2024 JK Thread

[vvoland]

Where were you guys when JK was getting benched in the playoffs? Where were you when Franz put up 34 13 4 and won a game in the playoffs when Paulo put up 9 4 and 5? I'd love for JK to win us a meaningful game in the playoffs in his 3 years but he keeps getting benched. Hell this years rookies have passed him on the depth charts, so don't go blaming Steve.

I was right here wishing JK would get some more PT.

If he was deserving of PT he'd get it. Kerr has no problem going to his bench and giving players minutes. He's given rookies, two way players minutes. Hell he even was giving Wiseman minutes. The only players he seems to not give minutes to are JK and Moody. Which is odd because we have a gaping hole at the position (big wing) JK is supposed to fulfill.

JK does 2 things well. Takes advantage of size mismatches (smaller players) and he finishes well when there's no rim protection. Other than that he's probably average to below average at every other single skill in basketball. His biggest problem is that he's a bad defender. He's a terrible on ball defender, though he has flashes. But on a possession by possession basis he's getting blown by more frequently than he gets stops. He's a terrible rebounder. He's a terrible help defender. He's terrible in rotations. If he could even be neutral on defense he'd get more playing time. But he continually makes bad decisions on defense or is lost.

I really think he needs his role simplified on defense and we need to have him take on Klay's role defensively. Just be a solid poa defender. That way he can get out in transition and he doesn't have to rebound or rotate as much. But that means we need a big that can shoot.

Your bias is showing. JK is a better rebounder than Franz - per 36, per 100 possession or by reb %. He looks like he is a better shooter, too but I'm not so willing to bet on it, yet.

P.S. Franz is like 5 inches taller and plays the 4 more often the JK does.

[CDM_Stats]

Franz helps his team's rebounding, JK does not

That said, Franz is a miserable contested rebound type. He's great at boxing out (team rebounding), which is why when he's on the court, the Magic rebound better by about 1.5%.. and when JK's on the court, the Warriors rebound worse by about 3.5%, despite being a better defensive team with him on court and allowing 1.8% less eFG%, which should result in more defensive rebounding and thus a higher percentage. This is a result of Kuminga's poor team rebounding, as he likes to use athleticism in lieu of fundamentals

I'm glad were allowed to talk about Franz here again! He had a great series up until game 7 where the moment ate him alive. Was definitely in his own head. Magic desperately need some shooting because the Cavs just sunk into the key and waited, while the rest of the Magic clanked the night away

[Onus]

P.S. Franz is like 5 inches taller and plays the 4 more often the JK does.

JK strictly played the 4 for us.

[vvoland]

Franz helps his team's rebounding, JK does not

That said, Franz is a miserable contested rebound type. He's great at boxing out (team rebounding), which is why when he's on the court, the Magic rebound better by about 1.5%.. and when JK's on the court, the Warriors rebound worse by about 3.5%, despite being a better defensive team with him on court and allowing 1.8% less eFG%, which should result in more defensive rebounding and thus a higher percentage. This is a result of Kuminga's poor team rebounding, as he likes to use athleticism in lieu of fundamentals

I'm glad were allowed to talk about Franz here again! He had a great series up until game 7 where the moment ate him alive. Was definitely in his own head. Magic desperately need some shooting because the Cavs just sunk into the key and waited, while the rest of the Magic clanked the night away

Are you sure that's the correct inference? Is it that JK "doesn't help the team's rebounding" or is it that when JK is playing, there's rarely a center on the court (dray at the 5) and when he's off, a center typically takes his place? Early in the season, it was Wigs, Dray, Loon and late in the year, it was wigs, dray, tjd. I would expect those lineups to rebound better than the wigs, jk, dray lineups that we typically saw when JK started. I get these are just the starting lineups, not necessarily what the 5 man unit was throughout the game but the 'franz helps his team's rebounding vs JK does not' seems like an assumption based on incomplete data.

Last thing. You talk about a decline but I'm curious what it is relative to. GSW was one of the better rebounding teams this season, by almost any metric. That's despite playing small, having a bunch of out of sync lineups, scrambled rotations, and, everyone's favorite, 3 guard lineups featuring 2 small guards. My question, despite the 3.5% decrease in team rebound rate, does having JK move the team that far down the line in terms of rebounding? e.g., do we go from 1st to 22nd or is it more like 1st to 3rd, after that 3.5% drop? Are we a better rebounding team w/ JK in the lineup than the magic are with Franz on the court?

[vvoland]

P.S. Franz is like 5 inches taller and plays the 4 more often the JK does.

JK strictly played the 4 for us.

JK's most used lineups featured Wigs and Dray along w/ JK in the frontcourt. You can call JK a 5 in that trio, but that's not the position he played on either end of the court. He was on the perimeter, creating off the dribble on offense, and, more often than not, on the perimeter defensively. You can call him the 4, if you'd like, but I'd say he played a lot more like a 3 than Franz did (despite Orlando having no one who could pass as a legit small forward).

[CDM_Stats]

Are you sure that's the correct inference?
All things being equal - meaning subbing JK out for these guys in specific lineups - JK's rebounding impact is among the worst on the team. Moody, Payton, Wiggins... sub either of them in for him, and the team's rebounding gets better. There's no getting around it. He's just a bad team rebounder at this point, because he skies for rebounds using athleticism instead of finding a body and sealing it off for the good of the team. Also doesnt seem to be great at tracking rebounds. Now the numbers I used were overall, and he absolutely is absorbing some of the negative value of Klay and CP3 there. But he also rebounded poorly when Dray and TJD were out there. He had a lot of minutes with Podz, who's tide lifted almost all rebounding boats this year. It is a problem and he needs to figure out how to box out and how to read angles

Last thing. You talk about a decline but I'm curious what it is relative to. GSW was one of the better rebounding teams this season, by almost any metric. That's despite playing small, having a bunch of out of sync lineups, scrambled rotations, and, everyone's favorite, 3 guard lineups featuring 2 small guards. My question, despite the 3.5% decrease in team rebound rate, does having JK move the team that far down the line in terms of rebounding? e.g., do we go from 1st to 22nd or is it more like 1st to 3rd, after that 3.5% drop? Are we a better rebounding team w/ JK in the lineup than the magic are with Franz on the court?

Franz is a better team rebounder and its not close. He boxes out, Kuminga does not. Kerr's rotations absolutely do him no favors, but thats because Kerr's rotations reward people who do those things. In most systems, Podz is not a 11% rebrate guy simply by virtue of where he's supposed to be defensively. So the Warriors switch a lot, meaning guards board more, meaning team rebounding is more important. Its effectively putting their actual skill levels under a magnifying glass. Podz is good, but looks great because of it. Kuminga is bad, and looks worse because of it

[CDM_Stats]

P.S. Franz is like 5 inches taller and plays the 4 more often the JK does.

JK strictly played the 4 for us.

JK's most used lineups featured Wigs and Dray along w/ JK in the frontcourt. You can call JK a 5 in that trio, but that's not the position he played on either end of the court. He was on the perimeter, creating off the dribble on offense, and, more often than not, on the perimeter defensively. You can call him the 4, if you'd like, but I'd say he played a lot more like a 3 than Franz did (despite Orlando having no one who could pass as a legit small forward).

Even if you call Wiggins the 4 over JK - which based on their defensive allotment, probably shouldnt - JK was primarily a 4 in almost every lineup he was in. Its why the calls for JK/Dray/TJD were happening at the end of the season.. because Kerr never did it. Wagner slid to the 4 very rarely. The 4 was mostly Paolo/Isaac, the 5 was WCJ/Mo/Goga. They played big a lot to counteract their lack of shooting

What JK has over Franz is his finishing ability and his catch radius. Both are extremely important for cutters, and JK crushes him there. And if Franz really does turtle up w/his shooting, he may have Franz there too. Beyond that, Franz is better. Handles, midrange, defense, rebounding.. just is. I mean Franz had a brutal shooting season, right? His eFG% on jumpers was 43%.. Kuminga's was 44%. And Kuminga had 4 pts on him with his 3 ball (32 to 28)

[vvoland]

Are you sure that's the correct inference?
All things being equal - meaning subbing JK out for these guys in specific lineups - JK's rebounding impact is among the worst on the team. Moody, Payton, Wiggins... sub either of them in for him, and the team's rebounding gets better. There's no getting around it. He's just a bad team rebounder at this point, because he skies for rebounds using athleticism instead of finding a body and sealing it off for the good of the team. Also doesnt seem to be great at tracking rebounds. Now the numbers I used were overall, and he absolutely is absorbing some of the negative value of Klay and CP3 there. But he also rebounded poorly when Dray and TJD were out there. He had a lot of minutes with Podz, who's tide lifted almost all rebounding boats this year. It is a problem and he needs to figure out how to box out and how to read angles

Last thing. You talk about a decline but I'm curious what it is relative to. GSW was one of the better rebounding teams this season, by almost any metric. That's despite playing small, having a bunch of out of sync lineups, scrambled rotations, and, everyone's favorite, 3 guard lineups featuring 2 small guards. My question, despite the 3.5% decrease in team rebound rate, does having JK move the team that far down the line in terms of rebounding? e.g., do we go from 1st to 22nd or is it more like 1st to 3rd, after that 3.5% drop? Are we a better rebounding team w/ JK in the lineup than the magic are with Franz on the court?

Franz is a better team rebounder and its not close. He boxes out, Kuminga does not. Kerr's rotations absolutely do him no favors, but thats because Kerr's rotations reward people who do those things. In most systems, Podz is not a 11% rebrate guy simply by virtue of where he's supposed to be defensively. So the Warriors switch a lot, meaning guards board more, meaning team rebounding is more important. Its effectively putting their actual skill levels under a magnifying glass. Podz is good, but looks great because of it. Kuminga is bad, and looks worse because of it

You didn't address the team rebounding question, not sure if you just don't have the numbers handy. Did we go from best by a mile rebounding team to middle of the pack? or from best to top 5? and in relation to Olrando's rebounding rates, how do franz and JK measure up there?

With Franz being a better team rebounder and JK being a better individual rebounder, are we sure Franz is a better rebounder overall? Enough so that calling JK a terrible rebounder, as onus did, makes comparative sense?

[CDM_Stats]

You didn't address the team rebounding question, not sure if you just don't have the numbers handy. Did we go from best by a mile rebounding team to middle of the pack? or from best to top 5? and in relation to Olrando's rebounding rates, how do franz and JK measure up there?

Explain how you'd like that question addressed, in detail. Specifically, with whom would I replace Kuminga's impact? Just erasing him isnt logically viable. His presence resulted in a -3.3% rebound rate. Depending on who I replaced him with would determine how wide the gulf is. There's no getting around that he's bad at this. And I feel like this is a way of saying we'd still be #1 without Kuminga or with Kuminga, thus its meaningless. And I really hope thats not the case

With Franz being a better team rebounder and JK being a better individual rebounder, are we sure Franz is a better rebounder overall? Enough so that calling JK a terrible rebounder, as onus did, makes comparative sense?

Clearly yes, because measuring an individual rebounder in the way you are makes no sense. Franz was mostly a 3, Kuminga mostly a 4. They played in different systems. There's one metric that can give somewhat of an idea - contested rebound rate - but that doesnt measure one of the most important parts of rebounding, which is reading the ball off the rim.

More than that, EVERY rebound is a team rebound. How many rebounds are based on an individual, where its 1 on 1? How good is the person they are up against? There's no way you can make that an effective or useful measurement. Team rebounding is what matters.. there's no isolations in rebounding

[vvoland]

You didn't address the team rebounding question, not sure if you just don't have the numbers handy. Did we go from best by a mile rebounding team to middle of the pack? or from best to top 5? and in relation to Olrando's rebounding rates, how do franz and JK measure up there?

Explain how you'd like that question addressed, in detail. Specifically, with whom would I replace Kuminga's impact? Just erasing him isnt logically viable. His presence resulted in a -3.3% rebound rate. Depending on who I replaced him with would determine how wide the gulf is. There's no getting around that he's bad at this. And I feel like this is a way of saying we'd still be #1 without Kuminga or with Kuminga, thus its meaningless. And I really hope thats not the case

With Franz being a better team rebounder and JK being a better individual rebounder, are we sure Franz is a better rebounder overall? Enough so that calling JK a terrible rebounder, as onus did, makes comparative sense?

Clearly yes, because measuring an individual rebounder in the way you are makes no sense. Franz was mostly a 3, Kuminga mostly a 4. They played in different systems. There's one metric that can give somewhat of an idea - contested rebound rate - but that doesnt measure one of the most important parts of rebounding, which is reading the ball off the rim.

More than that, EVERY rebound is a team rebound. How many rebounds are based on an individual, where its 1 on 1? How good is the person they are up against? There's no way you can make that an effective or useful measurement. Team rebounding is what matters.. there's no isolations in rebounding

Hold on a sec. So one guy, on the best rebounding team in the league, has a better contested rebound rate, better per 36 or per 100 possessions numbers, better total reb % but because 1 stat that measures team rebounding rate is better for the 2nd guy, the first is a 'terrible rebounder' while the 2nd isn't? That's after we established that the person replacing JK, most nights, is a center so we can expect that the team rebounding % increases. When I ask if the team drops from 1st to 15th or 1st to 2nd the response I get is "it's meaningless?" Comparing the magic to the dubs and how both teams rebound w/ JK and franz on the court is also meaningless? So if Orl, with franz at the 3 is rebounding at a lower rate than GSW with JK at 4 and Dray at 5 that doesn't matter? Maybe I misunderstood, but this seems like a complete cherry pick of the numbers.

[CDM_Stats]

Hold on a sec. So one guy, on the best rebounding team in the league, has a better contested rebound rate, better per 36 or per 100 possessions numbers, better total reb % but because 1 stat that measures team rebounding rate is better for the 2nd guy, the first is a 'terrible rebounder' while the 2nd isn't?

Yes. Because most of this isnt relevant to team rebounding. And they dont play the same position or have the same amount of rebounding opportunities. The Warriors engage in rebounding socialism.. whereas most teams will have their 2 bigs primarily in the paint and getting uncontested rebounds, the Warriors spread that wealth around due to their defensive system. Its why their guards skew heavy and their bigs skew lighter relative to the rest of the league. Its why the POA is frequently nerfed on rebounding. Uncontested rebounds make up a significant portion of rebounds, especially on higher paced teams

That's after we established that the person replacing JK, most nights, is a center so we can expect that the team rebounding % increases. When I ask if the team drops from 1st to 15th or 1st to 2nd the response I get is "it's meaningless?" Comparing the magic to the dubs and how both teams rebound w/ JK and franz on the court is also meaningless? So if Orl, with franz at the 3 is rebounding at a lower rate than GSW with JK at 4 and Dray at 5 that doesn't matter? Maybe I misunderstood, but this seems like a complete cherry pick of the numbers.

WE didnt establish anything. You claimed it. And I explained it in detail that its not just Looney or TJD, which is actually the cherry pick here. It was for everyone that JK replaced. Who, among the people JK replaced, helped the team rebound less than him? The answer is none. There was no 3, 4 or 5 who JK replaced that hurt the team in rebounding as much as he did, with the exception of maybe Klay Thompson, but that would have to be position specific where Kuminga was definitely a 3 or Klay was definitely a 4.

Team rebounding impact = valuable to know. Individual rebounding = maybe valuable, if its in line with team rebounding. JK's presence made the Warriors a much worse rebounding team, to the point where guys like Moody and GP2, who weren't near the rim as much, were much better. And I get what you're saying - you're trying to portray the Warriors as the best rebounding team and the Magic arent.

Well, thats wrong too. They are relatively equal, with the Magic being much better defensive rebounding, and the Warriors much better with offensive rebounding. If adjusted for pace, the Magic are much better overall, because teams with higher pace tend to get a higher % of offensive rebounds as a built-in benefit for having accelerated pace. Which is why using per 36 or per 100 is meaningless because without pace adjustments and efficiency numbers, you're basically rewarding the amount of possessions per game being higher

And here's the thing that gets me - if you looked into even the basic team stats, youd see that. The Magic are slow paced, the Warriors are not. The Warriors got the most rebounds in the league, but they werent the best rebounding team. And maybe its omitted because you didnt think of it.. but you get really creative when you are trying to argue for something you already believe. Have you ever tried doing that the opposite direction? Because if you do, you wont need to ask as much. And if you dont, I have to assume your goal isn't to get to the truth, its for your original take to be right. Just my 2c

[RUN-TJM]

Just my 2c

Out of curiosity, what are JK’s advanced numbers like from Jan 15th to the play-in game? His numbers would be horribly skewed prior to that point. They might be subpar still…

Although that could be seen to slanting the results in his favour. Much like when people say, “Moody averages 20-5-3 and shoots 40% from 3 when he plays 25+ min.” No **** Sherlock. Kerr has such a short leash on Moody he only plays bigger minutes when he plays well. First mistake and he’s outta there!

[CDM_Stats]

Just my 2c

Out of curiosity, what are JK’s advanced numbers like from Jan 15th to the play-in game? His numbers would be horribly skewed prior to that point. They might be subpar still…

Although that could be seen to slanting the results in his favour. Much like when people say, “Moody averages 20-5-3 and shoots 40% from 3 when he plays 25+ min.” No **** Sherlock. Kerr has such a short leash on Moody he only plays bigger minutes when he plays well. First mistake and he’s outta there!

It almost certainly would, but what would you be looking for specifically? A general overview or more zoomed-in things like rebounding, defense, etc

[RUN-TJM]

Just my 2c

Out of curiosity, what are JK’s advanced numbers like from Jan 15th to the play-in game? His numbers would be horribly skewed prior to that point. They might be subpar still…

Although that could be seen to slanting the results in his favour. Much like when people say, “Moody averages 20-5-3 and shoots 40% from 3 when he plays 25+ min.” No **** Sherlock. Kerr has such a short leash on Moody he only plays bigger minutes when he plays well. First mistake and he’s outta there!

It almost certainly would, but what would you be looking for specifically? A general overview or more zoomed-in things like rebounding, defense, etc

I guess I’m more interested in perceived weaknesses that need some attention. Defence, rebounding etc.

His passing and shooting progressed by the eye test so less concerned about that although his offensive efficiency would be interesting.

[vvoland]

Hold on a sec. So one guy, on the best rebounding team in the league, has a better contested rebound rate, better per 36 or per 100 possessions numbers, better total reb % but because 1 stat that measures team rebounding rate is better for the 2nd guy, the first is a 'terrible rebounder' while the 2nd isn't?

Yes. Because most of this isnt relevant to team rebounding. And they dont play the same position or have the same amount of rebounding opportunities. The Warriors engage in rebounding socialism.. whereas most teams will have their 2 bigs primarily in the paint and getting uncontested rebounds, the Warriors spread that wealth around due to their defensive system. Its why their guards skew heavy and their bigs skew lighter relative to the rest of the league. Its why the POA is frequently nerfed on rebounding. Uncontested rebounds make up a significant portion of rebounds, especially on higher paced teams

That's after we established that the person replacing JK, most nights, is a center so we can expect that the team rebounding % increases. When I ask if the team drops from 1st to 15th or 1st to 2nd the response I get is "it's meaningless?" Comparing the magic to the dubs and how both teams rebound w/ JK and franz on the court is also meaningless? So if Orl, with franz at the 3 is rebounding at a lower rate than GSW with JK at 4 and Dray at 5 that doesn't matter? Maybe I misunderstood, but this seems like a complete cherry pick of the numbers.

WE didnt establish anything. You claimed it. And I explained it in detail that its not just Looney or TJD, which is actually the cherry pick here. It was for everyone that JK replaced. Who, among the people JK replaced, helped the team rebound less than him? The answer is none. There was no 3, 4 or 5 who JK replaced that hurt the team in rebounding as much as he did, with the exception of maybe Klay Thompson, but that would have to be position specific where Kuminga was definitely a 3 or Klay was definitely a 4.

Team rebounding impact = valuable to know. Individual rebounding = maybe valuable, if its in line with team rebounding. JK's presence made the Warriors a much worse rebounding team, to the point where guys like Moody and GP2, who weren't near the rim as much, were much better. And I get what you're saying - you're trying to portray the Warriors as the best rebounding team and the Magic arent.

Well, thats wrong too. They are relatively equal, with the Magic being much better defensive rebounding, and the Warriors much better with offensive rebounding. If adjusted for pace, the Magic are much better overall, because teams with higher pace tend to get a higher % of offensive rebounds as a built-in benefit for having accelerated pace. Which is why using per 36 or per 100 is meaningless because without pace adjustments and efficiency numbers, you're basically rewarding the amount of possessions per game being higher

And here's the thing that gets me - if you looked into even the basic team stats, youd see that. The Magic are slow paced, the Warriors are not. The Warriors got the most rebounds in the league, but they werent the best rebounding team. And maybe its omitted because you didnt think of it.. but you get really creative when you are trying to argue for something you already believe. Have you ever tried doing that the opposite direction? Because if you do, you wont need to ask as much. And if you dont, I have to assume your goal isn't to get to the truth, its for your original take to be right. Just my 2c

I think you're ascribing a lot of motivation to my posts that just isn't there. I'm not trying to portray the dubs as the best rebounding team in the league and the magic as poor. I just kept hearing that the dubs were league leaders in the category most of the season but didn't look at the numbers. After I got off work, I took a look and yes, the dubs were top of the league in offensive and middle of the pack defensively. JK's presence is really noticeable as with him on the court, their offensive reb rate and def reb rate both declined. You're saying this isn't correlation, it's causation. I'm not so sure. The most used JK lineups feature him at the 4 (something else I can admit I was wrong on), next to just one big. The most used non-JK lineups feature 2 bigs. I'm not so sure it's the fact that JK is bad for team rebounding as much as it is the lineups JK plays in aren't great rebounding lineups due to him playing the 4 and not the 3. The only lineup w/ JK at the 3 that played more than 10 possessions is with him next the saric and tjd. In those 23 possessions, they had a +39 net, 33% oreb% (would be tied for 1st w/ NYK) and an 85.7 dreb % (first by a country mile). It's the ultimate small sample size theater but man, I wish we saw more of JK at 3. The hilarious part is that lineup had podz and cojo as the two guards.

I'd agree he's not a good rebounder for a power forward but that doesn't mean franz is a better rebounder than JK. When all but one stat indicates JK is a better rebounder than franz, i find it weird that all the other stats are ignored and the team stat is the only one that has value.

Not sure why a fast pace = more offensive rebounding. Looking at the league leaders in pace, that doesn't really match up. e.g. Knicks had the slowest pace and the best oreb %. Den, Orl & Por were all top 7 in oreb% but had a pace under 98. Slow pace does look like it correlates to better defensive rebounding and that seems to make logical sense: bigs usually play slow, if you don't run, you have more players coming back to rebound, etc. Also, warriors were at 99.9 possession per 48 which was closer to the the top but was just almost as far from the fastest (103) as they were from the slowest (96). Of the top 10 teams by def reb %, only 2 had a pace of 100 or more (Det & Mil).

Per 100 possessions does account for pace. per 36 accounts for the difference in minutes the players get without accounting for pace. reb % accounts for both. It seems weird that we're judging individual rebounding by a team stat when we don't do that for anything else (and we didn't before the franz v jk comp). I mean, it's a team game, even scoring isn't coming as divorced from the other 4 people on the court.

Not sure who spends more time near the rim on defense, JK or GP2 or Moody. I haven't seen a heatmap of their defense but i don't have strong intuition on that metric.

[CDM_Stats]

I guess I’m more interested in perceived weaknesses that need some attention. Defence, rebounding etc.

His passing and shooting progressed by the eye test so less concerned about that although his offensive efficiency would be interesting.

There's not much improvement in either defense or rebounding for him.. at least not in any of the weighted, adjusted categories. There's marked improvement on things that are boxscore based, at least defensively, but that goes hand in hand with his increased minutes with Draymond, and dives when he wasn't playing with him

The big improvement he made was taking his current tools, which are driving, finishing, and a capable midrange, and using them to help the team. That's a significant step for someone who was as raw as he was and played for the thankfully dead GL Ignite. And while he's comped to Franz and definitely found wanting, Franz had 2 years of quality college basketball where such things typically develop, so JK's progressing just fine in that regard. But the idea that the defense and rebounding actually turned up... I cant get behind that. Its very artificial at this point

[vvoland]

thankfully dead GL Ignite.

Vicenie did a deep dive on the ignite looking at the ranking HS players had before going to the Ignite and where they got drafted. Out of like 20 prospects, only 2 improved their stock while playing w/ the Ignite. It was a dumpster fire and I'm also thrilled it's gone. I get the idea - put an outlet in the US that HS kids can attend and get paid (legally). The coaching and roster construction was abysmal - basically child abuse.

I've often wondered how JK would have looked after spending a year at a big time college program that was trying to win. Probably better enough that he doesn't slip to 7.

[CDM_Stats]

.

For rebounding, the data is what it is. JK is used as a 4, so he's a big by that definition. When he was replaced by people even smaller than him, the rebounding went up. Him at the 3 is interesting, mainly because thats what he should be, but if he can't credibly shoot or create there, he's just a cutter who is leaning on others to create for him, and you have to be a good defender or rebounder to make that viable as a starter on a good team. But back to the matter at hand - why would JK be any better at the 3? Is he going to start boxing people out? He's going to be more perimeter based, so I'd guess the implication is that he'd matter less, thus the damage would be minimized as its a less important rebounding position? The difference is that Franz helps solidly for a 3, JK hurt the team a lot as a 4. Moving him to the 3 isn't going to cover 5% difference, unless its subbing in Looney for Klay, but I'd imagine a Curry-Wiggins-JK-Dray-Looney lineup is going to have more pressing issues

Team rebounding is the only thing that matters. Their impact on team rebounding is what matters. There is no 1 on 1 rebounding. So yes, Franz being someone who boxes out and helps his team and JK being someone who doesnt and doesnt, means Franz is a better rebounder. And he's not even that good TBH, just average. JK's just that bad.. and you can keep saying "all but one stat" but they have no viability. Quality > quantity. Rebrate does not indicate how good a rebounder someone actually is, especially team rebounders. See David Lee's entire career. What matters - the only thing that matters - is how it helps the team. Would you evaluate scorers on PPG only?

Fast pace = transition = more offensive rebounds. It doesnt mean that said teams will do better overall, its that if you run more in transition you will get more OREB as a result, all other things equal. But you are right that it looks to have tapered off as a typical cause/effect situation when looking at the overall picture. I'd guess its because the game has become increasingly more perimeter-based. In fact, I think we're at a point in time where the teams hoisting the most perimeter shots + having the quicker perimeter players will start spiking this number. Either way, the trope that pace gets more OREBs might be dying if not dead.. I'll have to recalibrate that, because thats one of the first things I learned about metric analysis

Per 100 is useless, as is per36, in any actual eval. Per 36 doesnt account for pace; and neither accounts for efficiency. Both of those things are for normalizing mostly useless counting stats, so I'm circling back to the team rebounding argument, which is all about efficiency and impact

[vvoland]

.

For rebounding, the data is what it is. JK is used as a 4, so he's a big by that definition. When he was replaced by people even smaller than him, the rebounding went up. Him at the 3 is interesting, mainly because thats what he should be, but if he can't credibly shoot or create there, he's just a cutter who is leaning on others to create for him, and you have to be a good defender or rebounder to make that viable as a starter on a good team. But back to the matter at hand - why would JK be any better at the 3? Is he going to start boxing people out? He's going to be more perimeter based, so I'd guess the implication is that he'd matter less, thus the damage would be minimized as its a less important rebounding position? The difference is that Franz helps solidly for a 3, JK hurt the team a lot as a 4. Moving him to the 3 isn't going to cover 5% difference, unless its subbing in Looney for Klay, but I'd imagine a Curry-Wiggins-JK-Dray-Looney lineup is going to have more pressing issues

Team rebounding is the only thing that matters. Their impact on team rebounding is what matters. There is no 1 on 1 rebounding. So yes, Franz being someone who boxes out and helps his team and JK being someone who doesnt and doesnt, means Franz is a better rebounder. And he's not even that good TBH, just average. JK's just that bad.. and you can keep saying "all but one stat" but they have no viability. Quality > quantity. Rebrate does not indicate how good a rebounder someone actually is, especially team rebounders. See David Lee's entire career. What matters - the only thing that matters - is how it helps the team. Would you evaluate scorers on PPG only?

Fast pace = transition = more offensive rebounds. It doesnt mean that said teams will do better overall, its that if you run more in transition you will get more OREB as a result, all other things equal. But you are right that it looks to have tapered off as a typical cause/effect situation when looking at the overall picture. I'd guess its because the game has become increasingly more perimeter-based. In fact, I think we're at a point in time where the teams hoisting the most perimeter shots + having the quicker perimeter players will start spiking this number. Either way, the trope that pace gets more OREBs might be dying if not dead

Per 100 is useless, as is per36, in any actual eval. Per 36 doesnt account for pace; and neither accounts for efficiency. Both of those things are for normalizing mostly useless counting stats, so I'm circling back to the team rebounding argument, which is all about efficiency and impact

No, I wouldn't. But in this argument, you're essentially saying PPG doesn't matter and they only metric that matters is team points when a player is on or off the court. In fact, using points as a substitute for rebounds, you're saying, PPG doesn't matter. Points per 36 doesn't matter. Points per 100 possessions doesn't matter. The only thing that does is how well does a team score w/ a player on/off the court. I would agree rebounding is *more* of a team stat than points are but only to a point. I don't think either is completely independent of the team's context but neither is completely dependent on it.

The other point in this novel I forgot to mention is what you described as socialist rebounding on the dubs vs strict, role specific, rebounding for Orl. In that scenario, wouldn't JK be at a disadvantage as compared to Franz due to these divergent philosophies?

[CDM_Stats]

No, I wouldn't. But in this argument, you're essentially saying PPG doesn't matter and they only metric that matters is team points when a player is on or off the court. In fact, using points as a substitute for rebounds, you're saying, PPG doesn't matter. Points per 36 doesn't matter. Points per 100 possessions doesn't matter.

I wouldn't say it as black and white, but overall - yes. Has to be used within reason, because you can't roll 5 Jason Kidd's out there and expect to win, just like you couldnt roll out 5 Cam Thomas'. But given the choice between PPG vs how the team scores when said player is out on the court.. 1 measures the individual independent of the team, 1 measures the individual within the context of the team. Who cares which individual gets the points or the rebounds, so long as the team does?

The other point in this novel I forgot to mention is what you described as socialist rebounding on the dubs vs strict, role specific, rebounding for Orl. In that scenario, wouldn't JK be at a disadvantage as compared to Franz due to these divergent philosophies?

No, because socialism (and FTR, not bagging or promoting it in case that comp gets any traction) is about pulling people back towards the median. If you're good, it pulls you down. If you're bad, it lifts you up. Kuminga is bad, but gets more uncontested rebounds due to the switch-heavy nature of the Warriors. Rebounds that would equally go to Kevon Looney or Klay Thompson if they were in that space at that time. Its why the bunk narrative about Curry being a good rebounder was overstated.. he playing in a switch heavy offense, effectively being the SF hanging out in the corner with the most stationary player on the other team. He wasn't a better rebounder than Wiggins, it was just a byproduct of the system where Wiggins was chasing on the perimeter and Curry was mostly watching the play from a lawn chair