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Welp, season is over. Last place in the league. A successful start to the rebuild.

Top 4 pick is guaranteed in the upcoming draft. The lottery takes place April 30th.

Picks we have in the upcoming draft:

[Spoiler]Round 1
Leafs
Pens

Round 2
Leafs
Caps

Round 3
Leafs
Devils (via Pitt)

Round 4
Leafs
Avalanche

Round 5
Leafs

Round 6
Leafs
Blues

Round 7
Leafs

12 picks in total.[/Spoiler]

Pending free agents:

[Spoiler]Michael Grabner (UFA)
Ben Smith (UFA)
PA Parenteau (UFA)
Brad Boyes (UFA)

Nazem Kadri (RFA)
Peter Holland (RFA)
Morgan Rielly (RFA)
Martin Marincin (RFA)
Connor Carrick (RFA)
Frank Corrado (RFA)
Garret Sparks (RFA)
Josh Leivo (RFA)
Stuart Percy (RFA)
Scott Harrington (RFA)
[/Spoiler]

It's a really exciting off-season to be a Leafs fan. A 1 in 4 chance at Matthews is great, but there is also a ton of potential, with all of the other draft picks, to move up, if so desired, or to just use a "tossing spaghetti against the wall" approach to the draft. With drafts split across multiple days now, having the top pick of day 2 can also be a valuable thing.

Mike Hunt wrote:It's a really exciting off-season to be a Leafs fan. A 1 in 4 chance at Matthews is great, but there is also a ton of potential, with all of the other draft picks, to move up, if so desired, or to just use a "tossing spaghetti against the wall" approach to the draft. With drafts split across multiple days now, having the top pick of day 2 can also be a valuable thing.

If they get number one I hope they try to offer it to Arizona leveraging as much as they can from them. I think Laine is better talent than Matthews.

They're going to take Matthews with the 1st overall. The team hasn't had a 1C since Sundin.

2nd overall and picking Laine is a great consolation prize. His ceiling is probably the highest in the draft but the Leafs desperately need a 1C. Have a hard time seeing them passing on Matthews

I hope Edmonton doesn't grab either.

Mohanad wrote:They're going to take Matthews with the 1st overall. The team hasn't had a 1C since Sundin.

2nd overall and picking Laine is a great consolation prize. His ceiling is probably the highest in the draft but the Leafs desperately need a 1C. Have a hard time seeing them passing on Matthews

I hope Edmonton doesn't grab either.

Say Arizona gets a top 3 pick and Leafs get the #1 overall.

Auston Mathews is a Arizona native. The Coyotes want him as their face. They have a deep farm, can afford to deal with the Leafs. Have Mathews is Arizona would do magic for them. Home town kid.

Imagine if the Leafs could walk away with Max Domi "and" Laine.... that is too tempting..... no?

Mathews is a great talent, but he is not generational like McDavid last season..... Leafs can get their 1A centre in Stamkos instead.

And we won the lottery!!!

1st overall!

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ShawnReis/status/593104118207623169[/tweet]

In case anybody's doubting what this kid's capable of, he was two days away from being eligible in last year's draft where he would have been chosen by some scouts ahead of Eichel for second overall.

Look at his numbers compared to other US players. It's really the best player not named McDavid. Plus he's already playing in a men's pro league in Switzerland. He's a special player, no doubt, even if Laine may score more goals now and again. Ovy scores more goals than Crosby, for instance, but there's a reason Crosby's the player to build around more. Not comparing Matthews and Laine to those two, but the latter's been viewed as a more pure scorer, and I think Matthews is the better overall player, intangibles included. Centres are a harder get, as well. We've got great depth down the middle and in the lanes, too, now, just incredible.

Can someone explain the new lottery system in the NHL? Apparently the numbers that came up were 6-8-5-13, and we won the #1 pick on lucky that #13 ball, which was our last chance to get first overall. I don't get why we had only that one choice after those particular other ball numbers came up. Thanks

Auston Matthews! Finally a little luck

GREY 1769 wrote:Can someone explain the new lottery system in the NHL? Apparently the numbers that came up were 6-8-5-13, and we won the #1 pick on lucky that #13 ball, which was our last chance to get first overall. I don't get why we had only that one choice after those particular other ball numbers came up. Thanks

There are 14 balls, 4 are drawn without replacement, the order they come out doesn't matter (1,2,3,4 and 4,3,2,1 are the same combination). This gives 1,001 possible combinations. 1 combination is a 'redraw' and the other 1,000 are assigned to teams before hand to get the appropriate odds (if you are supposed to have a 20% chance of winning, you get 200 combinations assigned to you).

The combinations are assigned before hand. There are 11 combinations that contain a 6, 8 and 5, the three balls that came up first. The Leafs only owned 1 of those 11 combinations: 5, 6, 8, 13. So at the time of the last ball coming out, the Leafs only had a 9% chance of winning.

distracted wrote:

GREY 1769 wrote:Can someone explain the new lottery system in the NHL? Apparently the numbers that came up were 6-8-5-13, and we won the #1 pick on lucky that #13 ball, which was our last chance to get first overall. I don't get why we had only that one choice after those particular other ball numbers came up. Thanks

There are 14 balls, 4 are drawn without replacement, the order they come out doesn't matter (1,2,3,4 and 4,3,2,1 are the same combination). This gives 1,001 possible combinations. 1 combination is a 'redraw' and the other 1,000 are assigned to teams before hand to get the appropriate odds (if you are supposed to have a 20% chance of winning, you get 200 combinations assigned to you).

The combinations are assigned before hand. There are 11 combinations that contain a 6, 8 and 5, the three balls that came up first. The Leafs only owned 1 of those 11 combinations: 5, 6, 8, 13. So at the time of the last ball coming out, the Leafs only had a 9% chance of winning.

Very clear explanation, thank you! Someone on another board posted a math formula and that just made things all the more confusing lol It's not easy to explain complex (at least to me) formulas but now I understand just how minuscule the Leafs' chances of getting that pick actually were!

Fans are attributing destiny to them: 5 and 6 are retired Leaf numbers, it's been 8 years since Sundin, and, of course, his number was 13. Whatever forces were at play, I'm thrilled that the tide has turned in our favour. At long last.

Watching Mathews and Laine vids has me wanting Laine more. Not as smooth as Mathews but his stick handling and shot are amazing. Plus he seems a little more easygoing, while still showing great passion for the game.

BBallInSight wrote:Watching Mathews and Laine vids has me wanting Laine more. Not as smooth as Mathews but his stick handling and shot are amazing. Plus he seems a little more easygoing, while still showing great passion for the game.

He might well be a better point getter, but Cs of Matthews calibre don't grow on trees. Plus, I think Matthews is a better setup man than Laine, who is more like a pure goal scorer. I generally value complete players over goal scorers. I don't know, I still think you should gamble on Matthews even though I'm starting to have some doubts about his ultimate ceiling right now.

LLJ wrote:

BBallInSight wrote:Watching Mathews and Laine vids has me wanting Laine more. Not as smooth as Mathews but his stick handling and shot are amazing. Plus he seems a little more easygoing, while still showing great passion for the game.

He might well be a better point getter, but Cs of Matthews calibre don't grow on trees. Plus, I think Matthews is a better setup man than Laine, who is more like a pure goal scorer. I generally value complete players over goal scorers. I don't know, I still think you should gamble on Matthews even though I'm starting to have some doubts about his ultimate ceiling right now.

I hear ya, but I've seen some pretty impressive playmaking from Laine too (yes, he wouldn't be in position to make plays like a center would).

BBallInSight wrote:

LLJ wrote:

BBallInSight wrote:Watching Mathews and Laine vids has me wanting Laine more. Not as smooth as Mathews but his stick handling and shot are amazing. Plus he seems a little more easygoing, while still showing great passion for the game.

He might well be a better point getter, but Cs of Matthews calibre don't grow on trees. Plus, I think Matthews is a better setup man than Laine, who is more like a pure goal scorer. I generally value complete players over goal scorers. I don't know, I still think you should gamble on Matthews even though I'm starting to have some doubts about his ultimate ceiling right now.

I hear ya, but I've seen some pretty impressive playmaking from Laine too (yes, he wouldn't be in position to make plays like a center would).

Most scoring wingers do have some playmaking ability. Ovechkin gets assists too. Just not on the same level as a Crosby or Toews, or other star Cs. Kessel also made plays for others when he was here too. But I think, as you said, being C puts Matthews in a position where he as to be more of an all around player. Having a guy win face-offs, make plays for others and score at a star calibre quality is just far rarer to find than a scoring winger.

matthews
marner
nylander
rielly
kapanen
soshnikov
brown
leipsic
bracco
+ whoever we add elsewhere in the draft this year

not bad at all. a couple of these kids have to pan out. need more elite D prospects and some goalies though.

With 7 of the top-100 picks in this year's draft, I'm looking forward to seeing if we can see a clear approach to the draft, by the Leafs. Last year certainly seemed like talent was most important, not size, not need. I know the Matthews pick is the big one (we can close the book on it), but the excitement will be at #30+.

Here's one thing to consider for people who wanted Laine over the top Centre, Matthews.

Leafs have not had a legit elite C since Sundin... heard on the radio that Nashville has been looking for one for 20 years!

These guys are hard to come by. They will almost never become FAs and trading for one requires a HUGE price "if" they are even on the block.

Leafs made the right choice on Centre. Matthews

North_of_Border wrote:Here's one thing to consider for people who wanted Laine over the top Centre, Matthews.

Leafs have not had a legit elite C since Sundin... heard on the radio that Nashville has been looking for one for 20 years!

These guys are hard to come by. They will almost never become FAs and trading for one requires a HUGE price "if" they are even on the block.

Leafs made the right choice on Centre. Matthews

Agree 100%.

So our young core up front is Matthews, Marner, Nylander. You can still include guys like JVR and Kadri who are still relatively young. If you sign Stamkos that's a pretty solid core up front.

On the back end you've got Gardiner and Reilly to start with and probably a few others and now you have goalie set with Anderson at age 26.

They seem to really be setting themselves up nicely.

Agreed. Just one or two more seasons of "tanking", and I think our team will be set.

Kind of glad the Leafs are sitting back after losing out on Stamkos, some ridiculous money being handed out again.