The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!

[payitforward]

...Kuminga was terrible in his first two seasons, but he played pretty well in Year 3 with solid statistical production, good one-on-one defense, and a +3.0 on/off differential....

I don't get this. Seems wrong on both your parts.

Kuminga does not "put up a ton of box score numbers," not even this year. Compared to the NBA average at his position, he committed more fouls, blocked fewer shots, turned the ball over more, & grabbed fewer rebounds. His TS% was 1% higher than average, it is true. But, once you figure in the turnovers & low rebounding the overall result doesn't look good.

Don't get me wrong: Jonathan Kuminga is still only 21 years old! He may develop into a terrific player.

Compared to the previous year, his USG jumped 25% with no loss in scoring efficiency and a significant decline in turnover percentage. Meanwhile his rebounding improved as did his defense. He improved by PER, BPM, WS/48 and VORP. And he was doing it as a starter with a heavier minute load and heavier responsibility. The only real decline was in 3P%, which, at his low volume, is mostly just statistical noise.

Good stuff -- thanks!

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I think they want Sarr to pair with Vukcevic, and will look to #26 for a young PG that will spend some time in the G-league next year. guys like Devin Carter, Tyler Kolek, and KJ Simpson are some great options in that range.

Still like the idea of trading down with Portland for #5&#14 if we land the top pick. Would still go Topic or Sheppard at #5, Filipowski, Holmes, or Devin Carter at #14, or package #14&#26 to move up and get Buzelis/Clingan in the 8-12 range.

I think my dream scenario would be a trade down with Utah. Our top pick + 52 for 8, 29, 32.

Then rake in an all upside draft of Cody Williams or Kyshawn George at 8, Ware at 26, Carrington at 29, and draft and stash Dadiet at 32.

Don’t like this for us, there is too-high a likely hood that we miss-out on the Top-7 players at top, Ware is likely gone before 26, and we end up tanking for Keyshawn George, that’s a bad scenario for me.

I hear ya. Just curious who are you eyeing in the top 7? I wouldn’t be surprised if Castle falls to 8 to be honest.

We could always take Ware at 8, Carrington 26, Nikola Durišić at 29 draft and stash, and Dadiet at 32 draft and stash. All upside, we’re going to be bad next year anyway.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I would go for Holmes and trade up a few spots if I have to. Productive as a freshman, sophomore, and junior. Carried an awful mid major team all year. Was a big time recruit out of high school. Can play the 4/5, still only 21 years old on draft night.

Produces steals, blocks, rebounds, positive A/TO ratio, draws an absurd amount of free throws, developed a passable 3pt shot this year. Projects to be a floor spacer in the NBA. Crazy underrated defensively. Can slide his feet and defend the perimeter, has great feel for team defense and can provide rim protection/paint defense. Seemingly checks all the character/work ethic boxes.

I think he’s a future high end starter. Mixture of Al Horford/Pascal Siakam.

Yeah I like Holmes. Really, what's not to like? Excellent defender, long, athletic, plays hard, gets rebounds, has that dog in his game, physical, doesn't back down. Skilled, can shoot and handle the ball for a big man. Especially when compared to other bigs like Missi & Bona, Holmes is much more offensively polished and versatile. He can pick and pop, he can shoot out to 3, midrange, has low post moves, up and unders, spin moves, can score with finesse or with power, can get above the rim with athletic dunks and bring the hammer. Probably more of a 4 than a true 5, but is an ideal small ball 5 with his length and shot blocking. Would be a perfect match with Vukcevic either as his backup or playing next to him. He's the type of player we need and we've lacked for a while. I'd definitely be happy with him at 26.

It'll be interesting how Holmes fares in private workouts. He looks great by the eye test, and his numbers are terrific. The only issue is that the competition in his league stinks and he's a little old. It would be nice to see how he stacks up against better players. Overall, I like him. I think he can get better still just by spending some time with NBA trainers to work on his balance and core strength. He is athletic and bouncy but looks a little top-heavy and unbalanced at times. That can improve. He gives me Pascal Siakam vibes.

Years ago, Paul Millsap carried a bad mid-major team. The numbers he sustained over time didn't lie.

Sent from my SM-A146U using RealGM mobile app

[NatP4]

Same goes for Pascal Siakam. Could be a reason that Holmes turns out to be a steal.

[doclinkin]

Such weird comparisons out there for Topic.
Rubio: 14.8 points 9.5 assists 4.5 rebounds 5.0 turnovers 3.6 steals 55.2% TS in the ACB league. Similar level of comp and age as Topic.

No way on this part. The Spanish league is the 2nd best domestic league in the world. Significantly above the NBL even, since there's less of an emphasis on developmental players. The NBL gets strong young talent because they intentionally push the developmental angle and make sure they play. If you get PT in the Spanish league it is because you are good. They are almost anti-star over there, you earn it or you earn a seat on the bench. The pay is good, better than everywhere else outside the NBA, See here so there are many former NBAers who want to continue their pro careers someplace where the competition is tough, but the lifestyle is better. I'd put the hierarchy as

NBA
Olympic play
FIBA international play
Euroleague competition
ACB
NCAA tournament play, Final Four level
Australian NBL/French Serie A equivalent to each other, and previously equivalent to the Russian leagues pre-Ukraine war. (Pre Brittney Griner).
Then various domestic leagues and international leagues & including the ABA are in the mix lower down.
The talent is even better in the G League than the ABA, though the competition is worse since there is no cohesive team play.

There is a reason Topic struggled when he tried the tougher league. Doubtless he would have adjusted, but scouts suggest out the gate he was initially overmatched.

[NatP4]

True. That should’ve said better competition for Rubio.

I don’t necessarily think the competition is all that great in the ACB outside of Barca/Madrid. Could argue that the French Pro A is the best non-NBA league in the world.

Factoring that +the fact that Topic played for KK Mega, a developmental club full of 18/19/20/21/22 year olds, it’s actually a pretty similar level of comp to Rubio IMO.

[Jay81]

Just can’t make my mind up about Sarr. On one hand, it’s wildly impressive that he posted 4.0 steals&blocks and solid 57% TS in the NBL, which is a really good league. Not even comparable to the level of competition in the NCAA. Other 1st round picks like Giddey, Ball, Hampton, and Ferguson were extremely inefficient in the NBL. He can clearly switch out and guard on the perimeter and moves like a wing. Can be a switch everything 5 in the NBA.

On the other hand, I’m not even sure that he’s a plus defender. The paint defense/rebounding is really bad. He has terrible hands, absolutely does not play with physicality. He can’t shoot. NBL teams left him wide open and his misses are brutal.

Reminds me so much of Jonathan Kuminga. Plays hard, has a great motor and poor feel. Can put up a ton of box score numbers thanks to the motor+physical gifts, but doesn’t bring much positive impact at all.

Yikes the bad outweighs the good in that post. And it’s hard to fix bad hands

[doclinkin]

True. That should’ve said better competition for Rubio.

I don’t necessarily think the competition is all that great in the ACB outside of Barca/Madrid. Could argue that the French Pro A is the best non-NBA league in the world.

Factoring that +the fact that Topic played for KK Mega, a developmental club full of 18/19/20/21/22 year olds, it’s actually a pretty similar level of comp to Rubio IMO.

Except it's not.

If we are talking age 18, in the ACB and Euroleague play Rubio was already a seasoned pro having played in the adult leagues since he was 14, and Euroleague at age 15. Rubio was Doncic before Doncic. Both played young, with massive hype.

By age 18 Rubio was averaging per 36 16pts/8a/3.5 steals in the ACB. ~7pts/~7a/5 steals in Euroleague.

For competition In 2008 he faced: Serge Ibaka, Brandon Jennings, JC Navarro, Enes Kanter, Tiago Splitter (Spurs, Hawks, 6ers), Corey Brewer (12 yrs in the NBA), Ersan Ilyasova (Bucks), Gordan Giricek (Jazz, Magic +3 more), Pooh Jeter (Kings), Jiri Welsch (Celts, Bucks W's, Cavs),Tyus Edney (Kings, Celts, Pacers), Loren Woods (Wolves, Heat, Raptors, Rockets), Nik Tskitishvili (Nugs, W's, Suns, Wolves). Hell, even Party John Ramos. Looking at game logs I quit counting after 20 players who had NBA careers.

In the ABA you have Frank the Tank Kaminsky. And I forget the other hasbeen.

Level of competition is a real question with Topic. I wish he had an extended trial in the Euroleague level. He got hurt, and went back to the minors. Where yeah it's clear his talent is wasted at that level. I'm eager to see him against the better athletes. But If he had Ricky Rubio level success, he'd be the clear #1 coming out this year. No doubts at all.

I'd agree with you the French league is coming up, especially nowadays. They too emphasize developing youth, and have a pipeline to Africa that is adding additional talent. I credit the association of guys like Tony Parker (owner of ASVEL) for elevating the professionalism of the league. But back when Ricky was playing, the ACB was a gauntlet. It's still tough, far outpaces leagues like the ABA. But the French league is probably a better place to get young talent since the ACB skews towards veterans.

[NatP4]

Most of that isn’t even true. Enes Kanter didn’t play in ACB, nor did Brandon Jennings. There you go again, saying untrue things to try and push your agenda. Completely unnecessary.

I’d say Topic, Djurisic, Vukcevic, and Teodosic alone is a more impressive list of players than the one you posted above (after you remove the players that didn’t actually play in ACB).

Rubio played 13 minutes a game for 5 total Euroleague games. He averaged more turnovers than points and shot 30% overall. Didn’t belong anywhere near Euroleague competition, obviously.

In ACB, he averaged 15.5 points 4.3 rebounds 9.2 assists 4.9 turnovers 3.6 steals 56% TS

[Hibachi_0]

It is kind of "abstract" debating if Topic belongs to the Euroleague, as he only played two games of this competition, and will not play anymore. The ABA league being at most a third tier league in Europe and ACB being top tier is not much debatable, tbh. Baskonia, a Euroleague playoffs team probably will not make the ACB playoffs (not saying ACB is better, just to show how competitive it is). You can check how many teams play Euroleague, BCL or Eurocup and how are they doing in it to see the difference in level.

Mega is a great development team and a league like ABA allows them to grow. Nothing wrong with that, but the competition is worse. Mega in ACB would be closer to being a relegation team than a playoffs team. The list of drafted players coming from Mega is impressive, though:

Milovan Rakovic – 60th pick in 2007 (Dallas)
Nikola Jokic – 41st pick in 2014 (Denver)
Vasilije Micic – 52nd pick in 2014 (Philadelphia)
Nemanja Dangubić – 54th pick in 2014 (Philadelphia)
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot – 24th pick 2016 (Philadelphia)
Ivica Zubac – 32nd pick in 2016 (Lakers)
Rade Zagorac – 35th pick in 2016 (Boston – traded to Memphis)
Vlatko Cancar – 49th pick in 2017 (Denver)
Ognjen Jaramaz – 58th pick of 2017 (Knicks)
Alfa Kaba – 60th pick in 2017 (Atlanta)
Goga Bitadze – 18th pick 2019 (Indiana)
Marko Simonovic – 44th pick in 2020 (Chicago)
Filip Petrusev – 50th pick in 2021 (Philadelphia)
Nikola Jovic 27th pick in 2022 (Miami)
Karlo Matkovic 52nd pick in 2022 (New Orleans)

[Benjammin]

For better or worse, workouts and measurements will play an even bigger role when you don't have large sample sizes or high-quality competition to evaluate players. You didn't need to measure or workout guys back in the day so much, or at least weight that lower, when you had three years of high-quality competition in college for example.

[payitforward]

Carping back & forth is unpleasant & unproductive... & who would know better than I, since I've been guilty of it many times.

One thing to say for sure: this is a fascinating draft! Have we ever been so unsure of who the #1 pick should be? Or will be?

[doclinkin]

Most of that isn’t even true. Enes Kanter didn’t play in ACB, nor did Brandon Jennings.

They played in the Euroleague.

Jennings for Lottomatica Roma. Jennings played better in their one head to head match-up.

Kanter played for Fenerbahce as a young player who didn't do much yet.

But glance through Hibachi's list of Mega players to see which of those guys has had a better NBA career than Serge Ibaka, Splitter (won a ring with the Spurs as a key reserve PF/C playing 21 mins a game), Ilyasova (11 years), Corey Brewer (12 year career), or a better international career than JC Navarro.

You know. Other than the one HOFer MVP mutant of course. But Topic never faced Jokic

You're pressing. You like the guy and hope he will be good. He has faced nobody of any caliber but has put up impressive numbers while doing so. The Spanish teams are solid. I'd love it if Topić had put up those numbers in ACB play. If so he'd be my top pick. He didn't, he was torching guys who will never make the NBA and are not as good as top level NCAA talent.

Carping back & forth is unpleasant & unproductive... & who would know better than I, since I've been guilty of it many times.

Okay I can be done. Its useful to me to put in context the level of competition that Topić has faced. I don't think his jumper translates against next level players. The rest of his game might. It's an interesting question if he can overcome the lack of a jumper or help a team as a high usage ballhandler type. If he doesn't have the ball, what skills does he add?

[closg00]

Will there be a run on grabbing centers in this draft as every team tries to have their own twin towers like Minny? Yes Minny crushed w/o Rudy
, still…

[NatP4]

Okay I can be done. Its useful to me to put in context the level of competition that Topić has faced.

Of course it is, but you can’t say things that aren’t true to try and “win” an argument, then go back and sneakily edit your post to re-frame the discussion.

It’s useful to compare the level of competition in the 2008-2009 ACB to the 2023-2024 ABA. No need to spin it in any way.

[doclinkin]

Okay I can be done. Its useful to me to put in context the level of competition that Topić has faced.

Of course it is, but you can’t say things that aren’t true to try and “win” an argument, then go back and sneakily edit your post to re-frame the discussion.

It’s useful to compare the level of competition in the 2008-2009 ACB to the 2023-2024 ABA. No need to spin it in any way.

Not what I did. You read too hastily and responded too quickly. Clearly missed what I said.

Look in this back and forth I've been bringing information and links, trying to add content and context to the discussion. You made an assertion that the ABA is equivalent to the ACB. It's flatly untrue. I actually watched the ACB closely during that era since we had drafted JC Navarro. Fell in love with the Euro play at the time since many teams were early adopters of the Princeton offense that Eddie Jordan (and Wes Jr, incidentally) wanted to implement in the Arenas era.

Now we have Jokic playing a high post point center. Then it was still rare in Europe, but missing from the NBA. Not until the small ball death line of the GSW championships did we see it as the keystone of a team. Draymond running things from above the FT line, skilled players at all positions, offense run from the top of the key, empty front court, players in motion everywhere. We'd seen it before in snatches: Spain won with that style in FIBA and Olympic play. Pops implemented some with the Duncan/Kawhi/Boris Diaw Spurs. And Pau Gasol naturally brought some of it with him. It is one of the reason why NBA scouts love players coming from the Serbian systems, they require players at all positions to be able to do everything, shoot, pass, rebound, etc. I'm not against the ABA as a feeder league for that young talent. I appreciate the skill level, even if I doubt the talent.

[DCZards]

:lol: Will there be a run on grabbing centers in this draft as every team tries to have their own twin towers like Minny? Yes Minny crushed w/o Rudy
, still…

…or a run on perimeter defenders like Alexander-Walker and McDaniels. Think Stephon Castle…who will likely be better than both of them.

[nate33]

Most of that isn’t even true. Enes Kanter didn’t play in ACB, nor did Brandon Jennings.

They played in the Euroleague.

Jennings for Lottomatica Roma. Jennings played better in their one head to head match-up.

Kanter played for Fenerbahce as a young player who didn't do much yet.

But glance through Hibachi's list of Mega players to see which of those guys has had a better NBA career than Serge Ibaka, Splitter (won a ring with the Spurs as a key reserve PF/C playing 21 mins a game), Ilyasova (11 years), Corey Brewer (12 year career), or a better international career than JC Navarro.

You know. Other than the one HOFer MVP mutant of course. But Topic never faced Jokic

You're pressing. You like the guy and hope he will be good. He has faced nobody of any caliber but has put up impressive numbers while doing so. The Spanish teams are solid. I'd love it if Topić had put up those numbers in ACB play. If so he'd be my top pick. He didn't, he was torching guys who will never make the NBA and are not as good as top level NCAA talent.

Carping back & forth is unpleasant & unproductive... & who would know better than I, since I've been guilty of it many times.

Okay I can be done. Its useful to me to put in context the level of competition that Topić has faced. I don't think his jumper translates against next level players. The rest of his game might. It's an interesting question if he can overcome the lack of a jumper or help a team as a high usage ballhandler type. If he doesn't have the ball, what skills does he add?

FWIW, I enjoy the debate. I don't really have a good grasp on which overseas league is stronger than which so I value the information.

It's why I don't really have a strong opinion on Topic or Risacher. I just don't have enough context.

[Dat2U]

:lol: Will there be a run on grabbing centers in this draft as every team tries to have their own twin towers like Minny? Yes Minny crushed w/o Rudy
, still…

…or a run on perimeter defenders like Alexander-Walker and McDaniels. Think Stephon Castle…who will likely be better than both of them.

But Alexander-Walker & McDaniels would simply be JAGs on any other team. Only reason where focusing on them is because what Minny is doing to Denver right now.

Castle, Bilal & Deni plus a C? That sounds like the cast from "The Bricklayer" movie.

[closg00]

Don't want Castle because of his non-shooting, he may turn out to be a fine player