Bears 6.0 - Bear Witness to their 1st elite offense

[dougthonus]

It looks like their 4 toughest games will be @ 49'ers, @ DET, @ GB and @ HOU. Their 4 easiest look like v. NE, WAS, ARI, CAR. If they go 4-4 out of those 8, that leaves home games v. TEN, LAR, Jags, GB, MN, DET, and SEA. They should win 4-5 of those. And that leaves away games at MN and IND. They should win 1 or both of those.

That leaves them with 9-11 wins.

I think its just as believable that Caleb just plays like a rookie QB who shows a lot of signs but is also far away and the defense isn't there yet, and they just win 5 games and are positioned well for the future, but still off to a slow start.

I'm going to keep my fingers crossed, but I'm not going to get too hung up on wins vs losses this year. It's just so hard to predict what is going to happen when your defense doesn't look super great and your QB is a rookie. Most rookie QBs aren't giving you what CJ Stroud just did.

If we hit 11 wins this year, I would be really surprised, and I'm still very bullish on the future, I just don't think it's going to hit as fast as that.

[dice]

The skepticism from being burned a hundred times by this stupid organization is completely understandable, but you and Fleet talked me into believing that a cerebral QB, with a team friendly playstyle, is a difference maker (unlike Fields). So I'm sorry, but going 8-9 with this roster would probably disprove your initial hypothesis.

To each his own, but I'm not going to care if they go 8-9 in Caleb's rookie year, this is mile 1 of a marathon, we don't have to be leading out the gates. I want to see signs of superstardom out of Caleb and Rome and then watch us build up the consistency over the next 2 years and shore up any weak areas.

If we are ahead of schedule and make the playoffs this year, then hell yeah, that's even more awesome.

For what it's worth, the experts agree with you, Doug. Six hours ago DraftKings became the latest in a long line of sports news outlets to co-sign your assessment:

"DraftKings has released its projected win totals for the 2024 NFL season. Coming off a strong finish in a seven-win 2023 season, the Bears’ expected win total is greater in 2024. Here’s a look at the projected win totals for the Bears... 8.5 games"

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/lists/bears-2024-nfl-season-win-totals-betting-odds-over-under-opponents/

that projects that not only was the latter half of last season a fluke, but the obviously impactful roster additions won't result in improvement. it makes no sense

[dice]

We have both a starting and backup Center. Why do people keep saying that lol.

because we have 0 established starting centers and no reason to believe that we have anyone who will become that

[dice]

David Kenyon, a journalist from Bleacher Report, thinks that we're one of the Top 3 most overrated teams in the NFL.

https://heavy.com/sports/nfl/chicago-bears/roster-overrated-williams-odunze-jones-ngakoue/

"The problem is Chicago must navigate a division with the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers. Taking on the NFC West likely won't help the Bears in wild-card tiebreakers, and last year's defensive surge coincided with playing four of the NFL's worst offenses."

We still need a C and edge rusher, but aside from that, what else can we complain about? The roster, aside from those two holes, is about as complete as its ever been.

aside from the obvious wildcard...

-interior defense is unproven
-byard is coming off bad stint in philly. fluke or age-related?
-JJ is coming off his only good season (shades of eddie jackson?)
-which stevenson and edmunds will show up?
-nickle/slot corner unproven
-defensive depth a concern
-will davis bounce back?
-jenkins health
-will wright progress?
-forget phil jackson, is eberflus doug collins?

also cannot expect the defensive turnover machine from latter half of the season to keep producing

[nomorezorro]

We have both a starting and backup Center. Why do people keep saying that lol.

because we have 0 established starting centers and no reason to believe that we have anyone who will become that

we have a guy who started 17 games at center last season

[dice]

We have both a starting and backup Center. Why do people keep saying that lol.

because we have 0 established starting centers and no reason to believe that we have anyone who will become that

we have a guy who started 17 games at center last season

i should have added the word good. he was decent for the first time last season (his 6th)

and i should note that i like the signing. the trade for his backup? not so much

[dice]

You can say that getting DJ Moore was luck because of us getting the #1 pick due to the Texans winning that game at the end, but it was Poles who went out and used that pick to get DJ Moore. That was Pole's choice- to get a premier WR. And he got a good one. So that part of it was not luck- it was Poles making a smart decision to insist on getting DJ as part of the package.

Sure, but again, smart decision making he only was able to make due to events that happened that went against his plan and evaluation, but I have already said I think the Carolina trade was a good trade and would have been a good trade even if it yielded pick #6 instead of #1, so I agree with what you are saying, but it doesn't contradict anything else I've said.

it should be noted that 10.5 was the median expectation for the panthers pick. they had a higher expected win total than the texans!

poles would have been happy w/ #6 for that pick. and UNhappy w/ #10 for the bears own pick, because it would've meant the team wasn't as good as expected. ending up w/ 1 and 8 and lucking into 2 elite talents was absolutely not the plan

[Dresden]

It looks like their 4 toughest games will be @ 49'ers, @ DET, @ GB and @ HOU. Their 4 easiest look like v. NE, WAS, ARI, CAR. If they go 4-4 out of those 8, that leaves home games v. TEN, LAR, Jags, GB, MN, DET, and SEA. They should win 4-5 of those. And that leaves away games at MN and IND. They should win 1 or both of those.

That leaves them with 9-11 wins.

I think its just as believable that Caleb just plays like a rookie QB who shows a lot of signs but is also far away and the defense isn't there yet, and they just win 5 games and are positioned well for the future, but still off to a slow start.

I'm going to keep my fingers crossed, but I'm not going to get too hung up on wins vs losses this year. It's just so hard to predict what is going to happen when your defense doesn't look super great and your QB is a rookie. Most rookie QBs aren't giving you what CJ Stroud just did.

If we hit 11 wins this year, I would be really surprised, and I'm still very bullish on the future, I just don't think it's going to hit as fast as that.

I don't see how the offense can be anything but better than it was last year. We've added two very dynamic WR's, have a better TE2, a better RB, and should have an improved O line. Justin Fields was a bottom third QB. If Caleb is just average, they should be significantly better on offense. The only way they aren't is if Caleb throws a lot of INT's, or we have massive injuries along the line.

I guess there may also be some growing pains with a new OC. But I don't expect any of those things to outweigh the improvements.

So if they won 7 last year, and have the 3rd easiest schedule this year, I'd think 9 wins would be the floor, unless something really goes wrong with the defense.

[dougthonus]

I don't see how the offense can be anything but better than it was last year. We've added two very dynamic WR's, have a better TE2, a better RB, and should have an improved O line. Justin Fields was a bottom third QB. If Caleb is just average, they should be significantly better on offense. The only way they aren't is if Caleb throws a lot of INT's, or we have massive injuries along the line.

I guess there may also be some growing pains with a new OC. But I don't expect any of those things to outweigh the improvements.

So if they won 7 last year, and have the 3rd easiest schedule this year, I'd think 9 wins would be the floor, unless something really goes wrong with the defense.

If the betting odds are 8.5 and have the benefit of really sophisticated modeling, you should set your sites on that being the median outcome. Worth noting that given the Bears have massive hype and a huge fan base, the betting odds would be more likely to be overstated than understated based on the gambling modelers trying to create an even amount of money.

Not that 9 would shock more or anything, but you start hitting 11? That'd be pretty surprising to me (and pretty damn awesome!).

[Dresden]

I don't see how the offense can be anything but better than it was last year. We've added two very dynamic WR's, have a better TE2, a better RB, and should have an improved O line. Justin Fields was a bottom third QB. If Caleb is just average, they should be significantly better on offense. The only way they aren't is if Caleb throws a lot of INT's, or we have massive injuries along the line.

I guess there may also be some growing pains with a new OC. But I don't expect any of those things to outweigh the improvements.

So if they won 7 last year, and have the 3rd easiest schedule this year, I'd think 9 wins would be the floor, unless something really goes wrong with the defense.

If the betting odds are 8.5 and have the benefit of really sophisticated modeling, you should set your sites on that being the median outcome. Worth noting that given the Bears have massive hype and a huge fan base, the betting odds would be more likely to be overstated than understated based on the gambling modelers trying to create an even amount of money.

Not that 9 would shock more or anything, but you start hitting 11? That'd be pretty surprising to me (and pretty damn awesome!).

What did the sophisticated models say about the Texans and Panthers last year?

[fleet]

We have both a starting and backup Center. Why do people keep saying that lol.

because we have 0 established starting centers and no reason to believe that we have anyone who will become that

I was half listening to a podcast that claimed the guy they got from the Rams was the 17th ranked starting center on one of those PFF other site lists last year. Surprising if true, caught my ear, but don’t know anything about him. Same rankings had Lucas Patrick as the 30 something (which would be way too high). I believe Poles believes they improved. Sure, it’s not the final solution or anything.

Here is one list. Not sure what these numbers mean or what the list order is for, I searched with my phone and can barely see this with my eyes




https://www.milehighreport.com/2024/2/7/24064548/data-driven-ranking-of-all-starting-nfl-interior-offensive-linemen-2023

[TheEndIsNigh]

It looks like their 4 toughest games will be @ 49'ers, @ DET, @ GB and @ HOU. Their 4 easiest look like v. NE, WAS, ARI, CAR. If they go 4-4 out of those 8, that leaves home games v. TEN, LAR, Jags, GB, MN, DET, and SEA. They should win 4-5 of those. And that leaves away games at MN and IND. They should win 1 or both of those.

That leaves them with 9-11 wins.

I think its just as believable that Caleb just plays like a rookie QB who shows a lot of signs but is also far away and the defense isn't there yet, and they just win 5 games and are positioned well for the future, but still off to a slow start.

I'm going to keep my fingers crossed, but I'm not going to get too hung up on wins vs losses this year. It's just so hard to predict what is going to happen when your defense doesn't look super great and your QB is a rookie. Most rookie QBs aren't giving you what CJ Stroud just did.

If we hit 11 wins this year, I would be really surprised, and I'm still very bullish on the future, I just don't think it's going to hit as fast as that.

I mostly agree with this, but I think our floor is 7 wins. We really have an entourage of talented players, and our schedule is pretty favorable. I just don't see us losing more than 10 games.

[dice]

We have both a starting and backup Center. Why do people keep saying that lol.

because we have 0 established starting centers and no reason to believe that we have anyone who will become that

I was half listening to a podcast that claimed the guy they got from the Rams was the 17th ranked starting center on one of those PFF other site lists last year. Surprising if true, caught my ear, but don’t know anything about him. Same rankings had Lucas Patrick as the 30 something (which would be way too high). I believe Poles believes they improved. Sure, it’s not the final solution or anything.

Here is one list. Not sure what these numbers mean or what the list order is for, I searched with my phone and can barely see this with my eyes




https://www.milehighreport.com/2024/2/7/24064548/data-driven-ranking-of-all-starting-nfl-interior-offensive-linemen-2023

patrick is the 6th ranked center there

i certainly think shelton is likely to be an upgrade over patrick!

[TheSuzerain]

We have both a starting and backup Center. Why do people keep saying that lol.

because we have 0 established starting centers and no reason to believe that we have anyone who will become that

We signed the Rams starting center.

[TheJordanRule]

We have both a starting and backup Center. Why do people keep saying that lol.

because we have 0 established starting centers and no reason to believe that we have anyone who will become that

We signed the Rams starting center.

https://www.audacy.com/670thescore/sports/chicago-bears/bears-are-set-for-a-position-battle-at-center
“The Bears acquired veteran offensive lineman Ryan Bates in March by trading a fifth-round pick to the Bills. Bates, 27, is a five-year NFL veteran who has played in 73 career games (19 starts) across all five positions on the offensive line. Shortly after Bates’ arrival, the Bears signed former Rams center Coleman Shelton to a one-year deal. The 28-year-old Shelton is a six-year NFL veteran who has played the majority of his snaps at center.

Shelton started all 17 games at center for the Rams in 2023 and has 32 starts over the last three seasons.”

So we upgraded from Lucas Patrick to Shelton who is a mid level starter at center and traded for another guy in Bates could push for starters minutes? So that’s why we gave up a 4th rounder! So the deal was Bates + Booker, not a straight up Booker for a 4th!

Good catch Suzerain. I missed both of these under the radar moves!

[biggestbullsfan]

Read on Twitter

I can’t tell you how happy i am they we got Rome. Both of the other WR seem like a headache lol

[fleet]

Caleb does his Aaron Rodgers impression in a Bears uni

Read on Twitter

[dougthonus]

What did the sophisticated models say about the Texans and Panthers last year?

Do you really think you are better at modeling outcomes than profession odd setters?

It's fine if you think the Bears will be at the over. I am hopeful too. It's silly to say the floor is above the over under line unless you just don't know what a floor is.

[dougthonus]

Read on Twitter

I can’t tell you how happy i am they we got Rome. Both of the other WR seem like a headache lol

On the flip side, stud WRs have a long storied history of also being pain in the asses relative to stars at any other position.

Maybe we should chase the headache guy. J/k, also love Rome.

[Dresden]

What did the sophisticated models say about the Texans and Panthers last year?

Do you really think you are better at modeling outcomes than profession odd setters?

It's fine if you think the Bears will be at the over. I am hopeful too. It's silly to say the floor is above the over under line unless you just don't know what a floor is.

It was just a few posts back that you (and others) said something to the effect of "Poles is new at his job, hopefully he's learning from his mistakes", in the context of moves Poles has made which you and others thought were not very smart, which implies that you know more about GM'ing than a professional GM. Do you think you know more about how to do a GM's job than Poles does?