cb4_89 wrote:I get your points but they aren't really valid for my judgement of the GOAT. Yes Federer overall was better than a 19-20-21 year old Nadal. He would also be better today. My view is that prime Rafa is better than prime Roger. Roger is not a shell of his former self even now, let alone in 2007-2008.
Okay so this is more on point.
What's frustrating for me is that I'm explaining to you why your assumptions about Federer's career arc are unfounded, and then you just come back saying basically that you don't believe.
Consider this: What is it exactly you would expect to see if your assumptions about these players arcs was incorrect? I mean, Federer's record against non-Nadal/Djoker opponents has regressed more than Nadal's record against non-Fed/Djoker opponents has improved since 2005. Federer's also positively ancient by tennis standards which mean everyone should expect he isn't what he used to be.
The evidence for what I'm suggesting is very clear, what is your evidence in the other direction?
cb4_89 wrote:I think Roger was/is mentally weak more than he declined in 2007-2008. He knew he was unlikely to beat Rafa and that was it. It started affecting him in other matches too.
See, when you reason like you've done here, you can literally justify anything.
What's even worse about this is that Federer's clear fall off in early 2008 had nothing to do with Nadal. I mean, he lost to Djokovic at the Aussie, and had lost 4 matches before April, none of them to Nadal who he was clearly superior to in 2007. To me, given that Federer would eventually surpass Djokovic again quite cleanly for several years, and that Federer had mono at the time, the answer is pretty clearly a combination of his physical aging and being sick.
But whatever your explanation, I can't think of a bigger copout than that he all of a sudden got scared of Rafa given that all of this happened at a time when Federer had just slaughtered Nadal in the most recently played match.
cb4_89 wrote:Hell look at Novak this year, he has a worse record this year but you can't say he is declining. Sometimes things just don't go your way.
You're missing out on a clear middle ground which to me is the obvious explanation: Sometimes you're in a groove, and sometimes you slump a bit, maybe for mental reasons, maybe for physical reasons you don't tell the public.
Now, you're using this to say "You shouldn't assume that Federer was going downhill because he was progressing through a normal career arch", and I'm with you that there is always a bit more than that going on. However, you should also assume when we are talking about a 30-something 6 years removed from his best season that the dude is in his decline. To do otherwise is to build up a superhuman stature of Federer for an analysis that belittles his peak.
