RealGM

michaelm wrote:I was on the Moody train myself and still am, he should be getting more minutes now regardless and I can only imagine Kerr has some strange prejudice against him.

I do think the team needs a second scorer/shooter, and those who argued Klay was the only likely candidate are looking to have been proven correct just now, admittedly from the evidence of only a few games. I still wouldn’t play Klay more than 30 minutes a game, preferably only 25 minutes, and definitely not on the closing unit for defensive possessions.

I thought he was alright in 2022 btw, particularly in the finals, but perhaps the short season he played aided his oft injured and somewhat old body.

I dont have any problem with the idea that Moody isnt anything special, more talking about the extreme sides on this Klay thing. A couple of games ago, he was blamed for an end of the game play where he did just fine.. and on the other side, people are justifying how Kerr's rotations, specifically re: Klay, have been all season because of a mini hot streak in April

Even without data, the Klay eye-test shows a guy who's extremely inconsistent and should not be written in ink to help the team any given night. But the issue is that Kerr, and maybe fans, see there only being one path to victory, the same one they've used in the past. And if the team truly had that mentality, 2022 never happens, because it required a massive defensive shift - as well as one away from the offense - to win. Fast-forward 2 years and one less Mike Brown, and the team is now going away from that idea and going back to the one where we need to offensively overwhelm teams to win. Ok, but that means the team's fate lives and dies by Klay's streakiness, which doesnt seem like a good bet for the playoffs.. especially since the only playoff team he's had success against recently is the Lakers, the 10 seed

Like you said, the one path is proven (klay) the other is not (moody). Anyone expecting klay or moody to replace the old klay is crazy. Moody could possibly do the defensive work and klay the shooting, but that is still two players filling one role and not simultaneously. That's a huge problem.

I agree with watch1958 and michael that Moody should have gotten more minutes period. I do recognize this team is a bit tough to decide who to give minutes to -- it's a pretty deep team, but one without a lot of top end talent.

CDM hits the nail on the head, Klay looks like the antidote to our lack of top end talent when he's in a groove... but when he's not, Steve needs to recognize that and lean into our defensive players like Moody. I think we all pray for as much en fuego Klaymaker as possible

Despite Moody struggling at times, he gets a decent amount of easy buckets in 'found money' type situations he gets through hustle and effort. This boosts his TS% to .579, Klay is at .575. Klay's 3P threat has him worth more on offense in general, but Moody isn't as far behind as it seems just from watching. Moody at 36.1% from 3, that's not amazing but considering his defense is fine. I wish he got longer stints this season, that period where he was starting he finally got a chance and looked great.

The current raw on/off for the team members who get minutes, through April 8 (from 82games.com):

floppymoose wrote:The current raw on/off for the team members who get minutes, through April 8 (from 82games.com):

Code: Select all

+8.5 Brandin Podziemski
+5.1 Draymond Green
+4.3 Gary Payton II
+3.2 Stephen Curry
+1.6 Jonathan Kuminga
+1.6 Chris Paul
+1.1 Moses Moody
-1.0 Trayce Jackson-Davis
-2.8 Kevon Looney
-4.8 Dario Saric
-6.4 Klay Thompson
-6.8 Andrew Wiggins


I knew podz would be an impact player from day 1 but to lead the team in plus minus is wild.

Part of Podz numbers are Klays numbers. In the first half of season Pod was more opposite of klay’s minutes than others.

floppymoose wrote:Part of Podz numbers are Klays numbers. In the first half of season Pod was more opposite of klay’s minutes than others.

Yea i guess he's really been the direct sub for Klay usually.

As I recall, Iguodala used to lead the team every year.

Nvnervous45 wrote:Like you said, the one path is proven (klay) the other is not (moody). Anyone expecting klay or moody to replace the old klay is crazy. Moody could possibly do the defensive work and klay the shooting, but that is still two players filling one role and not simultaneously. That's a huge problem.

I think its only a huge problem if we're trying to win the exact same way we have in the past, because yes - there's no going back to what worked in the past. Curry's older, there's less veteran talent on the team, Klay's really a fringe starter that needs to be protected from himself, the young players all have limitations that will prevent them from jumping into top 2-3 roles - Podz (scoring), JK (shooting/defense), Moody (offense), TJD (team defense/limited offense)

So the thing to do, or the thing that should have been done, is to look to replace that formerly positive impact with something new. A lot of us latched on to the team being more defense-based. Kerr responded by entirely ignoring that and putting some of the worst defensive units we could throw out, trying to jump start our offense. It didn't work and now the team is in the 9th seed and still just hoping/praying that Klay can be pre-Covid Klay - and not just be that Klay, but be consistently good, which is something he didnt do even at his peak

Just doesnt seem like much of a plan. Very phoned-in

CDM_Stats wrote:So the thing to do, or the thing that should have been done, is to look to replace that formerly positive impact with something new. A lot of us latched on to the team being more defense-based. Kerr responded by entirely ignoring that and putting some of the worst defensive units we could throw out, trying to jump start our offense. It didn't work and now the team is in the 9th seed and still just hoping/praying that Klay can be pre-Covid Klay - and not just be that Klay, but be consistently good, which is something he didnt do even at his peak

Just doesnt seem like much of a plan. Very phoned-in

We've reacted slowly to reality. I thought it was obvious in '23 that the team wasn't at the same level, and it wasn't just the punch. The players we brought in were worse than OPJ/GPII and we played a bunch of 2-ways. Playing 2-way guys that much should be an admission that the team either needs a trade, or that it's worth investing minutes in the young guys.

Then in the off season I thought we made some good moves, but didn't even dip our toes in the Jrue Holiday sweepstakes, which I think was a big mistake. Again we were late on facing reality, that we need a new backcourt mate for Steph -- Jrue would be able to play the old Klay-type role very well. I don't think Steve was ready to have Klay come off the bench, but of course Klay ended up coming off the bench later in the year (trading him could also have been an option as a big expiring).

Now looking at this season, Steve gave the starting 5 way too long of a leash, along with Draymond's antics. I thought it was clear pretty early that the starters needed an infusion of athleticism, but it took months for guys like Kuminga/TJD to start getting big minutes. It's unfortunately been a slow-to-react situation, rather than seeing the forest from the trees and planning accordingly. With an aging core, you always need to be improving, and if you don't make a trade for a young guy, you need to play the ones you have.

CDM_Stats wrote:

Nvnervous45 wrote:Like you said, the one path is proven (klay) the other is not (moody). Anyone expecting klay or moody to replace the old klay is crazy. Moody could possibly do the defensive work and klay the shooting, but that is still two players filling one role and not simultaneously. That's a huge problem.

I think its only a huge problem if we're trying to win the exact same way we have in the past, because yes - there's no going back to what worked in the past. Curry's older, there's less veteran talent on the team, Klay's really a fringe starter that needs to be protected from himself, the young players all have limitations that will prevent them from jumping into top 2-3 roles - Podz (scoring), JK (shooting/defense), Moody (offense), TJD (team defense/limited offense)

So the thing to do, or the thing that should have been done, is to look to replace that formerly positive impact with something new. A lot of us latched on to the team being more defense-based. Kerr responded by entirely ignoring that and putting some of the worst defensive units we could throw out, trying to jump start our offense. It didn't work and now the team is in the 9th seed and still just hoping/praying that Klay can be pre-Covid Klay - and not just be that Klay, but be consistently good, which is something he didnt do even at his peak

Just doesnt seem like much of a plan. Very phoned-in

We were trying to rekindle that old magic early this season and it clearly didn't work. Then the Dray suspension and Deki's death put things in a weird place. Since we got past those things, this team has gone 26-11 with a top 5 net rating. I don't have access to the tracking data but I would imagine it would point to things changing drastically.

My guess is we have a top 10 defense since late Jan and probably even better after the all star break. The coaching staff is clearly leaning into the Dray, Wigs, TJD frontcourt at the expense of a more offensive minded option like JK. We can say they should have played TJD earlier in the year, and I would agree, but we also don't know the strides TJD took to be a reliable front court option. I assume he improved significantly since early in the year as young players tend to do.

Do you really think Mike Brown was so instrumental in terms of the team's defensive identify, rotations, and use of advanced analytics? I can see one of those (probably the defense) but to say he was the driving force in all 3 areas seems a bit much.

DonaldSanders wrote:I agree with watch1958 and michael that Moody should have gotten more minutes period. I do recognize this team is a bit tough to decide who to give minutes to -- it's a pretty deep team, but one without a lot of top end talent.

CDM hits the nail on the head, Klay looks like the antidote to our lack of top end talent when he's in a groove... but when he's not, Steve needs to recognize that and lean into our defensive players like Moody. I think we all pray for as much en fuego Klaymaker as possible

Despite Moody struggling at times, he gets a decent amount of easy buckets in 'found money' type situations he gets through hustle and effort. This boosts his TS% to .579, Klay is at .575. Klay's 3P threat has him worth more on offense in general, but Moody isn't as far behind as it seems just from watching. Moody at 36.1% from 3, that's not amazing but considering his defense is fine. I wish he got longer stints this season, that period where he was starting he finally got a chance and looked great.

The thing for me is that Moody needs minutes as well, to feel confident and get his shot grooved, and when he was given regular minutes in the play-offs last year absolutely delivered when a player most needs to deliver and had fairly stellar conventional stats as well; I rely on CDM/FNQ for deeper statistics.

My view of both Kerr and Klay pretty much coincided with CDM’s for most of this season. Just at this point in time the argument from those with the opposing point of view that the team needs a second shooter/volume scorer and that Klay is the only likely candidate is looking pretty good though. I am hoping that his recent form is not just variance, and that he had a moment of self realisation himself that he wasn’t the old Klay, which a statement from him when he was sent to the bench seemed to indicate ie that no longer being one of the best players in the NBA as a starter was difficult to contemplate but that Manu Ginobli was a great and important player as a 6th man. Playing less minutes is very likely beneficial as well given his injuries and age.

The way Kerr was playing Klay most of the year, including for 35 minutes a game and as a closer when defense was the major requirement remains inexplicable to me. Perhaps he has a blind spot for Klay with whom he likely has a strong personal friendship, and maybe those who have speculated he was more interested in helping Klay get his next contract than the overall success of the team are not completely to be dismissed.

Kerr does seem to have an obsession with small ball which also played out when he coached the US FIBA team. Sure it worked during the dynasty but that involved long, strong and smart guys who were mostly also young and played great defense, with the small ball dearth squad famed for defense more than anything else. The 3 and 4 guard line-ups involving small, slow and old guards he played this season remain crazy imo unless employed sparingly and situationally and definitely not as part of closing units.

So I don’t consider you, I and CDM different overly, I agree with more Moody, particularly when defense is what is required and 25 minutes for Klay adjusted to how he is performing. Imo Klay who is usually tired by then shouldn’t close at all except if scoring is required, he may still be among the best options in the entire NBA for a clutch 3.

If the team gets bounced by the Lakers in the play-in any argument that Kerr was bringing Klay along carefully to peak at just the right time for the team is null and void imo btw. They lost more than a few games at the death despite significant leads late in games to which Klay playing no defense and chucking contributed, again imo, and should comfortably have a seeding well above a play-in position.

They managed 5-0 without Klay; three of those games were against good teams.

CDM_Stats wrote:

michaelm wrote:I was on the Moody train myself and still am, he should be getting more minutes now regardless and I can only imagine Kerr has some strange prejudice against him.

I do think the team needs a second scorer/shooter, and those who argued Klay was the only likely candidate are looking to have been proven correct just now, admittedly from the evidence of only a few games. I still wouldn’t play Klay more than 30 minutes a game, preferably only 25 minutes, and definitely not on the closing unit for defensive possessions.

I thought he was alright in 2022 btw, particularly in the finals, but perhaps the short season he played aided his oft injured and somewhat old body.

I dont have any problem with the idea that Moody isnt anything special, more talking about the extreme sides on this Klay thing. A couple of games ago, he was blamed for an end of the game play where he did just fine.. and on the other side, people are justifying how Kerr's rotations, specifically re: Klay, have been all season because of a mini hot streak in April

Even without data, the Klay eye-test shows a guy who's extremely inconsistent and should not be written in ink to help the team any given night. But the issue is that Kerr, and maybe fans, see there only being one path to victory, the same one they've used in the past. And if the team truly had that mentality, 2022 never happens, because it required a massive defensive shift - as well as one away from the offense - to win. Fast-forward 2 years and one less Mike Brown, and the team is now going away from that idea and going back to the one where we need to offensively overwhelm teams to win. Ok, but that means the team's fate lives and dies by Klay's streakiness, which doesnt seem like a good bet for the playoffs.. especially since the only playoff team he's had success against recently is the Lakers, the 10 seed

I made another post in reply to DonaldSanders which involved some of your points, but completely agree the identity of the team has always been defensive, even KD played more defense when he was on the team and was effective defensively. I have no idea how Kerr ever considered that even the likes of Curry and Klay could overwhelm teams offensively with Klay older and post injury and Curry in his mid 30s, and CP3 even older and further past his peak as a scorer/shooter for that matter.

Those 3 and 4 guard line-ups shouldn’t work in this or any other universe, particularly as closing units.

Let's put this in perspective - Klay, two major surgeries and at 6'6" is excited when he gets a dunk. He can't defend smalls anymore and he's too small to defend bigs. He is no longer an elite shooter.

If the Warriors bring back Klay it will be the final nail in the Curry years. There will be constant pressure to have him starting again.

Without Klay the Warriors a much more athletic team....and IMO...Moody would have no problem filling in from 3.

Klay as a bench scorer for some other team.....not done. Klay on the Warriors.... DONE.

Klay is only half done. Turn him over and cook the other side.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/klay-thompson-4th-quarter

Klay is avg 37% and 29% on threes in the 4th. He has been the issue of our inability to close.

ILOVEIT wrote:Let's put this in perspective - Klay, two major surgeries and at 6'6" is excited when he gets a dunk. He can't defend smalls anymore and he's too small to defend bigs. He is no longer an elite shooter.

If the Warriors bring back Klay it will be the final nail in the Curry years. There will be constant pressure to have him starting again.

Without Klay the Warriors a much more athletic team....and IMO...Moody would have no problem filling in from 3.

Klay as a bench scorer for some other team.....not done. Klay on the Warriors.... DONE.

I mean you're right but Curry isn't gonna let Lacob just not pay Klay.

The question every year is how much support the core needs to win.

They’d rather have veterans than kids. Problem is, their salaries restrict how much help they can get. Can’t bitch about giving kids playing time, but then expect Klay to get a big payday.

Grayson Allen just signed 4/70. I don't think Katy is much better if at all.