Trade Talk (Part 15): Trade Deadline Day (and onwards!)

[shrink]

I will say that I expect that we will be championship contenders in 2025 as well, and owners don’t (or maybe the correct word is “shouldn’t”) get rid of the top end talent of championship contenders. It would be wonderful to keep the entire young core of Ant, Jaden, Naz and NAW, but Towns and Gobert are easily the second and third most talented, and important, pieces in a championship run. Unless we see incredible growth in Jaden, Naz and NAW next year, ownership shouldn’t cut Rudy or KAT, and that means we can’t afford to keep all of that young core.

With Ant’s supermax, we will be a second apron team next year, especially if they choose to bring back SloMo. And we will certainly be a second apron team in 2025-26, with Naz and NAW looking for big raises.

Let’s break this down a bit.

Jaden is under contract for 5 years. He is making in the 20s each year. Ant gets what approximately 40+ a year with gradual increases. NAW will probably make 15, and Naz will probably make 20-25 a year. So all in say that is 100. This means we have 60-70 or more to build a non tax team around. If you trade Karl you will look for a Sabonis for Hali type deal with a blue chip coming back. You will likely sign Rudy at a discount and that is your top 6 with another 30-40 left. Expect at least one or two vet minimum ring chasers, and hope for the development of Miller and Minott. Losing Karl will hurt, but it is hardly the end of contention. Jaden has already showed more offensive potential when given more opportunities and shots. NAW is inconsistent but could easily be our 6th man. Naz has shown tremendous growth year by year and was dropping 20+ nightly with Karl out. He also tends to player and more consistent basketball with more minutes. I wouldn’t assume losing one or both Karl and Rudy would be for nothing. I also wouldn’t assume we couldn’t retool and contend with our young core in their primes and new talent brought in to fit them more directly.

2025-26
45.7 Ant (with the 30% supermax)
24.4 Jaden
???? Naz (when he declines his $15 mil player option)
???? NAW

With the cap going up the next two years, I don’t think $25 for Naz is unreasonable, particularly since we can expect him to improve. NAW will also improve, and if he only makes the NBA average salary (MLE) $13.5, (and I expect someone will likely offer $16-17 to outbid the MLE teams), 45.7+24.4+25+13.5 = 108.6. The numbers I’m using don’t assume a 10% rise each year also, so I think $110 would be a reasonable number for keeping those four players.

We know Towns number in 2025-26 is $53.3. We can hope Rudy takes a pay cut off his $46.7 player option, and I’m hoping for $30 a year. That would be $185 for six players.

Then we have Miller and Minott for about $2.1 each. Even vet min deals are going to be around $2.5 mil, and 6 of them (for roster of 14) would be another $15 mil. We can maybe carve out a little more money on second round rookies, but likely aren’t going to be the Suns, and have six good players and a cheap, horrible bench.

Spotrac estimates the luxury threshold at $188.5, and the second apron at $208.4. Something’s got to give.

[winforlose]

I will say that I expect that we will be championship contenders in 2025 as well, and owners don’t (or maybe the correct word is “shouldn’t”) get rid of the top end talent of championship contenders. It would be wonderful to keep the entire young core of Ant, Jaden, Naz and NAW, but Towns and Gobert are easily the second and third most talented, and important, pieces in a championship run. Unless we see incredible growth in Jaden, Naz and NAW next year, ownership shouldn’t cut Rudy or KAT, and that means we can’t afford to keep all of that young core.

With Ant’s supermax, we will be a second apron team next year, especially if they choose to bring back SloMo. And we will certainly be a second apron team in 2025-26, with Naz and NAW looking for big raises.

Let’s break this down a bit.

Jaden is under contract for 5 years. He is making in the 20s each year. Ant gets what approximately 40+ a year with gradual increases. NAW will probably make 15, and Naz will probably make 20-25 a year. So all in say that is 100. This means we have 60-70 or more to build a non tax team around. If you trade Karl you will look for a Sabonis for Hali type deal with a blue chip coming back. You will likely sign Rudy at a discount and that is your top 6 with another 30-40 left. Expect at least one or two vet minimum ring chasers, and hope for the development of Miller and Minott. Losing Karl will hurt, but it is hardly the end of contention. Jaden has already showed more offensive potential when given more opportunities and shots. NAW is inconsistent but could easily be our 6th man. Naz has shown tremendous growth year by year and was dropping 20+ nightly with Karl out. He also tends to player and more consistent basketball with more minutes. I wouldn’t assume losing one or both Karl and Rudy would be for nothing. I also wouldn’t assume we couldn’t retool and contend with our young core in their primes and new talent brought in to fit them more directly.

2025-26
45.7 Ant (with the 30% supermax)
24.4 Jaden
???? Naz (when he declines his $15 mil player option)
???? NAW

With the cap going up the next two years, I don’t think $25 for Naz is unreasonable, particularly since we can expect him to improve. NAW will also improve, and if he only makes the NBA average salary (MLE) $13.5, (and I expect someone will likely offer $16-17 to outbid the MLE teams), 45.7+24.4+25+13.5 = 108.6. The numbers I’m using don’t assume a 10% rise each year also, so I think $110 would be a reasonable number for keeping those four players.

We know Towns number in 2025-26 is $53.3. We can hope Rudy takes a pay cut off his $46.7 player option, and I’m hoping for $30 a year. That would be $185 for six players.

Then we have Miller and Minott for about $2.1 each. Even vet min deals are going to be around $2.5 mil, and 6 of them (for roster of 14) would be another $15 mil. We can maybe carve out a little more money on second round rookies, but likely aren’t going to be the Suns, and have six good players and a cheap, horrible bench.

Spotrac estimates the luxury threshold at $188.5, and the second apron at $208.4. Something’s got to give.

I will use your numbers, but you must use the 10%. I say that because all of the media rights deals are done but TNT/NBC and at a minimum that is 2.5 Billion with a possibility of rising to 2.8 billion. That money must make its way in. Even assuming for some strange reason it doesn’t for 24-25 it will for 25-26. Also don’t forget the expansion may affect the cap.

Karl is the most likely to move. Pretend that you get a blue chip 3rd year rookie scale player plus another value contract. Now instead of 53 you might be looking at 35-40. With the cap increases I think you can get under the second apron, and I think this team would be profitable enough to pay some repeater tax in the first apron.

[shrink]

Karl is the most likely to move.

If MIN wasn’t a championship contender next year, I would agree with you.

I think MIN will be even better next year, and they won’t be shopping Towns or Rudy.

[winforlose]

Karl is the most likely to move.

If MIN wasn’t a championship contender next year, I would agree with you.

I think MIN will be even better next year, and they won’t be shopping Towns or Rudy.

I am confused, I thought we were discussing 25-26?

[shrink]

Karl is the most likely to move.

If MIN wasn’t a championship contender next year, I would agree with you.

I think MIN will be even better next year, and they won’t be shopping Towns or Rudy.

I am confused, I thought we were discussing 25-26?

I think we will be a contender this year 23-24, a contender next year 24-25, and we won’t break it up as a contender for 25-26.

[winforlose]

If MIN wasn’t a championship contender next year, I would agree with you.

I think MIN will be even better next year, and they won’t be shopping Towns or Rudy.

I am confused, I thought we were discussing 25-26?

I think we will be a contender this year 23-24, a contender next year 24-25, and we won’t break it up as a contender for 25-26.

You realize we will pay repeater tax at second apron?

[shrink]

I am confused, I thought we were discussing 25-26?

I think we will be a contender this year 23-24, a contender next year 24-25, and we won’t break it up as a contender for 25-26.

You realize we will pay repeater tax at second apron?

Of course, but I think cuts will come from the younger players (Naz, McDaniels, NAW) rather than the Towns, Gobert (or Ant).

[winforlose]

I think we will be a contender this year 23-24, a contender next year 24-25, and we won’t break it up as a contender for 25-26.

You realize we will pay repeater tax at second apron?

Of course, but I think cuts will come from the younger players (Naz, McDaniels, Ant) rather than the vets.

Okay, gonna be honest, you have lost me a bit. The cuts? You think we trade Ant or Jaden to lower our cost? Trading Naz at 25 million to keep Karl at 53 million doesn’t make sense when Naz is 26 and Karl is 31. Big men with knee issues tend to decline by 34. Naz will be entering his prime. Karl will also presumably still have trade value and name recognition (specifically as a two time NBA champion.) He would likely get you back players that keep you relevant. Also, remember that Ant has a window that extends beyond Karl, Mike, and Rudy. Ant will want the young core, and he will likely be more willing to move on from Karl than multiple younger key players.

[shrink]

You realize we will pay repeater tax at second apron?

Of course, but I think cuts will come from the younger players (Naz, McDaniels, Ant) rather than the vets.

Okay, gonna be honest, you have lost me a bit. The cuts? You think we trade Ant or Jaden to lower our cost? Trading Naz at 25 million to keep Karl at 53 million doesn’t make sense when Naz is 26 and Karl is 31. Big men with knee issues tend to decline by 34. Naz will be entering his prime. Karl will also presumably still have trade value and name recognition (specifically as a two time NBA champion.) He would likely get you back players that keep you relevant. Also, remember that Ant has a window that extends beyond Karl, Mike, and Rudy. Ant will want the young core, and he will likely be more willing to move on from Karl than multiple younger key players.

I disagree. I guess we will see. Let’s win a couple rings, and see how we feel?

[Klomp]

I don't see any way that NAW is only a MLE guy on his next contract.

[shrink]

I don't see any way that NAW is only a MLE guy on his next contract.

I agree, I think if NAW reaches free agency, some team will offer him a few mil more than the MLE to shut out other suitors.

But I don’t see him getting to $20. Younggunsmn put it in one of his informational posts, but my take is that right now, (or maybe after he shuts down SGA next series?), NAW’s value is going to be at its highest. The fame and drama of the playoffs have suddenly made the Wolves “must see TV” and NAW has been one of the stars. NAW (and most of the team) has risen his level in the playoffs.

But next year, people are going to forget. He’ll be coming off the bench, and his offensive numbers will be reduced with fewer opportunities. He’s long, but he’s only 6-4 or 6-5. He doesn’t have great playmaking skills yet to be a starting PG. and he’s a little too small to be preferred at SF.

MLE money doesn’t go to key starters. It goes to 5th starters and 6th men, and NAW can certainly fill that role for several teams next year. But he’ll have to get better to join the $20 mil club.

[Klomp]

I don't see any way that NAW is only a MLE guy on his next contract.

I agree, I think if NAW reaches free agency, some team will offer him a few mil more than the MLE to shut out other suitors.

But I don’t see him getting to $20. Younggunsmn put it in one of his informational posts, but my take is that right now, (or maybe after he shuts down SGA next series?), NAW’s value is going to be at its highest. The fame and drama of the playoffs have suddenly made the Wolves “must see TV” and NAW has been one of the stars. NAW (and most of the team) has risen his level in the playoffs.

But next year, people are going to forget. He’ll be coming off the bench, and his offensive numbers will be reduced with fewer opportunities. He’s long, but he’s only 6-4 or 6-5. He doesn’t have great playmaking skills yet to be a starting PG. and he’s a little too small to be preferred at SF.

MLE money doesn’t go to key starters. It goes to 5th starters and 6th men, and NAW can certainly fill that role for several teams next year. But he’ll have to get better to join the $20 mil club.

While you see it as a year for NAW's value to cool, I see next season as an opportunity for his value to climb even higher. Obviously, cap considerations will be in play, but just schematically, I could see a team see him as a missing piece. I don't know their cap, but he would be perfect alongside Doncic, for example.

[frankenwolf]

The core of the team for the Ant window is Ant, Jaden, Naz, and NAW. We need to find players to fit around that.

Who fits that timeline better than KAT? Trade Rudy or others. Yes, KAT is the (currently) biggest piece of the salary pie, but come on. How in the He() are you going to replace what he does?

[winforlose]

The core of the team for the Ant window is Ant, Jaden, Naz, and NAW. We need to find players to fit around that.

Who fits that timeline better than KAT? Trade Rudy or others. Yes, KAT is the (currently) biggest piece of the salary pie, but come on. How in the He() are you going to replace what he does?

Again, we are talking about the 25-26 season. Karl’s birthday is 11/15/95. Rudy’s birthday is June 26 1992. In 2025 Karl will be 30 and Rudy will 33. Ant was born August 5, 2001. Ant will be 24. Fastforward two years to Ant’s prime. Ant at 26 will be playing with a 32 soon to be 33 Karl (the age at which big men with knee issues tend to decline is 33.) and a 35 year old Rudy. You are asking who can replace what Karl does, prime Naz. You saw the leaps he took year to year, do you think he peaked? Jaden and NAW will both be better offensively and defensively with those extra years and the continuity. You don’t salary dump Karl, you trade him for a blue chip. You don’t salary dump Rudy you try to resign him to a cheaper deal. A core of 26 year old Ant, 27 year old Jaden, 28 year old Naz, and 29 year old NAW sounds pretty good to me. Also you hope that Minott and Miller have developed behind them, you get some nice players back for the Karl deal, and you have some cheap free agents. The new CBA doesn’t let us keep everyone, dumping younger guys to keep older guys seems like a troubling recipe.

[Klomp]

The core of the team for the Ant window is Ant, Jaden, Naz, and NAW. We need to find players to fit around that.

Who fits that timeline better than KAT? Trade Rudy or others.

I will say, for those who were scared about trading Rudy because he's our defensive "identity", I think we saw decent evidence in Game 2 that says the defensive culture he instilled is there whether he's in the arena or not...

[shrink]

You don’t salary dump Karl, you trade him for a blue chip. You don’t salary dump Rudy you try to resign him to a cheaper deal. A core of 26 year old Ant, 27 year old Jaden, 28 year old Naz, and 29 year old NAW sounds pretty good to me. Also you hope that Minott and Miller have developed behind them, you get some nice players back for the Karl deal, and you have some cheap free agents. The new CBA doesn’t let us keep everyone, dumping younger guys to keep older guys seems like a troubling recipe

You know what types of teams trade blue chips for a vet star like Karl?

Contenders. Teams playing for a ring.

Which I hope we will continue to be.

[shrink]

I don't see any way that NAW is only a MLE guy on his next contract.

I agree, I think if NAW reaches free agency, some team will offer him a few mil more than the MLE to shut out other suitors.

But I don’t see him getting to $20. Younggunsmn put it in one of his informational posts, but my take is that right now, (or maybe after he shuts down SGA next series?), NAW’s value is going to be at its highest. The fame and drama of the playoffs have suddenly made the Wolves “must see TV” and NAW has been one of the stars. NAW (and most of the team) has risen his level in the playoffs.

But next year, people are going to forget. He’ll be coming off the bench, and his offensive numbers will be reduced with fewer opportunities. He’s long, but he’s only 6-4 or 6-5. He doesn’t have great playmaking skills yet to be a starting PG. and he’s a little too small to be preferred at SF.

MLE money doesn’t go to key starters. It goes to 5th starters and 6th men, and NAW can certainly fill that role for several teams next year. But he’ll have to get better to join the $20 mil club.

While you see it as a year for NAW's value to cool, I see next season as an opportunity for his value to climb even higher. Obviously, cap considerations will be in play, but just schematically, I could see a team see him as a missing piece. I don't know their cap, but he would be perfect alongside Doncic, for example.

I hope you’re right, I love him. And I think he can be a starter here if either he, OR Ant, take a giant leap forward in playmaking.

[frankenwolf]

The core of the team for the Ant window is Ant, Jaden, Naz, and NAW. We need to find players to fit around that.

Who fits that timeline better than KAT? Trade Rudy or others. Yes, KAT is the (currently) biggest piece of the salary pie, but come on. How in the He() are you going to replace what he does?

Again, we are talking about the 25-26 season. Karl’s birthday is 11/15/95. Rudy’s birthday is June 26 1992. In 2025 Karl will be 30 and Rudy will 33. Ant was born August 5, 2001. Ant will be 24. Fastforward two years to Ant’s prime. Ant at 26 will be playing with a 32 soon to be 33 Karl (the age at which big men with knee issues tend to decline is 33.) and a 35 year old Rudy. You are asking who can replace what Karl does, prime Naz. You saw the leaps he took year to year, do you think he peaked? Jaden and NAW will both be better offensively and defensively with those extra years and the continuity. You don’t salary dump Karl, you trade him for a blue chip. You don’t salary dump Rudy you try to resign him to a cheaper deal. A core of 26 year old Ant, 27 year old Jaden, 28 year old Naz, and 29 year old NAW sounds pretty good to me. Also you hope that Minott and Miller have developed behind them, you get some nice players back for the Karl deal, and you have some cheap free agents. The new CBA doesn’t let us keep everyone, dumping younger guys to keep older guys seems like a troubling recipe.

This is why I am glad I am not TC. I really don't want to trade any of these guys. I understand it is a business, but KAT has been here through all the BS the past (almost) 10 years. He loves it here and we love him. How do you tell him that you traded him to Orlando for Isaac & Suggs??

[winforlose]

How did gutting the bench to keep the stats work for The Suns and Nuggets? Karl costs the combined salary of Jaden and Naz. Would you really dump Jaden and Naz to keep Karl? Or how about trading prime Ant like Shrink was suggesting above (I don’t think he meant to write it, but it certainly shocked me.)

[shrink]

How did gutting the bench to keep the stats work for The Suns and Nuggets? Karl costs the combined salary of Jaden and Naz. Would you really dump Jaden and Naz to keep Karl? Or how about trading prime Ant like Shrink was suggesting above (I don’t think he meant to write it, but it certainly shocked me.)

FWIW, I wrote “Ant” and meant “NAW” and corrected it within a few seconds. I agree Ant is the last player you trade.