Teoscar traded to Mariners

[LBJKB24MJ23]

Anyone that doesn't see this as a cost-cutting move is delusional. No doubt we have spent over the past few years (not so wisely) but the tides are turning. We are a worse ball club than we were yesterday. There is still time to improve but the loss of Teo (and likely Stipling) is going to hurt.

i don't think it needed to be said.

Jays are a top 10 payroll team. these are decisions that need to be made. $40M difference between the Jays (@ #10 ) to the Mets (#1)

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

Again, this is nothing against Aktins. If he was tasked to reduce payroll because owners said so, he's handcuffed to do so. but then again, what would have been a realistic return for Teo? considering even I wouldn't even re-sign him to a large contract.

it seems that the Jays offered him something but it wasn't in the range he believes he was worth.

[Parataxis]

Anyone that doesn't see this as a cost-cutting move is delusional. No doubt we have spent over the past few years (not so wisely) but the tides are turning. We are a worse ball club than we were yesterday. There is still time to improve but the loss of Teo (and likely Stipling) is going to hurt.

i don't think it needed to be said.

Jays are a top 10 payroll team. these are decisions that need to be made. $40M difference between the Jays (@ #10 ) to the Mets (#1)

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

Again, this is nothing against Aktins. If he was tasked to reduce payroll because owners said so, he's handcuffed to do so. but then again, what would have been a realistic return for Teo? considering even I wouldn't even re-sign him to a large contract.

it seems that the Jays offered him something but it wasn't in the range he believes he was worth.

Realistically, the starting price for Teo should have been something that would be roughly equivallent to the draft pick compensation that we'd have gotten had we given him a QO next year.

And we got that + more.

[Schad]

Anyone that doesn't see this as a cost-cutting move is delusional. No doubt we have spent over the past few years (not so wisely) but the tides are turning. We are a worse ball club than we were yesterday. There is still time to improve but the loss of Teo (and likely Stipling) is going to hurt.

i don't think it needed to be said.

Jays are a top 10 payroll team. these are decisions that need to be made. $40M difference between the Jays (@ #10 ) to the Mets (#1)

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

Again, this is nothing against Aktins. If he was tasked to reduce payroll because owners said so, he's handcuffed to do so. but then again, what would have been a realistic return for Teo? considering even I wouldn't even re-sign him to a large contract.

it seems that the Jays offered him something but it wasn't in the range he believes he was worth.

Spotrac doesn't take into account arbitration players...in their eyes, Vlad, Bo etc are currently making zero dollars, which is why we're so low. Cot's is a better site for projected salaries because it uses the BP arb projections, and we have an awful lot of arb-guys who are going to get paid big bucks:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/

After trading Teo, our projected salary (with no additions) is $182m. That'll drop slightly when Tapia and his $5m projection in gone, but we're very likely to be close to a top 5 payroll, if not have one outright.

[wamco]

Soo (maybe include extra parts) and trade :

Moreno for carroll
Kirk for nootbar and Montgomery
Sign rodon
Kikuchi to pen
Extend Jansen
Dfa/trade thornton, Richards, Kay, hatch, merryweather

[wamco]

Anyone that doesn't see this as a cost-cutting move is delusional. No doubt we have spent over the past few years (not so wisely) but the tides are turning. We are a worse ball club than we were yesterday. There is still time to improve but the loss of Teo (and likely Stipling) is going to hurt.

i don't think it needed to be said.

Jays are a top 10 payroll team. these are decisions that need to be made. $40M difference between the Jays (@ #10 ) to the Mets (#1)

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

Again, this is nothing against Aktins. If he was tasked to reduce payroll because owners said so, he's handcuffed to do so. but then again, what would have been a realistic return for Teo? considering even I wouldn't even re-sign him to a large contract.

it seems that the Jays offered him something but it wasn't in the range he believes he was worth.

Spotrac doesn't take into account arbitration players...in their eyes, Vlad, Bo etc are currently making zero dollars, which is why we're so low. Cot's is a better site for projected salaries because it uses the BP arb projections, and we have an awful lot of arb-guys who are going to get paid big bucks:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/

After trading Teo, our projected salary (with no additions) is $182m. That'll drop slightly when Tapia and his $5m projection in gone, but we're very likely to be close to a top 5 payroll, if not have one outright.

Best breakdown I am looking at shows is at 182 without tapia. Put us at 203m all in as of right now in regards to the 233m “cap”.

Cut Richards and thornton for another 2.5m to spend. Should be plenty along with catcher trade capital

[Schad]

Best breakdown I am looking at shows is at 182 without tapia. Put us at 203m all in as of right now in regards to the 233m “cap”.

Cut Richards and thornton for another 2.5m to spend. Should be plenty along with catcher trade capital

Definitely, there are some little savings along the way. But any discussion of our 'cost cutting' necessarily has to include the fact that our roster from last season will be way more expensive this year, despite Springer/Kikuchi receiving less, because Vlad is due a big arb raise, Berrios' extension kicks in, and Bo/Romano/Santi are all reaching arb. We have more money going on the books than we have coming off, and we still have holes that we're going to need to fill, mostly a rotation spot and potentially two outfielders. We're going to vastly exceed our previous all-time high for payroll.

I wouldn't at all be surprised if we sign Masataka Yoshida to play RF. He was rumoured to be a target for both us and the Mariners, and the Mariners' need for a corner OF just diminished significantly. Yoshida's a risk because he hasn't played in North America and he's already 29, but he is a left-handed corner OF who gets on base and has some pop, which happens to be exactly the profile we're seeking, and Seiya Suzuki's success with the Cubs should alleviate some fears there.

[agkagk]

Soo (maybe include extra parts) and trade :


Dfa/trade thornton, Richards, Kay, hatch, merryweather

reading these names makes me wonder if the luck warm response to this trade comes from our managements lack of history in plucking any diamonds out of the rough or making any shrewd trades.

like i cant think of a single player they signed out of the scrapheap or any low key asset picked up in trade that amounted to anything.

the closest i can think of that could be considered a cue, is them picking up merrifield for a bag of chips.

just curious if anyone can think of anyone that im missing that fits the bill?

[Schad]

reading these names makes me wonder if the luck warm response to this trade comes from our managements lack of history in plucking any diamonds out of the rough or making any shrewd trades.

like i cant think of a single player they signed out of the scrapheap or any low key asset picked up in trade that amounted to anything.

the closest i can think of that could be considered a cue, is them picking up merrifield for a bag of chips.

just curious if anyone can think of anyone that im missing that fits the bill?

We traded basically nothing for Robbie Ray, re-signed him to a dirt-cheap one year contract, and he won the Cy Young. Seems like that'd qualify in a big way.

Also, Teo himself was acquired for Francisco Liriano, who had an ERA of 5.88 at the time we traded him. That worked out decently.

[agkagk]

reading these names makes me wonder if the luck warm response to this trade comes from our managements lack of history in plucking any diamonds out of the rough or making any shrewd trades.

like i cant think of a single player they signed out of the scrapheap or any low key asset picked up in trade that amounted to anything.

the closest i can think of that could be considered a cue, is them picking up merrifield for a bag of chips.

just curious if anyone can think of anyone that im missing that fits the bill?

We traded basically nothing for Robbie Ray, re-signed him to a dirt-cheap one year contract, and he won the Cy Young. Seems like that'd qualify in a big way.

Also, Teo himself was acquired for Francisco Liriano, who had an ERA of 5.88 at the time we traded him. That worked out decently.

Ya but what have you done for me lately?

No seriously, thanks for the trip down memory lane. Robbie ray and teo would definitely qualify as huge finds.

[Cyrus]

While I think Springer bring more and has more to do our success when he is on the field (key determination there). Wonder if we would have been better off with Teo for 150 or so games (At springer salary), or Springer for 100-110 games, knowing 40-50 games he'll be injuried or DH'd, etc.

I mean it's not even question springer is clutch, and is better defensively, but Springer is also way more injury prone. Was thinking not only do we need 1 OF, but likely need 2.

[bluerap23]

George Springer money, so is doubtful and possibly not wise. I’m thinking more Conforto or Brantley.

Willing to be my left nut we will hear about how jays had second best offer. This FO is really good at floating that stuff.

We've spent more in free agency in the past couple seasons than almost any team in baseball, heh. 13 FA contracts of $100m+ signed in the past two years, and two of them were by the Jays. We also extended a player for $131m. Whatever criticisms one wants to levy at this FO, "they don't spend on megadeals" can't rationally be one.

I never said they don't go after mega deals. I only said that they are good at planting stories about how they were close to getting this guy or that guy. If I wasn't too lazy I could find at least 3 stories about how we came in second for this or that FA.

This looks like one of those cases. They are clearly in cost cutting mode due to past mistakes and they will not be adding any significant FA's. I'm not even suggesting that they should be adding a significant free agent, just that this is part of the "sell" on this bad trade.

[bluerap23]

Anyone that doesn't see this as a cost-cutting move is delusional. No doubt we have spent over the past few years (not so wisely) but the tides are turning. We are a worse ball club than we were yesterday. There is still time to improve but the loss of Teo (and likely Stipling) is going to hurt.

Our payroll is going to rise substantially. Like, with Teo (and without Stripling or any additions at all) we were projected to have a payroll of $195m, the 4th-highest in baseball.

For everyone who inexplicably still believes that the Jays are cheap, and for some reason believes that the only thing holding us back is that we aren't lighting another $20m on fire: we're going to have one of the highest payrolls in all of baseball with or without him. They've already indicated that we're pursuing expensive free agents. But keeping Teo in the final year of his deal, given that we are a baseball team and baseball teams should never fixate on a single season because the playoffs are a crapshoot, just didn't make very much sense for us. He's going to get a contract in the 2023 offseason that some team is almost definitely going to regret, because players like Teo rarely age gracefully.

On spending free agent money unwisely: no ****! Most free agent spending is unwise. Free agents are terrible, terrible value in the modern era, because they are older players, and older players are not as good as younger players. And trying to make up for our free agent megadeals by signing more free agent megadeals is like chasing losses at the roulette table.

Again you are quoting me with a conclusion I did not make.

For everyone who inexplicably still believes that the Jays are cheap

I never said the organization was cheap. I am critical because I don't believe that Shatkins is doing a good job of managing our budget. They have overspent in some cases and misspent in others. Now they have to cost cut to account for those missteps.

They've already indicated that we're pursuing expensive free agents.

I am prepared to eat crow if they actually sign someone of substance (don't care about dollar value). I expect, they will be bargain hunting and will replace Teo with the OF equivalent of Tanner Raork. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am.

[bluerap23]

Clearing future salary obligations for flexibility and in order to extend Vladdy.

That is exactly how it will get "explained" but make no mistake this has nothing to do with Vladdy and everything to do with the 2023 budget.

A non-tender candidate who eats up too many dollars while entering his twilight years for 1. bullpen help 2. prospect capital and 3. immediate salary flexibility/versatility to alter or add to the 2023/24/25/26+ team.

Teoscar was a single declining asset sure to create a multiplier of constraints on the Jays' salary structure. We got a mix of everything back. Immediate help. Future lottery card. Salary flexibility. Wish all 3 could be rated 10/10/10,, but I'll take 7/7/7.

A non-tender candidate? Are you serious?!?
His Twilight years? He is 29 years old.

This is utter nonsense.

We traded a middle of the order bat for a low-leverage (even a good one) reliever.

I am completely floored that so many do not see this.

[Schad]

I never said they don't go after mega deals. I only said that they are good at planting stories about how they were close to getting this guy or that guy. If I wasn't too lazy I could find at least 3 stories about how we came in second for this or that FA.

This looks like one of those cases. They are clearly in cost cutting mode due to past mistakes and they will not be adding any significant FA's. I'm not even suggesting that they should be adding a significant free agent, just that this is part of the "sell" on this bad trade.

This really makes no sense. They pretend to chase major free agents...except for the times when they actually signed those major free agents. They are cost-cutting despite all evidence to the contrary, and will not be adding any significant FAs because...you think they won't be making any significant FA additions.

Alternative theory: they have chased a lot of significant FAs (more than I would prefer, actually! FA is a bad way to build a team these days!). Some of those players signed, including some really major ones. Some of those players did not. Having some players sign and others not sign is exactly what you would expect from a team that chases a lot of significant FAs, because you're never going to be consistently the highest bidder unless you're grossly overpaying on a regular basis.

[Schad]

A non-tender candidate? Are you serious?!?
His Twilight years? He is 29 years old.

This is utter nonsense.

We traded a middle of the order bat for a low-leverage (even a good one) reliever.

I am completely floored that so many do not see this.

Think he means that he wasn't going to be tendered a QO after this season, and there's a decent chance that he's right. Teo's 2022 season was right on the fringe of being worth QOing. Any step back, even a small one, and he isn't worth it.

Swanson isn't a 'low-leverage reliever'. He was one of the best relievers in baseball last year. He will pitch in high-leverage situations, and there is no reason to believe he will not pitch well in them. He was also worth 1.7 fWAR last season, while Teo was worth 2.4. So on 2022 production, we sacrificed 0.7 wins in a single season in order to get two additional years of team control, plus $12m in additional spending that we can undertake this season. If you believe that Swanson's 2022 season was not a fluke -- and he was in the upper echelon of relievers in basically every category -- that's actually really good value, even taking money completely out of the equation.

[brwnman]

Anyone that doesn't see this as a cost-cutting move is delusional. No doubt we have spent over the past few years (not so wisely) but the tides are turning. We are a worse ball club than we were yesterday. There is still time to improve but the loss of Teo (and likely Stipling) is going to hurt.

i don't think it needed to be said.

Jays are a top 10 payroll team. these are decisions that need to be made. $40M difference between the Jays (@ #10 ) to the Mets (#1)

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

Again, this is nothing against Aktins. If he was tasked to reduce payroll because owners said so, he's handcuffed to do so. but then again, what would have been a realistic return for Teo? considering even I wouldn't even re-sign him to a large contract.

it seems that the Jays offered him something but it wasn't in the range he believes he was worth.

Realistically, the starting price for Teo should have been something that would be roughly equivallent to the draft pick compensation that we'd have gotten had we given him a QO next year.

And we got that + more.

I would disagree with we got more than the draft pick compensation. I think you have to look at the opportunity cost of 1 year of Teo + draft pick as the equivalent metric, and I don't think Swanson is that guy. He had a great year, his underlying stats say he should regress a little bit but still be a quality reliever. However, by the same token, we all agree that relief pitching is volatile and varies year to year. I'm of the opinion that you wait out the market for RP, and go bargain bin shopping near the end of FA; and then eventually solidify your pen at the trade deadline. The Jays haven't done well in this department the last few years.

As for the trade, I believe once again we got less value than the player going the other way. It's a trade with future implications (you hope), and not a straight salary dump. If it's purely made from the standpoint of a salary dump, then the team has not improved, and will probably take a couple of steps back. And if it is was just to dump salary, we should have gotten more prospects back as opposed to a relief pitcher.

I do think this trade was made with the intention of extending at least one of Bo or Vlad this offseason, and they need to free up money to sign other short-term contracts for the next 2-3 seasons. I don't see the Jays signing an OF long-term this offseason, I think it's more likely they trade one of their catchers for an OF, and/or take a one-year flier on a guy like Bellinger. Overall, don't like the deal as I thought we could have gotten more for Teo, or simply let him play out the year and leave with a comp pick next year.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

i don't think it needed to be said.

Jays are a top 10 payroll team. these are decisions that need to be made. $40M difference between the Jays (@ #10 ) to the Mets (#1)

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

Again, this is nothing against Aktins. If he was tasked to reduce payroll because owners said so, he's handcuffed to do so. but then again, what would have been a realistic return for Teo? considering even I wouldn't even re-sign him to a large contract.

it seems that the Jays offered him something but it wasn't in the range he believes he was worth.

Realistically, the starting price for Teo should have been something that would be roughly equivallent to the draft pick compensation that we'd have gotten had we given him a QO next year.

And we got that + more.

I would disagree with we got more than the draft pick compensation. I think you have to look at the opportunity cost of 1 year of Teo + draft pick as the equivalent metric, and I don't think Swanson is that guy. He had a great year, his underlying stats say he should regress a little bit but still be a quality reliever. However, by the same token, we all agree that relief pitching is volatile and varies year to year. I'm of the opinion that you wait out the market for RP, and go bargain bin shopping near the end of FA; and then eventually solidify your pen at the trade deadline. The Jays haven't done well in this department the last few years.

As for the trade, I believe once again we got less value than the player going the other way. It's a trade with future implications (you hope), and not a straight salary dump. If it's purely made from the standpoint of a salary dump, then the team has not improved, and will probably take a couple of steps back. And if it is was just to dump salary, we should have gotten more prospects back as opposed to a relief pitcher.

I do think this trade was made with the intention of extending at least one of Bo or Vlad this offseason, and they need to free up money to sign other short-term contracts for the next 2-3 seasons. I don't see the Jays signing an OF long-term this offseason, I think it's more likely they trade one of their catchers for an OF, and/or take a one-year flier on a guy like Bellinger. Overall, don't like the deal as I thought we could have gotten more for Teo, or simply let him play out the year and leave with a comp pick next year.

you forgot the additonal player we can possibly sign.

[JTT]

i don't think it needed to be said.

Jays are a top 10 payroll team. these are decisions that need to be made. $40M difference between the Jays (@ #10 ) to the Mets (#1)

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

Again, this is nothing against Aktins. If he was tasked to reduce payroll because owners said so, he's handcuffed to do so. but then again, what would have been a realistic return for Teo? considering even I wouldn't even re-sign him to a large contract.

it seems that the Jays offered him something but it wasn't in the range he believes he was worth.

Realistically, the starting price for Teo should have been something that would be roughly equivallent to the draft pick compensation that we'd have gotten had we given him a QO next year.

And we got that + more.

I would disagree with we got more than the draft pick compensation. I think you have to look at the opportunity cost of 1 year of Teo + draft pick as the equivalent metric, and I don't think Swanson is that guy. He had a great year, his underlying stats say he should regress a little bit but still be a quality reliever. However, by the same token, we all agree that relief pitching is volatile and varies year to year. I'm of the opinion that you wait out the market for RP, and go bargain bin shopping near the end of FA; and then eventually solidify your pen at the trade deadline. The Jays haven't done well in this department the last few years.

As for the trade, I believe once again we got less value than the player going the other way. It's a trade with future implications (you hope), and not a straight salary dump. If it's purely made from the standpoint of a salary dump, then the team has not improved, and will probably take a couple of steps back. And if it is was just to dump salary, we should have gotten more prospects back as opposed to a relief pitcher.

I do think this trade was made with the intention of extending at least one of Bo or Vlad this offseason, and they need to free up money to sign other short-term contracts for the next 2-3 seasons. I don't see the Jays signing an OF long-term this offseason, I think it's more likely they trade one of their catchers for an OF, and/or take a one-year flier on a guy like Bellinger. Overall, don't like the deal as I thought we could have gotten more for Teo, or simply let him play out the year and leave with a comp pick next year.

[JTT]

I’m not positive that a 30 year old Teo with a whiff rate of almost 45% on all non fastball pitches and not being a good defender would warrant a qualifying offer and certainly not a big extension. Guys who rely on hitting only fastballs (at which Teo is one of the best) probably won’t age that well.

Also it should be noted that Rafael Montero (1.5 war) just signed for 34.5 over 3. About 1.5 for Swanson (1.7 war plus three year control) saves the team $10m in an equivalent reliever. Free agent relievers will be very expensive this year

This constitutes a 25 million dollar saving to fill in the. Teo+reliever = Swanson + ? formula with the added bonus of team control and a prospect that will fall into our top 10. With that money, we should be able to fill holes.

[Schad]

I would disagree with we got more than the draft pick compensation.

For what it's worth: the prospect we received alone is roughly equivalent to the draft pick compensation. Fangraphs has him at a 40+ FV; for the 2022 draft, players of that FV were rated 46th through 64th in their rankings, which is above where the comp pick would fall.

Granted, there are some additional benefits (through the bonus pool) to having comp picks, which is why I like them. But I honestly don't think it's arguable: the expected value of Swanson and Macko vastly exceeds the expected value of a Comp 2 pick.