How many HRs should Bonds actually have?

pspot · Post #1 » by **pspot** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 6:08 pm

Not sure if this has been posted before but

Just for arguments sake I was thinking about how many HR's Bonds would have if you took his average of HR/games played before the 73 HR year, then mulitiplied that by how many games played he had in that year and since

683

2,183 GP between 86 and 00'
494 HRs in that same period

avg approx HR 23% of his games

He's played 822 games from 01 to present

822 x .23 = 189

189 + 494 = 683

Also noting that this is sustaining his career avg late into his career, which in 'most' athletes is definetely not true, and for sure would not see an increase like we have with Bonds

If you do it as an avg of AB, its even less 648 total

Post #2 » by **Basketball Jesus** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 6:40 pm

Pretty interesting take from a year ago:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/st ... uby/060512

pspot · Post #3 » by **pspot** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 7:18 pm

Good read thanks

Post #4 » by **FNQ** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 9:04 pm

Stats are kinda skewed... say Bonds doesn't go on roids and the HR rampage, he'd probably see more pitches, get walked less, therefore more chances to hit HR. While I'm certain he wouldn't be at 759, I'd be fairly sure he'd be in the 700s by now.

Abraham Lincoln · Post #5 » by **Abraham Lincoln** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 9:35 pm

I'd say 600.

SwiLL2432 · Post #6 » by **SwiLL2432** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:44 pm

He would still be looked at as one of the best baseball players of all time. Everything is up in the air right now...

High 5 · Post #7 » by **High 5** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:54 pm

You have to factor in how he would have lost less power with age instead of gained.

Post #8 » by **Da Schwab** » Thu Aug 16, 2007 11:34 pm

If you take that 73 season out of the equation and substituted that with a typical "Barry" season, I'd say he'd be around 720-730 right now.

backer55 · Post #9 » by **backer55** » Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:44 am

gunnabdaschwab09 wrote:If you take that 73 season out of the equation and substituted that with a typical "Barry" season, I'd say he'd be around 720-730 right now.

Why take the 73 season out? Why not add in several other seasons with 60-70 Homers? Bonds has thru his career amased over a 1000 more Base on Balls than Strikeouts. In modern day ball, that is unheard of! Yea, he dinged about 45 or so each year after 2001 and the 73 season, but if he was pitched to... could very easily have 4-5 seasons with 60 or more. :crazy:

How many should he have? because of all the extra walks, i'm going to add 80. that would be---839---:bowdown:

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Abraham Lincoln · Post #10 » by **Abraham Lincoln** » Fri Aug 17, 2007 4:18 am

backer55 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-

Why take the 73 season out? Why not add in several other seasons with 60-70 Homers? Bonds has thru his career amased over a 1000 more Base on Balls than Strikeouts. In modern day ball, that is unheard of! Yea, he dinged about 45 or so each year after 2001 and the 73 season, but if he was pitched to... could very easily have 4-5 seasons with 60 or more.

How many should he have? because of all the extra walks, i'm going to add 80. that would be---839---:bowdown:

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Delusional to the fullest extent.

Bonds got better in the latter stage of his career, something that never happens to anyone. There is evidence that he cheated during this time. His career is tainted, plain and simple.

The-Rejuvenated · Post #11 » by **The-Rejuvenated** » Fri Aug 17, 2007 5:20 am

I think he'd have around 600 something. Maybe like 630 or something.

backer55 · Post #12 » by **backer55** » Fri Aug 17, 2007 5:23 am

Abraham Lincoln wrote:Delusional to the fullest extent.

Bonds got better in the latter stage of his career, something that never happens to anyone. There is evidence that he cheated during this time. His career is tainted, plain and simple.

Bonds got better...As he matured he implemented a very strict workout routine, became more selective at the plate, and with his increased knowledge of hitting, yes, he improved.

Something that never happens to anyone... are you sure of that or just useing it because you heard that someplace?

There is evidence that he cheated... Not enough aparently, the Feds been after him big time for years. Lots of time and your tax money spent. For what? To try and prove that he did what we already know hundreds of other MLB players did in the same time period? Enough already!

His career is tainted, pure and simple... To you maybe. The Media searched far and wide for dirt or trash talk on Bonds during his chase. They got a couple hits from oldtimers and such. Almost to the Man, every MLB player and Coach, when asked about Barry Bonds, had nothing but great praise and respect for what Bonds has done and what he continues to do.

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WEFFPIM · Post #13 » by **WEFFPIM** » Fri Aug 17, 2007 5:43 am

High 600s. The man's still a great hitter.

34Celtic · Post #14 » by **34Celtic** » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:12 pm

The real question still has not been answered. How many home runs could I have hit if I juiced?

pspot · Post #15 » by **pspot** » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:48 pm

34Celtic wrote:The real question still has not been answered. How many home runs could I have hit if I juiced?

about 10% more

Bonds would have been up there, and would have been considered one of the greatest ever, but he cheated and he's now the best statistically but I think he sold a lot for that

backer55 · Post #16 » by **backer55** » Fri Aug 17, 2007 8:59 pm

For those that think my estimate of 839 adjusted homers for Barry is too high, check out this link. Ultra did his math far better than my attempt.

http://community.foxsports.com/blogs/UltraMegaOK1988

In any event, if Bonds played in a pitcher friendlyHome Park and was not walked intentionally or otherwise, far more than the average amount, for fear of what opposing managers know he can do, he would have a lot more HR's than he has now.

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Post #17 » by **Da Schwab** » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:21 am

backer55 wrote:Why take the 73 season out? Why not add in several other seasons with 60-70 Homers? Bonds has thru his career amased over a 1000 more Base on Balls than Strikeouts. In modern day ball, that is unheard of! Yea, he dinged about 45 or so each year after 2001 and the 73 season, but if he was pitched to... could very easily have 4-5 seasons with 60 or more.

How many should he have? because of all the extra walks, i'm going to add 80. that would be---839---:bowdown:

Are you the same guy from that YouTube video from the #756 thread (I'm too lazy to check)?

If not, are you one of these three people:

Barry, himself?
Greg Anderson?
Victor Conte?

I've enjoyed watching Barry catch and break the record as much as you, but c'mon dude, 839?

Post #18 » by **FNQ** » Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:22 am

backer55 wrote:For those that think my estimate of 839 adjusted homers for Barry is too high, check out this link. Ultra did his math far better than my attempt.

http://community.foxsports.com/blogs/UltraMegaOK1988

In any event, if Bonds played in a pitcher friendlyHome Park and was not walked intentionally or otherwise, far more than the average amount, for fear of what opposing managers know he can do, he would have a lot more HR's than he has now.

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So you're saying if he played in Colorado instead of SF, he would have hit more HRs...

You are going to find yourself in a lonely place thinking that Bonds not taking steroids would have RAISED his HR count. The argument is dead to start - if Bonds doesnt roid, lets say he continues at his 35-50 HR a year pace. He never gets the 73, never has those incredibly big years. His HRs drop off, but he sees more plate appearances. At best, you could justify he might be exactly where he is now, since the last 2 seasons where his body broke down could have been because of just the roids. Or it could have just been, his body naturally breaking down. Thanks to Bonds, we'll never know.

But there is one thing for certain - crediting him with an extra 80 HRs if he never took steroids is quite possibly the funniest thing I've ever seen on this site. If he was going to hit that many HRs without roids, heres a question - WHY DID HE TAKE THEM?!

EDIT: BTW that article is extremely poorly written, it doesnt take into account Bonds' injuries, and the fact that if he was still hitting HRs at the pace he was, that he would still be walked quite a bit, but not at the exaggerated pace he was the past 5 years. Very, very poorly written.

backer55 · Post #19 » by **backer55** » Sat Aug 18, 2007 1:01 am

I didn't bring steroids into it. I don't KNOW FOR CERTAIN that Bonds didn't do anything other that what he told the Grand Jury... Aparently neither does anyone else. Rubbing some creams on your knee or shoulder may not even be a factor. The question was "how many home runs should Bonds actually have?" His home Ballparks, particulary right field, have proven to be one of the toughest places to hit a Hr. 120 intentional walks in one year alone were more than many teams totals. Between the park disavantage and the walks, i believe he would have more HR's and took my best guess as to how many. If that is now allowed, Imagine a picture of my hand with one finger sticking up.

Did you read the link that i posted? If not please do. Ultra has much more data compiled than i do and does a creditable job of getting at what he considers to be Bonds adjusted number, for the exact same question, 1056. Read it and the comments of their bloggers. They also seem to think the # would be raised upward, at least for the question asked. Yes they have some Bonds haters there also but they seem to do a better job than most at forming their own opinions.

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backer55 · Post #20 » by **backer55** » Sat Aug 18, 2007 1:22 am

gunnabdaschwab09 wrote:-= original quote snipped I've enjoyed watching Barry catch and break the record as much as you, but c'mon dude, 839?

None of the above. Just a Ex Jock SF Fan that was long ago convicted wrongfully for a minor offence. It forever changed the way i look at accusations.
Glad you enjoyed the Chase!

839? yep, don't believe it? I'm not the only one. Read This;
http://community.foxsports.com/blogs/UltraMegaOK1988

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