Official Summer 2024 Magic Free Agency and Trade Ideas Thread 4.0

[tiderulz]

I don't agree that he needs to get $25m+...who is bidding against us? I'm not saying insult him back into SAC's arms, but other cap space teams are a lot less of a fit, imo.

The Kings can offer him $17M per year over 4 years. He's beloved in Sacramento and his best friend plays there.

For him to walk away from that, a team IMO will have to make it worth his while financially.

I don't know if $20M AAV would get it done - although obviously I'd love it if it did. That's ultimately only $12M more over the life of the contract.

But 25M AAV is 28M more over the life of the contract, and that kind of money gap is unlikely to ever make up the difference by staying.

I do think San Antonio could potentially be interested in Monk and they have a ton of cap space as well.

with the tax situation for Florida and taxes in California, i think it would be more than $12M over the life. maybe more like $18-20M.

[tiderulz]

WCJ will be traded for Luke Kennard this summer and we will sign Hartenstien to replace him. You heard it here first

we heard it only here, because it isnt happening. NYC very happy with Hartenstein, and unless they add a pick to Kennard, he isnt worth WCJ. Kennard is just a bench SG.

[Skybox]

I don't agree that he needs to get $25m+...who is bidding against us? I'm not saying insult him back into SAC's arms, but other cap space teams are a lot less of a fit, imo.

The Kings can offer him $17M per year over 4 years. He's beloved in Sacramento and his best friend plays there.

For him to walk away from that, a team IMO will have to make it worth his while financially.

I don't know if $20M AAV would get it done - although obviously I'd love it if it did. That's ultimately only $12M more over the life of the contract.

But 25M AAV is 28M more over the life of the contract, and that kind of money gap is unlikely to ever make up the difference by staying.

I do think San Antonio could potentially be interested in Monk and they have a ton of cap space as well.

with the tax situation for Florida and taxes in California, i think it would be more than $12M over the life. maybe more like $18-20M.

I don’t think $12m is anything to sneeze at for Monk but it could be more…he’s also said polite, but clear things about wanting to start. The role and the fit here are appealing too. I do think it starts with the money, but…suddenly, ORL might be a destination for a guy who feels he’s on the verge.

[tiderulz]

I just can't get behind this Monk idea. The magic will not have this kind of cap space for a while and they may throw money and get stuck to a guy, who's best years came as 6th man, hoping he will reach another level after 8 years in the league. This is a massive risk for a team that has such a bright future.

That s what people don't get, with new tv deal cap goes up nearly 10% per year, locking a guy at 22M per year now is a bargain, that ll be 1/8 of your cap at most

And that contract would be a huge asset if needed in future deals

You are ignoring the fact that if Monk is signed the hope is that he breaks out as a starter. I can't remember that happening to a guy who has already been in the league for 7 years. With the success the Magic have had, I am not comfortable putting future progression on Monk hoping he reaches another level after 7 years. That is just risky and has been tried multiple times already. The Magic have a bright future they don't have to take on projects anymore.

JJ Redick was one. Like Redick, i think Monk was in the doghouse in Charlotte which played a large part of his development or lack thereof. Im hesitant to believe that Malik makes this jump or that he can play more of a PG role. But besides Dejounte, there really isnt a perfect fit out there.

[tiderulz]

Monk is not the piece we need. No trust in Suggs? Monk's offense what we need Suggs to become. If we got him, he would eat at Suggs minutes more than anyone elses. Not even I want that.

i dont see how. they would both start.

[Knightro]

WCJ will be traded for Luke Kennard this summer and we will sign Hartenstien to replace him. You heard it here first

we heard it only here, because it isnt happening. NYC very happy with Hartenstein, and unless they add a pick to Kennard, he isnt worth WCJ. Kennard is just a bench SG.

I’m not saying the Magic are definitely going to sign him, but Hartenstein is in the same boat as Monk in the respect that the Knicks only have his early bird rights and are capped on what they can offer him.

If someone comes in with a much bigger offer…

[Knightro]

Monk is not the piece we need. No trust in Suggs? Monk's offense what we need Suggs to become. If we got him, he would eat at Suggs minutes more than anyone elses. Not even I want that.

i dont see how. they would both start.

I agree.

The starting backcourt would be Monk and Suggs with each playing 30 MPG at least.

Cole, Black and Jett would all be in the mix for the remaining 36 backup guard minutes.

[basketballRob]

WCJ will be traded for Luke Kennard this summer and we will sign Hartenstien to replace him. You heard it here first

we heard it only here, because it isnt happening. NYC very happy with Hartenstein, and unless they add a pick to Kennard, he isnt worth WCJ. Kennard is just a bench SG.

I’m not saying the Magic are definitely going to sign him, but Hartenstein is in the same boat as Monk in the respect that the Knicks only have his early bird rights and are capped on what they can offer him.

If someone comes in with a much bigger offer…

I think OKC is the favorite to sign him.

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[tiderulz]

WCJ will be traded for Luke Kennard this summer and we will sign Hartenstien to replace him. You heard it here first

we heard it only here, because it isnt happening. NYC very happy with Hartenstein, and unless they add a pick to Kennard, he isnt worth WCJ. Kennard is just a bench SG.

I’m not saying the Magic are definitely going to sign him, but Hartenstein is in the same boat as Monk in the respect that the Knicks only have his early bird rights and are capped on what they can offer him.

If someone comes in with a much bigger offer…

dude was 9 ppg 9 rpb as a starter, how big an offer do you think he gets?

[basketballRob]

we heard it only here, because it isnt happening. NYC very happy with Hartenstein, and unless they add a pick to Kennard, he isnt worth WCJ. Kennard is just a bench SG.

I’m not saying the Magic are definitely going to sign him, but Hartenstein is in the same boat as Monk in the respect that the Knicks only have his early bird rights and are capped on what they can offer him.

If someone comes in with a much bigger offer…

dude was 9 ppg 9 rpb as a starter, how big an offer do you think he gets?

Isaac and Hartenstein were 1 and 2 in Defensive EPM. So that's the type of impact he's had.

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[drsd]

Lot's of conversations on the cap made me do some light maths and make a graph.

I am always recalling that it is reported that Orlando had the lowest payroll in the NBA, and that for next year and beyond, has enormous cap-flexibility, dependence on off-season moves.

So ....

Question 1: Given that the vast majority of teams are spending between 150-160M in payroll, and it is outlier teams like Orlando and Golden St. to be far outside that, how much money did teams pay in payroll per win?

Answer:
Washington 10057087.53
Detroit 9883543.286
Portland 7869713.952
Toronto 6579444.48
Charlotte 6547212.238
San Antonio 6457248.773
Memphis 6024056.444
Brooklyn 4861716.188
Golden State 4551189.935
Atlanta 4420927.583
Utah 4307691.871
Chicago 4246934.256
LA Clippers 3964804.196
Phoenix 3955895.551
Miami 3850946.565
Milwaukee 3823401.51
Houston 3669676.341
LA Lakers 3615636.596
Philadelphia 3543144.723
Cleveland 3476547.646
New Orleans 3385794.367
Sacramento 3366609.152
Dallas 3335117.68
New York 3325471.16
Denver 3191631.439
Indiana 3158985.745
Minnesota 2970255.839
Boston 2901285.641
Orlando 2822204.213
Oklahoma City 2819225.877

So, Washing paid 10M in payroll per win, whereas OKC paid 2.8M in payroll per win. Wow that is a huge window. (That the majority of the Magic wins came at home; Orlando management got Great value on home wins per salary!)

Some quick conclusions. 1) The terrible teams really wasted a lot of money this year. 2) OKC and Orlando were great investments for management gifting owners lots and lots of wins without spending much money. Boston, even at a high payroll, got real value out of their expenditures.


Question 2: Does salary lines correlate with win totals?
Actually more than I had expected. Every team over 170M in salary was at least mediocre. And many of the horrible teams had low payroll. But the r2 is still quite low. Mostly because of the clustering of salary lines in the 150-160 range.

[drsd]

Kennard is just a bench SG.

Would you trade Howard straight up for Kennard? It is not an auto-no for me. Certainly Houstan and the Denver FRP would be a yes.

[tiderulz]

Kennard is just a bench SG.

Would you trade Howard straight up for Kennard? It is not an auto-no for me. Certainly Houstan and the Denver FRP would be a yes.

honestly, i probably wouldnt, if Howard's shot looked good in Lakeland. Kennard has battled knee injuries, isnt a good defender, makes $14mil next year then will need another contract. Howard at $5mil the next few years, cant be too worse on defense. So it depends on his 3 pt shot. Yes, that Denver pick is some super asset, but i would use it with a different trade for a PG upgrade. Kennard to me is slightly better than "just another guy" on the bench with his 3 pt %, but not much more than that.

[Skybox]

we heard it only here, because it isnt happening. NYC very happy with Hartenstein, and unless they add a pick to Kennard, he isnt worth WCJ. Kennard is just a bench SG.

I’m not saying the Magic are definitely going to sign him, but Hartenstein is in the same boat as Monk in the respect that the Knicks only have his early bird rights and are capped on what they can offer him.

If someone comes in with a much bigger offer…

I think OKC is the favorite to sign him.

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Based on nothing...What is Hartenstein's role on the German national team? The chemistry he might share with the Wagners could play in. Certainly, they would have intimate knowledge of how he'd fit on the court and locker room...That's really good intel to make that decision. Listening to how the bros grew up in that program learning to "play the right way" matters.

Hart's numbers are somewhat pedestrian but I read recently that he's known for tooth-rattling picks and fighting for boards on both ends...I didn't realize his defensive rating was so elite...consider me intrigued.

[JBSouthpaw]

know who I've liked, that I'd probably give our 1st this year for?
AYO DOSUNMU.
Good defensive player
Can handle the ball well, would be nice next to Suggs
Shot 50% from the floor, 40% from 3. look at his post all-star stats this year.
Kind of been stuck behind LaVine, White, DeRozen, Caruso and Ball.
CHI could use the draft capital.

[drsd]

I've always assumed that given how brutal collective bargaining is on "future employees", i.e. players to be that will ink rookie deals, that the greatest indicator of team salary would be age. As I had the salary lines up, the answer is a Huge yes. Older teams payrolls skyrocket, and that correlate nearly not at all with winning games (older teams are not "better", on average).

The graph is not 100% as the average team age was at the season's start, nit conclusion (and thus does not account for in-season trades).

It's San Antonio and OKC at the far left and Milwaukee and LAC at the far right.

[tiderulz]

know who I've liked, that I'd probably give our 1st this year for?
AYO DOSUNMU.
Good defensive player
Can handle the ball well, would be nice next to Suggs
Shot 50% from the floor, 40% from 3. look at his post all-star stats this year.
Kind of been stuck behind LaVine, White, DeRozen, Caruso and Ball.
CHI could use the draft capital.

i called for him in the draft. We could have drafted him....if we used our 2nd round picks.

[thelead]

I’m not saying the Magic are definitely going to sign him, but Hartenstein is in the same boat as Monk in the respect that the Knicks only have his early bird rights and are capped on what they can offer him.

If someone comes in with a much bigger offer…

I think OKC is the favorite to sign him.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM Forums mobile app

Based on nothing...What is Hartenstein's role on the German national team? The chemistry he might share with the Wagners could play in. Certainly, they would have intimate knowledge of how he'd fit on the court and locker room...That's really good intel to make that decision. Listening to how the bros grew up in that program learning to "play the right way" matters.

Hart's numbers are somewhat pedestrian but I read recently that he's known for tooth-rattling picks and fighting for boards on both ends...I didn't realize his defensive rating was so elite...consider me intrigued.

His defensive impact and screens are elite. He absolutely should be a top target for us. I’d rather pay him ~22 per than pay ~25 for Monk… then again, we could sign both at those numbers if we trade our pick. Something like Cole + our pick for Fontecchio (sign and trade at the start of FA). Depending on Fontecchio’s contract, it should open enough cap space to end up with 3 great role players for this team without breaking the bank and dealing with immovable contracts.

[JBSouthpaw]

know who I've liked, that I'd probably give our 1st this year for?
AYO DOSUNMU.
Good defensive player
Can handle the ball well, would be nice next to Suggs
Shot 50% from the floor, 40% from 3. look at his post all-star stats this year.
Kind of been stuck behind LaVine, White, DeRozen, Caruso and Ball.
CHI could use the draft capital.

i called for him in the draft. We could have drafted him....if we used our 2nd round picks.

Crazy concept!

I don't remember him from the draft, but have really liked him the last 2 years watching him against us.

[tiderulz]

know who I've liked, that I'd probably give our 1st this year for?
AYO DOSUNMU.
Good defensive player
Can handle the ball well, would be nice next to Suggs
Shot 50% from the floor, 40% from 3. look at his post all-star stats this year.
Kind of been stuck behind LaVine, White, DeRozen, Caruso and Ball.
CHI could use the draft capital.

i called for him in the draft. We could have drafted him....if we used our 2nd round picks.

Crazy concept!

I don't remember him from the draft, but have really liked him the last 2 years watching him against us.

there was talk about us having too much youth. I brought up he was a 3 year player, 6'5 with 6'9 wingspan. mentioned at worse he could be our backup PG and could play with Cole.