Bucks News, Transactions, Trade Ideas - Bucks deny Pistons to talk to Horst

[emunney]

I'm not even sure we can trade with GS straight up at this point. I think we're both second apron teams which means neither of us can take on more than 100% of outgoing value in a trade. Which means the salaries would have to match to the cent, or a third team would have to facilitate to allow us both to drop salary. Not sure when that restriction starts, think it might have been after the end of this past regular season.

I had thought we had until the 29th or July 1st before we could no longer aggregate salaries cuz that's when the new league year officially starts. For GS, they basically just have to waive CP3's non-guaranteed salary at this point.

I wasn't even thinking about the aggregating salaries part, but that piece definitely started the day after the regular season ended. I was thinking about this part:

Read on Twitter

Based on that it seems like we can't increase salary through trades at all (same with GS). So teams over the first apron functionally can not trade directly with each other anymore. They need a sub-apron co-signer to soak up enough salary such that both apron teams come in at or below their previous level. And that sub-apron team can't be compensated with cash from 2nd apron teams, either.

[Milbucks96]

I like position-less all nba teams. The big guys on 1st team are all way better, and effective defenders than the guards on the second team.

[ShootingtheJ]

I'm not even sure we can trade with GS straight up at this point. I think we're both second apron teams which means neither of us can take on more than 100% of outgoing value in a trade. Which means the salaries would have to match to the cent, or a third team would have to facilitate to allow us both to drop salary. Not sure when that restriction starts, think it might have been after the end of this past regular season.

I had thought we had until the 29th or July 1st before we could no longer aggregate salaries cuz that's when the new league year officially starts. For GS, they basically just have to waive CP3's non-guaranteed salary at this point.

I wasn't even thinking about the aggregating salaries part, but that piece definitely started the day after the regular season ended. I was thinking about this part:

Read on Twitter

Based on that it seems like we can't increase salary through trades at all (same with GS). So teams over the first apron functionally can not trade directly with each other anymore. They need a sub-apron co-signer to soak up enough salary such that both apron teams come in at or below their previous level. And that sub-apron team can't be compensated with cash from 2nd apron teams, either.

Doesn't this reset with the new league year? We'll be below the 2nd apron then, and so will GS? Suns will still be screwed.

[BigO]

I decided to make an appearance when I think I have something to add.

The trade proposals on here have exceeded my expectations. Wow.

I really recommend reading Eric Nehm's article today in The Athletic on the Bucks defense and what it would mean to trade Lopez.

The part I wanted to share has to do with rating players defense. He uses RAPM and does it over a several year period, because one season is not that helpful (I still have doubts about all defensive advanced metrics).

This is what he writes:

"among players with at least 7,500 combined minutes since 2013-14, the top five in defensive RAPM are Rudy Gobert, Alex Caruso, Draymond Green, Joel Embiid and Kawhi Leonard, while the bottom five are Collin Sexton, Trae Young, Cedi Osman, Jamal Crawford and Enes Kanter Freedom.

With that in mind, the Bucks’ preferred starting backcourt of Damian Lillard and Malik Beasley ranked 1,089th and 1,187th respectively of the 1,499 players in the sample. While Grayson Allen, the Bucks’ starting shooting guard in the 2022-23 season, graded out as middle of the road defensively at 795th, Jrue Holiday is 57th in defensive RAPM, an elite mark. In combination, the Bucks’ starting backcourt this season represented a massive drop off in defensive talent from the 2022-23 season and that left the Bucks in a difficult position."

He further writes:

"Lopez can still be an elite rim protector.
Antetokounmpo is still an elite help defender and capable of taking on individual one-on-one assignments when needed.
Middleton is not as strong as a one-on-one defender as he used to be, but still incredibly smart and capable of being an impactful team defender.
Lillard is a below-average defender, but willing to give effort on the defensive end and he will be one of the Bucks’ leaders in minutes played next season.
Their bench has multiple players — Pat Connaughton, Andre Jackson Jr., A.J. Green, Bobby Portis — that have shown an ability to make a positive impact defensively in certain situations, but are not viewed as impact defenders at all times."

I pretty much agree with his analysis. And by the way, in RAPM, Portis is near the middle. Not great but not the sieve narrative so many of you embrace. Trading BP is still an option, because unlike many of you, I think he has a huge trade value. Much, much more than some of the ideas on here.

Adios for now.

[emunney]

I had thought we had until the 29th or July 1st before we could no longer aggregate salaries cuz that's when the new league year officially starts. For GS, they basically just have to waive CP3's non-guaranteed salary at this point.

I wasn't even thinking about the aggregating salaries part, but that piece definitely started the day after the regular season ended. I was thinking about this part:

Read on Twitter

Based on that it seems like we can't increase salary through trades at all (same with GS). So teams over the first apron functionally can not trade directly with each other anymore. They need a sub-apron co-signer to soak up enough salary such that both apron teams come in at or below their previous level. And that sub-apron team can't be compensated with cash from 2nd apron teams, either.

Doesn't this reset with the new league year? We'll be below the 2nd apron then, and so will GS? Suns will still be screwed.

We won't be below the 1st apron, which the 100% rule applies to, but we'd be able to aggregate salaries. I'm not so sure we'll be below the 2nd apron. It'll be close. We're at like 182.9 with 10 guys; second apron estimated at 189.5.

[fansinceforever]

Someones going to lose the Donovon Mitchell sweepstakes and is going to be in prime position to overpay for a scoring wing...

[Baddy Chuck]

I pretty much agree with his analysis. And by the way, in RAPM, Portis is near the middle. Not great but not the sieve narrative so many of you embrace.

Bobby Portis 3 year DRAPM from the elite 20-23 defenses Nehm wrote about has him 569/783, comfortably below average.

[Baddy Chuck]

I have to say, I'm very surprised and proud about the complete lack of Mo Bamba I've seen from this board this offseason. Nary a peep of Bol Bol either.

[raferfenix]

On reflection it seems like Bobby has been on the trade market for the past two deadlines.

Bucks would have otherwise had a very hard time cobbling salaries together for guys we were linked to year before last like FVV, Jerami Grant and Bojan.

That said we obviously valued Bobby way higher than Grant Williams on his own much less Wiggins. And of course we didn’t end up acquiring those other guys either.

[raferfenix]

Also — are we sure Jon Horst is GM’ing for us?

Have we had a sign of life since the Detroit reports and leaks about how he didn’t want to hire Doc?

Possible the team is valuing guys differently depending on what’s going on there.

[-Jragon-]

Someones going to lose the Donovon Mitchell sweepstakes and is going to be in prime position to overpay for a scoring wing...

[emunney]

With the Hawks getting the #1 pick and presumably Sarr being that guy we need to find a way to get Onyeka Okongwu.

Yeah, that's a center who you could replace Brook with. A versatile defender who is a better fit for playoff basketball than Brook. Shot 33% from 3 this year, he continues to extend his range. Starts a 4 year $70 million extension next year.

His volume was barely existent. There’s definitely hope he can add a shot, but as of now I would categorize him as a non-shooter.

He's got a pretty consistent pattern of touch, kind of the early signals of a scorer. Two years in a row in the high 70s from the line, good numbers from the field out to that range. And then, like you said, barely any attempts farther out than that. Kind of a prerequisite fulfilled, but some guys only get that far, or even fall backwards. I wouldn't bet on Bam ever being a good 3pt shooter, for instance.

For the bigger picture, though, while that hints at offensive upside, I think he's already a good player overall and I'd love to add him (or Bam), outside shooting be damned.

[LuessiT]

Yeah, that's a center who you could replace Brook with. A versatile defender who is a better fit for playoff basketball than Brook. Shot 33% from 3 this year, he continues to extend his range. Starts a 4 year $70 million extension next year.

His volume was barely existent. There’s definitely hope he can add a shot, but as of now I would categorize him as a non-shooter.

He's got a pretty consistent pattern of touch, kind of the early signals of a scorer. Two years in a row in the high 70s from the line, good numbers from the field out to that range. And then, like you said, barely any attempts farther out than that. Kind of a prerequisite fulfilled, but some guys only get that far, or even fall backwards. I wouldn't bet on Bam ever being a good 3pt shooter, for instance.

For the bigger picture, though, while that hints at offensive upside, I think he's already a good player overall and I'd love to add him (or Bam), outside shooting be damned.

I have a hard time putting Bam and OO in the same archetype. Yes they have similar body types and excel at similar positions defensively.
But offensively it’s an entirely different picture. Bam‘s combination of ball handling, passing and developing midrange game make him a triple threat at the top of the key even if he cannot shoot 3’s yet. He’s threatening dribble handoffs and thus forcing the big guarding him to step up. If the big steps up too much he can take it to the rim. And his midrange gives him a nice fallback if the big drops too much.
OO on that he other hand is just a play finisher right now. He’s got good guard play in his current team to unlock him, but he’s far away from Bam in that sense.

And the thing that often gets overlooked with bigs is that the replacement level is so high. OO has been on a rookie contract so far, but from next season onwards he’s making significantly more than the MLE. He’s a young player and of course it’s expected he’ll improve, but as of now his play doesn’t warrant his contract (neither does Beef Stews btw). So you’re really banking on improvement. And in OO‘s case, you’re really banking on that 3 becoming real (or unearthing another skill that I cannot fathom yet) for him to become a good investment.

[Baddy Chuck]

And the thing that often gets overlooked with bigs is that the replacement level is so high. OO has been on a rookie contract so far, but from next season onwards he’s making significantly more than the MLE. He’s a young player and of course it’s expected he’ll improve, but as of now his play doesn’t warrant his contract (neither does Beef Stews btw). So you’re really banking on improvement. And in OO‘s case, you’re really banking on that 3 becoming real (or unearthing another skill that I cannot fathom yet) for him to become a good investment.

Personally, I disagree that the replacement level is high. If you're looking to "replace" like 8/8 or whatever, sure, but if you're looking to replace a big who could be reliably called upon in the playoffs to play a 30+ minute a game role you're not doing that with Dwight Powell or some replacement level guy. To me that's what you're banking on with investing in a big, not them finding a 3 or something.

[bdpecore]

Someones going to lose the Donovon Mitchell sweepstakes and is going to be in prime position to overpay for a scoring wing...

Paul George says "hi"

[Ayt]

with OK 2nd round exit I think they would be excellent trade partner.

I don't think they'd have any interest in Brook or Bobby. My guess would be Markkanen.

[bdpecore]

with OK 2nd round exit I think they would be excellent trade partner.

I don't think they'd have any interest in Brook or Bobby. My guess would be Markkanen.

Bobby is the perfect fit for OKC since they need to improve their frontcourt size, rebounding and outside shooting. His contract still leaves Presti cap space to add another piece in free agency.

[fansinceforever]

Someones going to lose the Donovon Mitchell sweepstakes and is going to be in prime position to overpay for a scoring wing...

Paul George says "hi"

Maybe they'd prefer a cheaper one who's percentages don't fall off in the playoffs.

[Ayt]

with OK 2nd round exit I think they would be excellent trade partner.

I don't think they'd have any interest in Brook or Bobby. My guess would be Markkanen.

Bobby is the perfect fit for OKC since they need to improve their frontcourt size, rebounding and outside shooting. His contract still leaves Presti cap space to add another piece in free agency.

Bobby is terrible defensively, and they'd have no interest in posting him up as an offensive option. His three point shot also disappears in the playoffs.

They want bigs who are good basketball players who happen to be tall which is why I think Markkanen is the target. Chet is a phenomenal rim protector, so I don't see them moving him off of a role that has him patrolling the paint defensively. A Horford type would be ideal, but a guy like that isn't easy to find.

[Ron Swanson]

I don't think they'd have any interest in Brook or Bobby. My guess would be Markkanen.

Bobby is the perfect fit for OKC since they need to improve their frontcourt size, rebounding and outside shooting. His contract still leaves Presti cap space to add another piece in free agency.

Bobby is terrible defensively, and they'd have no interest in posting him up as an offensive option. His three point shot also disappears in the playoffs.

They want bigs who are good basketball players who happen to be tall which is why I think Markkanen is the target. Chet is a phenomenal rim protector, so I don't see them moving him off of a role that has him patrolling the paint defensively. A Horford type would be ideal, but a guy like that isn't easy to find.

Well good thing those two guys are, you know, good basketball players.