Deni Avdija - Part II

[nate33]

There's a clear correlation between one or more of the big 3 not playing and Deni having good games, I'm surprised that's even still an argument.

It's a narrative, not "clear correlation". You haven't proven it to be true

On the season, Deni is posting a TS of .546 on a USG of 16.5

In minutes when all 3 of the Big 3 are out, he is posting a TS of .529 on a USG of 20.5.

When both Beal and Porzingis are out, he is posting a TS of .523 on a USG of 17.7
When both Kuzma and Porzingis are out, he is posting a TS of .522 on a USG of 18.6
When both Beal and Kuzma are out, he is posting a TS of .578 on a USG of 19.6

When not alongside Porzingis, he is posting a TS of .529 on a USG of 17.0
When not alongside Beal, he is posting a TS of .551 on a USG of 17.4
When not alongside Kuzma, he is posting a TS of .568 on a USG of 17.6

I'd say the only real trend is that he plays poorly when alongside Kuzma, and he plays well when alongside Porzingis. He is about the same whether or not he is alongside Beal.

Interestingly, the team trends in the exact opposite direction. It seems that whenever the teammates align so that Avdija plays well, the team plays poorly. And when Avdija is alongside guys that cause him to play poorly, the team fares better.

When he is with Kuzma, the team is +2.8.
When he is alongside Beal, they are +2.1.
When he is alongside Porzingis, they are +0.7

When he is alongside Beal and Kuzma, the team is +7.8
When he is alongside Beal and Porzingis, the team is +3.3
When he is alongside Porzingis and Kuzma, the team is +1.3

When he is alongside all 3, the team is +5.5

[Wizraeli]

It's a narrative, not "clear correlation". You haven't proven it to be true

I agree I haven't proven that, but you haven't either, in-spite of the work you put into checking the stats, what you've checked is how Deni performs when he's playing next to certain players on the court, but that's not what I claimed, I claimed he's better when he knows one or more of these players isn't going to be playing at all so he'll have more freedom to make mistakes, and you can add Hachimora to that list.

I'd say the only real trend is that he plays poorly when alongside Kuzma, and he plays well when alongside Porzingis. He is about the same whether or not he is alongside Beal.

And I'll agree that the negative effect of Kuzma on Deni or and the lack of the ball movement is much stronger than Beal and Porzingis, but again, that's not what I claimed.


And about proof, I think the last 5 games has proven a lot regarding Deni, as well as the games that followed Rui's trade, do you think his performance in these 5 games got nothing to do with Beal and Kuzma's absence? especially after he looked at times like the worst player in the league in the few games that came before them?

[dckingsfan]

It's a narrative, not "clear correlation". You haven't proven it to be true

I agree I haven't proven that, but you haven't either, in-spite of the work you put into checking the stats, what you've checked is how Deni performs when he's playing next to certain players on the court, but that's not what I claimed, I claimed he's better when he knows one or more of these players isn't going to be playing at all so he'll have more freedom to make mistakes, and you can add Hachimora to that list.

I'd say the only real trend is that he plays poorly when alongside Kuzma, and he plays well when alongside Porzingis. He is about the same whether or not he is alongside Beal.

And I'll agree that the negative effect of Kuzma on Deni or and the lack of the ball movement is much stronger than Beal and Porzingis, but again, that's not what I claimed.


And about proof, I think the last 5 games has proven a lot regarding Deni, as well as the games that followed Rui's trade, do you think his performance in these 5 games got nothing to do with Beal and Kuzma's absence? especially after he looked at times like the worst player in the league in the few games that proceeded them?

I don't buy into Deni being so mentally weak as he is adversely affected by if his teammates might play - at least, I should hope not.

Reminder: Deni "starting out the year well" should really be "meh, okay". Look at his offensive ratings for October/November, they aren't all that. Also, 3rd in total minutes or 6th in minutes per game both show he isn't in the doghouse. It just shows that you value Deni's playing time more than Wes values Deni's playing time. As a huge Deni fan, there were times where he was playing this year and I was hoping he wasn't going to be a complete bust - remember those games?

And no, the small sample size of the last 7 games where they went 2 of 7 does not a large sample make.

[Dolevi]

There's a clear correlation between one or more of the big 3 not playing and Deni having good games, I'm surprised that's even still an argument.

It's a narrative, not "clear correlation". You haven't proven it to be true

On the season, Deni is posting a TS of .546 on a USG of 16.5

In minutes when all 3 of the Big 3 are out, he is posting a TS of .529 on a USG of 20.5.

When both Beal and Porzingis are out, he is posting a TS of .523 on a USG of 17.7
When both Kuzma and Porzingis are out, he is posting a TS of .522 on a USG of 18.6
When both Beal and Kuzma are out, he is posting a TS of .578 on a USG of 19.6

When not alongside Porzingis, he is posting a TS of .529 on a USG of 17.0
When not alongside Beal, he is posting a TS of .551 on a USG of 17.4
When not alongside Kuzma, he is posting a TS of .568 on a USG of 17.6

I'd say the only real trend is that he plays poorly when alongside Kuzma, and he plays well when alongside Porzingis. He is about the same whether or not he is alongside Beal.

Interestingly, the team trends in the exact opposite direction. It seems that whenever the teammates align so that Avdija plays well, the team plays poorly. And when Avdija is alongside guys that cause him to play poorly, the team fares better.

When he is with Kuzma, the team is +2.8.
When he is alongside Beal, they are +2.1.
When he is alongside Porzingis, they are +0.7

When he is alongside Beal and Kuzma, the team is +7.8
When he is alongside Beal and Porzingis, the team is +3.3
When he is alongside Porzingis and Kuzma, the team is +1.3

When he is alongside all 3, the team is +5.5

Gotta say, the stats ain't surprising me. Kuz is sitting on "Deni's" role or Deni's best game as Point foward. When Kuz is out it's the best time for Deni to shine. And when KP around it also helps. The eye test confirms it from the games. About the team performance and not personal - that's really good question. Confusing.

[Wizraeli]

I don't buy into Deni being so mentally weak as he is adversely affected by if his teammates might play - at least, I should hope not.

Then what is your explanation to Deni's good consecutive games almost immediately after when Rui was traded and the recent Kuzma injury? I'm asking you what I asked nate, do you really think his performance in the last 5 games got nothing to do with Beal and Kuzma's absence?

Reminder: Deni "starting out the year well" should really be "meh, okay". Look at his offensive ratings for October/November, they aren't all that.

First of all the "start of the season" in the discussion about his leash is until the half of the Boston game, November is not relevant, although in November he actually performed better, but "meh, okay" compared to what? he started the season under the tag line of the "glue guy", not the top scorer of the team, the bottom line is that he got benched at that Boston game after having a good quarter but making one mistake on the buzzer at the end of the half, but forget Wes and the benching, I don't argue that Deni got enough minutes as the season progressed, the question is not about how many minutes he got but what he can do in those minutes and how much room he has to make mistakes.

Also, 3rd in total minutes or 6th in minutes per game both show he isn't in the doghouse. It just shows that you value Deni's playing time more than Wes values Deni's playing time.

I don't claim Wes got something against Deni and I already said "doghouse" is maybe a too harsh of a word, so there's no need to continue this line of argument, but regarding leashes, or room to make mistakes, playing time isn't everything, there are quality minutes and there are useless minutes, any way you'll look at it Deni's usage until Rui's trade was 15.3%, if he had that while getting a lot of minutes it only emphasis how much the ball didn't got to him when he was on the court during those minutes, and again, this is the 3rd year of a 22 years old that was declared as the future of this team.

And no, the small sample size of the last 7 games where they went 2 of 7 does not a large sample make.

Sample size for what? all I know is that in the last 5 games we're seeing a very different player, a player that looks like the Deni in the national team during the summer in the Eurobasket, the Deni that lead Israel's U20 to 2 consecutive European gold medals and was the Israeli league MVP, all I know is that when all of the big 3 are playing I don't see that player, so for me the conclusion regarding cause and effect is very simple, sample size or not.

[dckingsfan]

Then what is your explanation to Deni's good consecutive games almost immediately after when Rui was traded and the recent Kuzma injury? I'm asking you what I asked nate, do you really think his performance in the last 5 games got nothing to do with Beal and Kuzma's absence?

Small sample size. There have been some good games and some bad games interspersed throughout the season.

You are taking a small sample size and saying correlation = causation. You are asking the wrong questions in a macro sense.

The questions are:
1) Should Wes have played Deni more minutes to this point in the season?
2) Should Wes have featured Deni more in the offense when Porzingis/Beal/Kuzma were available?
3) When Deni is featured more in the offense should Deni produce more?
4) When Deni is featured more in the offense will the team win more games? How has this last 9 game streak gone?

You are starting with an assumption that this is Wes' fault for not featuring Deni more in the offense and pointing to this small sample size to prove your point. But this hasn't been a winning streak by any means, .333 winning percentage doesn't make your point.

Now, if Deni could really improve his 3-point shooting or develop a midrange game, cut down on turnovers and play agressive defense at the same over and extended period of time - well, I might get to tell Dat, Doc, etc., that we were right to draft Deni over Haliburton.

[payitforward]

Haliburton is a budding superstar; we will never have been "right" to draft Deni over Haliburton -- if by "right" you mean we picked the the guy who turned out to the better player of the two.

But, that's irrelevant. &, IMO, so is most of this nit-picking, wrangling exchange!

Players are never ever picked in the order of how good they turn out to be. There isn't a single draft where 15% of the players went at the "right" spot. In 2020, for example, off the top of my head, Haliburton "should" have gone first, Lamelo second, Desmond Bane 3d followed by a cluster of guys like Okoru, Okongwu, Josh Green, Maxey & Quickley -- & we haven't even gotten to the guys who went #1, 2, 4, 7 or 8. Deni's been better than every one of those five.

That's just the way it is.

Deni just turned 22 years old. He's played 2000 minutes this year. His numbers overall are better than they were last year. You'd like them to be better by a little more, but still... better is better.

Talking about how he's done in this or that stretch of a few games isn't particularly enlightening. Ditto whether he's better or worse with Kuzma on or off the floor. Overall, he's a whole lot better player than Kuzma -- not that that particular comparison means anything either....

As to "Deni has to..." this that or the other thing -- it's kind of obvious what the most immediate path would be to his becoming a significantly better NBA player: upping his 3-point %. But, I'm sorry, that's too obvious to count as "analysis." & you can't tell me he isn't working on shooting 3's better or that he won't spend significant time working on it this Summer. Of course he will.

Then, next year we'll get to see whether he continues to improve &, beyond that, whether he takes a significant jump.

[Wizraeli]

Small sample size. There have been some good games and some bad games interspersed throughout the season.

And for some "reason" the good streak of games where Deni looked the most stable this season happened immediately after Rui's trade with Deni scoring in double figures in 10 out of his next 13 games (76%) when before the trade he scored in double figures in 16 games out of 44 (36%), the next streak of stable games is the current one with 5/5 or 100% immediately after Kuzma's injury, before that Deni was 2 out of 12 (16%) between the previous streak and the current one, if you'll draw a graph you'll clearly see 2 points this season where Deni produces the most stable performances and it's Rui's trade and Kuzma's recent injury, this isn't a small sample size, it's 76 games where you can clearly see these 2 points.

The questions are:
1) Should Wes have played Deni more minutes to this point in the season?
2) Should Wes have featured Deni more in the offense when Porzingis/Beal/Kuzma were available?
3) When Deni is featured more in the offense should Deni produce more?
4) When Deni is featured more in the offense will the team win more games? How has this last 9 game streak gone?

So suddenly 9 games is a good enough sample size?

You speak in vague terms, what does "feature Deni more in the offense" means? should the team play in a playing style where they pass the ball more and the offense runs more through a number of different players including Deni? yes, definitely, should Deni become the leading star of the team and make all of the shots? no and I never asked for that.

You are starting with an assumption that this is Wes' fault for not featuring Deni more in the offense and pointing to this small sample size to prove your point. But this hasn't been a winning streak by any means, .333 winning percentage doesn't make your point.

I pointed out to the entire season and the 2 very clear dates where he had stable streaks of games.
First of all Deni isn't Lebron or Durant, you can't put a winning or loosing ratio solely on him, he's not that effective, yet, I hope, but even if you want to do that, we talked about the last 5 games, for some reason you raised that number to 7 and now you raised it again to 9, Kuzma and Beal played against Sacramento 6 games ago, not 9, Deni scored in that game 3 points with 1/9, Kuzma was out the next game against Orlando, 5 games ago, Deni scored 15, the next game both Kuzma and Beal were out, Deni scored 21.

The win / loose ratio in the last 5 games when Beal or Kuzma were out is 2/5 which is 40%, not 33%, and when both Beal and Kuzma were out it's 2/2, I don't know why you're counting 9 games, it's not relevant to what we're talking about.

Now, if Deni could really improve his 3-point shooting or develop a midrange game, cut down on turnovers and play agressive defense at the same over and extended period of time - well, I might get to tell Dat, Doc, etc., that we were right to draft Deni over Haliburton.

We both hope for this day, but my conclusion is that it's not going to happen if next season Deni will have the same role he had in the last 3 years and the team will continue to play in the same style it played so far, in his 4th year on the team a young player shouldn't wait for other players injuries in order to get a stable normal usage, I hope Deni finishing the season strongly will make the team realize he's a better investment over Kuzma.

[dckingsfan]

Again, the questions are:

1) Should Wes have played Deni more minutes to this point in the season?
2) Should Wes have featured Deni more in the offense when Porzingis/Beal/Kuzma were available?
3) When Deni is featured more in the offense should Deni produce more?
4) When Deni is featured more in the offense will the team win more games? How has this last 9 game streak gone?

Not all the hyperbola around a few games - especially when we are losing during those games. You are trying to make a case that Deni does better when he is the featured player (yes, most players will have better numbers). But you haven't made the case that the team is better much less far better.

And I disagree with PIF - I want Deni to become a budding start like Haliburton. But he has a long way to go on that account to just be an average NBA starter.

For 1) Maybe, not materially so.
For 2) Nope, and I cite Raptor, Deni's offense is at the bottom of the team (those that have played as many minutes).
For 3) Of course, when you are featured your numbers go up.
For 4) Nope.

If we want Deni to play more minutes and have a larger feature in the offense he will need to improve dramatically in a few areas. This is on Deni not on Wes.

If you want to focus on what Deni has done better this year on offense, it is finish at the rim - nice. And getting to the rim - nice. But he has shot worse from pretty much everywhere else on the court - and this with other teams leaving him uncontested at the 3.

Terrific that his assists went up during this period of being the primary ball handler and although his TOs are up, it is still a good trend. But he isn't a 2:1 guy yet. I think it would be nuts for Wes to have the offense not run through Porzingis and Beal if they are on the court. That relegates Deni back to a 3rd option - then he needs to hit the 3 to spread the floor - something he can't do yet.

Again, this is on Deni not on Wes. Deni isn't in Wes' doghouse.

[Wizraeli]

Not all the hyperbola around a few games - especially when we are losing during those games. You are trying to make a case that Deni does better when he is the featured player (yes, most players will have better numbers). But you haven't made the case that the team is better much less far better.

You are the one who's making hyperbolas...why did you choose 9 games? Kuzma and Beal played during some of those games, I'm still not hearing an explanation why you suddenly chose 9 games, what does "featured Deni more in the offense" means? did you explained that? no, why are you ignoring Deni's 13 games streak after Rui's trade? 13 games + 5 now are 18 games, these are not "a few games", that's a 1/4 of the season.

Again, the questions are:

Says who? you're not listening to what I'm saying, 3 out of 4 of those questions are not relevant to the claims I've made.
I did not claimed Deni needs to be the 1st or 2nd option, I did not claimed he needs to be the star of the team, I didn't claimed the team has won more with him getting more ball time, I'm getting tired of repeating that, either you don't read what I'm writing or you're intentionally ignoring it, I've said many times, the only things I claimed were:

1. Deni plays much better when he's not worried about being replaced and when the ball move more on offense, and as we've seen in both of his stretches, better for him means a completely different kind of player, and in-spite of what you're saying not all players will become a 15-5-5 and above players when they get to handle the ball more.

2. If Deni should be part of the team's future, the team needs to know how to incorporate him in the offense, no it's not all on him, not all young players can improve without the room to make mistakes, and he's clearly one of those players, other teams do rebuilding and usually let a lot more freedom to their top 10 picks, the Wiz decided they want to compete, but their star players are simply not good enough for that, so both they and Deni are stuck in the middle, they don't really compete but they also don't develop their young players.

I don't and never claimed the Wizards won more when Deni had higher usage, you can't look at a young player's stats and say "oh, when he's playing we're loosing, so let's not play him", developing young players is a process, putting everything on Deni and saying he needs to improve and then he'll get the ball more is ridiculous, Deni almost not getting the ball at all, if Casspi got a 15.7% usage in a championship team with 6 All-Stars then there's no reason Deni shouldn't get more than that on the current Wizards in his 3rd year when all of the "big 3" are playing, he doesn't and that's where the problem is, not his 3 pt percentages, he's shooting 47% in the last 5 games with 10/21 in 5 games, that's excellent, does it mean if we were in the middle of the season and tomorrow Beal and Kuzma would've played something would have been different? no, the team would have played exactly the same, no ball movement, no team play, that's not on Deni, that's on Wes, Beal, Kuzma and Tommy.

Terrific that his assists went up during this period of being the primary ball handler and although his TOs are up, it is still a good trend. But he isn't a 2:1 guy yet. I think it would be nuts for Wes to have the offense not run through Porzingis and Beal if they are on the court. That relegates Deni back to a 3rd option - then he needs to hit the 3 to spread the floor - something he can't do yet.

All of his stats went up significantly, 18.4 pts, 9.6 reb, 5.4 ast are good enough stats to justify those TOs, but who asked for the offense will not run through Porzingis and Beal? show me where I asked for that.

Deni isn't in Wes' doghouse.

I'm seriously starting to think you don't read what I'm writing, I referenced that in a previous comment, re-read it.

[FAH1223]

What does a contract extension for Deni look like?

I believe it was Josh Robbins who mentioned they are looking to extend him this summer.

[dckingsfan]

Point 1) small sample size - you pick 1, 3, 5, 9, 13 games. I don't care. They are 4-9 since we traded Rui and Deni got to play more. Deni is being featured - terrific. Let's see how this looks for the rest of the season. But Deni hasn't made this team materially better, a winning team.

Point 2) Reiterated - Deni is being featured more and is playing well. Terrific.

Point 3) When Beal comes back, the offense will run through Porzingis and Beal. Deni will get far less touches. If Kuz is back next year - it will be even more so. Deni will need to change his game or move back to the bench.

Point 4) Wes' decision not to feature Deni in the offense was more than justified.

Point 5) Wes has played Deni this season more than reasonable minutes (hence not in the doghouse - I know, you don't want me to repeat it but it is material to the entire argument). His rotations were justified given that his mission was to make the playoffs.

Point 6) It made sense not to start Deni given his 3 point shooting woes on offense and given the other mix of players.

Given all this, it is going to be on Deni to push someone out of the lineup. Given that Wes is going to continue to start Gafford/Porzingis, he will need to push out a PG or SF since he won't be able to push Beal out of the lineup.

So, this is going to be on Deni - as a Deni fan, I wish Wes would just play the youngsters but - then he would get fired.

I am guessing he isn't going to jump to the starting PG given who Wes is and given Morris/Wright/Goodwin are back next year.

So, he needs to beat out Kispert and Kuz (given he comes back). I think it is Kispert he really needs to beat out - having a 3 point shooter on the floor around Gafford/Porzingis/Beal makes the most sense.

We clearly don't agree on this. Given that - let's just agree to disagree and move on...

[badinage]

Let’s forget, for a moment, how he plays with certain others. Or without certain others.

What we saw the other night is — the pace was brisk; it was not plod-ball, like this team often plays. And he was dynamic. Even when he wasn’t running things as a point-4. The quicker, brisker style of play clearly suits him. And I think the most important thing this team can do is to involve him and maximize him. Good things will result.

It’s up to Unseld Jr. to recognize this. He hasn’t, to this point.

[2Fluffy4U]

Way too much text in this thread... came here for some updates and comments.. but my ADHD kicked in too soon..

[DCZards]

Point 3) When Beal comes back, the offense will run through Porzingis and Beal. Deni will get far less touches. If Kuz is back next year - it will be even more so. Deni will need to change his game or move back to the bench.

This is where I hope you’re wrong. I’ve argued against Deni being the starting PG or the primary ballhandler, but given that Deni has shown what he’s capable of doing when he does get the opportunity to handle the ball, next season I think it’s incumbent on Wes to ensure that he gets more opportunities to be a ballhandler and playmaker—even when he’s on the court with KP, Kuz and Beal.

It would be a mistake to not take advantage of Deni’s improving ability to take defenders off the dribble or find open teammates for easy hoops.

[Frichuela]

Point 3) When Beal comes back, the offense will run through Porzingis and Beal. Deni will get far less touches. If Kuz is back next year - it will be even more so. Deni will need to change his game or move back to the bench.

This is where I hope you’re wrong. I’ve argued against Deni being the starting PG or the primary ballhandler, but given that Deni has shown what he’s capable of doing when he does get the opportunity to handle the ball, next season I think it’s incumbent on Wes to ensure that he gets more opportunities to be a ballhandler and playmaker—even when he’s on the court with KP, Kuz and Beal.

It would be a mistake to not take advantage of Deni’s improving ability to take defenders off the dribble or find open teammates for easy hoops.

100%, Wes or (much better) if they get a replacement HC.

[dckingsfan]

Point 3) When Beal comes back, the offense will run through Porzingis and Beal. Deni will get far less touches. If Kuz is back next year - it will be even more so. Deni will need to change his game or move back to the bench.

This is where I hope you’re wrong. I’ve argued against Deni being the starting PG or the primary ballhandler, but given that Deni has shown what he’s capable of doing when he does get the opportunity to handle the ball, next season I think it’s incumbent on Wes to ensure that he gets more opportunities to be a ballhandler and playmaker—even when he’s on the court with KP, Kuz and Beal.

It would be a mistake to not take advantage of Deni’s improving ability to take defenders off the dribble or find open teammates for easy hoops.

100%, Wes or (much better) if they get a replacement HC.

Isn't this on Tommy/Ted first?

Assuming Wes stays, if they bring back Kuz, do we really think Wes will have Deni start? I would say no, unless we see a material change in Deni's game, right?

Or to say it another way, if you have Beal/Kuz/Porzingis starting - what do you need next to those guys? I would argue 3-point shooting to space the court.

[doclinkin]

Way too much text in this thread... came here for some updates and comments.. but my ADHD kicked in too soon..

GET back to Twitter where you belong!

[Wizraeli]

We clearly don't agree on this. Given that - let's just agree to disagree and move on...

We actually agree on a lot of things, we both want Deni to get Kuzma's spot, or at least be more involved, what we don't agree on is how it's going to happen, you think it should be, or going to be with Deni plowing his way through and pushing other players aside by having good performances while the big 3 are playing, what I think it should be, and probably isn't going to happen is the team will have an actual organized system of throwing its young players into the water, not only with minutes, but with actually having the ball in their hands and young prospects will have roles based on what they are expected to do in the future, not what they are doing right now.


My way isn't that uncommon, usually that's the way teams treat their top 10 picks, especially if the picks are already in their 3rd year, and especially if the team is rebuilding.


Deni has shown in the last 3 years that he's not going to push anyone out or step on anyone's toes, it's just not his personality, he's a nice guy that wants to play team ball, thinking he'll change his personality in his 4th year is optimistic, but I doubt it's going to happen, the last 3 years made me pessimistic about that, if Kuzma will stay I highly doubt next season will be any different for Deni, if he won't stay it's a different story, it will also be a statement from the team that they'll put the ball more on Deni's hands which is exactly what I think should happen.

[Dolevi]

Point 3) When Beal comes back, the offense will run through Porzingis and Beal. Deni will get far less touches. If Kuz is back next year - it will be even more so. Deni will need to change his game or move back to the bench.

This is where I hope you’re wrong. I’ve argued against Deni being the starting PG or the primary ballhandler, but given that Deni has shown what he’s capable of doing when he does get the opportunity to handle the ball, next season I think it’s incumbent on Wes to ensure that he gets more opportunities to be a ballhandler and playmaker—even when he’s on the court with KP, Kuz and Beal.

It would be a mistake to not take advantage of Deni’s improving ability to take defenders off the dribble or find open teammates for easy hoops.

Agreed!!