Post#446 » by payitforward » Fri May 17, 2024 8:15 pm
Look, Consigliari, amico mio, if "experts" know in advance how "good" or "bad" drafts are, that must mean that they know how "good" or "bad" the guys in those drafts will be as NBA players. But, if they know how good/bad draft prospects will be in the league, please explain how they make so many mistakes in their picks. Every year.
For example: How did Paul George last until 10 in 2010? Were 9 better players taken before him? Was even one better player taken before him? In fact, how many players in that draft were better than Lance Stephenson? He was taken at 40. Were there 39 better players in that draft?
Why did Derrick Williams go at 2 the following year? For that matter, were Williams, Kanter, Tristan Thompson, Valanciunas, Vesely, Knight, Biyombo, Kemba, Fredette, Burks & both of the Morris twins, all of them, better than Kawhi Leonard? Was any of them? Even 1.
& were all 12 of those guys plus the next 14 guys picked -- Vucevic, Shumpert, Singleton, Harris, Motiejunas, Nolan Smith, Reggie Jackson, MarShon Brooks, Jordan Hamilton, JaJuan Johnson, Norris Cole & Cory Joseph & the other 2 I've missed -- all better than Jimmy Butler? How about the NEXT 29 guys taken? Were they better than Isaiah Thomas?
GMs are routinely unable to pick players in order of how good they'll be. They can't do it.
Here's an easy experiment to make this utterly clear:
Consigliari, please give me one list -- I ask for no more than one -- from any draft -- your choice which! -- of 5 guys taken in a row who wound up being "good" in the league in the same order that they were taken.
I.e. where the first one taken was better than the next guy taken in that draft, who was better than the guy taken right after him, who was better than the 4th guy on the list, who was better than the 5th. Just 1 list of 5 taken in a row anywhere in any draft of whom the above is true. That's all I ask.
But the fact is that you can't give such a list from any draft whatever. & neither can I. There isn't a single draft I can find where that's possible.
In fact, you can't give me a list of 4 in a row that meet the criterion.
Tell you what, let's make it "easy." Give me a list of 3 guys taken in a row, anywhere in any draft, where the 1st guy turned out to be a better player than the 2d, & the 2d turned out better than the 3d. They have to be taken right in a row.
You'd think it would be easy. But I doubt you can do it. Oh, & that's not because you in particular are unable -- I'm saying there is simply no such case! Period. It doesn't exist! I can't supply that list; you can't either. No one can!
Give it a try -- maybe you're smarter than me....
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