How does Lacob get out of luxury tax ASAP?

[cdubbz]

To all the savvy capologists and luxury tax gurus - What do the Warriors need to do to GET OUT of the Luxury tax?

Does Klay expiring and not re-signing as well as not guaranteeing CP3 contract this summer do the trick? Does that mean we can't make any trades really in order for Warriors to get under the cap?

[EvanZ]

This year they were $41.6M over the luxury tax threshold. If I understand correctly, by letting Klay walk their tax bill goes from a crazy $186M down to $6M. Alternatively they could let CP3 walk and re-sign Klay at like $25M. That might get them out of the tax completely.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/golden-state-warriors/cap/

Got this tidbit from a cap expert:

even if GPII opts out and they stretch Looney they're still under the cap by less than the NTMLE, at which point it makes more sense to stay over the cap

That was a hypothetical answering my question if they can get under the cap by letting Klay and CP3 walk. So it sounds like definitely can reduce the luxury tax almost entirely but getting under the cap in a meaningful way probably not possible without some other salary dump.

[Crazy-Canuck]

They need the contract slot to compete. You cant just let the contracts expire for nothing.

[Onus]

They need the contract slot to compete. You cant just let the contracts expire for nothing.

Letting Klay expire for nothing helps the team tremendously

[EvanZ]

They need the contract slot to compete. You cant just let the contracts expire for nothing.

That's what CP3 is for if they want to use it. They can also sign and trade Klay if he's amenable to it. They don't need both of those guys obviously.

[killmongrel]

They need the contract slot to compete. You cant just let the contracts expire for nothing.

They will probably just let Klay walk if he doesn't take a team friendly deal. And I hope he doesn't because I really can't deal with him being on this team any longer. That's 44m off the books.

They will pick up CP3's 30m option for next season, at least I hope they do, and use it to make moves.

They will also have GP2's 9m.

They can use Looney's 7.5m as well or just decide to only guarantee 3m of it. That's another 4.5m off the books.

So they have ways to free salary as well as salaries they can use in trades.

[xdrta+]

Right now the projected 24-25 cap is $141M and the tax line is $171M. If the Warriors get no salary back for Klay or CP, and don't pick up Looney's guarantee, but do pick up Santos's $1.8M, as it stands now, they will have $139M guaranteed salaries for 9 players. That leaves $32M below tax to sign 5 players and stay below tax. As soon as they take back salary for Klay and/or CP that $32M disappears quickly.

[SinceGatlingWasARookie]

There is no asap. He will be out of the luxury tax when Steph and Draymond retire.

He can let CP3 and Klay walk away.
If you trade CP3 and Moody and draft picks for Dejounte Murray you don’t get out of luxury tax.

KD for Deangelo Russel for Wiggins was not the behavior of an owner trying to get out of luxury tax.

Small market media wants big market teams to be controlled by luxury tax so that small market teams can win championships. Nuggets and Bucks won. Small market teams need to get lucky and get a top 5 player otherwise the luxury tax paying big market teams will win all the championships.

Tough luck small markets, Warriors and Lacob don’t have to play by your rules.

[killmongrel]

Right now the projected 24-25 cap is $141M and the tax line is $171M. If the Warriors get no salary back for Klay or CP, and don't pick up Looney's guarantee, but do pick up Santos's $1.8M, as it stands now, they will have $139M guaranteed salaries for 9 players. That leaves $32M below tax to sign 5 players and stay below tax. As soon as they take back salary for Klay and/or CP that $32M disappears quickly.

So if they let both Klay and CP3 walk, they could sign 5 vet minimum players and stay out of the luxury tax? And they would also have their non-taxpayer MLE?

[xdrta+]

Right now the projected 24-25 cap is $141M and the tax line is $171M. If the Warriors get no salary back for Klay or CP, and don't pick up Looney's guarantee, but do pick up Santos's $1.8M, as it stands now, they will have $139M guaranteed salaries for 9 players. That leaves $32M below tax to sign 5 players and stay below tax. As soon as they take back salary for Klay and/or CP that $32M disappears quickly.

So if they let both Klay and CP3 walk, they could sign 5 vet minimum players and stay out of the luxury tax? And they would also have their non-taxpayer MLE?

Sure. If you're keeping Looney you have $6M less to spend, but it's enough. The non-tax MLE is projected about $13M, plus 4 minimum salaries would bring your total team salary to about $165M. You're hard-capped at the 1st Apron, $178M, because you used the NTMLE, but if you're going all out to avoid the tax that shouldn't be a problem. Not sure what kind of team you'd have, but you could get out of the repeater tax for the future.

EDIT: Actually there is $1M more than I thought. Looney is only another $5M, not 6.

[killmongrel]

Right now the projected 24-25 cap is $141M and the tax line is $171M. If the Warriors get no salary back for Klay or CP, and don't pick up Looney's guarantee, but do pick up Santos's $1.8M, as it stands now, they will have $139M guaranteed salaries for 9 players. That leaves $32M below tax to sign 5 players and stay below tax. As soon as they take back salary for Klay and/or CP that $32M disappears quickly.

So if they let both Klay and CP3 walk, they could sign 5 vet minimum players and stay out of the luxury tax? And they would also have their non-taxpayer MLE?

Sure. If you're keeping Looney you have $6M less to spend, but it's enough. The non-tax MLE is projected about $13M, plus 4 minimum salaries would bring your total team salary to about $165M. You're hard-capped at the 1st Apron, $178M, because you used the NTMLE, but if you're going all out to avoid the tax that shouldn't be a problem. Not sure what kind of team you'd have, but you could get out of the repeater tax for the future.

Yikes. Now I'm scared this is what ownership is planning to do.

[xdrta+]

So if they let both Klay and CP3 walk, they could sign 5 vet minimum players and stay out of the luxury tax? And they would also have their non-taxpayer MLE?

Sure. If you're keeping Looney you have $6M less to spend, but it's enough. The non-tax MLE is projected about $13M, plus 4 minimum salaries would bring your total team salary to about $165M. You're hard-capped at the 1st Apron, $178M, because you used the NTMLE, but if you're going all out to avoid the tax that shouldn't be a problem. Not sure what kind of team you'd have, but you could get out of the repeater tax for the future.

Yikes. Now I'm scared this is what ownership is planning to do.

Yeah, I get that, but I don't know how much worse a team it would be. Steph, Draymond, Wiggins, GP2, Kuminga, Moody, Podz, TJD, Gui, and (Looney?) Maybe let Looney go. Then look for a $12-13M FA with the NTMLE. 4-5 minimum salaries. Is that worse than this year? Maybe a tossup. It could be very tempting to get out of repeater tax hell.

[marthafokker]

I would let Klay and CP3 walk just so Moody and Podz get playing time. And get rid of Kerr too just so kids don't get benched for vets.

And use the MLE for a big for god's sake.

[killmongrel]

Sure. If you're keeping Looney you have $6M less to spend, but it's enough. The non-tax MLE is projected about $13M, plus 4 minimum salaries would bring your total team salary to about $165M. You're hard-capped at the 1st Apron, $178M, because you used the NTMLE, but if you're going all out to avoid the tax that shouldn't be a problem. Not sure what kind of team you'd have, but you could get out of the repeater tax for the future.

Yikes. Now I'm scared this is what ownership is planning to do.

Yeah, I get that, but I don't know how much worse a team it would be. Steph, Draymond, Wiggins, GP2, Kuminga, Moody, Podz, TJD, Gui, and (Looney?) Maybe let Looney go. Then look for a $12-13M FA with the NTMLE. 4-5 minimum salaries. Is that worse than this year? Maybe a tossup. It could be very tempting to get out of repeater tax hell.

I bet it wouldn't be worse, but unless every one of those players play up to their standards and potential, and they get somebody amazing with that mle, it's over.

[GQ Hot Dog]

Yikes. Now I'm scared this is what ownership is planning to do.

Yeah, I get that, but I don't know how much worse a team it would be. Steph, Draymond, Wiggins, GP2, Kuminga, Moody, Podz, TJD, Gui, and (Looney?) Maybe let Looney go. Then look for a $12-13M FA with the NTMLE. 4-5 minimum salaries. Is that worse than this year? Maybe a tossup. It could be very tempting to get out of repeater tax hell.

I bet it wouldn't be worse, but unless every one of those players play up to their standards and potential, and they get somebody amazing with that mle, it's over.

I don't agree with your pessimism. If Kuminga continues on his development trajectory, I think we're only rotation pieces away from contending.

[killmongrel]

Yeah, I get that, but I don't know how much worse a team it would be. Steph, Draymond, Wiggins, GP2, Kuminga, Moody, Podz, TJD, Gui, and (Looney?) Maybe let Looney go. Then look for a $12-13M FA with the NTMLE. 4-5 minimum salaries. Is that worse than this year? Maybe a tossup. It could be very tempting to get out of repeater tax hell.

I bet it wouldn't be worse, but unless every one of those players play up to their standards and potential, and they get somebody amazing with that mle, it's over.

I don't agree with your pessimism. If Kuminga continues on his development trajectory, I think we're only rotation pieces away from contending.

That's why I said some things have to go right. But that's a lot of ifs. The thing that has to be compensated for as well is the shooting we thought Klay was going to bring this season. To me, Kuminga can be a great 3rd option. But depending on him to be the consistent second option already for a 37 year old Steph? Way too much of an expectation.

And who is that player we can get with that MLE? Jesus if this is the FO's big plan this summer.

[xdrta+]

Yikes. Now I'm scared this is what ownership is planning to do.

Yeah, I get that, but I don't know how much worse a team it would be. Steph, Draymond, Wiggins, GP2, Kuminga, Moody, Podz, TJD, Gui, and (Looney?) Maybe let Looney go. Then look for a $12-13M FA with the NTMLE. 4-5 minimum salaries. Is that worse than this year? Maybe a tossup. It could be very tempting to get out of repeater tax hell.

I bet it wouldn't be worse, but unless every one of those players play up to their standards and potential, and they get somebody amazing with that mle, it's over.

Over for sure if you're counting on a straight shot into contention. That's not easy no matter how you slice it. Sometimes aiming at being competitive with just a seat at the table come playoff time is more realistic. BTW, I left out another exception that opens up, the bi-annual. Projected at $4.6M it's a fair bit above the minimum and you can still squeeze it in under the tax.

[killmongrel]

Yeah, I get that, but I don't know how much worse a team it would be. Steph, Draymond, Wiggins, GP2, Kuminga, Moody, Podz, TJD, Gui, and (Looney?) Maybe let Looney go. Then look for a $12-13M FA with the NTMLE. 4-5 minimum salaries. Is that worse than this year? Maybe a tossup. It could be very tempting to get out of repeater tax hell.

I bet it wouldn't be worse, but unless every one of those players play up to their standards and potential, and they get somebody amazing with that mle, it's over.

Over for sure if you're counting on a straight shot into contention. That's not easy no matter how you slice it. Sometimes aiming at being competitive with just a seat at the table come playoff time is more realistic. BTW, I left out another exception that opens up, the bi-annual. Projected at $4.6M it's a fair bit above the minimum and you can still squeeze it in under the tax.

Yeah, I'm not saying they have no chance. But the odds are going to be stacked against them big time.

By the way, I took a quick look at some of the free agents that might be available for that MLE.

Doug McDermott - Not really exciting. Just a scorer.
Isiah Hartenstein - Are the Knicks going to re-sign him to a bigger deal?
Andre Drummond - Better than any of our centers right now.
Lonnie Walker - Actually having a good season and can hit the 3.
Goga Bitadze - Would be nice to do small trade to get him now though.
Mason Plumlee - Warriors were interested in him weren't they?
Jonas Valanciunias - Probably getting a bigger contract somewhere.

Those are probably the most notable names I can think of that are around the NTPMLE.

[gswhoop]

Follow up question is if they get under for 24/25. And go over during 25/26 would it be considered repeater or do we start fresh with going over the tax?

[xdrta+]

Follow up question is if they get under for 24/25. And go over during 25/26 would it be considered repeater or do we start fresh with going over the tax?

The repeater tax is triggered when a team is a taxpayer in the previous 3 out of 4 seasons, not including the just completed season. So, since they've been over the tax for 3 years, one year under won't do it. They need to be under for the next two years to avoid it the following year. This will be important because with the new CBA, 25-26 is when there is a big jump in repeater tax rates.