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The Official Kyle Kuzma Thread

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Re: WOJ: Kyle Kuzma re-signs with the Wizards for 4 years $102M 

Post#741 » by payitforward » Mon Jul 3, 2023 6:06 pm

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badinage wrote:Is it that he is an inefficient and irredeemable player, or that he’s playing for a poorly-constructed team and has to do too much? (Or feels he has to do, or is told he has to do.)

That is indeed the question.

Reigning Kuz in and demanding that he cutdown on ill-advised shots and careless turnovers is on Wes. I’m also hoping that Jones’ presence will change the way the Zards play and tamp down the recklessness of both Kuz & Poole.

Kuz is a talented player, but he has to learn to play smarter.

I guess we’ll have to wait and see if that happens.

Thing is, Kuz has been quoted over & over as wanting people to know he is not just a role player. He pretty clearly wants to be a "star." "The man."

In a sense, there's not much reason to worry the details of how good Kuz is. We are in the teardown stage of a complete rebuild, & Kuzma is only 2 years & 1 month younger than Bradley Beal. IMO the only question about Kuz is whether his contract will be tradable for value in 2-3 years, when we're maybe starting to become a better team.

Poole is quite a bit more important. He just turned 24. If he develops well this year he might well become part of our next core.
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Re: The Official Kyle Kuzma Thread 

Post#742 » by willbcocks » Mon Jul 3, 2023 6:51 pm

His advanced stats are all over the place.

Raptor says he was 122 out of 196 with 1500 minutes played last year. Their player projections prior to last year, so looking at his entire previous body of work, placed him in the "scrub" category and assigned him a 5 year market value of 13.3 million dollars, not 130 million. Basketball reference puts his offensive rating as 103 and his defensive rating as 117 last year. His WS/48 was .019. His VORP was 0.2. His RPM was quite high, ranking him 31 primarily on defense.
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Re: WOJ: Kyle Kuzma re-signs with the Wizards for 4 years $102M 

Post#743 » by pcbothwel » Mon Jul 3, 2023 7:36 pm

payitforward wrote:IMO the only question about Kuz is whether his contract will be tradable for value in 2-3 years, when we're maybe starting to become a better team.


I see the NBA market in 2 stages. Stage 1 was the incorporation of the punitive taxes on Lux Tax teams (along with other ins & Outs) that result in many teams showing trepidation about adding salary. This will carry over a bit to next summer as well.
Stage 2 will be in 2025 when the cap will spike to at least some degree with the new TV deal. In general, this tells me teams will try to slog through the next 18 months knowing that cap will spike and alleviate financial pressure.

To me, this means that Kuz will be very tradeable in the next two years assuming he is > Last years performance. But even if he underwhelms, I think he becomes movable in the last two years of his deal for very little.
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Re: The Official Kyle Kuzma Thread 

Post#744 » by doclinkin » Mon Jul 3, 2023 9:40 pm

Personally I think there is a solid chance Kuz embraces a different role with the team.

First: players in contract years tend to gun for stats. Everybody knows points per game is the primary stat that gets you paid. Efficiency be damned. Casual fans watch highlights and remember the nights when he did torch their team, you can sell seats with an incoming player who scores X per game, and hit that patented Klutch Kuz late game bail out three. Players in contract years tend to put up more FGA than they ordinarily do. In Kuz' case to something like 5 extra FGA/100 at times last year. Now: Kuzma got paid, as he said he would. He can now afford to think about other considerations, like wins. Or shaping the team.

Second: the leadership torch has passed. This is no longer "Brad's team". Kuz has played on a championship team and embraced his role on that squad. He clearly emulates much of what LeBJ exemplified in carrying that squad. Kuz is commonly seen talking on the sidelines with players about the game. As the team Vet, at age 27, he now wears every win and loss as his own. He's one of the few players on the team with a multi-year contract. Jordan Poole and Gafford are the only other players with guarantees past this year or their rookie deal. Kuz' future hinges on his ability to help young catch through a rebuild. Otherwise sure, maybe he gets swapped out, but for now that is his role: the old head on a really young squad.

Third: The Jordan Poole effect. Kuz will have an object lesson playing on court next to him of how maddening it can be when a player shoots you out of a game. Kuz in a leadership role may find himself trying to teach the young pup what is and is not a good shot. The way LeBJ helped guide him during the championship run. Often you learn the most while trying to teach. Kuz may find himself modeling better habits, rather than trying to outgun the young pup and match his shotjacking. Kuz has prided himself on the assists he earned in posting triple doubles. He tends to coach on the sidelines. If he helps Poole become a smarter player, it will make Kuz's life easier over the next few years.

Fourth: Coaching. This will be Kuz' 3rd year in Wes' system. Whatever the system is. It could be that he finds himself walking through the roles for players and telling them where they are supposed to be and when. Chemistry can take time. Kuz as a coach on the floor will help him see the game from the outside and understand better what his and other player's role should be.

Last: Point guard play. Tyus Jones is a gamer. Plays with a competitive edge and gravitas that teammates seem to respond to. He and Kuz are both 27. The two vets on the team (aside from back-ups Wright, Muscala, Gallo if he stays) they will both be charged with showing a young squad how to win. On court Kuz takes the job seriously. You don't catch him laughing and playing around all that much when he is on court. Tyus is a player that other teams mention as a solid guy. You figure Kuz will respect how he plays and try to match it.

In any case, for Kuz to be efficient, he only needs to not try to gun himself out of a cold streak. Thats it. If it's not your night, pick up the slack in other areas. If you miss 4 long range shots, stop. Just rebound and fight for putbacks, get your points elsewhere. Yes take a wide open shot when it comes, but stop forcing it on nights when the ball is bouncing out. Swing it to the next guy, stay in motion, get open. That small change would make all the difference.

Not guaranteeing this will happen, but the reason why age 27 is the average NBA prime is because by then you begin to understand the nuances of the game, and get a feel for what you can and can't do, should and should not. At 27 as an NBA player your experience and skill set tend to be closer in sync. Kuz is entering the prime 3 years of a player's career. We will see. Never know. We could get better results than he has put out in years past. Shrug.
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Re: The Official Kyle Kuzma Thread 

Post#745 » by FAH1223 » Mon Jul 3, 2023 9:58 pm

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Re: The Official Kyle Kuzma Thread 

Post#746 » by AFM » Mon Jul 3, 2023 11:07 pm

“Okay he’s not very good, and it was an overpay, but that just means we’ll be able to trade him for someone expensive later” is the newest Wizards cope.
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Re: The Official Kyle Kuzma Thread 

Post#747 » by Benjammin » Mon Jul 3, 2023 11:40 pm

AFM wrote:“Okay he’s not very good, and it was an overpay, but that just means we’ll be able to trade him for someone expensive later” is the newest Wizards cope.


And the reverse of that is, "Kuzma sucks and now we'll win too many games."
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Re: The Official Kyle Kuzma Thread 

Post#748 » by doclinkin » Tue Jul 4, 2023 12:05 am

Plus I'm by no means saying we will be good. Only that it is juuuust possible that Kuz is not a terrible example for young players. And takes fewer shots so there are more possessions available for young players.
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Re: The Official Kyle Kuzma Thread 

Post#749 » by payitforward » Tue Jul 4, 2023 12:28 am

nate33 wrote:If look at just the second half of 2021-22 (after Beal went down), and also ignore the final 14 games this season when he was playing hurt (judging by the multiple games missed during that stretch), Kuzma has averaged 22 points, 8.5 rebounds and 4 assists per 36, with 3 turnovers on a TS% of .560. while being an above-average defender at multiple positions. For most of the time, he was either the #1 or #2 focus of the opposition's defense.

I continue to be baffled at how so many of this board think this is awful production. The guy is a good player. He may think he is better than he is, but he is still quite good.

Actually, on the numbers his best run was early in the 2021-22 season.

Per 40 minutes in 2022-23, compared to last year, Kuz...

shot a lower TS%
got fewer defensive rebounds
got fewer offensive rebounds
turned the ball over more
got slightly fewer steals
blocked half as many shots
committed slightly more fouls

Now, maybe it was only or mostly the last 14 games that drove down Kuz's overall-season numbers, but one way or another they were notably worse than the previous year. Moreover -- put simply -- if a player takes a whole lot of shots, & he makes them at a notably below average rate, & he also turns the ball over a whole lot, it is simply not possible that he is "good." Period.

All the same, the last thing we need on the board right now is yet another argument about Kyle Kuzma. Therefore, even though he is a bad player not a good one, & certainly one of the worst on the team last season (no one else who played even close to major minutes was anywhere near as bad as Kuz), I am all the same not going to belabor the point.

For that matter, the better he is this year, the more tradable he is, which is a good thing, obviously.
Hence, I have an interest in Kyle Kuzma being "good" not "bad" in the coming season, I'm rooting for him, & I hope that's how it turns out.
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Re: The Official Kyle Kuzma Thread 

Post#750 » by payitforward » Tue Jul 4, 2023 12:32 am

NatP4 wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:
NatP4 wrote:For all his flaws, he's not really a ball stopper on offense, Beal was that guy. Kuzma tries to make the right play and encourages the other young players to be confident.


This is something I think is really important. Professional sports have gotten so micromanaged due to the immense amount of money and analytics, that sometimes young athletes have trouble knowing their "role".
What I love about Kuz is that he seems to just "Ball" and take what he sees. Open court in transition, he takes it to the basket. Open 3, shoot it. Mismatch with smaller player, play bully ball.
Some guys are so caught up with their role/directive, that they forget to stay in the moment and take what is in front of them. Guys like Deni and Bilal will do well with Kuz.
Again, this doesnt always result in success, but I like the mentality and Deni seemed to take to it pretty well at the end of last year.


You always put it into words far better than I can, but fully agree. Kuzma just plays, and Poole is similar in that regard. Never has struck me as a selfish player with an inflated ego.

We saw Kuzma tweeting encouragement at Coulibaly before the draft even occurred. Think he empowers the younger players to play confidently and freely. Will help guys like Bilal, Deni, and Davis like you said.

Doesn’t always translate directly to winning, but we aren’t trying win anything for atleast the next couple of years.

All extremely solid points. Go Kuz!!
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Re: The Official Kyle Kuzma Thread 

Post#751 » by Kanyewest » Tue Jul 4, 2023 3:20 am

NatP4 wrote:
nate33 wrote:If look at just the second half of 2021-22 (after Beal went down), and also ignore the final 14 games this season when he was playing hurt (judging by the multiple games missed during that stretch), Kuzma has averaged 22 points, 8.5 rebounds and 4 assists per 36, with 3 turnovers on a TS% of .560. while being an above-average defender at multiple positions. For most of the time, he was either the #1 or #2 focus of the opposition's defense.

I continue to be baffled at how so many of this board think this is awful production. The guy is a good player. He may think he is better than he is, but he is still quite good.


I don't think anyone thinks that is awful production. Rather, no-one is focusing on a 20 game sample from 2 years ago, and ignoring the other 380+ games he has played in.

RPM, EPM, Raptor and his On/Off differential all indicate that he was pretty good last year though. Maybe throw him in the 60th-70th best player in the league range. Fine as a 3rd-4th option on a playoff team, average starter, solid rotation player.

I've somewhat come around on the signing. 25/per is not all that bad, he at-least plays hard and is seemingly liked by his teammates, and brings some relevancy to the Wizards organization. We can expect him to put 22-8-4 type numbers and be a trade-able asset in a couple of years.

For all his flaws, he's not really a ball stopper on offense, Beal was that guy. Kuzma tries to make the right play and encourages the other young players to be confident.



Beal had a better TS%, more assists, a better 3 point percentage. Beal and Kuzma averaged essentially the same number of field goal attempts and assists. Maybe did a better job encouraging guys like Deni though but he's significantly worse than Beal on the offensive end.
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Re: The Official Kyle Kuzma Thread 

Post#752 » by FAH1223 » Tue Jul 4, 2023 8:54 am

payitforward wrote:So... Kuz is a Wizard. With a 4-year contract -- which, to me at least, means he'll be with us for a while. Yet, at least on the basis of the usual per 40 minute numbers, Kuz is by no means a good player. In fact, last year he was really really bad.

So, perhaps it behooves us to consider what made him bad, &, more importantly, what Kuz could do to get better.

Kuz is a combo forward, so it makes some sense to orient our understanding of him by comparing his numbers to NBA 3s & 4s both.

If you look at Kuz's defensive rebounding, assists, blocks, steals & fouls, his numbers are better overall than an average NBA 4 -- & even more better than an average 3.

OTOH, Kuz is a relatively weak offensive rebounder -- but, still, even including those numbers -- he remains more productive than an average NBA 3, & he's almost exactly at the level (on all those numbers) of an NBA 4.

So... why isn't he a good player?
Pretty simple, really -- his scoring & his turnover rate.

Let's start with the latter: on average an NBA 4 turns the ball over 2 times per 40 minutes. An NBA 3 isn't much different: 1.9 times.

Kuz turned the ball over @3.42 times per 40 minutes -- almost 1.5 more times. Based on the NBA average TS% those extra turnovers cost the team @1.6 points. That may not seem like much at first glance, but once you realize that we were only down 1.2 points per game to the league last year, its significance becomes clear.

So that's the first problem.

Kuz's scoring efficiency is the other one.

Kuz scored 5.9 more points per 40 minutes than an average NBA 4 & 6.15 more than an average NBA 3. Sounds good, right? Actually, no, it's not good. To get 5.9 more points than an average 4, Kuz to use @6.55 more possessions (FGAs + 1/2 FTAs) than an average NBA forward. IOW, on those extra points, Kuz's TS% was .454.

So, there you are: last year, for a return of 5.9 points more than average, Kuz used just over 6.5 more possessions than average (extra turnovers & shots/ftas). That's a formula that piles up losses.

To become a good player, he needs to change that. Above all, he needs to shoot less. A lot less. At least 25% - 30% fewer shots than last year.

The problem is that he's far more likely to take way more shots than to take any fewer!

Then again... we're tanking. So it's all good! :)


While Kyle has hit some clutch shots, his TS% in the clutch was only 42%. Conversely, Beal had a 68% TS% in the clutch for 2022-23. Kuzma averaged 2.7 turnovers per 100 possessions in the clutch vs. 0.4 assists. Beal was at 6.3 turnovers per 100 possessions vs. 4.4 assists in the clutch.

Kyle had a turnover rate of 10% in the clutch.
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Re: The Official Kyle Kuzma Thread 

Post#753 » by nate33 » Tue Jul 4, 2023 2:26 pm

Kanyewest wrote:
NatP4 wrote:
nate33 wrote:If look at just the second half of 2021-22 (after Beal went down), and also ignore the final 14 games this season when he was playing hurt (judging by the multiple games missed during that stretch), Kuzma has averaged 22 points, 8.5 rebounds and 4 assists per 36, with 3 turnovers on a TS% of .560. while being an above-average defender at multiple positions. For most of the time, he was either the #1 or #2 focus of the opposition's defense.

I continue to be baffled at how so many of this board think this is awful production. The guy is a good player. He may think he is better than he is, but he is still quite good.


I don't think anyone thinks that is awful production. Rather, no-one is focusing on a 20 game sample from 2 years ago, and ignoring the other 380+ games he has played in.

RPM, EPM, Raptor and his On/Off differential all indicate that he was pretty good last year though. Maybe throw him in the 60th-70th best player in the league range. Fine as a 3rd-4th option on a playoff team, average starter, solid rotation player.

I've somewhat come around on the signing. 25/per is not all that bad, he at-least plays hard and is seemingly liked by his teammates, and brings some relevancy to the Wizards organization. We can expect him to put 22-8-4 type numbers and be a trade-able asset in a couple of years.

For all his flaws, he's not really a ball stopper on offense, Beal was that guy. Kuzma tries to make the right play and encourages the other young players to be confident.



Beal had a better TS%, more assists, a better 3 point percentage. Beal and Kuzma averaged essentially the same number of field goal attempts and assists. Maybe did a better job encouraging guys like Deni though but he's significantly worse than Beal on the offensive end.

Beal is a better offensive player, but it's worth pointing out that 20+ point production from the PF spot is more valuable than getting it from the SG spot. It's not hard to find scoring guards. It's much harder to find scoring forwards who also hold their own defensively.
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Re: The Official Kyle Kuzma Thread 

Post#754 » by Kanyewest » Tue Jul 4, 2023 3:00 pm

nate33 wrote:
Kanyewest wrote:
NatP4 wrote:
I don't think anyone thinks that is awful production. Rather, no-one is focusing on a 20 game sample from 2 years ago, and ignoring the other 380+ games he has played in.

RPM, EPM, Raptor and his On/Off differential all indicate that he was pretty good last year though. Maybe throw him in the 60th-70th best player in the league range. Fine as a 3rd-4th option on a playoff team, average starter, solid rotation player.

I've somewhat come around on the signing. 25/per is not all that bad, he at-least plays hard and is seemingly liked by his teammates, and brings some relevancy to the Wizards organization. We can expect him to put 22-8-4 type numbers and be a trade-able asset in a couple of years.

For all his flaws, he's not really a ball stopper on offense, Beal was that guy. Kuzma tries to make the right play and encourages the other young players to be confident.



Beal had a better TS%, more assists, a better 3 point percentage. Beal and Kuzma averaged essentially the same number of field goal attempts and assists. Maybe did a better job encouraging guys like Deni though but he's significantly worse than Beal on the offensive end.

Beal is a better offensive player, but it's worth pointing out that 20+ point production from the PF spot is more valuable than getting it from the SG spot. It's not hard to find scoring guards. It's much harder to find scoring forwards who also hold their own defensively.


Interestingly enough, if it is 21 ppg though it isn't much different in terms of difficulty (which is what Kuzma averaged)

SGs
SGA
Donovan Mitchel
Zach Lavine
Anthony Edwards
Jalen Green
Desmond Bane

PFs
Giannis
Lauri Markkannen
Julius Randle
Paskal Siakim
Jimmy Butler
Bojan Bogdonovic
Porzingis

But yeah if, you increase the treshhold to 20 ppg - then the number of shooting guards are much gerater (Harden McCollum, Clarkson, Murray, Herro, Rozier to Banchero/Jerami Grant).

Still, Kuzma should have a much higher TS%. Randle has the lowest the lowest TS% among power forwards at 58% - all other are north of 60%. Shooting guards tend to have lower efficiency.
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Re: The Official Kyle Kuzma Thread 

Post#755 » by payitforward » Tue Jul 4, 2023 4:13 pm

Actually, on average, SGs only score @1.33 more points per 40 minutes than do PFs. But, you're still right in general, because PFs on average post a higher TS% than SGs, meaning that if the two score the same number of points in a game it's likely that the PF has done it on fewer possessions -- leaving more possessions for the rest of the team to use & score.

Now... it's not clear that the point has much bearing in this instance b/c of Kuzma's lousy TS%. :(
OTOH, Kuzma's value on defense is meaningful but much harder to quantify.

Kuz & Cam Johnson just got pretty similar new contracts, but Johnson is a much much better player than Kuz. It's not close.

But, here's the thing...

Spoiler:
I don't think Kuz was re-signed for his basketball prowess.
I don't think his contract is even intended to reflect his impact on winning. Not at all. I.e. I don't think -- can't imagine, actually! -- that Winger & Dawkins are so far off mark that they over-estimate Kyle Kuzma as a player.

So what? We are just at the very beginning of a multi-year rebuild from the ground up. We are going to be bad, & being bad we are going to collect a lot of draft capital. So what if Kuz doesn't make us better? Our draft capital will be all the better.

But in that case, why sign him?
I think Kuz was re-signed for his marketability. His entertainment value. The ability to make him the face of the franchise during this period -- the talking head as it were.

Kuz is charming, articulate, & entertaining. Given a roster absent its two biggest "stars," absent any recognizable players, with no chance of significant competitive success for some years, those qualities are going to matter a lot! Kuz will be the face of the Wizards. He'll be doing more media interaction than he's ever done, more in fact than anyone on, or even connected with, the team.

That's why they wanted him. & it's also why he chose to return. Kyle Kuzma is is incredibly self-aware & strategic. On the Wizards this year, he is going to get more opportunities to build his brand than he's ever had.

Great for both sides!
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Re: The Official Kyle Kuzma Thread 

Post#756 » by DCZards » Tue Jul 4, 2023 4:55 pm

payitforward wrote:Actually, on average, SGs only score @1.33 more points per 40 minutes than do PFs. But, you're still right in general, because PFs on average post a higher TS% than SGs, meaning that if the two score the same number of points in a game it's likely that the PF has done it on fewer possessions -- leaving more possessions for the rest of the team to use & score.

Now... it's not clear that the point has much bearing in this instance b/c of Kuzma's lousy TS%. :(
OTOH, Kuzma's value on defense is meaningful but much harder to quantify.

Kuz & Cam Johnson just got pretty similar new contracts, but Johnson is a much much better player than Kuz. It's not close.


I disagree with that last part about Johnson being
“much much better” than Kuz, especially when Kuz is clearly the better passer, rebounder and playmaker.

But since we’ll NEVER totally agree on the standards for evaluating players it’s best that we don’t even debate it. :)
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Re: The Official Kyle Kuzma Thread 

Post#757 » by payitforward » Tue Jul 4, 2023 8:01 pm

DCZards wrote:
payitforward wrote:Actually, on average, SGs only score @1.33 more points per 40 minutes than do PFs. But, you're still right in general, because PFs on average post a higher TS% than SGs, meaning that if the two score the same number of points in a game it's likely that the PF has done it on fewer possessions -- leaving more possessions for the rest of the team to use & score.

Now... it's not clear that the point has much bearing in this instance b/c of Kuzma's lousy TS%. :(
OTOH, Kuzma's value on defense is meaningful but much harder to quantify.

Kuz & Cam Johnson just got pretty similar new contracts, but Johnson is a much much better player than Kuz. It's not close.


I disagree with that last part about Johnson being
“much much better” than Kuz, especially when Kuz is clearly the better passer, rebounder and playmaker.

But since we’ll NEVER totally agree on the standards for evaluating players it’s best that we don’t even debate it. :)

In any case, it's not an important debate, since we didn't choose between the two guys.

OTOH, it really isn't even close, Zards

https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?player_id2=johnsca02&p1yrfrom=2023&player_id1=kuzmaky01&p2yrfrom=2023&request=1&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison&utm_source=bbr&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_id=kuzmaky01

TS%: Cam Johnson .60 vs. Kuz .545
That's not a small difference, Zards; it's an enormous difference. Yet, even that difference doesn't capture the delta between the two of them on offense.

In 36 minutes, to get 19.1 points for his team, Kuz uses 16.1 possessions by way of FGAs & another 1.65 possessions from the line (i.e. 1/2 his FTAs). OTOH, he gets 1.2 offensive boards which, in effect, are extra possessions & so can be thought of as reducing the total he uses up. In that same offensive effort, he also turns the ball over 2.4 times. Then again, he also gets .7 steals.

The total possessions Kuz takes up in 36 minutes is 18.25 -- in return for which he gives his team 19.1 points.
That's his real offensive efficiency.

OTOH, in 36 minutes, to get 16.3 points for his team, Cam Johnson uses 12.6 possessions by way of FGAs & another 1.1 possessions from the line (i.e. 1/2 his FTAs). OTOH, he gets 1.1 offensive boards which, in effect, are extra possessions & so can be thought of as reducing the total he uses up. In that same offensive effort, he also turns the ball over 1 time. Then again, he also gets 1.2 steals.

Thus, the total possessions Cam Johnson takes up in 36 minutes is 12.4 -- in return for which he gives his team 16.3 points.

IOW, to give his team 2.8 more points than Cam Johnson, Kyle Kuzma has to use up 6.25 more possessions than Cam.

OTOH, Kuz gets more defensive boards than Johnson & delivers more assists. Overall, however, it isn't really close: Cam Johnson is a far better player than Kyle Kuzma.
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Re: The Official Kyle Kuzma Thread 

Post#758 » by DCZards » Tue Jul 4, 2023 8:48 pm

Good try PIF… but I believe that numbers alone will never truly capture the totality of a player’s performance or tell you everything you need to know about his impact on his team’s and teammates’ performance. I guess that’s where we will always differ.
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Re: The Official Kyle Kuzma Thread 

Post#759 » by dckingsfan » Tue Jul 4, 2023 10:55 pm

payitforward wrote:
DCZards wrote:
payitforward wrote:Actually, on average, SGs only score @1.33 more points per 40 minutes than do PFs. But, you're still right in general, because PFs on average post a higher TS% than SGs, meaning that if the two score the same number of points in a game it's likely that the PF has done it on fewer possessions -- leaving more possessions for the rest of the team to use & score.

Now... it's not clear that the point has much bearing in this instance b/c of Kuzma's lousy TS%. :(
OTOH, Kuzma's value on defense is meaningful but much harder to quantify.

Kuz & Cam Johnson just got pretty similar new contracts, but Johnson is a much much better player than Kuz. It's not close.


I disagree with that last part about Johnson being
“much much better” than Kuz, especially when Kuz is clearly the better passer, rebounder and playmaker.

But since we’ll NEVER totally agree on the standards for evaluating players it’s best that we don’t even debate it. :)

In any case, it's not an important debate, since we didn't choose between the two guys.

OTOH, it really isn't even close, Zards

https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?player_id2=johnsca02&p1yrfrom=2023&player_id1=kuzmaky01&p2yrfrom=2023&request=1&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison&utm_source=bbr&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_id=kuzmaky01

TS%: Cam Johnson .60 vs. Kuz .545
That's not a small difference, Zards; it's an enormous difference. Yet, even that difference doesn't capture the delta between the two of them on offense.

In 36 minutes, to get 19.1 points for his team, Kuz uses 16.1 possessions by way of FGAs & another 1.65 possessions from the line (i.e. 1/2 his FTAs). OTOH, he gets 1.2 offensive boards which, in effect, are extra possessions & so can be thought of as reducing the total he uses up. In that same offensive effort, he also turns the ball over 2.4 times. Then again, he also gets .7 steals.

The total possessions Kuz takes up in 36 minutes is 18.25 -- in return for which he gives his team 19.1 points.
That's his real offensive efficiency.

OTOH, in 36 minutes, to get 16.3 points for his team, Cam Johnson uses 12.6 possessions by way of FGAs & another 1.1 possessions from the line (i.e. 1/2 his FTAs). OTOH, he gets 1.1 offensive boards which, in effect, are extra possessions & so can be thought of as reducing the total he uses up. In that same offensive effort, he also turns the ball over 1 time. Then again, he also gets 1.2 steals.

Thus, the total possessions Cam Johnson takes up in 36 minutes is 12.4 -- in return for which he gives his team 16.3 points.

IOW, to give his team 2.8 more points than Cam Johnson, Kyle Kuzma has to use up 6.25 more possessions than Cam.

OTOH, Kuz gets more defensive boards than Johnson & delivers more assists. Overall, however, it isn't really close: Cam Johnson is a far better player than Kyle Kuzma.

Much should be changed to just better. Cam Johnson is a better value. Just wasn't a good signing - #soWizards - snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. We "almost" did it.
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Re: The Official Kyle Kuzma Thread 

Post#760 » by payitforward » Wed Jul 5, 2023 2:52 am

DCZards wrote:Good try PIF… but I believe that numbers alone will never truly capture the totality of a player’s performance or tell you everything you need to know about his impact on his team’s and teammates’ performance. I guess that’s where we will always differ.

Do you think numbers alone fully explain who won or lost a game & why? :)

When the game ends, do the refs have to have a discussion to determine the winner, or can they simply look up at the scoreboard & read the numbers.

OTOH, even if numbers *alone* don't do the trick for you -- are you saying that Cam's .601 TS% compared to Kuz's .544 TS% doesn't tell you anything about the two guys?

Aren't you maybe being a little inconsistent? I.e. you wrote that Kuz was "a much better passer" than Cam. Now... where'd you get that? From Kuz's assist numbers I would guess. You also called him a better rebounder -- based again on a number & nothing else.

So... why don't Cam's far better FG% (2s & 3s), & his far better FT%, & his way fewer number of turnovers, etc. etc. etc.... why don't those numbers get the weight you want to give to Kuz's higher number of boards...?

No need to answer, & no need for a dispute.
Knowing you for 10 years now (!) I'd be willing to wager that if Cam Johnson were a Wizard while Kuzma had gone from the Lakers to, say, Brooklyn rather than here, your estimation would be different. But, of course, I'll never have a way to prove that, & anyway... so what?

No one's life changes depending on any of our judgments. Just a game, & we're just fans. But still... I'm right!
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