What a difference one spot in the draft makes

[EvanZ]

bUtEVeniFaNtWAsAvAilAbLEwEhADjOrDAnpOOle

[tal57]

As much as MN had a chance to select Curry twice and craped the bed, the Warriors didn't have a choice at selecting Edwards. Maybe they wouldn't have selected him even if they did. If I remember correctly, they weren't kin on him and him on the Warriors after his initial interview with the team. Regardless, it wasn't non selection of Edwards that really doomed the team but the selection of Wiseman. It could have been greatly remedied with the selection of Haliburton. Even better, dropping off few spots and selecting Haliburton at 6 or 7 while collecting some assets. Or the speculative rumor of trade with Chicago if it was true. That is what really had set the Warriors years back because they had scarce chances at lottery for a long while.

[billinder33]

Yup and I dont think it can be overstated how good that guy is right now. He was 100% the driving force as to why I believed MIN would beat Denver. He's a legit #1, the best SG in the game, and the Wolves have a lot of defensive players behind him/Towns/Naz

Wolves also profile to be very good against Boston, FWIW, if that's relevant later

At what point did you feel that way about edwards? It was a bit of a 'taster's choice' for that draft class until recently. At first, lamelo was all the rage, then edwards, then haliburton took the lead (early this season) and now Ant is the clear gem of the class and possibly MVP favorite next season. When did you and the tracking data recognize him as a player at that elite level?

"let me go back and scrub my old posts before I get back to you on this one"

[Onus]

As much as MN had a chance to select Curry twice and craped the bed, the Warriors didn't have a choice at selecting Edwards. Maybe they wouldn't have selected him even if they did. If I remember correctly, they weren't kin on him and him on the Warriors after his initial interview with the team. Regardless, it wasn't non selection of Edwards that really doomed the team but the selection of Wiseman. It could have been greatly remedied with the selection of Haliburton. Even better, dropping off few spots and selecting Haliburton at 6 or 7 while collecting some assets. Or the speculative rumor of trade with Chicago if it was true. That is what really had set the Warriors years back because they had scarce chances at lottery for a long while.

This draft in particular wasn't the draft that doomed the Warriors. It was the 2021 draft.

Lamelo is always hurt. Haliburton is a good pg, but his defense is atrocious.

[CDM_Stats]

Yup and I dont think it can be overstated how good that guy is right now. He was 100% the driving force as to why I believed MIN would beat Denver. He's a legit #1, the best SG in the game, and the Wolves have a lot of defensive players behind him/Towns/Naz

Wolves also profile to be very good against Boston, FWIW, if that's relevant later

At what point did you feel that way about edwards? It was a bit of a 'taster's choice' for that draft class until recently. At first, lamelo was all the rage, then edwards, then haliburton took the lead (early this season) and now Ant is the clear gem of the class and possibly MVP favorite next season. When did you and the tracking data recognize him as a player at that elite level?

"let me go back and scrub my old posts before I get back to you on this one"

lol ok sure

I dont know when he moved up.. tracking is analysis, not just metrics, so requires legwork on top of just the numbers. I just know that he's that good, right now. And why I changed from not believing in Minnesota early in the year. I didnt have much of an opinion on anyone in the 2020 draft other than passing opinions on what I read.. like most, I heard all the negative things about his attitude and that the Warriors were locked into Wiseman, and I'm sure I was fine with that back then

What I have access to doesnt extend to the college ranks.. and I do not like, nor do I believe, in evaluating every prospect. I think fit is the most important aspect if your team is a credible contender (not positional fit, mind you, but systemic fit), and the Warriors have been credible for a decade, so didnt really do much HW on the guy. I will say that early on in his career, Anthony Edwards was extremely unimpressive though. Looked passive, especially defensively. Would often forget that he was a #1 pick, which is a bad sign for a #1 pick. His issue was always motor though, the talent was clearly there. He had 3 slow incline seasons and then seemed to blow up in year 4.. thats textbook on how to make a star

[EvanZ]

As much as MN had a chance to select Curry twice and craped the bed, the Warriors didn't have a choice at selecting Edwards. Maybe they wouldn't have selected him even if they did. If I remember correctly, they weren't kin on him and him on the Warriors after his initial interview with the team. Regardless, it wasn't non selection of Edwards that really doomed the team but the selection of Wiseman. It could have been greatly remedied with the selection of Haliburton. Even better, dropping off few spots and selecting Haliburton at 6 or 7 while collecting some assets. Or the speculative rumor of trade with Chicago if it was true. That is what really had set the Warriors years back because they had scarce chances at lottery for a long while.

This draft in particular wasn't the draft that doomed the Warriors. It was the 2021 draft.

Lamelo is always hurt. Haliburton is a good pg, but his defense is atrocious.

I don't have a problem with taking Kuminga or Moody or both in that Draft. What I have a problem with is that they drafted anyone at all and chased two timelines at that point. They should have traded the picks for an impact #2 player at that time. That was the mistake, at least, with hindsight. You can't really fault them for simply not taking "the best player they didn't take". That's too easy.

[CDM_Stats]

Yup and I dont think it can be overstated how good that guy is right now. He was 100% the driving force as to why I believed MIN would beat Denver. He's a legit #1, the best SG in the game, and the Wolves have a lot of defensive players behind him/Towns/Naz

Wolves also profile to be very good against Boston, FWIW, if that's relevant later

We should be cautious to go to far after a Game 1. As Warriors fans especially we know Game 1's are just 1 game.

I was sold on the idea previous to MIN and DEN matching up, but yeah he's got a lot to prove on the big stage still. Has a ton of weight on his shoulders though.. that team is built to defend. If he falters, they dont have a plan B

[Onus]

As much as MN had a chance to select Curry twice and craped the bed, the Warriors didn't have a choice at selecting Edwards. Maybe they wouldn't have selected him even if they did. If I remember correctly, they weren't kin on him and him on the Warriors after his initial interview with the team. Regardless, it wasn't non selection of Edwards that really doomed the team but the selection of Wiseman. It could have been greatly remedied with the selection of Haliburton. Even better, dropping off few spots and selecting Haliburton at 6 or 7 while collecting some assets. Or the speculative rumor of trade with Chicago if it was true. That is what really had set the Warriors years back because they had scarce chances at lottery for a long while.

This draft in particular wasn't the draft that doomed the Warriors. It was the 2021 draft.

Lamelo is always hurt. Haliburton is a good pg, but his defense is atrocious.

I don't have a problem with taking Kuminga or Moody or both in that Draft. What I have a problem with is that they drafted anyone at all and chased two timelines at that point. They should have traded the picks for an impact #2 player at that time. That was the mistake, at least, with hindsight. You can't really fault them for simply not taking "the best player they didn't take". That's too easy.

Yes trading those picks was better since we haven't really gotten anything from those picks. Two timelines has been horrible especially missing on all the lottery picks.

I think it was you but the Warriors did replace a lot of the scouting department this past year. So at least moving forward it seems like we may have found a solution to drafting.

[vvoland]

At what point did you feel that way about edwards? It was a bit of a 'taster's choice' for that draft class until recently. At first, lamelo was all the rage, then edwards, then haliburton took the lead (early this season) and now Ant is the clear gem of the class and possibly MVP favorite next season. When did you and the tracking data recognize him as a player at that elite level?

"let me go back and scrub my old posts before I get back to you on this one"

lol ok sure

I dont know when he moved up.. tracking is analysis, not just metrics, so requires legwork on top of just the numbers. I just know that he's that good, right now. And why I changed from not believing in Minnesota early in the year. I didnt have much of an opinion on anyone in the 2020 draft other than passing opinions on what I read.. like most, I heard all the negative things about his attitude and that the Warriors were locked into Wiseman, and I'm sure I was fine with that back then

What I have access to doesnt extend to the college ranks.. and I do not like, nor do I believe, in evaluating every prospect. I think fit is the most important aspect if your team is a credible contender, and the Warriors have been credible for a decade, so didnt really do much HW on the guy. I will say that early on in his career, Anthony Edwards was extremely unimpressive though. Looked passive, especially defensively. Would often forget that he was a #1 pick, which is a bad sign for a #1 pick.

It was a genuine question, not trying to gaslight anyone over this. It was more about how quickly attitudes can change and a player can make the leap in a blink of an eye. MY question was when did you realize he's not only the best player in that draft but quite probably, the best player in the draft prior (zion/ja) or the one after (cade/mobley/etc). He's on the short list for MVP next year and just 12 months ago (maybe even 6), I don't know anyone that would have guessed that. BTW, I agree with you that his underlying numbers weren't that impressive early on. Neither was his personality. It seems to have really clicked for him last summer, at the world cup. I'm guessing that being on the bench behind players he did not think were better than him (he was right, btw) was a bit of a wake up call.

[CDM_Stats]

"let me go back and scrub my old posts before I get back to you on this one"

lol ok sure

I dont know when he moved up.. tracking is analysis, not just metrics, so requires legwork on top of just the numbers. I just know that he's that good, right now. And why I changed from not believing in Minnesota early in the year. I didnt have much of an opinion on anyone in the 2020 draft other than passing opinions on what I read.. like most, I heard all the negative things about his attitude and that the Warriors were locked into Wiseman, and I'm sure I was fine with that back then

What I have access to doesnt extend to the college ranks.. and I do not like, nor do I believe, in evaluating every prospect. I think fit is the most important aspect if your team is a credible contender, and the Warriors have been credible for a decade, so didnt really do much HW on the guy. I will say that early on in his career, Anthony Edwards was extremely unimpressive though. Looked passive, especially defensively. Would often forget that he was a #1 pick, which is a bad sign for a #1 pick.

It was a genuine question, not trying to gaslight anyone over this. It was more about how quickly attitudes can change and a player can make the leap in a blink of an eye. MY question was when did you realize he's not only the best player in that draft but quite probably, the best player in the draft prior (zion/ja) or the one after (cade/mobley/etc). He's on the short list for MVP next year and just 12 months ago (maybe even 6), I don't know anyone that would have guessed that. BTW, I agree with you that his underlying numbers weren't that impressive early on. Neither was his personality. It seems to have really clicked for him last summer, at the world cup. I'm guessing that being on the bench behind players he did not think were better than him (he was right, btw) was a bit of a wake up call.

lol I know it wasnt you

Hard to pinpoint exactly when its happened. Also his main stats, the public ones that everyone can find easily (basketball-reference, for example) don't look especially impressive. A lot of that is because a #1 scoring SG that doesnt rack up counting stats get downplayed by metrics. 25-5-5 is excellent for a SG, even if those assist numbers dipped into 2-3. But because his efficiency isnt elite (.570-.580 TS), he wasnt highly regarded

But in the context of him being the Wolves' offensive engine, on a team where they deploy several defense-first or defense-only guys, with very high usage, very low turnover rates, and very high AST% for a SG.. its way, way more impressive. And then there's defensive metrics, which are very inaccurate w/o context. And he's doing well there too. Klay was underrated as a 2 guard for a while for the same reason.. a lot of those PM metrics that incorporate boxscores do not like wings who aren't playmakers

At this point he's at the top of the draft with Hali right behind him. I'd put Maxey over LaMelo if I'm being 100% honest, but its one of those splitting hairs thing. I wouldnt argue if people had Lamelo over Maxey. After those 4 though, man the dropoff is steep. Vassell? Bane? The depth in that draft is gross

[vvoland]

lol ok sure

I dont know when he moved up.. tracking is analysis, not just metrics, so requires legwork on top of just the numbers. I just know that he's that good, right now. And why I changed from not believing in Minnesota early in the year. I didnt have much of an opinion on anyone in the 2020 draft other than passing opinions on what I read.. like most, I heard all the negative things about his attitude and that the Warriors were locked into Wiseman, and I'm sure I was fine with that back then

What I have access to doesnt extend to the college ranks.. and I do not like, nor do I believe, in evaluating every prospect. I think fit is the most important aspect if your team is a credible contender, and the Warriors have been credible for a decade, so didnt really do much HW on the guy. I will say that early on in his career, Anthony Edwards was extremely unimpressive though. Looked passive, especially defensively. Would often forget that he was a #1 pick, which is a bad sign for a #1 pick.

It was a genuine question, not trying to gaslight anyone over this. It was more about how quickly attitudes can change and a player can make the leap in a blink of an eye. MY question was when did you realize he's not only the best player in that draft but quite probably, the best player in the draft prior (zion/ja) or the one after (cade/mobley/etc). He's on the short list for MVP next year and just 12 months ago (maybe even 6), I don't know anyone that would have guessed that. BTW, I agree with you that his underlying numbers weren't that impressive early on. Neither was his personality. It seems to have really clicked for him last summer, at the world cup. I'm guessing that being on the bench behind players he did not think were better than him (he was right, btw) was a bit of a wake up call.

lol I know it wasnt you

Hard to pinpoint exactly when its happened. Also his main stats, the public ones that everyone can find easily (basketball-reference, for example) don't look especially impressive. A lot of that is because a #1 scoring SG that doesnt rack up counting stats get downplayed by metrics. 25-5-5 is excellent for a SG, even if those assist numbers dipped into 2-3. But because his efficiency isnt elite (.570-.580 TS), he wasnt highly regarded

But in the context of him being the Wolves' offensive engine, on a team where they deploy several defense-first or defense-only guys, with very high usage, very low turnover rates, and very high AST% for a SG.. its way, way more impressive. And then there's defensive metrics, which are very inaccurate w/o context. And he's doing well there too. Klay was underrated as a 2 guard for a while for the same reason.. a lot of those PM metrics that incorporate boxscores do not like wings who aren't playmakers

At this point he's at the top of the draft with Hali right behind him. I'd put Maxey over LaMelo if I'm being 100% honest, but its one of those splitting hairs thing. I wouldnt argue if people had Lamelo over Maxey. After those 4 though, man the dropoff is steep. Vassell? Bane? The depth in that draft is gross

At the start of the season, if you had him on a list with the top picks of the draft prior and post, I don't think he goes top 3, maybe not even top 5. Ja, Zion, Garland, Lamelo, Hali, Franz, Mobley, Cade, Sengun. It's one of the reasons why I am still keeping the candle lit for JK and not sold on Mobley or Franz.

It's also the reason why I bailed on Wiseman. Once Lamelo and Ant looked like legit, star level players, I figured the chances of Wiseman being that good were essentially 0. My scientific approach was "I can't think of any draft where the top 3 players were all stars and none busted so if it ain't lamelo or ant..."

[CDM_Stats]

It was a genuine question, not trying to gaslight anyone over this. It was more about how quickly attitudes can change and a player can make the leap in a blink of an eye. MY question was when did you realize he's not only the best player in that draft but quite probably, the best player in the draft prior (zion/ja) or the one after (cade/mobley/etc). He's on the short list for MVP next year and just 12 months ago (maybe even 6), I don't know anyone that would have guessed that. BTW, I agree with you that his underlying numbers weren't that impressive early on. Neither was his personality. It seems to have really clicked for him last summer, at the world cup. I'm guessing that being on the bench behind players he did not think were better than him (he was right, btw) was a bit of a wake up call.

lol I know it wasnt you

Hard to pinpoint exactly when its happened. Also his main stats, the public ones that everyone can find easily (basketball-reference, for example) don't look especially impressive. A lot of that is because a #1 scoring SG that doesnt rack up counting stats get downplayed by metrics. 25-5-5 is excellent for a SG, even if those assist numbers dipped into 2-3. But because his efficiency isnt elite (.570-.580 TS), he wasnt highly regarded

But in the context of him being the Wolves' offensive engine, on a team where they deploy several defense-first or defense-only guys, with very high usage, very low turnover rates, and very high AST% for a SG.. its way, way more impressive. And then there's defensive metrics, which are very inaccurate w/o context. And he's doing well there too. Klay was underrated as a 2 guard for a while for the same reason.. a lot of those PM metrics that incorporate boxscores do not like wings who aren't playmakers

At this point he's at the top of the draft with Hali right behind him. I'd put Maxey over LaMelo if I'm being 100% honest, but its one of those splitting hairs thing. I wouldnt argue if people had Lamelo over Maxey. After those 4 though, man the dropoff is steep. Vassell? Bane? The depth in that draft is gross

At the start of the season, if you had him on a list with the top picks of the draft prior and post, I don't think he goes top 3, maybe not even top 5. Ja, Zion, Garland, Lamelo, Hali, Franz, Mobley, Cade, Sengun. It's one of the reasons why I am still keeping the candle lit for JK and not sold on Mobley or Franz.

It's also the reason why I bailed on Wiseman. Once Lamelo and Ant looked like legit, star level players, I figured the chances of Wiseman being that good were essentially 0. My scientific approach was "I can't think of any draft where the top 3 players were all stars and none busted so if it ain't lamelo or ant..."

Maybe? Its a subjective list so not sure. Different teams will have different needs so fans will have different opinions. I dunno, I always hate the idea of re-drafts as anything more than for **** and giggles. It takes all the science and analysis out of it, and thats the interesting part to me. Filtering out the noise and getting to the most impactful and useful data.. and that varies team to team. Like the analysis I've done for past few years? Useful in regards to the Warriors and their system. Probably not useful for a team thats looking for an identity. I certainly wouldnt have been pounding the table for Moses Moody in 2021 if the team was still looking for a #1 scorer

[vvoland]

lol I know it wasnt you

Hard to pinpoint exactly when its happened. Also his main stats, the public ones that everyone can find easily (basketball-reference, for example) don't look especially impressive. A lot of that is because a #1 scoring SG that doesnt rack up counting stats get downplayed by metrics. 25-5-5 is excellent for a SG, even if those assist numbers dipped into 2-3. But because his efficiency isnt elite (.570-.580 TS), he wasnt highly regarded

But in the context of him being the Wolves' offensive engine, on a team where they deploy several defense-first or defense-only guys, with very high usage, very low turnover rates, and very high AST% for a SG.. its way, way more impressive. And then there's defensive metrics, which are very inaccurate w/o context. And he's doing well there too. Klay was underrated as a 2 guard for a while for the same reason.. a lot of those PM metrics that incorporate boxscores do not like wings who aren't playmakers

At this point he's at the top of the draft with Hali right behind him. I'd put Maxey over LaMelo if I'm being 100% honest, but its one of those splitting hairs thing. I wouldnt argue if people had Lamelo over Maxey. After those 4 though, man the dropoff is steep. Vassell? Bane? The depth in that draft is gross

At the start of the season, if you had him on a list with the top picks of the draft prior and post, I don't think he goes top 3, maybe not even top 5. Ja, Zion, Garland, Lamelo, Hali, Franz, Mobley, Cade, Sengun. It's one of the reasons why I am still keeping the candle lit for JK and not sold on Mobley or Franz.

It's also the reason why I bailed on Wiseman. Once Lamelo and Ant looked like legit, star level players, I figured the chances of Wiseman being that good were essentially 0. My scientific approach was "I can't think of any draft where the top 3 players were all stars and none busted so if it ain't lamelo or ant..."

Maybe? Its a subjective list so not sure. Different teams will have different needs so fans will have different opinions. I dunno, I always hate the idea of re-drafts as anything more than for **** and giggles. It takes all the science and analysis out of it, and thats the interesting part to me. Filtering out the noise and getting to the most impactful and useful data.. and that varies team to team. Like the analysis I've done for past few years? Useful in regards to the Warriors and their system. Probably not useful for a team thats looking for an identity. I certainly wouldnt have been pounding the table for Moses Moody in 2021 if the team was still looking for a #1 scorer

Some, the best, players transcend team needs and all that jazz. We could convincingly make arguments that maybe Lamelo or Hali, as big point guards, would be a better fit here than Ant because of the style of play, team needs, etc. Ant is now at the point that anyone making those arguments is laughed out of the room.

My point was that in something like 5 months, Ant went from a possible top 3 player on the list I put together above to being no 1 and in a class of his own. Which is why I hesitate to anoint or bury anyone before their 2nd contract. Even then, it may be too early.

[Onus]

It was a genuine question, not trying to gaslight anyone over this. It was more about how quickly attitudes can change and a player can make the leap in a blink of an eye. MY question was when did you realize he's not only the best player in that draft but quite probably, the best player in the draft prior (zion/ja) or the one after (cade/mobley/etc). He's on the short list for MVP next year and just 12 months ago (maybe even 6), I don't know anyone that would have guessed that. BTW, I agree with you that his underlying numbers weren't that impressive early on. Neither was his personality. It seems to have really clicked for him last summer, at the world cup. I'm guessing that being on the bench behind players he did not think were better than him (he was right, btw) was a bit of a wake up call.

lol I know it wasnt you

Hard to pinpoint exactly when its happened. Also his main stats, the public ones that everyone can find easily (basketball-reference, for example) don't look especially impressive. A lot of that is because a #1 scoring SG that doesnt rack up counting stats get downplayed by metrics. 25-5-5 is excellent for a SG, even if those assist numbers dipped into 2-3. But because his efficiency isnt elite (.570-.580 TS), he wasnt highly regarded

But in the context of him being the Wolves' offensive engine, on a team where they deploy several defense-first or defense-only guys, with very high usage, very low turnover rates, and very high AST% for a SG.. its way, way more impressive. And then there's defensive metrics, which are very inaccurate w/o context. And he's doing well there too. Klay was underrated as a 2 guard for a while for the same reason.. a lot of those PM metrics that incorporate boxscores do not like wings who aren't playmakers

At this point he's at the top of the draft with Hali right behind him. I'd put Maxey over LaMelo if I'm being 100% honest, but its one of those splitting hairs thing. I wouldnt argue if people had Lamelo over Maxey. After those 4 though, man the dropoff is steep. Vassell? Bane? The depth in that draft is gross

At the start of the season, if you had him on a list with the top picks of the draft prior and post, I don't think he goes top 3, maybe not even top 5. Ja, Zion, Garland, Lamelo, Hali, Franz, Mobley, Cade, Sengun. It's one of the reasons why I am still keeping the candle lit for JK and not sold on Mobley or Franz.

It's also the reason why I bailed on Wiseman. Once Lamelo and Ant looked like legit, star level players, I figured the chances of Wiseman being that good were essentially 0. My scientific approach was "I can't think of any draft where the top 3 players were all stars and none busted so if it ain't lamelo or ant..."

Ant was absolutely top 3 on this list before this season started. Anyone that was taking garland, lamelo, Hali over ant really have to question what they’re watching. Everyone on team USA was saying ant was the best player on the team last year.

[KevinMcreynolds]

Even if Warriors had won the 1st pick, they were still taking Wiseman over Edwards. In fact, I just read several quotes from Lacob stating Wiseman was their number 1 guy regardless. THAT'S how inept this FO is. Kerr didn't like Edwards and questioned his work ethic. Heck, remember Kerr coaching Edwards in the World Cup last summer and his initial plan was for him to come off the bench. Also, they didn't like Ball because they didn't want to deal with his father's antics. So, it was Wiseman all day, all the time.

But...

As I watch Edwards show athleticism and basketball gifts that remind one of Michael Jordan, I can't help but imagine him next to Curry. OMG. What a show that would have been.

On the surface, it appeared so close to happening; in reality, the Warriors FO had zero interest in making it happen.

I don't think any of this is true. Pretty sure I read multiple reports that Edwards was their #1 guy. I'm also pretty sure I heard Larry Harris actually say it in an interview. And the "didn't want to deal with his father" thing was nothing more than a random twitter take.

It's brutal that we missed out on Ant but it's not that big of deal we missed out on Lamelo. He never plays. Wiseman just busted and we got rid of him, problem solved. Lamelo showed talent and is now fleecing them for 260 mill.

[floppymoose]

MIN up on DEN 61-35 at the half. At Denver. I know only one game is in the books, but this is when i first start wondering… will the wolves sweep the champs?

[Onus]

MIN up on DEN 61-35 at the half. At Denver. I know only one game is in the books, but this is when i first start wondering… will the wolves sweep the champs?

It’s looking like a sweep. The nuggets have no answers. Their only chance is for Jokic to take over and really that’s most likely only 1 game at most.

[CDM_Stats]

MIN up on DEN 61-35 at the half. At Denver. I know only one game is in the books, but this is when i first start wondering… will the wolves sweep the champs?

It’s looking like a sweep. The nuggets have no answers. Their only chance is for Jokic to take over and really that’s most likely only 1 game at most.

Also keep in mind.. this is without Gobert

[EvanZ]

Not gonna lie I’m completely shocked about this. I 1000% assumed Denver would win game 2.

[Onus]

Not gonna lie I’m completely shocked about this. I 1000% assumed Denver would win game 2.

This is wild. Denver looks like they don’t even belong in the same league and this is a desperation spot for them as well.