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Bears 6.0 - Bear Witness to their 1st elite offense

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Re: Bears 6.0 - Bear Witness to their 1st elite offense 

Post#21 » by dougthonus » Fri May 10, 2024 3:58 pm

jnrjr79 wrote:Oh, yeah, my post was only addressing the salary number. I definitely get some consternation over trading a 2nd and then having to pay that number. Though what was the alternative here? Try to outbid Houston for Danielle Hunter? I think it's likely to work out well, but I take your point that it's risky and often ill-advised to trade away high draft capital for someone you need to sign.


I agree it will work out with Sweat (presuming health and lack of sudden unexpected decline).

As to Sweat's quality, he was 6th in the NFL in sacks last year, 6th in forced fumbles, and 36th in solo tackles among edge rushers. I think he's better than the 25th or 30th EDGE (your post said DL, so many you wanted to include DTs there, but in that event, being 25th in the NFL at a position where there are something like 140 starting DLs isn't so bad).


Maybe he's better than I credit him for, I may be anchored a bit to the performance at the time of the trade where he had averaged about 1 sack every two games in his career prior to the trade. Getting 12.5 last year was a big jump, and to be fair, he had shown that jump at the beginning of that season with Washington.

As to Poles making this a "pattern," I am not so sure. As to the miserable Claypool trade, he was trying to give Justin something of a weapon to evaluate him. As to Sweat, he was trying to put together a win-now roster to be ready for his next QB. The sample size is small enough that I wouldn't draw grand conclusions about his approach. I think he's taking some swings due to the rookie QB contract situation, but that won't always be the situation. Also, he's probably making some more dramatic moves when he's turning an entire roster over than he would be now that he's largely built one. Going forward, hopefully it'll be more draft-focused with an eye toward maintaining the roster than having to build it from the ground up.


Every time you trade picks for players, you are trying to do something. So what he was trying to do doesn't really matter to me that much. The Claypool trade seemed horrendously dumb in the moment to me. The Sweat trade much less so. Overall, I think Poles is pretty mediocre and has backed his way into an amazing situation largely due to luck. I've posted about that at length, but the biggest things going or the Bears are only going for them due to Poles explicit misevaluations and mistakes, not because he purposefully steered the ship here. As my old tennis coach used to say though, I'd rather be lucky than good.

Also, while I do think he's benefited tremendously from luck, he still should be getting better as time goes on. It's his first GM job, and so I'm sure he's learned a lot of lessons over this period of time and hopefully he can apply them going forward.
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Re: Bears 6.0 - Bear Witness to their 1st elite offense 

Post#22 » by jnrjr79 » Fri May 10, 2024 4:26 pm

dougthonus wrote:
jnrjr79 wrote:Oh, yeah, my post was only addressing the salary number. I definitely get some consternation over trading a 2nd and then having to pay that number. Though what was the alternative here? Try to outbid Houston for Danielle Hunter? I think it's likely to work out well, but I take your point that it's risky and often ill-advised to trade away high draft capital for someone you need to sign.


I agree it will work out with Sweat (presuming health and lack of sudden unexpected decline).

As to Sweat's quality, he was 6th in the NFL in sacks last year, 6th in forced fumbles, and 36th in solo tackles among edge rushers. I think he's better than the 25th or 30th EDGE (your post said DL, so many you wanted to include DTs there, but in that event, being 25th in the NFL at a position where there are something like 140 starting DLs isn't so bad).


Maybe he's better than I credit him for, I may be anchored a bit to the performance at the time of the trade where he had averaged about 1 sack every two games in his career prior to the trade. Getting 12.5 last year was a big jump, and to be fair, he had shown that jump at the beginning of that season with Washington.

As to Poles making this a "pattern," I am not so sure. As to the miserable Claypool trade, he was trying to give Justin something of a weapon to evaluate him. As to Sweat, he was trying to put together a win-now roster to be ready for his next QB. The sample size is small enough that I wouldn't draw grand conclusions about his approach. I think he's taking some swings due to the rookie QB contract situation, but that won't always be the situation. Also, he's probably making some more dramatic moves when he's turning an entire roster over than he would be now that he's largely built one. Going forward, hopefully it'll be more draft-focused with an eye toward maintaining the roster than having to build it from the ground up.


Every time you trade picks for players, you are trying to do something. So what he was trying to do doesn't really matter to me that much. The Claypool trade seemed horrendously dumb in the moment to me. The Sweat trade much less so. Overall, I think Poles is pretty mediocre and has backed his way into an amazing situation largely due to luck. I've posted about that at length, but the biggest things going or the Bears are only going for them due to Poles explicit misevaluations and mistakes, not because he purposefully steered the ship here. As my old tennis coach used to say though, I'd rather be lucky than good.

Also, while I do think he's benefited tremendously from luck, he still should be getting better as time goes on. It's his first GM job, and so I'm sure he's learned a lot of lessons over this period of time and hopefully he can apply them going forward.


I agree w/much or most of what you've said here. As to the bolded, the "why" matters because it suggests that in a different situation, Poles may no longer think a picks-for-vets approach is appropriate. They obviously still have a couple of holes, but the Bears currently have about as complete a roster as one can hope to have in today's NFL. So, it could be one of those deals where Poles no longer would find it desirable to do more such moves.

(I'm not including Allen here, because there's just such a big difference in trading a later pick than the 2nd rounders that were swapped for Claypool and Sweat. That kind of a swap might be something he'll end up doing routinely - I don't know.)
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Re: Bears 6.0 - Bear Witness to their 1st elite offense 

Post#23 » by Jcool0 » Fri May 10, 2024 4:30 pm

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Re: Bears 6.0 - Bear Witness to their 1st elite offense 

Post#24 » by dougthonus » Fri May 10, 2024 4:34 pm

jnrjr79 wrote:I agree w/much or most of what you've said here. As to the bolded, the "why" matters because it suggests that in a different situation, Poles may no longer think a picks-for-vets approach is appropriate. They obviously still have a couple of holes, but the Bears currently have about as complete a roster as one can hope to have in today's NFL. So, it could be one of those deals where Poles no longer would find it desirable to do more such moves.


I mean in this sense, the "why" on the Claypool trade was horrendous. Claypool was in the midst of a bust year, and if you wanted to give Fields a chance, you should have traded for a more stable veteran WR if the purpose was to help Fields, not a boom/bust guy.

(I'm not including Allen here, because there's just such a big difference in trading a later pick than the 2nd rounders that were swapped for Claypool and Sweat. That kind of a swap might be something he'll end up doing routinely - I don't know.)


Agreed. I think once you hit the 4th round it matters a lot less.

And yes, who knows, maybe he doesn't do it again, but for a team that was clearly in a rebuilding phase and going to reset, trading your draft assets is a pretty interesting choice. It's not all bad, we got some back for Roquan, we did the trade back with Carolina to get more assets in a move that I think he lucked into but gave us insane amounts of value.

Either way, we'll see how it goes with Poles. I don't think his past is all that great, but he's gotten amazingly fortunate so it doesn't matter. Having a few years on the job, and I think hopefully he has learned from the things that didn't work out well, has a better feel for the league, and with an insane starting point, is able to make good moves.
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Re: Bears 6.0 - Bear Witness to their 1st elite offense 

Post#25 » by molepharmer » Fri May 10, 2024 5:02 pm

Jcool0 wrote:
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Not much came out of the presser with Flus, Caleb and Rome. Basics, installs, culture, etc. The only concrete news I got was that Kiran won't be really practicing until training camp, with this summer devoted to mostly rehab of quad to make sure he'll be ready.
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Re: Bears 6.0 - Bear Witness to their 1st elite offense 

Post#26 » by molepharmer » Fri May 10, 2024 5:51 pm

dougthonus wrote:
jnrjr79 wrote:I agree w/much or most of what you've said here. As to the bolded, the "why" matters because it suggests that in a different situation, Poles may no longer think a picks-for-vets approach is appropriate. They obviously still have a couple of holes, but the Bears currently have about as complete a roster as one can hope to have in today's NFL. So, it could be one of those deals where Poles no longer would find it desirable to do more such moves.

.....And yes, who knows, maybe he doesn't do it again, but for a team that was clearly in a rebuilding phase and going to reset, trading your draft assets is a pretty interesting choice. It's not all bad, we got some back for Roquan, we did the trade back with Carolina to get more assets in a move that I think he lucked into but gave us insane amounts of value. ...... .

Not sure you are equating the two 2nd round pick trades but while they both could be construed as occurring during a rebuilding phase, the point during a rebuild phase is completely different. That is, Claypool during the initial installment and Sweat closer to after 60-75% complete. When Sweat was acquired for a 2nd, Poles had added T Smith, Stevenson, Edmunds, Edwards, Billings, Walker, Dexter, Pickens, Moore, Wright, N Davis, R Johnson, Scott, etc. and he knew he'd have two 1st rounders in the upcoming draft.
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Re: Bears 6.0 - Bear Witness to their 1st elite offense 

Post#27 » by nomorezorro » Fri May 10, 2024 6:34 pm

dougthonus wrote:I've posted about that at length, but the biggest things going or the Bears are only going for them due to Poles explicit misevaluations and mistakes, not because he purposefully steered the ship here.


this seems like a really harsh characterization of how the bears got to where they are, and it seems like it hinges primarily on the notion that poles should have identified that a prospect who wasn't the top QB in his class would turn out to be arguably the best rookie quarterback of all time. you don't have to be a preternatural talent evaluator to be a good gm

tearing the team down to the studs, moving veterans for draft picks, landing a top draft asset in 2023, flipping that top draft asset into multiple valuable draft assets and a proven young player, declining to overcommit to fields, positioning yourself to land a top QB in the 2024 class — these are all very much intentional parts of poles's tenure that are crucial to where the team is at today.

none of those are really next-level visionary moves, but it's a sensible path to building a roster that has created a promising future for the franchise. and i think that would still be true if we had the #2 pick in 2023, or if we needed to use both of our first rounders this year to trade into the top 3 for one of the top-tier QB prospects, or whatever other scenarios you want to envision where our luck wasn't quite as good.
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Re: Bears 6.0 - Bear Witness to their 1st elite offense 

Post#28 » by Kurt Heimlich » Fri May 10, 2024 7:02 pm

molepharmer wrote:
Jcool0 wrote:
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Not much came out of the presser with Flus, Caleb and Rome. Basics, installs, culture, etc. The only concrete news I got was that Kiran won't be really practicing until training camp, with this summer devoted to mostly rehab of quad to make sure he'll be ready.


Yeah I love me some secret bagent man just as much as anyone else, but playing the "it's a competition at QB" game here would've been silly and transparently disingenuous.

My takeaway from the presser was Rome flexing his ridiculously polished and charismatic self yet again. Seeing dudes like Raschee Rice behaving like a 15 year old criminal and Rome looking and sounding like a 28 year old absolute pro on the other end of the spectrum makes me all the more in awe of Rome. And Caleb continues to show that brainniac style of thought and process, and his "funny because he's That Dude" trademark weirdness with his awkward "da bears" as he left the podium lol.
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Re: Bears 6.0 - Bear Witness to their 1st elite offense 

Post#29 » by Hold That » Fri May 10, 2024 7:22 pm

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Re: Bears 6.0 - Bear Witness to their 1st elite offense 

Post#30 » by dougthonus » Fri May 10, 2024 8:45 pm

nomorezorro wrote:this seems like a really harsh characterization of how the bears got to where they are, and it seems like it hinges primarily on the notion that poles should have identified that a prospect who wasn't the top QB in his class would turn out to be arguably the best rookie quarterback of all time. you don't have to be a preternatural talent evaluator to be a good gm

tearing the team down to the studs, moving veterans for draft picks, landing a top draft asset in 2023, flipping that top draft asset into multiple valuable draft assets and a proven young player, declining to overcommit to fields, positioning yourself to land a top QB in the 2024 class — these are all very much intentional parts of poles's tenure that are crucial to where the team is at today.

none of those are really next-level visionary moves, but it's a sensible path to building a roster that has created a promising future for the franchise. and i think that would still be true if we had the #2 pick in 2023, or if we needed to use both of our first rounders this year to trade into the top 3 for one of the top-tier QB prospects, or whatever other scenarios you want to envision where our luck wasn't quite as good.


Poles made the win now move at 3-5 to trade a 2nd for Claypool in the year they were the worst team in the league. He wasn't aiming to get that #1 pick. That pick is the basis for everything that happened afterwards, and he has it against what he demonstrably tried to do not because of what he tried to do.

His continued belief in Fields (which now appears unjustified) is what caused him to move that #1 pick that year, and just an amazingly great fortune happened that got him the #1 pick a 2nd year in a row with an elite prospect available.

Those events constitute the vast majority of the positive Bears thoughts right now, both things happened because Poles thought the team was better than it was and still believed in Justin Fields. Completely misevaluating what would happen worked out massively in his favor in consecutive years.

It doesn't really matter how we got here though, we're here now. Poles has had a few years in the seat, and I'm sure he learned some tough lessons along the way. Right place / right time can go along way towards making mistakes painful or not painful.
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Re: Bears 6.0 - Bear Witness to their 1st elite offense 

Post#31 » by biggestbullsfan » Fri May 10, 2024 9:39 pm

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Re: Bears 6.0 - Bear Witness to their 1st elite offense 

Post#32 » by jordanwilliams6 » Fri May 10, 2024 9:47 pm

Obviously it’s still early days but it’s seeming like any concerns about Caleb’s personality or desire to be a Bear were completely unfounded.

He seems like a good guy and is certainly embracing the city.
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Re: Bears 6.0 - Bear Witness to their 1st elite offense 

Post#33 » by nomorezorro » Fri May 10, 2024 10:07 pm

dougthonus wrote:Poles made the win now move at 3-5 to trade a 2nd for Claypool in the year they were the worst team in the league. He wasn't aiming to get that #1 pick. That pick is the basis for everything that happened afterwards, and he has it against what he demonstrably tried to do not because of what he tried to do.

His continued belief in Fields (which now appears unjustified) is what caused him to move that #1 pick that year, and just an amazingly great fortune happened that got him the #1 pick a 2nd year in a row with an elite prospect available.

Those events constitute the vast majority of the positive Bears thoughts right now, both things happened because Poles thought the team was better than it was and still believed in Justin Fields. Completely misevaluating what would happen worked out massively in his favor in consecutive years.

It doesn't really matter how we got here though, we're here now. Poles has had a few years in the seat, and I'm sure he learned some tough lessons along the way. Right place / right time can go along way towards making mistakes painful or not painful.


i definitely would not classify the claypool trade as a "win now move", in that it pretty obviously wasn't made with the primary goal of winning more games in 2022 (even if that was a potential side effect). it was made because our WR corps was so bad that there was legitimate reason to believe it might be negatively affecting fields's development, and because poles didn't like the 2023 free agent/draft classes. not saying it wasn't a bad move, but it's silly to look at the claypool trade and go "oh he was trying to win games!" when we also traded away two of our best defenders at that same deadline

and i don't think trading the #1 pick last year signified a belief in fields beyond "he's flashed enough that we don't feel a need to move on, and we don't love any of the QB prospects in this class." from the moment the trade was made, people were already saying "if fields doesn't work out, we'll almost certainly be positioned to target a top QB prospect next year in what's considered a much stronger class." presumably wouldn't have been able to get caleb if we don't land #1 ourselves, but we had exceedingly good odds of being armed with the trade ammo to land maye or daniels. i presume that was by design
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Re: Bears 6.0 - Bear Witness to their 1st elite offense 

Post#34 » by fleet » Fri May 10, 2024 11:51 pm

nomorezorro wrote:but we had exceedingly good odds of being armed with the trade ammo to land maye or daniels. i presume that was by design

But neither guy was traded, there were very good haul offers. Multiple ones etc. At the end of the day, teams that need quarterbacks don’t trade out of those top slots if quarterbacks are there that hold that high pick value. In ‘23 Poles would have to be looking at the range of McCarthys, Penixs and Nixs of the world, and I gotta believe he expected that to be his fallback situation. I think Atlanta had offers too, and they actually had signed an expensive quarterback, plus held significant position needs on defense, and still couldn’t pass on Penix.
Brad Biggs wrote:Fields was in the bottom third of the league in too many key statistical metrics for the Bears to commit to the idea of trading down from the first pick for a bundle of future assets and then building around him.
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Re: Bears 6.0 - Bear Witness to their 1st elite offense 

Post#35 » by fleet » Sat May 11, 2024 12:13 am

I noticed a receiver #12 catching a pass today. Velus?

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Brad Biggs wrote:Fields was in the bottom third of the league in too many key statistical metrics for the Bears to commit to the idea of trading down from the first pick for a bundle of future assets and then building around him.
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Re: Bears 6.0 - Bear Witness to their 1st elite offense 

Post#36 » by NecessaryEvil » Sat May 11, 2024 12:20 pm

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Re: Bears 6.0 - Bear Witness to their 1st elite offense 

Post#38 » by NecessaryEvil » Sat May 11, 2024 4:59 pm

Chi town wrote:https://www.dabearsblog.com/2024/with-caleb-williams-theres-a-little-bit-of-star-quality

Fully agree.


Caleb still has to produce. But if he does so at a high level, he is going to be the biggest star in the sport. That’s not hyperbole, it is a fact. A source close to Roger Goodell has told me the commissioner believes the greatest untapped resource in the NFL is a star quarterback in Chicago.



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Re: Bears 6.0 - Bear Witness to their 1st elite offense 

Post#39 » by sco » Sat May 11, 2024 5:00 pm

Chi town wrote:https://www.dabearsblog.com/2024/with-caleb-williams-theres-a-little-bit-of-star-quality

Fully agree.

After JF, I will not let myself get excited or depressed about CW this season. Anyone expecting a season like CJ had last season is statistically almost guaranteed to be disappointed.
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Re: Bears 6.0 - Bear Witness to their 1st elite offense 

Post#40 » by Chi town » Sat May 11, 2024 5:12 pm

sco wrote:
Chi town wrote:https://www.dabearsblog.com/2024/with-caleb-williams-theres-a-little-bit-of-star-quality

Fully agree.

After JF, I will not let myself get excited or depressed about CW this season. Anyone expecting a season like CJ had last season is statistically almost guaranteed to be disappointed.


I’m the polar opposite. I was always wait and see with JF1. Never bought his jersey. My last jersey was Urlacher.

CW is built different. He was brought up like Tiger Woods. Raised and trained from a kid to be and do this. He has the head and competitive spirit to be it for a long time too.

I’ve given myself permission to go all in!

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