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**NBA Draft Discussion 2024**

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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#461 » by greg4012 » Wed May 1, 2024 12:25 pm

lastb1ckman wrote:I can handle a center shooting 67% FT, but my PG? That's one of the biggest signals of shooting potential. Only thing left is maybe looking at his volume of 3s taken and difficulty of shot. If he shoots poorly, but they're all off the dribble and or contested then that's different. If his uncontested 3s are good there's still hope.


I believe I read his pull up 3 pt % was putrid but his catch and shoot 3 pt % was around 37%.

Let me see if I can find that
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#462 » by 3ammy3uck3ts » Wed May 1, 2024 12:29 pm

I think the last time the projected 1st or top 3 overall pick in the draft coming out of high school dropped quite a bit after their freshman year it ended up being Maxey, Collier might be the same deal. Dont underestimate the ability to get to the foul line consistently, it can be a literal game changer as we’ve all seen.

Maybe GG Jackson was another but he’s looking like he has tons of potential in Memphis
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#463 » by MettaWorldPanda » Wed May 1, 2024 12:33 pm

RexBoyWonder wrote:
IceColdCubano wrote:Terrence Shannon Jr is my guy, a ready to go now player with size and speed.



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He's going to be a very old rook, almost 24YO. that's my biggest concern. How much better can he get?

You can't deny the scoring talent and physical tools, that's the type of guy we need to target.

His shot looks like a poor man’s Kevin Porter Jr lol. I can see why ICC is all over him. My personal opinion on Shannon Jr is he was able to bully weaker competition as an older prospect. He has no right hand as Greg above pointed out. Made to look a fool in the elite 8 by Uconn prospect Stephon Castle, and also lingering rape allegation that the school dropped but still pending a court judgement. Don’t see the Heat being interested with all the other potential more Heat type prospects.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#464 » by greg4012 » Wed May 1, 2024 12:54 pm

RexBoyWonder wrote:
IceColdCubano wrote:Terrence Shannon Jr is my guy, a ready to go now player with size and speed.



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He's going to be a very old rook, almost 24YO. that's my biggest concern. How much better can he get?

You can't deny the scoring talent and physical tools, that's the type of guy we need to target.


yup same age as Herro. Older than Jaquez. I'm still very intrigued by what he brings to the table. I'm just less confident in projecting improvement in his deficiencies
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#465 » by RexBoyWonder » Wed May 1, 2024 1:43 pm

3ammy3uck3ts wrote:I think the last time the projected 1st or top 3 overall pick in the draft coming out of high school dropped quite a bit after their freshman year it ended up being Maxey, Collier might be the same deal. Dont underestimate the ability to get to the foul line consistently, it can be a literal game changer as we’ve all seen.

Maybe GG Jackson was another but he’s looking like he has tons of potential in Memphis


About GG Jackson - who looked amazing to end the year, and he's a natural scorer at 19 YO playing NBA games,

I just cant, for the life of me, understand or justify WHY THE HELL AREN'T WE BUYING SECOND ROUND PICKS

It's the perfect opportunity to take a chance on a high risk high reward player, that if you hit on - can change your entire trajectory as a team. It's maddening we're not even trying, so many chances to gamble on a kid with potential we like, some of these second rounders from the last couple of years could have been like our 3rd best player...it's mind boggling to me.

Couldn't find a full list of sold picks but here's an example :
Chicago Bulls traded No. 38 pick Jordan Bell to the Golden State Warriors during the height of their dynasty in 2017 for $3.5 million in cash. Four years later, the Philadelphia 76ers sent $2 million in cash to the New Orleans Pelicans to acquire the No. 53 pick.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#466 » by lastb1ckman » Wed May 1, 2024 1:49 pm

RexBoyWonder wrote:
3ammy3uck3ts wrote:I think the last time the projected 1st or top 3 overall pick in the draft coming out of high school dropped quite a bit after their freshman year it ended up being Maxey, Collier might be the same deal. Dont underestimate the ability to get to the foul line consistently, it can be a literal game changer as we’ve all seen.

Maybe GG Jackson was another but he’s looking like he has tons of potential in Memphis


About GG Jackson - who looked amazing to end the year, and he's a natural scorer at 19 YO playing NBA games,

I just cant, for the life of me, understand or justify WHY THE HELL AREN'T WE BUYING SECOND ROUND PICKS

It's the perfect opportunity to take a chance on a high risk high reward player, that if you hit on - can change your entire trajectory as a team. It's maddening we're not even trying, so many chances to gamble on a kid with potential we like, some of these second rounders from the last couple of years could have been like our 3rd best player...it's mind boggling to me.

Couldn't find a full list of sold picks but here's an example :
Chicago Bulls traded No. 38 pick Jordan Bell to the Golden State Warriors during the height of their dynasty in 2017 for $3.5 million in cash. Four years later, the Philadelphia 76ers sent $2 million in cash to the New Orleans Pelicans to acquire the No. 53 pick.


Atleast we have one this season at 43. If they don't use it to get cap relief, I can see the Heat picking up a interesting project there.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#467 » by greg4012 » Wed May 1, 2024 2:17 pm

greg4012 wrote:
lastb1ckman wrote:I can handle a center shooting 67% FT, but my PG? That's one of the biggest signals of shooting potential. Only thing left is maybe looking at his volume of 3s taken and difficulty of shot. If he shoots poorly, but they're all off the dribble and or contested then that's different. If his uncontested 3s are good there's still hope.


I believe I read his pull up 3 pt % was putrid but his catch and shoot 3 pt % was around 37%.

Let me see if I can find that


Here's what I was referencing: https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/isaiah-collier-is-the-trojans-horse

Collier’s actual swing skill is his shooting, even more than his turnovers. He came to USC with a reputation as a mediocre shooter, and he’s done nothing to shake that perception. Instead, while there may be a few silver linings, his jumper has stagnated in its unfinished form.

Per Synergy, across his 107 jump shots, Collier is only shooting 33.6%, which gets grizzlier when you dig into the details. For one, Collier is just a 67.8% free-throw shooter on over a hundred attempts this season, which confirms his warts as a shooter. That doesn’t bode well for his touch as a shooter either, which is a cause for concern.

Two elements have rendered Collier an ineffective shooter. First is his balance. Collier’s handle and natural burst let him get to his spots whether he has the ball in his hands or gets into a spot-up look, but he doesn’t always get his feet under him with his attempts. Many of his pull-up shots are rushed or harried, as evidenced by his 36.7% clip on pull-up twos and 27.3% clip on pull-up threes.


The second issue for Collier’s jumper is the depth of his threes. I noticed more and more as I watched Collier feel confident pulling up and firing from way beyond the NBA range. While that’s crucial for sniper guards to further disrupt the court’s geometry, Collier should focus on hitting closer jumpers before stretching his range.

While the depth of his shots could improve, his catch-and-shoot attempts are the rosiest part of his long-range outlook. Collier has attempted 44 catch-and-shoot threes this season and hit 36.4% of them, primarily due to the rhythm at which he can take them. Instead of dipping or rushing his shot, Collier’s spot-up attempts are much cleaner and serve as the blueprint for what he should strive for with all his jumpers.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#468 » by lastb1ckman » Wed May 1, 2024 2:32 pm

greg4012 wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
lastb1ckman wrote:I can handle a center shooting 67% FT, but my PG? That's one of the biggest signals of shooting potential. Only thing left is maybe looking at his volume of 3s taken and difficulty of shot. If he shoots poorly, but they're all off the dribble and or contested then that's different. If his uncontested 3s are good there's still hope.


I believe I read his pull up 3 pt % was putrid but his catch and shoot 3 pt % was around 37%.

Let me see if I can find that


Here's what I was referencing: https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/isaiah-collier-is-the-trojans-horse

Collier’s actual swing skill is his shooting, even more than his turnovers. He came to USC with a reputation as a mediocre shooter, and he’s done nothing to shake that perception. Instead, while there may be a few silver linings, his jumper has stagnated in its unfinished form.

Per Synergy, across his 107 jump shots, Collier is only shooting 33.6%, which gets grizzlier when you dig into the details. For one, Collier is just a 67.8% free-throw shooter on over a hundred attempts this season, which confirms his warts as a shooter. That doesn’t bode well for his touch as a shooter either, which is a cause for concern.

Two elements have rendered Collier an ineffective shooter. First is his balance. Collier’s handle and natural burst let him get to his spots whether he has the ball in his hands or gets into a spot-up look, but he doesn’t always get his feet under him with his attempts. Many of his pull-up shots are rushed or harried, as evidenced by his 36.7% clip on pull-up twos and 27.3% clip on pull-up threes.


The second issue for Collier’s jumper is the depth of his threes. I noticed more and more as I watched Collier feel confident pulling up and firing from way beyond the NBA range. While that’s crucial for sniper guards to further disrupt the court’s geometry, Collier should focus on hitting closer jumpers before stretching his range.

While the depth of his shots could improve, his catch-and-shoot attempts are the rosiest part of his long-range outlook. Collier has attempted 44 catch-and-shoot threes this season and hit 36.4% of them, primarily due to the rhythm at which he can take them. Instead of dipping or rushing his shot, Collier’s spot-up attempts are much cleaner and serve as the blueprint for what he should strive for with all his jumpers.


Welp, he atleast has his catch and shoot threes. But this pretty much guarantees if the Heat picked him up, he ain't seeing the floor for a LOOOOONG while. I understand the potential though.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#469 » by greg4012 » Wed May 1, 2024 2:47 pm

lastb1ckman wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
I believe I read his pull up 3 pt % was putrid but his catch and shoot 3 pt % was around 37%.

Let me see if I can find that


Here's what I was referencing: https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/isaiah-collier-is-the-trojans-horse

Collier’s actual swing skill is his shooting, even more than his turnovers. He came to USC with a reputation as a mediocre shooter, and he’s done nothing to shake that perception. Instead, while there may be a few silver linings, his jumper has stagnated in its unfinished form.

Per Synergy, across his 107 jump shots, Collier is only shooting 33.6%, which gets grizzlier when you dig into the details. For one, Collier is just a 67.8% free-throw shooter on over a hundred attempts this season, which confirms his warts as a shooter. That doesn’t bode well for his touch as a shooter either, which is a cause for concern.

Two elements have rendered Collier an ineffective shooter. First is his balance. Collier’s handle and natural burst let him get to his spots whether he has the ball in his hands or gets into a spot-up look, but he doesn’t always get his feet under him with his attempts. Many of his pull-up shots are rushed or harried, as evidenced by his 36.7% clip on pull-up twos and 27.3% clip on pull-up threes.


The second issue for Collier’s jumper is the depth of his threes. I noticed more and more as I watched Collier feel confident pulling up and firing from way beyond the NBA range. While that’s crucial for sniper guards to further disrupt the court’s geometry, Collier should focus on hitting closer jumpers before stretching his range.

While the depth of his shots could improve, his catch-and-shoot attempts are the rosiest part of his long-range outlook. Collier has attempted 44 catch-and-shoot threes this season and hit 36.4% of them, primarily due to the rhythm at which he can take them. Instead of dipping or rushing his shot, Collier’s spot-up attempts are much cleaner and serve as the blueprint for what he should strive for with all his jumpers.


Welp, he atleast has his catch and shoot threes. But this pretty much guarantees if the Heat picked him up, he ain't seeing the floor for a LOOOOONG while. I understand the potential though.


From a 3 ball perspective, he’s in a similar boat as Jaquez. Obviously Jaquez is a more refined player up to the task for working the different roles Spo throws at him.

Truly have no clue if Collier will ever become decent from 3
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#470 » by IceColdCubano » Wed May 1, 2024 2:57 pm

greg4012 wrote:
lastb1ckman wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
Here's what I was referencing: https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/isaiah-collier-is-the-trojans-horse





Welp, he atleast has his catch and shoot threes. But this pretty much guarantees if the Heat picked him up, he ain't seeing the floor for a LOOOOONG while. I understand the potential though.


From a 3 ball perspective, he’s in a similar boat as Jaquez. Obviously Jaquez is a more refined player up to the task for working the different roles Spo throws at him.

Truly have no clue if Collier will ever become decent from 3


A 6'-3" version of Jaquez with an even more egregious jumper is not what I want on this team. At that size you need to be top 3 in the draft in shooting. Collier is a late first rounder on a bad draft, any other year hed be a 2nd rounder.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#471 » by twix2500 » Wed May 1, 2024 3:00 pm

The difference when evaulating Collier tape vs Castle tape.


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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#472 » by MettaWorldPanda » Wed May 1, 2024 3:01 pm

greg4012 wrote:
lastb1ckman wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
Here's what I was referencing: https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/isaiah-collier-is-the-trojans-horse





Welp, he atleast has his catch and shoot threes. But this pretty much guarantees if the Heat picked him up, he ain't seeing the floor for a LOOOOONG while. I understand the potential though.


From a 3 ball perspective, he’s in a similar boat as Jaquez. Obviously Jaquez is a more refined player up to the task for working the different roles Spo throws at him.

Truly have no clue if Collier will ever become decent from 3

I can't stand guards that can't shoot FT's at an above average clip. I remember the whole Brickslow experience from the FT and it was not pretty whatsoever. I'd rather take my chances with someone like Tyler Kolek.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#473 » by IceColdCubano » Wed May 1, 2024 3:04 pm

MettaWorldPanda wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
lastb1ckman wrote:
Welp, he atleast has his catch and shoot threes. But this pretty much guarantees if the Heat picked him up, he ain't seeing the floor for a LOOOOONG while. I understand the potential though.


From a 3 ball perspective, he’s in a similar boat as Jaquez. Obviously Jaquez is a more refined player up to the task for working the different roles Spo throws at him.

Truly have no clue if Collier will ever become decent from 3

I can't stand guards that can't shoot FT's at an above average clip. I remember the whole Brickslow experience from the FT and it was not pretty whatsoever. I'd rather take my chances with someone like Tyler Kolek.

The Idea that a player whos largest impact is the fact he gets to the line often because of his burst of speed and change of direction ability to use either hand, but shoots FT's at below 70% rate is degrading that ability to get to the line a bit. Its like an opposite Herro, who would hit 90% or more from the line but barely gets there.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#474 » by greg4012 » Wed May 1, 2024 3:07 pm

MettaWorldPanda wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
lastb1ckman wrote:
Welp, he atleast has his catch and shoot threes. But this pretty much guarantees if the Heat picked him up, he ain't seeing the floor for a LOOOOONG while. I understand the potential though.


From a 3 ball perspective, he’s in a similar boat as Jaquez. Obviously Jaquez is a more refined player up to the task for working the different roles Spo throws at him.

Truly have no clue if Collier will ever become decent from 3

I can't stand guards that can't shoot FT's at an above average clip. I remember the whole Brickslow experience from the FT and it was not pretty whatsoever. I'd rather take my chances with someone like Tyler Kolek.


Def a red flag that can't be ignored. There are prospects who have overcome it, but it's not the norm
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#475 » by greg4012 » Wed May 1, 2024 3:09 pm

IceColdCubano wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
lastb1ckman wrote:
Welp, he atleast has his catch and shoot threes. But this pretty much guarantees if the Heat picked him up, he ain't seeing the floor for a LOOOOONG while. I understand the potential though.


From a 3 ball perspective, he’s in a similar boat as Jaquez. Obviously Jaquez is a more refined player up to the task for working the different roles Spo throws at him.

Truly have no clue if Collier will ever become decent from 3


A 6'-3" version of Jaquez with an even more egregious jumper is not what I want on this team. At that size you need to be top 3 in the draft in shooting. Collier is a late first rounder on a bad draft, any other year hed be a 2nd rounder.


He's not a version of Jaquez. He just has a similar weakness--as a much younger prospect.

I'm in no position to speak as definitively as you are speaking. Not sure you are either lol
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#476 » by lastb1ckman » Wed May 1, 2024 3:44 pm

IceColdCubano wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
lastb1ckman wrote:
Welp, he atleast has his catch and shoot threes. But this pretty much guarantees if the Heat picked him up, he ain't seeing the floor for a LOOOOONG while. I understand the potential though.


From a 3 ball perspective, he’s in a similar boat as Jaquez. Obviously Jaquez is a more refined player up to the task for working the different roles Spo throws at him.

Truly have no clue if Collier will ever become decent from 3


A 6'-3" version of Jaquez with an even more egregious jumper is not what I want on this team. At that size you need to be top 3 in the draft in shooting. Collier is a late first rounder on a bad draft, any other year hed be a 2nd rounder.


A 2nd rounder? What is a 1st rounder to you in normal draft?
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#477 » by DayofMourning » Wed May 1, 2024 4:06 pm

lastb1ckman wrote:
IceColdCubano wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
From a 3 ball perspective, he’s in a similar boat as Jaquez. Obviously Jaquez is a more refined player up to the task for working the different roles Spo throws at him.

Truly have no clue if Collier will ever become decent from 3


A 6'-3" version of Jaquez with an even more egregious jumper is not what I want on this team. At that size you need to be top 3 in the draft in shooting. Collier is a late first rounder on a bad draft, any other year hed be a 2nd rounder.


A 2nd rounder? What is a 1st rounder to you in normal draft?


I get what hes saying though. Collier was not an efficient player at all this year. Hes proven to have one skill. His mock draft position is due to a fictional "ceiling" he has. Thats not a near lottery pick.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#478 » by IceColdCubano » Wed May 1, 2024 4:13 pm

DayofMourning wrote:
lastb1ckman wrote:
IceColdCubano wrote:
A 6'-3" version of Jaquez with an even more egregious jumper is not what I want on this team. At that size you need to be top 3 in the draft in shooting. Collier is a late first rounder on a bad draft, any other year hed be a 2nd rounder.


A 2nd rounder? What is a 1st rounder to you in normal draft?


I get what hes saying though. Collier was not an efficient player at all this year. Hes proven to have one skill. His mock draft position is due to a fictional "ceiling" he has. Thats not a near lottery pick.

Just take last year as an example, when we picked up Jaquez at 18 would Collier have gone before or after Jaquez and would he have snuck into the end of the first round or been an early 2nd round pick vs the players last years available in the first round.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#479 » by twix2500 » Wed May 1, 2024 4:48 pm

IceColdCubano wrote:
DayofMourning wrote:
lastb1ckman wrote:
A 2nd rounder? What is a 1st rounder to you in normal draft?


I get what hes saying though. Collier was not an efficient player at all this year. Hes proven to have one skill. His mock draft position is due to a fictional "ceiling" he has. Thats not a near lottery pick.

Just take last year as an example, when we picked up Jaquez at 18 would Collier have gone before or after Jaquez and would he have snuck into the end of the first round or been an early 2nd round pick vs the players last years available in the first round.



Collier was consider the number one prospect when the season started.

DeAron Fox freshmen season
6'4 180 lbs
16.7 pts, 4 rbs, 4.6 ast, 24 3p%, 73 Ft%, 5.9 Fta, 1.5 stls, 49.8 eFG%

Isaiah Collier freshmen season
6'4 210 lbs
16.3 pts, 2.9 rbs, 4.3 ast, 33 3p%, 67 Ft%, 5.8 Fta, 1.5 stls, 53.3 eFG%

Tyrese Maxey freshmen season
6'3 198 lbs
14.0 pts, 4.3 rbs, 3.2 ast, 29.2 3p%, 83.3 Ft%, 3.9 fta, 0.9 stls, 47.4 eFG%

----------------------

Stephon Castle freshman season
6'6 215 lbs
11.1 pts, 4.7 rbs, 2.9 ast, 26.7 3p%, 75.5 Ft%, 3.2 Fta, 0.8 stls, 50.7 eFG%

Justise Winslow freshman season
6'6 225 lbs
12.6 pts, 6.5 rbs, 2.1 ast, 41.8 3p%, 64.1 Ft%, 4.0 Fta, 1.3 stls, 55.1 eFG%
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2024** 

Post#480 » by MettaWorldPanda » Wed May 1, 2024 5:03 pm

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