Pelicans Potentially Looking to Trade Ingram and not Interested in Bringing JV Back

[agkagk]

Yeah Dallas you idiots, way to go getting a much cheaper centre option and being 2 games away from an WCF birth over the top team in the west. Morons, you could've had Jak and Brown, how do you even sleep at night.

Sent from my iPhone 25-57 with no lotto pick

Theyre not winning **** before kyie is washed.

the league is wide open right now.

And dallas is just another pretender with each foot in an opposite pool.

Also brown is too short to be effective next to a kyrie/luka backcourt…. But you get my point…. Pick a lane, play to win.


Too many gm’s are too focused on their 3 year cost projections.

If you trade for kyrie and you have luka — surround them with veteran role players and legitimately try to win 100% right now.


Its pathetic, they put a gafford bandaid on. Watch their window close the next 2 years.

Like you telling me for example:

kyrie luka josh green kelly o and jakub

isnt a legit title contender and would have cost them little more then lively, dwight Powell, other salary filler and maybe a late first.

They chose livelys development over being a legit contender.

Lmao you think Bruce Brown and Jak are what keeps them from being a legit contender? I cant even with some of the stuff I read on here

Learn to read.

And then read up on winning basketball and basic fundamentals.

Ya, yaks goods.

his game is 100% built for the playoffs.

And this has been toxic.


Byyyyye

[Ell Curry]

There's some Demar in there.

I could see him ending up in Philly because they have cap space, Maxey and Embiid (on a clock) and a flawed but talented wing would make sense. He's certainly better than Oubre, who did well for them.

A 1 year tryout in Philly would make a lot of sense. They're already so health-luck dependent anyway. If it fails, they can let him leave and try again lol

There’s no demar in there if you’re speaking of injuries. Demar keeps his body well.

Ingram in Philly makes a world of sense. He would be forced to be a tertiary scorer and is better than oubre and would replace Tobias Harris.

Yeah, more in terms of a guy who is a solid #2 in terms of winning 45+ games and even can be a #1 on a 40+ win playoff team, but you probably can't build a title winner around him, and he won't be a 6th man until near the end of his career. Ingram can shoot better, but DeMar as you say is more reliable in terms of health.

But yeah, to be part of a big 3 you'd figure it needs to be with a dominant 2-way big and a quality playmaking guard, and Ingram can attack closeouts, guard the 2nd best forward, so basically the Michael Porter Jr role of #3 scorer but the 4th best scorer (Gordon) is a better player overall and the 5th guy is a 3+D type.

So if Philly can get to like Maxey-Caruso-Ingram-FinneySmith-Embiid with their cap space and trading damn near all their picks.

[Merit]

A 1 year tryout in Philly would make a lot of sense. They're already so health-luck dependent anyway. If it fails, they can let him leave and try again lol

There’s no demar in there if you’re speaking of injuries. Demar keeps his body well.

Ingram in Philly makes a world of sense. He would be forced to be a tertiary scorer and is better than oubre and would replace Tobias Harris.

Yeah, more in terms of a guy who is a solid #2 in terms of winning 45+ games and even can be a #1 on a 40+ win playoff team, but you probably can't build a title winner around him, and he won't be a 6th man until near the end of his career. Ingram can shoot better, but DeMar as you say is more reliable in terms of health.

But yeah, to be part of a big 3 you'd figure it needs to be with a dominant 2-way big and a quality playmaking guard, and Ingram can attack closeouts, guard the 2nd best forward, so basically the Michael Porter Jr role of #3 scorer but the 4th best scorer (Gordon) is a better player overall and the 5th guy is a 3+D type.

So if Philly can get to like Maxey-Caruso-Ingram-FinneySmith-Embiid with their cap space and trading damn near all their picks.

How would they get Caruso and Finney smith?

Caruso is stupidly underrated. He’s like OG on defense but with a handle and can guard 1-4 instead of 1-5.

Agreed in principle though, 100%. I think it’s more likely they look at secondary free agents. Quite frankly, Deanthony Melton at the 2 is solid. Same with Covington and Batum as backups.

Maxey/Melton/Ingram/Reed/Embiid feels like the most likely scenario.

[will]

There’s no demar in there if you’re speaking of injuries. Demar keeps his body well.

Ingram in Philly makes a world of sense. He would be forced to be a tertiary scorer and is better than oubre and would replace Tobias Harris.

Yeah, more in terms of a guy who is a solid #2 in terms of winning 45+ games and even can be a #1 on a 40+ win playoff team, but you probably can't build a title winner around him, and he won't be a 6th man until near the end of his career. Ingram can shoot better, but DeMar as you say is more reliable in terms of health.

But yeah, to be part of a big 3 you'd figure it needs to be with a dominant 2-way big and a quality playmaking guard, and Ingram can attack closeouts, guard the 2nd best forward, so basically the Michael Porter Jr role of #3 scorer but the 4th best scorer (Gordon) is a better player overall and the 5th guy is a 3+D type.

So if Philly can get to like Maxey-Caruso-Ingram-FinneySmith-Embiid with their cap space and trading damn near all their picks.

How would they get Caruso and Finney smith?

Caruso is stupidly underrated. He’s like OG on defense but with a handle and can guard 1-4 instead of 1-5.

Agreed in principle though, 100%. I think it’s more likely they look at secondary free agents. Quite frankly, Deanthony Melton at the 2 is solid. Same with Covington and Batum as backups.

Maxey/Melton/Ingram/Reed/Embiid feels like the most likely scenario.

Ernie Johnson's son is an absolute monster. You are very accurate in describing Caruso as 'stupidly underrated'. Such a shame that Lonzo Ball is (nearly) done in the NBA.

A lineup including Caruso and Lonzo for the Bulls was quite effective.

[Merit]

Yeah, more in terms of a guy who is a solid #2 in terms of winning 45+ games and even can be a #1 on a 40+ win playoff team, but you probably can't build a title winner around him, and he won't be a 6th man until near the end of his career. Ingram can shoot better, but DeMar as you say is more reliable in terms of health.

But yeah, to be part of a big 3 you'd figure it needs to be with a dominant 2-way big and a quality playmaking guard, and Ingram can attack closeouts, guard the 2nd best forward, so basically the Michael Porter Jr role of #3 scorer but the 4th best scorer (Gordon) is a better player overall and the 5th guy is a 3+D type.

So if Philly can get to like Maxey-Caruso-Ingram-FinneySmith-Embiid with their cap space and trading damn near all their picks.

How would they get Caruso and Finney smith?

Caruso is stupidly underrated. He’s like OG on defense but with a handle and can guard 1-4 instead of 1-5.

Agreed in principle though, 100%. I think it’s more likely they look at secondary free agents. Quite frankly, Deanthony Melton at the 2 is solid. Same with Covington and Batum as backups.

Maxey/Melton/Ingram/Reed/Embiid feels like the most likely scenario.

Ernie Johnson's son is an absolute monster. You are very accurate in describing Caruso as 'stupidly underrated'. Such a shame that Lonzo Ball is (nearly) done in the NBA.

A lineup including Caruso and Lonzo for the Bulls was quite effective.

Yeah that’s the worst part for them. If the just had both those dudes they would be in contention. Their combined defensive acumen and size would account for the zeroes that Vuc and Demar put up defensively. Plus then they still would have their young bench eg. Coby White/Dosunmu/Williams. Sucks it didn’t work out but eversley’s plan at least made sense.

[ontnut]

There’s no demar in there if you’re speaking of injuries. Demar keeps his body well.

Ingram in Philly makes a world of sense. He would be forced to be a tertiary scorer and is better than oubre and would replace Tobias Harris.

Yeah, more in terms of a guy who is a solid #2 in terms of winning 45+ games and even can be a #1 on a 40+ win playoff team, but you probably can't build a title winner around him, and he won't be a 6th man until near the end of his career. Ingram can shoot better, but DeMar as you say is more reliable in terms of health.

But yeah, to be part of a big 3 you'd figure it needs to be with a dominant 2-way big and a quality playmaking guard, and Ingram can attack closeouts, guard the 2nd best forward, so basically the Michael Porter Jr role of #3 scorer but the 4th best scorer (Gordon) is a better player overall and the 5th guy is a 3+D type.

So if Philly can get to like Maxey-Caruso-Ingram-FinneySmith-Embiid with their cap space and trading damn near all their picks.

How would they get Caruso and Finney smith?

Caruso is stupidly underrated. He’s like OG on defense but with a handle and can guard 1-4 instead of 1-5.

Agreed in principle though, 100%. I think it’s more likely they look at secondary free agents. Quite frankly, Deanthony Melton at the 2 is solid. Same with Covington and Batum as backups.

Maxey/Melton/Ingram/Reed/Embiid feels like the most likely scenario.

Caruso is bordering now on being so "underrated" that he's becoming "overrated". I think he's a great fit on most teams, but I'm not convinced I'd rather have him than a bigger wing defender, of which there are a few I'd have above him.

[Merit]

Yeah, more in terms of a guy who is a solid #2 in terms of winning 45+ games and even can be a #1 on a 40+ win playoff team, but you probably can't build a title winner around him, and he won't be a 6th man until near the end of his career. Ingram can shoot better, but DeMar as you say is more reliable in terms of health.

But yeah, to be part of a big 3 you'd figure it needs to be with a dominant 2-way big and a quality playmaking guard, and Ingram can attack closeouts, guard the 2nd best forward, so basically the Michael Porter Jr role of #3 scorer but the 4th best scorer (Gordon) is a better player overall and the 5th guy is a 3+D type.

So if Philly can get to like Maxey-Caruso-Ingram-FinneySmith-Embiid with their cap space and trading damn near all their picks.

How would they get Caruso and Finney smith?

Caruso is stupidly underrated. He’s like OG on defense but with a handle and can guard 1-4 instead of 1-5.

Agreed in principle though, 100%. I think it’s more likely they look at secondary free agents. Quite frankly, Deanthony Melton at the 2 is solid. Same with Covington and Batum as backups.

Maxey/Melton/Ingram/Reed/Embiid feels like the most likely scenario.

Caruso is bordering now on being so "underrated" that he's becoming "overrated". I think he's a great fit on most teams, but I'm not convinced I'd rather have him than a bigger wing defender, of which there are a few I'd have above him.

I’m sure you’d rather have Herb. I would too, given his contract length. However, Caruso is in the same tier of underrated as Herb is imo and would be better suited to the Raps given we don’t have a backup PG right now. I would definitely take either on the raps in a heartbeat.

More people are finding out about Herb now as well. Deni Avdija also has a part in the discussion of being underrated, but not because of his defense and more because of his all around play and tertiary scoring.

[TheGeneral99]

I wouldn't mind signing JV as a backup big on a reasonable contract (2 years 25m?).

[OakleyDokely]

Ingram has functionally been the #1 option on a solid team for multiple years, and he's done it with average-ish efficiency, which is valuable, especially if you can knock him down to a #2 role.

19/20: 28.1 USG / .587 TS
20/21: 28.0 USG / .584 TS
21/22: 29.3 USG / .554 TS
22/23: 30.8 USG / .582 TS
23/24: 27.2 USG / .578 TS

The durability is a legit issue, but I think there will be a lot of interest in him.

[Psubs]

Yeah, more in terms of a guy who is a solid #2 in terms of winning 45+ games and even can be a #1 on a 40+ win playoff team, but you probably can't build a title winner around him, and he won't be a 6th man until near the end of his career. Ingram can shoot better, but DeMar as you say is more reliable in terms of health.

But yeah, to be part of a big 3 you'd figure it needs to be with a dominant 2-way big and a quality playmaking guard, and Ingram can attack closeouts, guard the 2nd best forward, so basically the Michael Porter Jr role of #3 scorer but the 4th best scorer (Gordon) is a better player overall and the 5th guy is a 3+D type.

So if Philly can get to like Maxey-Caruso-Ingram-FinneySmith-Embiid with their cap space and trading damn near all their picks.

How would they get Caruso and Finney smith?

Caruso is stupidly underrated. He’s like OG on defense but with a handle and can guard 1-4 instead of 1-5.

Agreed in principle though, 100%. I think it’s more likely they look at secondary free agents. Quite frankly, Deanthony Melton at the 2 is solid. Same with Covington and Batum as backups.

Maxey/Melton/Ingram/Reed/Embiid feels like the most likely scenario.

Caruso is bordering now on being so "underrated" that he's becoming "overrated". I think he's a great fit on most teams, but I'm not convinced I'd rather have him than a bigger wing defender, of which there are a few I'd have above him.

He shut down Pascal and why we all wanted him traded ASAP.

[MiamiSPX]

Yeah, more in terms of a guy who is a solid #2 in terms of winning 45+ games and even can be a #1 on a 40+ win playoff team, but you probably can't build a title winner around him, and he won't be a 6th man until near the end of his career. Ingram can shoot better, but DeMar as you say is more reliable in terms of health.

But yeah, to be part of a big 3 you'd figure it needs to be with a dominant 2-way big and a quality playmaking guard, and Ingram can attack closeouts, guard the 2nd best forward, so basically the Michael Porter Jr role of #3 scorer but the 4th best scorer (Gordon) is a better player overall and the 5th guy is a 3+D type.

So if Philly can get to like Maxey-Caruso-Ingram-FinneySmith-Embiid with their cap space and trading damn near all their picks.

How would they get Caruso and Finney smith?

Caruso is stupidly underrated. He’s like OG on defense but with a handle and can guard 1-4 instead of 1-5.

Agreed in principle though, 100%. I think it’s more likely they look at secondary free agents. Quite frankly, Deanthony Melton at the 2 is solid. Same with Covington and Batum as backups.

Maxey/Melton/Ingram/Reed/Embiid feels like the most likely scenario.

Caruso is bordering now on being so "underrated" that he's becoming "overrated". I think he's a great fit on most teams, but I'm not convinced I'd rather have him than a bigger wing defender, of which there are a few I'd have above him.

I think it's because contracts matter more than ever now and Caruso makes less than 10M per season. For context, OG will make more next season than Caruso, Naz Reid, and Herb Jones combined.

[ontnut]

How would they get Caruso and Finney smith?

Caruso is stupidly underrated. He’s like OG on defense but with a handle and can guard 1-4 instead of 1-5.

Agreed in principle though, 100%. I think it’s more likely they look at secondary free agents. Quite frankly, Deanthony Melton at the 2 is solid. Same with Covington and Batum as backups.

Maxey/Melton/Ingram/Reed/Embiid feels like the most likely scenario.

Caruso is bordering now on being so "underrated" that he's becoming "overrated". I think he's a great fit on most teams, but I'm not convinced I'd rather have him than a bigger wing defender, of which there are a few I'd have above him.

I think it's because contracts matter more than ever now and Caruso makes less than 10M per season. For context, OG will make more next season than Caruso, Naz Reid, and Herb Jones combined.

For sure, his contract is amazing value, no doubt about it. He's also lacking in the scoring department, so you run into some trouble there, unless he's on a team with an elite scorer where he can just spot up in the corner. He's probably a top 10 defender, but one of the worst offensive starting guards you could have. He probably would've made a lot more money if he was a couple inches taller....and unfortunately, a little....not as white.

[Ell Curry]

There’s no demar in there if you’re speaking of injuries. Demar keeps his body well.

Ingram in Philly makes a world of sense. He would be forced to be a tertiary scorer and is better than oubre and would replace Tobias Harris.

Yeah, more in terms of a guy who is a solid #2 in terms of winning 45+ games and even can be a #1 on a 40+ win playoff team, but you probably can't build a title winner around him, and he won't be a 6th man until near the end of his career. Ingram can shoot better, but DeMar as you say is more reliable in terms of health.

But yeah, to be part of a big 3 you'd figure it needs to be with a dominant 2-way big and a quality playmaking guard, and Ingram can attack closeouts, guard the 2nd best forward, so basically the Michael Porter Jr role of #3 scorer but the 4th best scorer (Gordon) is a better player overall and the 5th guy is a 3+D type.

So if Philly can get to like Maxey-Caruso-Ingram-FinneySmith-Embiid with their cap space and trading damn near all their picks.

How would they get Caruso and Finney smith?

Caruso is stupidly underrated. He’s like OG on defense but with a handle and can guard 1-4 instead of 1-5.

Agreed in principle though, 100%. I think it’s more likely they look at secondary free agents. Quite frankly, Deanthony Melton at the 2 is solid. Same with Covington and Batum as backups.

Maxey/Melton/Ingram/Reed/Embiid feels like the most likely scenario.

Picks. I enjoy Bball Paul but he's not gonna start at the 4 next to Embiid. I could see Reed + a top 5 protected pick (in a few years) for Caruso and the Bulls count on Embiid getting hurt/old by then. Bulls could use a big who still has some potential in Reed with their lack of youth there and the draft probably bringing them a wing (what big do you take at 11, and they still are short at the 3/4 long-term). Finney-Smith I think would be cheaper, maybe a deadline move.

[will]

The good news here is that Masai can't deal a FRP for YOnas. YOnas is a free agent

[JB7]

Caruso is bordering now on being so "underrated" that he's becoming "overrated". I think he's a great fit on most teams, but I'm not convinced I'd rather have him than a bigger wing defender, of which there are a few I'd have above him.

Ok, so Caruso is 30 going into next season, the last under his current contract paying him $10M.

What would you pay him at age 31, in free agency?

Is he at risk of going from massively underrated to overrated?

[ontnut]

Caruso is bordering now on being so "underrated" that he's becoming "overrated". I think he's a great fit on most teams, but I'm not convinced I'd rather have him than a bigger wing defender, of which there are a few I'd have above him.

Ok, so Caruso is 30 going into next season, the last under his current contract paying him $10M.

What would you pay him at age 31, in free agency?

Is he at risk of going from massively underrated to overrated?

Marcus Smart is a comparison, they're similar player archetypes and stats-wise. Smart won the DPOY then signed a 4 year $77m contract that started in 2022-23. AAV of $19.25m. He was 28 years old when the contract started.

Assuming the cap goes up about 6% per year (as it has avg'd over the last 4 years), in 2025, the Smart contract would be pro-rated to a 4 year $91.7m, $22.9m AAV contract. Caruso's last deal would be pro-rated to a 4 year $44mil, $11m AAV deal.

Adjustment factors:
Smart got a big salary bonus for coming off a DPOY win, I think that's worth a few million a year on its own. Caruso topped out at 10th in DPOY last season. Slight negative for Caruso.
Caruso will be 3 years older at 31yo. Moderate negative for Caurso.
Caruso is a slightly better 3pt shooter. Slight positive for Caruso.
Caruso was part of a championship team which gives him some prestige, but his contract with the Bulls already took that into account. No adjustment.
Caruso career avg GP is 52. Even ignoring his first 2 years pre-breakout, he only averaged 60GP. Marcus Smart with his injury woes averaged 65GP before signing his deal. Moderate, and concerning negative for Caruso.

Overall I think you'd have to at least moderately adjust down from the pro-rated Smart contract.

Another comparison would be Derrick White at $17.5m AAV, who finished 8th in DPOY and is a better offensive player than Caruso. White's deal was signed in 2021-22 when he was younger (27yo i think). Pro-rated it's about $22m/year AAV in 2025. White, ignoring his rookie season where he didn't play, averaged 57GP over 3 years despite being injured and only playing 36 games in 20-21.

So taking this all into consideration, given that he's likely viewed as an inferior player to both Smart and White at the time of their signings, plays fewer games per year, and will be 3-4 years older than them, I think I would balk at anymore than $18m/year AAV, and he'd probably have to take a 3 year deal instead of 4 years given his age. The MLE in his FA year will be about $13.4mil, so at $18m AAV, he'll be paid roughly the MLE + BAE combined. I could see him taking the MLE to go to a contender at his age.

If I were a GM, my highest offers would be ~ a 4 year $64m deal ($16m AAV) with a team option, or a 4 year $56m ($14m AAV) fully guaranteed, or a 3 year $54m ($18m AAV) deal. As a GM I'd probably rather pay him for 3 years than extend it to 4.

That puts him around the top 100 AAV contracts, in between the Pj Washington ($15.5m AAV), KCP ($15m AAV), Lu Dort ($16.5m AAV), Marcus Smart ($19.25m AAV), Norm Powell ($19.2m AAV) range. I suspect his agent will use these type of guys as comparables. A good deal would be getting him at the Herb Jones 4 year $54m ($13.5m AAV, 135th highest AAV) for 3 years (3 year $39.5m deal), ie the 3 year MLE. This would give him a $2-3m AAV boost over his last pro-rated contract, to account for emerging as a top 10 type defender (similar to a contract incentive). An overpay would be some desperate team giving him the Bruce Brown deal (2 year $45m with a T.O., $22m AAV, 68th highest AAV), or a 4 year deal north of $18m AAV, as he's not done enough in the last 3 years to say he's worth 60%+ more than his last $11m AAV deal long term.

Depending on the type of deal he gets, yes, he could go from underrated and undervalued by contract, to overrated.

Agree? Disagree?

[Scase]

How would they get Caruso and Finney smith?

Caruso is stupidly underrated. He’s like OG on defense but with a handle and can guard 1-4 instead of 1-5.

Agreed in principle though, 100%. I think it’s more likely they look at secondary free agents. Quite frankly, Deanthony Melton at the 2 is solid. Same with Covington and Batum as backups.

Maxey/Melton/Ingram/Reed/Embiid feels like the most likely scenario.

Ernie Johnson's son is an absolute monster. You are very accurate in describing Caruso as 'stupidly underrated'. Such a shame that Lonzo Ball is (nearly) done in the NBA.

A lineup including Caruso and Lonzo for the Bulls was quite effective.

Yeah that’s the worst part for them. If the just had both those dudes they would be in contention. Their combined defensive acumen and size would account for the zeroes that Vuc and Demar put up defensively. Plus then they still would have their young bench eg. Coby White/Dosunmu/Williams. Sucks it didn’t work out but eversley’s plan at least made sense.

There's been more than a few people who have looked into the training regimen that Lavar put his 3 kids through to get them drafted in the NBA, and they all point to exactly why their bodies are breaking down. My memory is fuzzy on it, but the amount of training and games they went through even before finishing HS, was the equivalent wear and tear, on a typical player being in the NBA for a couple years and playing 4 years of NCAA, it was pretty insane.

Basically it was not an if, but 100% a when, that their bodies would break down. Lonzo has missed 48% of all eligible games, Lamelo has missed 42% of all eligible games. These dudes are 26 and 22 respectively, it's wild.

[JB7]

Caruso is bordering now on being so "underrated" that he's becoming "overrated". I think he's a great fit on most teams, but I'm not convinced I'd rather have him than a bigger wing defender, of which there are a few I'd have above him.

Ok, so Caruso is 30 going into next season, the last under his current contract paying him $10M.

What would you pay him at age 31, in free agency?

Is he at risk of going from massively underrated to overrated?

Marcus Smart is a comparison, they're similar player archetypes and stats-wise. Smart won the DPOY then signed a 4 year $77m contract that started in 2022-23. AAV of $19.25m. He was 28 years old when the contract started.

Assuming the cap goes up about 6% per year (as it has avg'd over the last 4 years), in 2025, the Smart contract would be pro-rated to a 4 year $91.7m, $22.9m AAV contract. Caruso's last deal would be pro-rated to a 4 year $44mil, $11m AAV deal.

Adjustment factors:
Smart got a big salary bonus for coming off a DPOY win, I think that's worth a few million a year on its own. Caruso topped out at 10th in DPOY last season. Slight negative for Caruso.
Caruso will be 3 years older at 31yo. Moderate negative for Caurso.
Caruso is a slightly better 3pt shooter. Slight positive for Caruso.
Caruso was part of a championship team which gives him some prestige, but his contract with the Bulls already took that into account. No adjustment.
Caruso career avg GP is 52. Even ignoring his first 2 years pre-breakout, he only averaged 60GP. Marcus Smart with his injury woes averaged 65GP before signing his deal. Moderate, and concerning negative for Caruso.

Overall I think you'd have to at least moderately adjust down from the pro-rated Smart contract.

Another comparison would be Derrick White at $17.5m AAV, who finished 8th in DPOY and is a better offensive player than Caruso. White's deal was signed in 2021-22 when he was younger (27yo i think). Pro-rated it's about $22m/year AAV in 2025. White, ignoring his rookie season where he didn't play, averaged 57GP over 3 years despite being injured and only playing 36 games in 20-21.

So taking this all into consideration, given that he's likely viewed as an inferior player to both Smart and White at the time of their signings, plays fewer games per year, and will be 3-4 years older than them, I think I would balk at anymore than $18m/year AAV, and he'd probably have to take a 3 year deal instead of 4 years given his age. The MLE in his FA year will be about $13.4mil, so at $18m AAV, he'll be paid roughly the MLE + BAE combined. I could see him taking the MLE to go to a contender at his age.

If I were a GM, my highest offers would be ~ a 4 year $64m deal ($16m AAV) with a team option, or a 4 year $56m ($14m AAV) fully guaranteed, or a 3 year $54m ($18m AAV) deal. As a GM I'd probably rather pay him for 3 years than extend it to 4.

That puts him around the top 100 AAV contracts, in between the Pj Washington ($15.5m AAV), KCP ($15m AAV), Lu Dort ($16.5m AAV), Marcus Smart ($19.25m AAV), Norm Powell ($19.2m AAV) range. I suspect his agent will use these type of guys as comparables. A good deal would be getting him at the Herb Jones 4 year $54m ($13.5m AAV, 135th highest AAV) for 3 years (3 year $39.5m deal), ie the 3 year MLE. This would give him a $2-3m AAV boost over his last pro-rated contract, to account for emerging as a top 10 type defender (similar to a contract incentive). An overpay would be some desperate team giving him the Bruce Brown deal (2 year $45m with a T.O., $22m AAV, 68th highest AAV), or a 4 year deal north of $18m AAV, as he's not done enough in the last 3 years to say he's worth 60%+ more than his last $11m AAV deal long term.

Depending on the type of deal he gets, yes, he could go from underrated and undervalued by contract, to overrated.

Agree? Disagree?

I wasn't expecting that kind of analysis. Well done!

I would agree, something in the $15M per season range would seem reasonable, but with the cap going up, some team will throw an inflated deal at him because of his reputation on D, which they will regret as he ages.

[ontnut]

Ok, so Caruso is 30 going into next season, the last under his current contract paying him $10M.

What would you pay him at age 31, in free agency?

Is he at risk of going from massively underrated to overrated?

Marcus Smart is a comparison, they're similar player archetypes and stats-wise. Smart won the DPOY then signed a 4 year $77m contract that started in 2022-23. AAV of $19.25m. He was 28 years old when the contract started.

Assuming the cap goes up about 6% per year (as it has avg'd over the last 4 years), in 2025, the Smart contract would be pro-rated to a 4 year $91.7m, $22.9m AAV contract. Caruso's last deal would be pro-rated to a 4 year $44mil, $11m AAV deal.

Adjustment factors:
Smart got a big salary bonus for coming off a DPOY win, I think that's worth a few million a year on its own. Caruso topped out at 10th in DPOY last season. Slight negative for Caruso.
Caruso will be 3 years older at 31yo. Moderate negative for Caurso.
Caruso is a slightly better 3pt shooter. Slight positive for Caruso.
Caruso was part of a championship team which gives him some prestige, but his contract with the Bulls already took that into account. No adjustment.
Caruso career avg GP is 52. Even ignoring his first 2 years pre-breakout, he only averaged 60GP. Marcus Smart with his injury woes averaged 65GP before signing his deal. Moderate, and concerning negative for Caruso.

Overall I think you'd have to at least moderately adjust down from the pro-rated Smart contract.

Another comparison would be Derrick White at $17.5m AAV, who finished 8th in DPOY and is a better offensive player than Caruso. White's deal was signed in 2021-22 when he was younger (27yo i think). Pro-rated it's about $22m/year AAV in 2025. White, ignoring his rookie season where he didn't play, averaged 57GP over 3 years despite being injured and only playing 36 games in 20-21.

So taking this all into consideration, given that he's likely viewed as an inferior player to both Smart and White at the time of their signings, plays fewer games per year, and will be 3-4 years older than them, I think I would balk at anymore than $18m/year AAV, and he'd probably have to take a 3 year deal instead of 4 years given his age. The MLE in his FA year will be about $13.4mil, so at $18m AAV, he'll be paid roughly the MLE + BAE combined. I could see him taking the MLE to go to a contender at his age.

If I were a GM, my highest offers would be ~ a 4 year $64m deal ($16m AAV) with a team option, or a 4 year $56m ($14m AAV) fully guaranteed, or a 3 year $54m ($18m AAV) deal. As a GM I'd probably rather pay him for 3 years than extend it to 4.

That puts him around the top 100 AAV contracts, in between the Pj Washington ($15.5m AAV), KCP ($15m AAV), Lu Dort ($16.5m AAV), Marcus Smart ($19.25m AAV), Norm Powell ($19.2m AAV) range. I suspect his agent will use these type of guys as comparables. A good deal would be getting him at the Herb Jones 4 year $54m ($13.5m AAV, 135th highest AAV) for 3 years (3 year $39.5m deal), ie the 3 year MLE. This would give him a $2-3m AAV boost over his last pro-rated contract, to account for emerging as a top 10 type defender (similar to a contract incentive). An overpay would be some desperate team giving him the Bruce Brown deal (2 year $45m with a T.O., $22m AAV, 68th highest AAV), or a 4 year deal north of $18m AAV, as he's not done enough in the last 3 years to say he's worth 60%+ more than his last $11m AAV deal long term.

Depending on the type of deal he gets, yes, he could go from underrated and undervalued by contract, to overrated.

Agree? Disagree?

I wasn't expecting that kind of analysis. Well done!

I would agree, something in the $15M per season range would seem reasonable, but with the cap going up, some team will throw an inflated deal at him because of his reputation on D, which they will regret as he ages.

If I was his agent, I'd have teams like Detroit, Atlanta and Indiana on speed dial. Teams that need a defensive vet guard like him. I could also see the Spurs valuing a guy like him, in the Bowen mold.

[Merit]

Ernie Johnson's son is an absolute monster. You are very accurate in describing Caruso as 'stupidly underrated'. Such a shame that Lonzo Ball is (nearly) done in the NBA.

A lineup including Caruso and Lonzo for the Bulls was quite effective.

Yeah that’s the worst part for them. If the just had both those dudes they would be in contention. Their combined defensive acumen and size would account for the zeroes that Vuc and Demar put up defensively. Plus then they still would have their young bench eg. Coby White/Dosunmu/Williams. Sucks it didn’t work out but eversley’s plan at least made sense.

There's been more than a few people who have looked into the training regimen that Lavar put his 3 kids through to get them drafted in the NBA, and they all point to exactly why their bodies are breaking down. My memory is fuzzy on it, but the amount of training and games they went through even before finishing HS, was the equivalent wear and tear, on a typical player being in the NBA for a couple years and playing 4 years of NCAA, it was pretty insane.

Basically it was not an if, but 100% a when, that their bodies would break down. Lonzo has missed 48% of all eligible games, Lamelo has missed 42% of all eligible games. These dudes are 26 and 22 respectively, it's wild.

I didn’t know that! Thanks for sharing. Yeah it does take a lot to get into the league for sure. Tough when you’re giving it your all but your body doesn’t cooperate. I’m hopeful Lonzo can return as an elite role player a la Shawn Livingston.