Official Magic @ Raptors Game 3

[Optimus_Steel]

if the Magic shoot the lights out in game 3, what will be the reasoning come game 4? and what will the expectations and probabilities be for that game as well?

when will these flukes end!

The Magic cant possibly be better than the Raptors, they just cant be.......

[Bucs80]

We lose this game

I don't think we beat a Raptor team down 2-0 at their house with their backs against the wall. That's like the ultimate in any playoff series.

We come back in game 4 and 5, and win the series.

[theTHIEF]

yea they are going to be hard to play tomorrow...the magic just have to come out and be ready for bear...

however, IF the Magic win tomorrow, this series is OVER...beating a team 3 times in a row and once on their home court is the ultimate deflation, they may win the 4th game, but it will be over in Orlando...

[Last Guardian]

Your shooting was just a swing from Game 1. Game 3 will probably have Nelson shooting a more mortal percentage while Hedo and Shard have better shooting nights. Shard pretty much torched the Raptors anytime he was around or beneath the foul line, it was just the outside shot with which he struggled. Hedo got by us pretty successfully, especially early when we decided that we needed more of Bargs on Hedo, which is why he had like 8 first-quarter points on layups, dunks and free throws.

Of most concern to Orlando should be how Bosh and Calderon perform; that's why this game was close. Not Kapono and not Delfino, but Bosh and Calderon.

Ford will likely suck again, but if he doesn't, that'll be problematic for you. Realistically though, if Bosh gets going, that REALLY helps the team. Shard needs to get back in his space, get up close on him, stay on his feet and let Howard come over and block the crap out of him if he gets past the first line. Otherwise, it'll be a nail-biter.

Presumably, because it's in our hometown and we're down 2-0, the Raptors will try not to collapse defensively in the first quarter for the third consecutive game. If we do, the game's done and it's 3-0.

The Raptors have now had one 30-point quarter in 8; we're averaging about 24 points a quarter. Orlando's averaging a bit over 27 points per quarter and has knocked out two quarters of 35 or better (43 and 35. You're winning by an average margin of 7.5 points overall, 3 points per quarter...

But it's worth noting that while Orlando has gone +20 and +17 in the first quarter of Games One and Two, Toronto has gone on to win the last three quarters by +6 and +16.

Given that Toronto's averaging +11 in the 2nd to 4th quarters, a first quarter assault from the Magic would seem critical to their success, since the Raptors seem to settle into their offense and the Magic seem to swing the pendulum away from incredible efficacy and execution after the first. If Orlando wins the first quarter by more than 10 points again, this is a 3-0 series, I think.

Blah, blah, blah. Magic are better on the road than the Raps are at home. This series is over in Toronto. I'm calling it now.

[ivDT]

if the Magic shoot the lights out in game 3, what will be the reasoning come game 4? and what will the expectations and probabilities be for that game as well?

when will these flukes end!

i'm guessing never.

just yesterday i read a post from a raptor fan saying that we shouldn't be excited about beating them since they're a walking wreck right now.

so, with their chances of advancing very much in doubt, we have raptors fans already attempting to downplay our success against their team.

preemptively even. i've never seen anything so weak.

i mean, a walking wreck?

all of the talk coming from raptors fans before this series was about how great the raptors chances were of upsetting us.

they just seem hellbent on not giving us our due, that's all.

they were intent on doing it coming in and they seem prepared to do it on their way out if they end up losing this series; even if it means backpedaling on how good their team was supposed to be before this series started.

[dieselpower]

This game will decide whether we go up 3-0 or slide back to 2-1.

Genious

[mattyBoi]

[quote="ivDT"][/quote]

+1

[tsherkin]

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Blah, blah, blah. Magic are better on the road than the Raps are at home. This series is over in Toronto. I'm calling it now.

Yeah, a sweep is possible, though I suspect it more likely that the Raps take Game 4 and send it back to Orlando. We did beat the Magic once on our own homecourt in the regular season and Bosh did find a way to start hitting his FGs in Game 2. It'll be interesting.

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I'm not trying to be a jerk but the only stat that really matters is 2-0 and 0-2. I guess I am trying to be a jerk.

You'll notice I didn't have a good reason why the Magic WOULDN'T toast us in the first Q, right? I'm just looking at what's there and analyzing the game, the trends, etc.

Anyway, we'll see. The first quarter is critical for Orlando. If they can beat us by a significant margin in the 1Q, then the game is over, because the Raptors have not been able to overcome those large deficits. they've come close, but we rely too heavily on long jumpers as opposed to buckets in the paint to be consistent enough to fend off the Magic's interior-based attack.

If the Raps hold that margin down, though, then it's a different story. It'll be an interesting game for that reason.

[tsherkin]

yea they are going to be hard to play tomorrow...the magic just have to come out and be ready for bear...

however, IF the Magic win tomorrow, this series is OVER...beating a team 3 times in a row and once on their home court is the ultimate deflation, they may win the 4th game, but it will be over in Orlando...

Well, if they win tomorrow, it's a 3-0 series. That's pretty well insurmountable.

[ORL]

if the Magic shoot the lights out in game 3, what will be the reasoning come game 4? and what will the expectations and probabilities be for that game as well?

when will these flukes end!

i'm guessing never.

just yesterday i read a post from a raptor fan saying that we shouldn't be excited about beating them since they're a walking wreck right now.

so, with their chances of advancing very much in doubt, we have raptors fans already attempting to downplay our success against their team.

preemptively even. i've never seen anything so weak.

i mean, a walking wreck?

all of the talk coming from raptors fans before this series was about how great the raptors chances were of upsetting us.

they just seem hellbent on not giving us our due, that's all.

they were intent on doing it coming in and they seem prepared to do it on their way out if they end up losing this series; even if it means backpedaling on how good their team was supposed to be before this series started.

They got that already in the bag... Didn't you know that if Ford, Bosh, and Garbajose hadn't missed all those games, it would be they that would be the 3rd seed and we wouldn't be having this discussion because it would've been them that won first 2 games at home?

[ORL]

PTI guys to debate Paul vs Howard on SportsCenter now...

[tsherkin]

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They got that already in the bag... Didn't you know that if Ford, Bosh, and Garbajose hadn't missed all those games, it would be they that would be the 3rd seed and we wouldn't be having this discussion because it would've been them that won first 2 games at home?

To be fair, if our team had been healthy, we would be in an entirely different scenario. Garbajosa's defense did actually make a dramatic difference, as did the way he played the pick-and-roll. And missing our leading scorer and our other isolation penetrator definitely affected us rather markedly. denying the truth that those absences significantly impacted the Raptors' chances at a greater degree of success would be simply foolish. Whether we'd have won 52 games or not, that's a different story, I suspect 47-50 (we won 47 last year) would be more reasonable... and then we wouldn't be facing the Magic in the first round at all, but rather the Cavs or the Wizards.

Would we have won the first two games? Or one of the first two games? It'd be more likely, but then, if Mitchell started Bargnani ahead of Garbo, then who knows? Would he have run us as a zone team? I mean, a lot of what the Magic were doing against Toronto was stuffed that was built on our response to Howard's presence down low and exploiting Shard against Bosh and Hedo against Bargs, nevermind Nelson. So I don't know if things would have honestly played out all that differently.

Orlando is a good team; they're not winning because of flukes, they're winning because they're crushing Toronto in the first quarter and then consistently getting under the foul line for shots around and at the rim, which means their offense is more consistent, more reliable. That means they're less likely to have random breakdowns the way Toronto did in the first quarter of Game 2 (and the third quarter, really, since we only made two shots inside 16 feet).

Anyway, Orlando isn't fluking the wins, but there is certainly truth to the fact that they have enjoyed more health than Toronto and that such health has been a meaningful factor in determining the success of both teams, at least in the regular season.

[ORL]

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To be fair, if our team had been healthy, we would be in an entirely different scenario. Garbajosa's defense did actually make a dramatic difference, as did the way he played the pick-and-roll. And missing our leading scorer and our other isolation penetrator definitely affected us rather markedly. denying the truth that those absences significantly impacted the Raptors' chances at a greater degree of success would be simply foolish. Whether we'd have won 52 games or not, that's a different story, I suspect 47-50 (we won 47 last year) would be more reasonable... and then we wouldn't be facing the Magic in the first round at all, but rather the Cavs or the Wizards.

Right, I understand... LOL

[TheGlyde]

thserk... I thought you guys wanted to play us so badly? I thought the only reason you guys were the 6 seed was cause you tanked your way into it because we were the matchup you wanted

[ivDT]

tsherkin writes the most eloquent excuses i've ever seen on these boards.

+1, big fella.

[tsherkin]

thserk... I thought you guys wanted to play us so badly? I thought the only reason you guys were the 6 seed was cause you tanked your way into it because we were the matchup you wanted

Heh. We did, there's no denying that. We feared Lebron and his new teammates more than we feared you, largely on the basis of Cleveland's ability to beat Detroit and given our reasonable amount of regular season competitiveness against the Magic.

It was really more of a "pick your poison" scenario as far as preferences go, though. We thought we matched up with the Magic better in principle.

tsherkin writes the most eloquent excuses i've ever seen on these boards.

+1, big fella.

Heh.

Well, "excuse" implies that I'm surprised we're getting fed Spalding; I was predicting a one-and-done all year regardless of matchup, I was just hoping that it wouldn't be a sweep, and I still hope we still a game or two.

The Raptors aren't winning because we can't stop the Magic in the first quarter offensively, are otherwise incapable of competing on the glass and because we rely on long jumpers to make up the large part of our offense. We're not constructed to win anywhere out of the regular season and not even to do so very well there. Garbo would have helped but we're a donut team and that's a problem.

[TheGlyde]

The simple fact is, the Raps come out strong every 2nd qtr. We have seen in this series they are +7 and +15 in the 2nd qtr, an average of +11.

If we can some how petition the NBA to just skip the 2nd qtr, the Magic were +21 and +16 in the other 3 qtrs combined, thats a +18.5 average.

So you can clearly see, if it wasn't for the 2nd qtr, we would have won both games... oh wait... we did... never mind.

[tsherkin]

The simple fact is, the Raps come out strong every 2nd qtr. We have seen in this series they are +7 and +15 in the 2nd qtr, an average of +11.

If we can some how petition the NBA to just skip the 2nd qtr, the Magic were +21 and +16 in the other 3 qtrs combined, thats a +18.5 average.

So you can clearly see, if it wasn't for the 2nd qtr, we would have won both games... oh wait... we did... never mind.

This is ridiculous hyperbole, though. There's a big difference between the Magic making a strong push in the first that carries them despite three quarters of reasonably average play and the Raptors having habitually stronger 2nd than 1st quarters.

It's pretty clear that Orlando is mainly getting things done in the first, establishing a comfortable lead and then just resisting the Toronto push the rest of the way.

Obviously, it's not a simple matter for Toronto to account for that because the team has actually attacked in different ways in each of the two first quarters thus far; first it was a three-point barrage and last game it was a brutal assault on the rim. If Orlando manages it again, then this is a 3-0 series.

Obviously, it's not impossible for them to win without having done so (and in fact, they did it in March when they mostly won on the basis of a +12 fourth quarter) but it's the way things are working right now. Toronto's strategy has to be to attempt to contain the Magic in the first because otherwise, they're competing very well.

[karizma87]

we get beat in the 2nd quarter because we have to rest howard, and hedo and raps gain momentum since we don't have their replacements on the bench, by the time we get our starting 5 reestablished after their rest, raps have already put up more points and have momentum.

[AB_21]

Toronto fan here.

Two completely different perspectives reading this here. A lot of you are saying we are a mess and scrambling but in Toronto it's very positive. A lot of people know that the ACC gets rocking come playoff time and we think we can win two games.

I think you guys do I have a very good team. But I think you are underestimating the power of the Raptors with a wild fan base. Also, in regards to Mitchell making changes, he's said he'll be starting the guys who played with energy and beat you the other 3 quarters.

I also don't think we are horrible and don't think we'll start out the same way we have especially at home. I really think the Raptors have turned the corner faster than they did last season (game 5 or 6) and I think they understand what it takes to win. Last year, we went down 3-1 and crawled back in and were a play away from taking it to 7. Don't count out the Raptors yet--there's a lot of positive energy going around.

Congrats on the first two wins. 100% deserved.