Bears 2024: 5.0 It's Caleb Williams time

[Peelboy]

I'm getting irrationally optimistic. The one thing that gives me a bit of concern is O line, but it realistically should be at least solid. Yr2 Wright and full offseason Davis should anchor the right side. Braxton is serviceable and could step up. Teven needs health. C is questionable, but going from a black hole to average between Bates/Shelton will be a big deal. There's also some depth on the interior w the other of Bates/Shelton, the UI kid, and maybe even Kiran. I'd love a post-6/1 cut interior lineman who's an upgrade but short term (even at high salary).

But if you have a decent O line, the prospects are ridiculous. Yr 1 if Caleb just does the easy stuff, he should have guys open and a run game. And a full season of Sweat plus yr2 Dexter should make guys like Walker more effective. And if Caleb is just average in Yr1, imagine Yr2 with these same weapons, plus maybe an upgrade at C and DL (in a deep D draft and 3 picks in top 64). In that scenario assume DJ is resigned early and Keenan gets a short term extension as well. Could be a SB contender in yr2.

[Dresden]

Fine, but you (collectively) aren’t including some $45-50 million in cap in that victory lap. The vets are not part of the draft. Instead of picking players, you decided to spend a ton of money on good players.

The Poles hype cycle reminds me a lot of the AKME hype cycle after one year.

That said, I'm incredibly excited about where the Bears are, even if we mostly backed into that position through dumb luck.

Making the trades for Sweat and Allen wasn''t dumb luck. Picking up Everett and the additions to the O line wasn't dumb luck. Signing Swift wasn't dumb luck. Trading the pick last year and getting Darnell Wright, DJ Moore and the picks that became Stevenson wasn't dumb luck. Brining in Shane Waldron wasn't dumb luck. Without these moves the Bears wouldn't be in nearly as good of shape as they are.

[HearshotKDS]

https://www.thehogsty.com/2020/04/23/the-odds-of-success-for-a-draft-pick-part-4/

This person did this exercise that many are talking about. His findings on whether a pick was 'successful' (4 years of starting in the NFL, which I think is a fair bar)

Success rate by round:
1st round: 70%
2nd round: 49%
3rd round: 29.19%
4th round: 20.30%
5th round: 14.42%
6th round: 8.84%
7th round: 6.40%

To me, 4th round and beyond is pretty silly to expect much. a 1 in 5 chance means in every draft there are 6 quality starters drafted in 32 picks. Everything thinks their team will be one of the 6, but in reality the opposite is true.

I would be curious what these numbers look like if they used # of snaps played versus "starting" for later rounds. Rotational pieces that while not starting can still be extremely important pieces of your team, particularly at DB and the DL. A teams NB is technically not a starter using the hogsty guys definition, but they play 65-75% of snaps on any given team in the NFL - is that an unsuccessful pick? Obviously not. DL is an extremely rotation heavy position as anyone who played ball knows, your DE 3/4 is going to play 35-50% of snaps while not being a starter. Take Dorance Armstrong for example - drafted in the 4th, has been DAL DE3 and put up 21 sacks in the last 3 season as a rotational guy. Is that an unsuccessful 4th round pick? Obviously not. I think a lot of fans take a Maddenesque attitude towards roster building of "just play every snap with the guy with the highest overall rating lol" but the reality is the physical requirement for more than half of the positions require rotation.

[Jeffster81]

Fine, but you (collectively) aren’t including some $45-50 million in cap in that victory lap. The vets are not part of the draft. Instead of picking players, you decided to spend a ton of money on good players.

The Poles hype cycle reminds me a lot of the AKME hype cycle after one year.

That said, I'm incredibly excited about where the Bears are, even if we mostly backed into that position through dumb luck.

Making the trades for Sweat and Allen wasn''t dumb luck. Picking up Everett and the additions to the O line wasn't dumb luck. Signing Swift wasn't dumb luck. Trading the pick last year and getting Darnell Wright, DJ Moore and the picks that became Stevenson wasn't dumb luck. Brining in Shane Waldron wasn't dumb luck. Without these moves the Bears wouldn't be in nearly as good of shape as they are.

Yeah, I hate the term "dumb luck". NE finding an all time great QB in the 6th round is dumb luck. Minnesota Vikings finding an all time great defensive tackle as UDFA (John Randle) was dumb luck. Trading for good players like Sweat and Allen, was practical but expensive moves that most competent GM's should and do make on a yearly basis. I have no complaints (other than Chase Claypool) about what Poles has done over the past year or so.

[molepharmer]

fwiw - Iowa expert and college fb writer, S Dochterman's thoughts on punter T Taylor, et al. He starts at ~27:30

Watch on YouTube

[JohnnyKILLroy]

Although I still disagree with Fleet about Ryan Poles’ rating as a GM (which ranks at good to great imo), I must admit that Fleet’s criticism about Poles was, at the very least, on target about Poles’ tendency to overpay for the guys he wants, and undersell the guys he wants to get rid of. Everyone talks about spending a second rounder on Clayfool, but I’d argue that VJJ was a more obscene reach in the 3rd. Fields was essentially just thrown aside for a sixth round draft pick, right after we tanked the kid’s value.

Why isn’t it that Fields tanked his own value ? He sucks.


At some point it’s on him.

[Dresden]

The Poles hype cycle reminds me a lot of the AKME hype cycle after one year.

That said, I'm incredibly excited about where the Bears are, even if we mostly backed into that position through dumb luck.

Making the trades for Sweat and Allen wasn''t dumb luck. Picking up Everett and the additions to the O line wasn't dumb luck. Signing Swift wasn't dumb luck. Trading the pick last year and getting Darnell Wright, DJ Moore and the picks that became Stevenson wasn't dumb luck. Brining in Shane Waldron wasn't dumb luck. Without these moves the Bears wouldn't be in nearly as good of shape as they are.

Yeah, I hate the term "dumb luck". NE finding an all time great QB in the 6th round is dumb luck. Minnesota Vikings finding an all time great defensive tackle as UDFA (John Randle) was dumb luck. Trading for good players like Sweat and Allen, was practical but expensive moves that most competent GM's should and do make on a yearly basis. I have no complaints (other than Chase Claypool) about what Poles has done over the past year or so.

There's quite a bit of luck in most dynasties. The Chiefs getting Mahomes and him turning out to be as good as he is was a lot of luck. MJ lasting until 3rd in the draft was luck. The 49'ers getting Joe Montana and then Steve Young was a lot of luck. In hindsight you can say they were genius moves, but really no one knows for sure if players will be all time greats. A few do, 99% don't. When you hit that 1%, it makes you look smart, but in fact it's also luck.

[Dresden]

fwiw - Iowa expert and college fb writer, S Dochterman's thoughts on punter T Taylor, et al. He starts at ~27:30

Watch on YouTube

Interesting. Thinks that Booker would have been a good pick in the 3rd round. Sounds like the punter will really be a weapon- can kick it far, and also has excellent placement.

[NecessaryEvil]

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[patryk7754]

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His physique reminds me of Andre Johnson (or maybe its just the 80)

[patryk7754]

fwiw - Iowa expert and college fb writer, S Dochterman's thoughts on punter T Taylor, et al. He starts at ~27:30

Watch on YouTube

Interesting. Thinks that Booker would have been a good pick in the 3rd round. Sounds like the punter will really be a weapon- can kick it far, and also has excellent placement.

I usually hate "high" picks on punters/kickers but I kinda like this pick. Maybe not the best value, but we had some of the worst punting in the NFL last year. That played a major role in the struggles of the defense. By all accounts, this punter is really really good and should be a significant upgrade.

Maybe I'm a little too lost in the sauce in what Poles has done this off-season, but I have no criticism on taking a punter.

[fleet]

fwiw - Iowa expert and college fb writer, S Dochterman's thoughts on punter T Taylor, et al. He starts at ~27:30

Watch on YouTube

Interesting. Thinks that Booker would have been a good pick in the 3rd round. Sounds like the punter will really be a weapon- can kick it far, and also has excellent placement.

I usually hate "high" picks on punters/kickers but I kinda like this pick. Maybe not the best value, but we had some of the worst punting in the NFL last year. That played a major role in the struggles of the defense. By all accounts, this punter is really really good and should be a significant upgrade.

Maybe I'm a little too lost in the sauce in what Poles has done this off-season, but I have no criticism on taking a punter.

According to Gabriel fwiw there was only one or 2 other edge players on the board at the time including the punter. None have Booker’s upside according to him. Probably were other positions possible though. But then you don’t get the punter

[chitowndish]

There was an article around the draft talking about how Poles was watching a game and was mesmerized by the punter and basically said he thinks it's the best punter he's ever seen so I think he went into the draft really wanting Taylor. I was able to catch Poles on the Pat Mcaffee show today and Poles said he thought Taylor was going to get picked in a few picks after theirs and I think Booker was the other guy he wanted but he thought he could get the punter and Booker later by trading back and was able to do it.

I think it was a good move we had pretty much the worst punter in the league last year and you are replacing him with a guy that is very likely to be among the best and they said it on the call too maybe the best punter of all time and Pat is a punter so he's got a pretty valid point of view there (I liked Poles joke about the only reason he did the interview was because a punter was there lol). They got into it a bit too he has a different way of kicking the ball and some kind of spin where it either sticks or rolls laterally I don't know how the hell he does it but there is a extremely wide body of work because he punted so much and he's just really skilled at it so it isn't just a big leg. It's also nice because he locked up a great starter who will impact the game for a long time and yeah he could have taken a swing on a player at edge but he did that too so I didn't have any complaints.

[TheJordanRule]

Although I still disagree with Fleet about Ryan Poles’ rating as a GM (which ranks at good to great imo), I must admit that Fleet’s criticism about Poles was, at the very least, on target about Poles’ tendency to overpay for the guys he wants, and undersell the guys he wants to get rid of. Everyone talks about spending a second rounder on Clayfool, but I’d argue that VJJ was a more obscene reach in the 3rd. Fields was essentially just thrown aside for a sixth round draft pick, right after we tanked the kid’s value.

Why isn’t it that Fields tanked his own value ? He sucks.


At some point it’s on him.

Look at what the Niners did with Trey - a kid who demonstrated a lot LESS than what Justin did last year. I don't think we've seen this kid throw so accurately before for 300+ and 400+ yard games. Plus we had over a month leading up to the draft. Why on earth would we just give Justin away for an epic lowball offer, a conditional 6th round pick? Poles has got the big picture so right so often, but typically you want your GM to extract a reasonable bit of value even on assets he's looking to get rid of.

[Dresden]

Although I still disagree with Fleet about Ryan Poles’ rating as a GM (which ranks at good to great imo), I must admit that Fleet’s criticism about Poles was, at the very least, on target about Poles’ tendency to overpay for the guys he wants, and undersell the guys he wants to get rid of. Everyone talks about spending a second rounder on Clayfool, but I’d argue that VJJ was a more obscene reach in the 3rd. Fields was essentially just thrown aside for a sixth round draft pick, right after we tanked the kid’s value.

Why isn’t it that Fields tanked his own value ? He sucks.


At some point it’s on him.

Look at what the Niners did with Trey - a kid who demonstrated a lot LESS than what Justin did last year. I don't think we've seen this kid throw so accurately before for 300+ and 400+ yard games. Plus we had over a month leading up to the draft. Why on earth would we just give Justin away for an epic lowball offer, a conditional 6th round pick? Poles has got the big picture so right so often, but typically you want your GM to extract a reasonable bit of value even on assets he's looking to get rid of.

It's conditional because it could go up to a 4th. By all accounts there just wasn't a market for Fields. Mac Jones showed more than fields did, and he also went for a 6th I believe.

[Dresden]

There was an article around the draft talking about how Poles was watching a game and was mesmerized by the punter and basically said he thinks it's the best punter he's ever seen so I think he went into the draft really wanting Taylor. I was able to catch Poles on the Pat Mcaffee show today and Poles said he thought Taylor was going to get picked in a few picks after theirs and I think Booker was the other guy he wanted but he thought he could get the punter and Booker later by trading back and was able to do it.

I think it was a good move we had pretty much the worst punter in the league last year and you are replacing him with a guy that is very likely to be among the best and they said it on the call too maybe the best punter of all time and Pat is a punter so he's got a pretty valid point of view there (I liked Poles joke about the only reason he did the interview was because a punter was there lol). They got into it a bit too he has a different way of kicking the ball and some kind of spin where it either sticks or rolls laterally I don't know how the hell he does it but there is a extremely wide body of work because he punted so much and he's just really skilled at it so it isn't just a big leg. It's also nice because he locked up a great starter who will impact the game for a long time and yeah he could have taken a swing on a player at edge but he did that too so I didn't have any complaints.

Yeah, I'm not sure why punters are so under appreciated. It can be a pretty big advantage in a tight game if your punter is consistently out kicking the other punter, and pinning them back deep inside the 20. That can really help the defense.

If you think your offense is going to be so good that you only are punting 2-3 times a game, I guess you could say it is a bit of a waste, but in a close game, that can still make a difference. And how many 4th round picks can you say that about?

[Dresden]

Frank Schwab ranks the Bears draft as the best in the league:

"1. Chicago Bears

The Bears did a great job not only getting in position for Caleb Williams — remember, they had that pick because they wrecked the Panthers in a pre-draft trade last year — but also putting good talent around Williams. Rome Odunze would be the WR1 in many drafts, and it's rare to get a home run QB and WR in the same draft. Offensive tackle Kiran Amegadjie could be a great pick, too, if he's healthy. Of course, a team with two picks in the top nine is going to have a good-looking draft, but the Bears really did a great job with the assets they had."

[ThisGuyFawkes]

Taylor is good because he puts a ton of air under the ball. No matter how far the punt is, the ball is going to be up in air for awhile and it gives your guys a chance to get there before the opponents can set up a return. Combine with that and the fact that he can spin the ball to stay put within the 20, it means he's a really good punter and the numbers support that.

We'll see how he does in the NFL but I can't see why any of that wouldn't translate.

[molepharmer]

No surprise....Bears waive punter Trenton Gill, about an hour ago.

[jump]

If we had drafted Austin Booker in the 4th and Taylor in the 5th, no one would be commenting. So what the hell is the difference? We got who we wanted. Be happy!