RealGM Wolves Capology

[younggunsmn]

2024 (10% Cap Bump Scenario)
1. Towns 52,333,085
2. Gobert 43,827,586
3. Edwards 37,380,750 (44,856,930 for supermax)
4. McDaniels 22,600,000 (+1 mil in possible incentives).
5. Reid 13,986,432
6. Conley 10.500.000
7. NAW 4,312,500
8. Moore 2,537,000
9. Minott 2,019,699
10. Miller 1,891,857
11. 1st Round Pick (29) 2,520,120
12. Vet Min 2,221,677
13. Vet Min 2,221,677
14. 2nd Round Pick (rookie min) 1,231,519

2-way: Clark + 2 open spots

Total: 199,583,902
Total (ant supermax): 207,060,082

2024/25 Estimated Salary Cap 149.523,100
2024/25 Estimated Luxury Tax 181,823,400
2024/25 Estimated 1st Apron 189,580,600
2024/25 Estimated 2nd Apron 201,073,400

Estimated amount into the luxury tax: 17,760,502
Estimated amount into the luxury tax (ANT supermax) 25,236,682

First 5.5 million 1.5/1: 8.250
2nd 5.5 million 1.75/1: 9.625 (17.875 total)
3rd 5.5 million 2.50/1: 13.750 (31.625 total)
4th 5.5 million 3.25/1: 17.875 (49.5 total)
5th 5.5 million 3.75/1: 20.625 (70.125 total)
6th 5.5 million 4.25/1: 23.375 (93.5 total)

Tax on 17,760,502: 35,721,631
Tax on 25,236,682: 61,637,557

Free Agents:
Anderson
Monte Morris
Vet min signing (deadline of 2/22 to add a player)
McLaughlin
Garza

[younggunsmn]

2024 (5% Cap Bump Scenario)
1. Towns 49,987,717
2. Gobert 43,827,586
3. Edwards 35,705,512 (supermax 42,846,615)
4. McDaniels 22,600,000 (+1 mil in possible incentives).
5. Reid 13,986,432
6. Conley 10.500.000
7. NAW 4,312,500
8. Moore 2,537,000
9. Minott 2,019,699
10. Miller 1,891,857
11. 1st Round Pick (29) 2,520,120
12. Vet Min 2,120,691
13. Vet Min 2,120,691
14. 2nd Round Pick (rookie min) 1,175,541

2-way: Clark + 2 open spots

Total: 195,305,346
Total (ANT supermax): 202,446.449

2024/25 Estimated Salary Cap 142,822,050
2024/25 Estimated Luxury Tax 173,558,700
2024/25 Estimated 1st Apron 180,963,300
2024/25 Estimated 2nd Apron 191,933,700

Into the Luxury tax: 21,746,646
Into the Luxury tax (ANT supermax): 28,887,749

First 5.25 million: 1.25/1: 6.5625
2nd 5.25 million 1.75/1: 9.1875 (15.75 total)
3rd 5.25 million 2.50/1: 13.125 (28.875 total)
4th 5.25 million 3.25/1: 17.0625 (45.9375 total)
5th 5.25 million 3.75/1: 19.6875 (65.625 total)
6th 5.25 million 4.25/1: 22.3125 (87.9375 total)

Luxury tax on 21,746,646: 48,737,422
Luxury tax on 28,887,749: 76,835,433

[younggunsmn]

TLDR version:
Status Quo (no trades, fill out roster with vet mins and draft picks) Luxury tax bills for next season:

10% cap bump scenario tax bill:
Ant does not meet supermax criteria (1st or 2nd team All-NBA): 35,721,631
Ant meets supermax criteria: 61,637,557

5% cap bump scenario tax bill:
Ant not supermax: 48,737,422
Ant supermax: 76,835,433

In other words, the smaller the cap bump, the more luxury tax we will have to pay.
But if things don't end well this year, a smaller cap bump also reduces KAT's salary and makes him a more attractive asset in a trade.

[younggunsmn]

Also as a thought exercise, if we were able to bring back Monte Morris for say 5 million, that would be ~2.8 million more than a vet minimum.

The tax on that extra salary, which could be anywhere from 3.25-4.75:1 depending on other factors like the cap bump and Ant's supermax, would range from about 9-13.5 million of extra tax.
We might be willing to pay 14-18 million in real world money IF the team is successful this year and he plays well for us.
On the other hand if we made a deep run we might also be able to attract a comparable vet min ring chaser.

However, going up to 8 million, we would be looking at 19-28 million in extra tax, which is probably too rich.


Also, looking at that potential roster, with Miller, Moore, Minott and 2 potential draft picks, that's 5/14 roster spots on projects who aren't reliable rotation players. I expect Minott (unguaranteed) to be cut before July 1st, and another vet added, and for us to try to dump Moore via trade to add another vet or even a rookie min to save money.
If anyone had been willing to take Moore at the trade deadline though, I think he would be gone already.
Maybe the best we can hope for is a 1:1 trade for an unwanted vet min player on another team.

Kyle Anderson has also regressed terribly this year and I would not be surprised at all if we could get him back for the vet minimum.
If not, just sign a vet min backup for Jaden and/or trade Moore for one.
Kyle fills a role in that he is switchable defensively and can guard 3's and 4's well and that is the kind of player I would look for.
McLaughlin also makes sense to bring back as a 3rd PG unless we find a better option.

Add a big with one of the 2-way spots.

[vtime]

Is it possible to be over the apron for 2024-2025 and then get Rudy to opt out of his final season of 25-26 to take a cheaper but longer term deal?

[shrink]

Is it possible to be over the apron for 2024-2025 and then get Rudy to opt out of his final season of 25-26 to take a cheaper but longer term deal?

Yes! And I think that is a strong possibility if we have success next year, and ownership is willing to continue to pay lux taxes.

Rudy will turn 33 at the end of June 2024. If he picks up his option, he’ll get $46.6 mil, but if he declines, he could add years to a new deal. In fact, according to CBA rules, he is eligible to be extended this summer, since he signed his 5-year deal over two years ago. Several aging stars have done this for security, and it even has a glib monicker, “years not dollars.”

With the Wolves ownership uncertainty, and tax-paying uncertainty as well, it’s unlikely we’ll see something like that get done so soon. However, an extension could look like three years for $110 (with some limitations on guaranteed money). Gobert would get less than $46.6 his first year, but he might make secure more money with the extension than he might get in free agency at 34.

[shrink]

The salary cap for 2024-25 is projected to only go up 3.66% to $141 mil. When the new TV deal kicks in after the 2024-25 season, we can expect the cap to increase by exactly 10% for several years because the NBA and Players Union agreed to cap smoothing. This is good news for MIN. Since the salary cap is only going up a small amount this year, those first years of KAT’s 35% max and Ant’s 30% max won’t start on as big a number. And while they will both receive 8% raises, the cap will raise 10%, and any new designated max deals will be more expensive than theirs.

I’ve also noticed that because average people are being shocked by the numbers for salaries based on a rising cap, more and more experts talk about percentages of the cap rather than dollars. However, many listeners confuse percent of the cap with the percent of total payroll. For example, Ant will make 30% of the $141 mil salary cap, or $42.3 mil. However, our payroll is likely to be close to the second apron, of $189.5 mil, so Ant’s salary will only be 22.3% of our payroll.

[Klomp]

The salary cap for 2024-25 is projected to only be $141 mil. When the new TV deal kicks in, we can expect the cap to increase by exactly 10% for several years because the NBA and Players Union agreed to cap smoothing. This is good news for MIN. Since the salary cap is only going up 3.66%, those first years of KAT’s 35% max and Ant’s 30% max won’t start on as big a number. They can both receive 8% raises, but since the cap will raise 10%, new designated max deals will be more expensive than theirs.

I’ve also noticed that because average people are being shocked by the numbers for salaries based on a rising cap, more and more experts talk about percentages of the cap rather than dollars. However, many listeners confuse percent of the cap for percent of total payroll. For example, Ant will make 30% of the $141 mil salary cap, or $42.3 mil. However, our payroll is likely to be close to the second apron, of $189.5 mil, so Ant’s salary will only be 22.3% of our payroll.

Also, people should be reminded that KG was up over 50% of the cap in his prime years here