Knox. That’s 6 failures out of the top 9 picks. Meanwhile R2 gave us 13 guys with successful NBA careers – including Jalen Brunson & Mitchell Robinson & Bruce Brown & Jarred Vanderbilt
'19 – Williamson has by no means lived up to the hype that got him picked at the top. Morant is stunning on court (but a problem off court). IMO, Garland (5) might be the best out of the 1-10 picks. & there are undrafted players from that year who have been better than more than half the lottery picks!


So... in 5 of the 20 drafts from 2003 - 2022 the best player went in the top 3. I don't think that's much of a pattern.

Still, you are right, Zards, that 5 out of 20 shouldn't be called "rare," so that was an overstatement on my part.

Could just say that, by and large, the best player in the draft isn't usually among the first 3 picks. Or, for that matter, in the first 5.

I gotta disagree with a bunch of these, or at least provide some context.

2023 - We do know that Wemby will be the best, barring a major injury. You may not know, but the rest of us do.
2022 - Banchero (#1) or Chet (#2)
2021 - Mobely (#3) or Barnes (#4) or Cade (#1) with a small chance that Green (#2) or Suggs (#5) or Trey Murphy III (#17) move up the ranks.
2020 - Edwards (#1) or Haliburton (#12) Every GM in the league takes Edwards over Maxey right now because of his two-way play. It's not even arguable.
2019 - Morant (#2) or Zion (#1). And even if you want to say Zion hasn't lived up to the hype, it's because of injuries.
2018 - Doncic (#3) or SGA (#11)
2017 - Tatum (#3)

So that's a 7 year run where the top 3 pick was the best, or at least arguably the best player in the draft. 7 straight years! So let's not act like the draft is a random crapshoot. High picks matter.

2016 - Sabonis (#11) might be best but it's certainly very close. Jaylen Brown (#3) and Ingram (#2) are very good. Nobody is disappointed in grabbing an all-star wing at the top of the draft. Simmons (#1) was also on a trajectory to be perhaps the best before whatever happened to him mentally.
2015 - I'll give you Booker (#13), but Karl-Anthony Towns at #1 was not a disappointment either. He was ROY and a 4-time All-Star.
2014 - Yes Jokic (a total fluke at #41) is the best, but Embiid at #3 would be the best in nearly any other draft.
2013 - No argument. It was a horrible draft, but IIRC, everyone knew it was a horrible draft going in. Sometimes a draft does not have any clear-cut top picks.
2012 - Davis (#1) is better than Lillard (#6). Or certainly he is more valuable given the scarcity of truly elite centers.
2011 - No argument. Kawhi and Butler are better than the best of the top 3 (Kyrie)
2010 - No argument. PG was best. But John Wall (#1) wasn't disappointing.
2009 - Curry at #7 was the best, but Griffin at #1 and Harden at #3 are two probable HOFers.
2008 - Rose #1, would have been the best if not for injuries. He was an All-Star in his 2nd, 3rd and 4th seasons, and MVP in his 3rd season.
2007 - KD #2. And Oden (#1) was actually real good except for the injuries. Horford at #3 is no slouch either.
2006 - What a horrible draft! Aldridge (#2) is still the clear best pick though, though Brandon Roy (#5) was on pace to be better until the injuries.
2005 - CP4 was best at #4, but Bogut (#1) would have been close if not for the injuries.
2004 - Howard (#1) was best

So this idea that the best player in the draft isn't usually in the top 3 is pretty conclusively disproven.
In the last 20 drafts, the top 3 pick was best or at least arguably the best in 12 out of 20 drafts:
2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2012, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2004.

And in 5 other drafts, a top 3 pick yielded multi-time All-Stars who would not in any way be considered disappointing:
2016, 2015, 2014, 2010, 2009.

So there are really only 3 out of 20 drafts where all 3 of the top 3 picks would be considered disappointing: 2013, 2011, 2005. And even that 2011 draft produced Kyrie, who only seems disappointing when compared to Kawhi and Butler, but would be fine in a normal draft.

All that said, I think it's true that in the one instance when the draft had no clear cut upper tier, it ended up being a bad draft for the top 3. That year was 2013. I think the 2024 draft is likely to be similar so I'm not expecting much out of the top 3 this time around either.

[nate33]

It's worth noting that the scouting appears to have become more accurate in the last decade or so. I'm not sure if it's just random luck, or if teams have gotten better in assessing overseas leagues and comparing them to college basketball. Accurate scouting makes high picks more valuable.

[Dat2U]

I didn't love Holland or Collier initially in the draft process but when looking at the draft as a whole, they both start to look alot better.

My initial thought on Holland is a young Josh Howard. I think as he smooths out his skill (especially shot making) he can find a role as a 2nd/3rd option and be a plus defender.

Collier's talent reminds me of a rogue Jalen Suggs with scoring instincts & better shooting mechanics. Maybe faster straightline speed as well. Both aren't shifty or overly explosive but have a solid frame built for contact. He's gotta clean up his decision making (wild nonsensical passes) to fit as a lead guard.

Give me Holland & McCain
Or Dilly & de Silva

And I'm happy.

What do you think about Arenas as a comp for Collier? Similar style and ability to drive and finish through contact. Gil was a bit faster, and Collier a bit bigger/stronger, but he does also have speed, and Gil also was strong.

The comp on NBA Draft Room is “bulky Stephon Marbury”.

I hesitate to put Collier on Gil/Starbury's level because Collier isn't the shooter they were and that's a huge part of the equation. Collier also has some wiggle but he is more straightline speed than a guy that's going to manipulate defenders with his handle like the guys you mentioned... at least early on.

[NatP4]

“Arguably” = supported by the random ideology I made up just now to back my argument.

[NatP4]

2020: Haliburton
2019: Morant/Zion-no argument
2018: Luka-no argument (again, was going to go 4th overall before the trade)
2017: Tatum -can easily argue Mitchell and Bam
2016: Sabonis or Siakam
2015: Booker
2014: Jokic
2013: Giannis
2012: Lillard
2011: Kawhi or Butler
2010: Paul George
2009: Curry
2008: Westbrook
2007: Durant-no argument
2006: Lowry
2005: Chris Paul
2004: Iguodala

14/17 drafts, best player was picked outside of the top 3. 15/17 in which you can make an argument.

2021 is unclear. Early argument for all of Sengun, Barnes, Mobley, Wagner.

2022: argument for Jalen Williams, Walker Kessler, Chet Holmgren.

2023: Wemby

So you can reverse frame it as 17/20 drafts in which arguably the best player was taken outside of the top 3.

[payitforward]

It's worth noting that the scouting appears to have become more accurate in the last decade or so. I'm not sure if it's just random luck, or if teams have gotten better in assessing overseas leagues and comparing them to college basketball. Accurate scouting makes high picks more valuable.

Above all, there's a ton MORE scouting. More effort. More technology. More money spent. & that makes great sense given that the players themselves cost so much more $$ than they once did.

That said, I'm not sure why you think the scouting has become more "accurate." If that were so, you'd expect closer alignment between pick position & long-term result. But, in fact, we just don't see that.

Look... this is just inherently not amenable to significant increases in accuracy -- beyond what you get from common sense increases in effort & resources devoted to the process.