OT: K Smith changes mind, decides to go pro

[N4U|Redux]

Who?

The best cornerback in the draft.

Smith could prove to have a better NFL career, but right now, Jenkins has actually proven to be a great secondary cover unlike Smith's "proving" to be a great running back.

If either busts in the NFL, it's much more likely to be Mr. "I ran over a bad conference along with Forte."

Jenkins is projected to be a top 10-15 pick, Smith will be lucky to be a pick in the first round period.

[Cammo101]

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The best cornerback in the draft.

Smith could prove to have a better NFL career, but right now, Jenkins has actually proven to be a great secondary cover unlike Smith's "proving" to be a great running back.

If either busts in the NFL, it's much more likely to be Mr. "I ran over a bad conference along with Forte."

Jenkins is projected to be a top 10-15 pick, Smith will be lucky to be a pick in the first round period.

Aqib Talib changed his name?

[craig01]

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Thats right.

Anyone want to place bets on whether UCF even has a winning record next year despite being in a terrible conference?

That's right, they're that bad without Smith that I can contemplate a middle of the pack CUSA team out of them...golly gosh.

Sure I will.

This team can easily be 8-4, 9-3 next year. Both lines should be very good, which is the bottom line most important factor in college football.

This team has size, depth, and is gaining speed dramatically.

Smith's prowess this year offset the inadequacies at QB.

Next year will bring about a more balanced offense behind a huge and agile O'Line.

The QB situation replaces experience with legitimate talent. Israel did not win any games, played well in a few, but had a significant role in all four losses.

[OMPunk]

Our Freshmen RBs can pick up the slack, but don't sleep on Phillip Smith and especially Curtis Francis, that can be a good duo if the Freshmen don't pan out this summer.

24K had that insurance policy and he would have been up for all those awards and a higher draft pick next season. Hope my Eagles draft him.

I'm getting my Smith NFL jersey the second it's available, and if he gets picked up by my favorite team, I will have absolutely no complaints.

Philly could definitely use him, along with Westbrook would make for a great RB combination.

[N4U|Redux]

Aqib Talib changed his name?

Actually, the Jenkins in Ohio is likely the other challenger for #1 CB in the nation. As far as I know, Talib is a bonafide #3. Wherever USF's Jenkins is rated among those guys, he's expected in the top 10-15 of the draft, and Smith will be a borderline first round pick if he's lucky.

Regardless, Smith is not even a top 3 half back in the draft, book it.

P.S. I'm not saying Smith is a worse player than Jenkins, just that Jenkins is better at his position than Smith is, and that Jenkins is proven against good teams. Smith did good against Texas this year, he got destroyed by USF and only got good yards against a 6th place SEC team because he got 900 carries.

[craig01]

50 yards in one half was not destroyed.

Smith vs Jenkins is apples vs oranges.

Smith doesn't get picked in the 1st round. No big deal.

Most of the pre draft prognostications are crap.....all hype, and mostly uninformed.

They mean nothing until after the combine.

PS- Jenkins looked real good against Oregon.........

[DontPushMe]

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I'll take that.

Jenkins goes at least 10 spots higher than Smith.

10 spots? I think Jenkins goes a full round higher than Smith.

[N4U|Redux]

Jenkins looked real good against Oregon.........

Yes, a cornerback controls the entire defense.

To be honest, I wasn't aware he existed at the game though. Neither did I realize Selvie was alive. Or Moffitt, the entire defense was asleep.

Our defensive coach went on the record after the game that he felt the team lacked any 'spark' to play against such a strong/fast team like Oregon and feared we'd get ripped apart without a 'spark.' He was right I guess.

The easy way to have gotten over the Oregon game (as opposed to something like the Rutgers game) is that we just didn't come to play for whatever reason. Maybe we partied too hard, who knows. At least our best player didn't bring his A game against a 6th place SEC team and barely even got 3 yards per carry.

[N4U|Redux]

50 yards in one half was not destroyed.

He still got more carries in that half than most backs (i.e. Slaton) get in an entire game. And he averaged 3.4 yards per carry on 18 carries. I didn't realize that we anywhere close to "good," for one of the best rushers of all-time (as UCF fans purport).

Smith vs Jenkins is apples vs oranges.

I agree, but it's something to be considered very nearly the best at your position, and another to be overrated because of a terrible conference. We'll see if Smith proves it, but he's probably an average NFL back at best. The worst thing Smith did for himself was go to, and then stay at, UCF. He has an aura of "fluke" around him, when he literally could be as good as someone like McFadden. At least now we'll get to find out for real more quickly.

Like I've said, it's no wonder why the top two rushers this season were from the same conference. IT SUCKS. It's not because they're some of the best backs ever. Forte completely killed any of the accomplishment Smith would've had going otherwise because he illustrated just how ridiculous the conference is (did his team even finish .500?).

Smith doesn't get picked in the 1st round. No big deal.

Pretty big deal for the leading rusher in the nation to be passed over by so many others when guys like Jason are trying to make a case that he's somehow on McFadden, Hart's, or Rice's level -- he's light years away.

[UCFJayBird]

You do realize that the reason Smith had to carry the ball so much was because of Israel's lack of talent right? Teams put 8 or 9 in the box all game. Israel had 12 yards and 2 INTs against MSU in the first half.

It's not hard to stop ANY running back when their QB can't give them a little breathing room.

I agree with you that Smith's yards per carry aren't that impressive, but the fact that he did it with such poor passing support is what is. Also Smith tweaked his ankle in the first half of the MSU game, so that effected him in the second half and he couldn't hit the seams as hard.

I think he's above Hart's level (the most overrated player in the nation), and right behind McFadden and Rice, and I think could actually be better (though Rice definitely was mind blowing in his bowl game).

Jenkins will get drafted higher, but i'm not so sure that's because he's such a great CB, but perhaps the CB position isn't as strong as the RB position in the draft this year. Smith is going up against some really good backs in the draft this season, had he gone next year he wouldn't have as much competition to get drafted higher.

It's really apples to oranges though.

And UCF will not be below .500 next year. I think the team will be more balanced and still have a shot at the conference championship.

[N4U|Redux]

I agree with you that Smith's yards per carry aren't that impressive, but the fact that he did it with such poor passing support is what is. Also Smith tweaked his ankle in the first half of the MSU game, so that effected him in the second half and he couldn't hit the seams as hard.

It was far from impressive against USF or Mississippi. Neither are exactly great teams (sad to say).

I think he's above Hart's level (the most overrated player in the nation), and right behind McFadden and Rice, and I think could actually be better (though Rice definitely was mind blowing in his bowl game).

And, here is where the insanity lies.

I guess by that logic Forte is just as good as those guys as well. Or, perhaps your just a massive homer and don't want to admit that it's not a coincidence that conference usa produced the two leading rushers in the country because the conference is complete garbage.

Jenkins will get drafted higher, but i'm not so sure that's because he's such a great CB, but perhaps the CB position isn't as strong as the RB position in the draft this year.

Of course it's because the RB position is so strong. However, it's not like if Jenkins was a middle of the pack CB that he'd get a high pick just because he's the best of a terrible position, what logic is that? The guy is one of the best corners in the game and has proven so against strong offenses -- except Oregon, which he had a bigger excuse than Smith and one-dimensional UCF had against Miss St.

Smith is going up against some really good backs in the draft this season, had he gone next year he wouldn't have as much competition to get drafted higher.

What exactly is your point? Being deep at a position in the draft doesn't hurt someone's prospects of being drafted high if they're actually one of the best. There's a reason McFadden will almost definitely go in the top 2 and will be shocking to see him drop out of the top 5. If the top 5 RBs in the draft were the top 5 players in the draft you'd see them all get picked simultaneously. Smith has such a massive aura of uncertainty that he will not be picked highly, it's not solely because there's other great backs there.

And UCF will not be below .500 next year. I think the team will be more balanced and still have a shot at the conference championship.

Would you be shocked if they did? Do you really expect your recruits this year to make a big impact immediately? Btw, yes you have recruited very well. From what we saw out of Greco this year, he wasn't exactly impressive. Maybe he'll improve in the off-season but he's nothing exceptional (it's not hard to be better than Israel).

What I would find hilarious is if your replacement to start at RB pulls Forte numbers out of his ass.

Bottom line, Smith is a good back, around a top 5 back in the game. But he deservedly has an 'unknown' aura around him. He played well against one of the good run defenses he saw this year and averaged barely over 3 yards per carry against the other two. The other evidence we have for him is against the opponents of his conference that both he and Forte ran over all year. It's not hard to be the fastest two legged person in a one legged race.

[AdamTheGreek]

I think someone should pull out Forte's schedule because I'm pretty sure he was running over Sun Belt conferences. Forte wasn't even mentioned in the last 5 weeks of the season because I'm pretty sure he was finally playing some good C-USA opponents and was being shutdown.

[UCFJayBird]

C'mon n4u, we all know that's not the way the draft works. The best players don't necessarily go in that order. Especially in the NFL. Most teams draft for need first, talent second. I don't mean they'll pick a bad safety over a good running back, but if it's anywhere close they'll take the player they need.

That was my point in regarding Kevin being in such a deep running back draft compared to Jenkins. However, i'll note I don't know anything about this year's corner backs, so I don't know how good Jenkins is considered to backs in years past. But I do know the RB position is very deep this year, and in my opinion the need for a RB by teams is lower this year (a lot of quality backs in the NFL right now IMO). So Kevin might be the 4th back taken, but that might be in the late 2nd round (generally 2 are taken in the 1st round, 2 in the 2nd, 3rd in the 3rd). Meanwhile, perhaps more teams are looking for secondary help, so Jenkins is more likely to be taken higher based on that.

Not saying Jenkins is a worse player, just saying don't discredit Smith because he's projected to go higher in the draft.

As for Forte, I think he's a little underrated. A top 10 back, and a surprise player for sure. But unlike Smith, when he faced OOC competition, he did very badly. Smith put up good numbers against all but USF.

Would I be shocked if UCF was under .500? Not really no. Because our QB play is so unpredictable right now. If Greco or Weatherford can play well I think we can be a pretty good team. Greco didn't impress when he did play this year you're right, but realize he joined the team like two days before the Texas game. He barely knows the playbook because of it. And Weatherford has apparently looked great. We'll have to see how he does.

No, I don't expect our recruits to make THAT big of a impact, but I think our young players will. And I think the change at QB will be light and day better. Israel was great before the snap, but afterwards he was terrible, and in every big game he sucked royal ass and blew it. Before the Texas game he was telling people he was scared. Even if he was he shouldn't be telling people that.

[N4U|Redux]

C'mon n4u, we all know that's not the way the draft works. The best players don't necessarily go in that order. Especially in the NFL. Most teams draft for need first, talent second. I don't mean they'll pick a bad safety over a good running back, but if it's anywhere close they'll take the player they need.

Agreed, I was exaggerating obviously.

So Kevin might be the 4th back taken, but that might be in the late 2nd round (generally 2 are taken in the 1st round, 2 in the 2nd, 3rd in the 3rd). Meanwhile, perhaps more teams are looking for secondary help, so Jenkins is more likely to be taken higher based on that.

And, herein lies the problem with him somehow being better than, or on par with, guys like McFadden or Rice, or even Hart. If he was as good as you say he is, quite frankly, he would go closer to the top. I'll actually be surprised if he beats out a guy like Steve Slaton out of West Virginia. Don't be surprised to see him slip as the 5th back.

Smith could very well be as good as those guys, I don't know -- but neither do you. You're making this huge leap of faith which is completely unproven (that he's on the caliber of a guy like Rice who plays against actual good teams).

Not saying Jenkins is a worse player, just saying don't discredit Smith because he's projected to go higher in the draft.

I like Smith, I look forward to him proving himself in the NFL and hope he does. He has a higher chance of busting than guys like McFadden, Rice, and Hart do though.

As for Forte, I think he's a little underrated. A top 10 back, and a surprise player for sure. But unlike Smith, when he faced OOC competition, he did very badly. Smith put up good numbers against all but USF.

No, he put up tons of carries against his OOC opponents, he did not do well against USF or Mississippi. Who else did UCF play OOC that was actually a decent team? His performance against Miss St was inflated because of the rediculous amount of carries, but his average yardage was laughable, especially against a mere 6th place SEC team. And, you've discredited McFadden at times for not rushing big even though he plays against tougher competition and gets less carries, gee whiz.

Him blowing up Texas doesn't prove much. It proves that if he played in a good conference that he'd likely have a more up and down production (which would be fine). He certainly wouldn't get anywhere near what he got in C-USA.

Greco didn't impress when he did play this year you're right, but realize he joined the team like two days before the Texas game. He barely knows the playbook because of it. And Weatherford has apparently looked great. We'll have to see how he does.

Cool. How's the receiving corps over there? Anyone to throw the ball to next year? Anyone is better than Israel, but now there will be some onus on the receivers to get the job done next year since you'll have a weaker tail back (unless C-USA is just total crap and you can replicate Smith's success again).

[Fan from day 1]

smith will probably go after round 3.

[lovehoops01]

Wow...N4U....You're in peak form today. It's really not worth getting that worked up about, is it? 24K has made his choice. UCF fans will have to get used to it, and he'll get to do what he wants. There is no reason for anyone to be upset. It's Kevin's life, and he needs to do what is in his heart. It's actually a tough choice for him. Go pro and he is in the hands of the NFL scouts. Stay, and he risks not having as good of a season or getting injured.

One thing, though, in your assessment of his decision to attend UCF....Did you know that Smith played cornerback instead of running back in his senior year of high school? For that reason, he wasn't highly recruited as a running back. One of the reasons he decided to go to UCF is because George O'Leary remembered seeing him as a running back his junior season and told him that he wanted him to play running back for his team. Apparently, he didn't have a lot of other offers that he wanted to do that because he played cornerback his senior season. So, the decision worked for him however you look at it. Hopefully, his most recent one will, too. Let's just wish him the best; he did well for UCF.

[N4U|Redux]

One thing, though, in your assessment of his decision to attend UCF....Did you know that Smith played cornerback instead of running back in his senior year of high school? For that reason, he wasn't highly recruited as a running back.

Yes, I asked the other UCF fans why such a highly talented recruit as Smith would even consider Smith -- turns out he wasn't a RB at all and that GOL helped mold him into it.

Thus, my notation of not being sure why he bothered to stay once he figured out he was so good. Athletes transfer for those types of reasons all the time. For instance, USF just got a UF TE to transfer because he was stuck behind two other good TE's -- he was a 4-star recruit out of Tampa that went to UF. That player made the decision to leave and get playing time at an up and coming school. Smith probably should've considered transferring to a better school. Maybe I'm looking at this from too much of a business side though, but apparently so is Kevin since he's postponing his college education for a risky NFL draft.

I really don't want to sound like I hate Smith BTW, I like him and respect him. I do get irritated when people put him in the same class as McFadden and Rice though, it's completely and utterly absurd.

[lovehoops01]

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Yes, I asked the other UCF fans why such a highly talented recruit as Smith would even consider Smith -- turns out he wasn't a RB at all and that GOL helped mold him into it.

Thus, my notation of not being sure why he bothered to stay once he figured out he was so good. Athletes transfer for those types of reasons all the time. For instance, USF just got a UF TE to transfer because he was stuck behind two other good TE's -- he was a 4-star recruit out of Tampa that went to UF. That player made the decision to leave and get playing time at an up and coming school. Smith probably should've considered transferring to a better school. Maybe I'm looking at this from too much of a business side though, but apparently so is Kevin since he's postponing his college education for a risky NFL draft.

I really don't want to sound like I hate Smith BTW, I like him and respect him. I do get irritated when people put him in the same class as McFadden and Rice though, it's completely and utterly absurd.

Well, he didn't look as outstanding his freshman season, though you could see he had promise to be an oustanding player. He was good, but not this good.

He had to miss a couple games his sophomore season with a shoulder injury.

Maybe he just felt a little loyalty to UCF for giving him an opportunity to do something he really wanted to do when other teams wouldn't. That's why Daunte Culpepper went to UCF when teams bailed on him early because they were afraid they couldn't get his grades up to get him into school. Then, once UCF stuck with him and he got his grades up, all these other teams came in on him at the last minute, but he stayed with UCF because they stood with him when no one else would. He still was highly drafted in the first round. Some NFL teams see guys like this as good character for good team players and factor that in when they make their selections.

Did you know that Asante Samuel -- a highly successful New England Patriots cornerback -- played at UCF, too? Or Brandon Marshall with the Denver Broncos?

All kinds of good football players end up outside of the top programs because sometimes some of those programs get too caught up on the number of stars behind a player's name in the recruiting services. And it doesn't usually hurt their chances of getting to the NFL. In fact, sometimes it improves their chances because they actually get to play. Some of those guys would get pinned underneath some of those multiple-star recruits at other programs and their stars would never get an opportunity to shine. Besides, O'Leary has been an NFL assistant coach as well as a coach at a big-time college program. He has NFL coaching contacts. That doesn't hurt his players when they want to go pro either.

[N4U|Redux]

Thanks for the enlightening post.

By the way, I implied what you said about

Some of those guys would get pinned underneath some of those multiple-star recruits at other programs and their stars would never get an opportunity to shine.

when I talked about the 4-star UF TE coming over to USF for no other reason then to get playing time.

[N4U|Redux]

Did you know that Asante Samuel -- a highly successful New England Patriots cornerback -- played at UCF, too? Or Brandon Marshall with the Denver Broncos?

How could I not?