Post#312 » by Walton1one » Mon May 6, 2024 8:41 pm
Assuming no moves, which may be foolhardy, a lot of teams seem ready to make changes and with a relatively flat draft I could see picks being swapped around much more frequently than normal.
Let's say POR lands 2-5, I think I would lean towards one of Risacher\Castle\Holland\Buzelis, though I have no idea who might be better\more what POR is looking for, that is why Cronin\Scmitz have the jobs.
IMO, Risacher has the prototypical size\position and he is playing against the best competition by far at age 19, very good shooting % on lower? usage but in meaningful games. What is his floor? Not sure he has the star potential of some of the other players, but maybe a more sure floor? One comp was Michael Porter JR, which would be a good IMO.
Castle, to me is all about betting on the upside, he is a combo guard, which means likely\need to commit to dealing away Simons. I think you have to believe that either he or Scoot (or both!) can develop into a reliable outside shooter b\c having 2 of the Scoot\Sharpe\Castle trio not having a reliable outside shot is not a recipe for success. He may have the biggest upside in the draft though, defensively, scoring and if the shooting improves, he could be a potential star-level player.
Holland\Buzelis are close IMO, both played G-league, better competition than college IMO. Like Castle, do you view either of them developing into a reliable shooter? I tend to like Holland's upside more than Buzelis, but his (Holland's) size concerns me. If he is more like Castle height-wise, I would rather see POR take Castle.
Holland was only 18 in G-League, yet he showed scoring prowess (avg 19pts) but 3pt shooting was abysmal (24%), hustles, plays defense, rebounds. Only played about 1/2 season (14 games). He had been viewed as the #1 player in his class for a while. Curious on his measurements, b\c some have said he is closer to 6'5 than 6'8. His FT% was 75.7% so maybe there is some hope about the 3pt shot? He is like Castle to me, do you buy the potential high\star level upside, if so, he could be a top 3\best player in the draft.
Buzelis was 19 in G-League. His performance in G-league was not overly impressive? 27% 3pt, 67.9 FT%. He has good size, definitely prototypical SF\PF? size, bigger than Holland, but skinny, needs to fill out. He is going to get pushed around more (what rookie doesn't?). Apparently he shot very well coming out of HS, so is this just an adjustment thing or an issue? I watched him in the futures game and he looked like he belonged, playing against NBA rookies\2nd year players. I am not sure if he is a star-level type player but moreso a valuable starting piece.
Outside of those players, I am not sure who else makes sense?
Clingan? Maybe? I don't see Ayton going anywhere soon in the near future (next 2yrs) and he is only 25. I think Clingan will probably be a good rotation player but I would rather see POR use that pick on a higher upside\better fitting (wing) player. I don't think it makes a lot of sense drafting Clingan as a b\u for 2 years\eventual starter when you have other players who may have higher upsides.
Cody Williams is an enigma to me, but I would not be totally surprised if POR sitting in the #5-7 range took him? I think he is several years (3?) away from being ready though, looks raw physically (more than Buzelis). He shot well, has good measureables, super skinny\light. He seemed to float\dissapear in the games I watched and then occassionally flash some nice moves, but he was coming back from injury. I am just not sure where his potential ceiling is compared to the other players listed and a team drafting him may not either.
I go back & forth about different players but I think Castle\Holland are the most intriguing in this draft, just on the potential upside. I am not sure Risacher\Buzelis\Williams have the same potential, but I would be a little concerned if Risacher was sitting there and POR passed on him. A lot will have to do with where POR is at. If they are at #2\3, both Castle & Risacher will be there, at #5\6\7, maybe Buzelis\Holland would be there, Williams should be, that is where it becomes tough IMO. Not sure what the choice is there, if Holland has the size, maybe him or Buzelis\Williams whomever they like better, both are unknowns IMO, although Buzelis played against vastly better competition.
I know people say this draft is weak, but given where POR is, the picks they have, this should be a fun draft to watch. Just hope Cronin\Scmitz hit on the right players. If the last 2 years are a barometer, they have drafted rather well.
