Lonzo Ball Recovery tracking thread update p76 - Lonzo Has Started Sprinting!

[HomoSapien]

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Okaaaay.

[Dan Z]

Does anyone actually expect anything out of Lonzo in the upcoming season?

[waffle]

it's so sad. He was so freaking good FOR US for a little, tiny, bit there.

[sco]

Does anyone actually expect anything out of Lonzo in the upcoming season?

Expect is a big leap, but I hope we get a guy who slowly becomes a recognizable version of himself by the end of the season, with minutes in the low-mid teens.

[MGB8]

The big question isn’t whether he can get healthy enough to physically do the things he could do before on a momentary, non-extreme basis.

The question is: have his issues been corrected enough - indeed are they even really correctable rather than some function of biomechanical responses to extended wear and stress - so that as the amount of significant heavy usage on his body increases - as he ramps up - he doesn’t quickly start feeling significant pain and degeneration.

To make an analogy - a long time runner who gets some quasi degenerative issue fixed usually can go back to run after surgery and rehab. But (a) the outlier edges of what can be done tend to be decreased, and, even more (b) the ability to run extended durations, repeatedly, day after day… that is what tends to really take the hit.

Given Lonzo’s track record of “start to come back, then setback” my fear, and frankly, expectation, is that what he has isn’t really correctable. In the sense that - ok, you might be able to fix whatever miss alignment or tissue damage or whatnot that is causing the pain… but as soon as you put the stress of getting into NBA level shape and having even close to NBA level wear on the body, his body reacts in a way that creates the same or similar issue as to what was just corrected. And that while you can undo some cumulative, quasi degenerative harms in specific locations, you can’t do it everywhere.

Which is why, while there is “hope,” and it is more than a lotto ticket chance that he can come back and play at an NBA level… the odds, IMO p, are pretty heavily against him. But maybe the historical pattern has made me overly pessimistic.

[Dan Z]

Does anyone actually expect anything out of Lonzo in the upcoming season?

Expect is a big leap, but I hope we get a guy who slowly becomes a recognizable version of himself by the end of the season, with minutes in the low-mid teens.

That's one of the better outcomes and if that happens it won't matter much for the Bulls because by the time he's productive the season will be almost over and he'll be a free agent.

[Bulliever2020]

The big question isn’t whether he can get healthy enough to physically do the things he could do before on a momentary, non-extreme basis.

The question is: have his issues been corrected enough - indeed are they even really correctable rather than some function of biomechanical responses to extended wear and stress - so that as the amount of significant heavy usage on his body increases - as he ramps up - he doesn’t quickly start feeling significant pain and degeneration.

To make an analogy - a long time runner who gets some quasi degenerative issue fixed usually can go back to run after surgery and rehab. But (a) the outlier edges of what can be done tend to be decreased, and, even more (b) the ability to run extended durations, repeatedly, day after day… that is what tends to really take the hit.

Given Lonzo’s track record of “start to come back, then setback” my fear, and frankly, expectation, is that what he has isn’t really correctable. In the sense that - ok, you might be able to fix whatever miss alignment or tissue damage or whatnot that is causing the pain… but as soon as you put the stress of getting into NBA level shape and having even close to NBA level wear on the body, his body reacts in a way that creates the same or similar issue as to what was just corrected. And that while you can undo some cumulative, quasi degenerative harms in specific locations, you can’t do it everywhere.

Which is why, while there is “hope,” and it is more than a lotto ticket chance that he can come back and play at an NBA level… the odds, IMO p, are pretty heavily against him. But maybe the historical pattern has made me overly pessimistic.

I think this is the major thing people are missing when these workout videos are posted and people start to get all excited. The chasm between going 1/4 speed during a workout or being able to dunk one single time to being able to play 82 games at a full speed NBA level are so huge it's like the Grand Canyon.

[Chi town]

I have no hope whatsoever that Lonzo will be able to come back and stay back. Dude always misses games. If he comes back he will be missing plenty of games to “recover.”

[DropStep]

I have no hope whatsoever that Lonzo will be able to come back and stay back. Dude always misses games. If he comes back he will be missing plenty of games to “recover.”

Yep, he will be load managed and will miss games due to injury. If he's a rosterable backup for 40 games with a couple of good stretches, it would be a major victory for him, because it taking until next season for him to get his legs under him would still be a top-tier outcome for him. I'm also really tempering my expectations for his percentages - 33% from 3 would also be a victory going into next season - as well as his defense. He's not going to be great, I wouldn't think, but it would be a feel-good story nonetheless. Rooting for him. (And I do harbor a secret hope that he could be good. But I don't really believe it.)

[chitownsports4ever]

The big question isn’t whether he can get healthy enough to physically do the things he could do before on a momentary, non-extreme basis.

The question is: have his issues been corrected enough - indeed are they even really correctable rather than some function of biomechanical responses to extended wear and stress - so that as the amount of significant heavy usage on his body increases - as he ramps up - he doesn’t quickly start feeling significant pain and degeneration.

To make an analogy - a long time runner who gets some quasi degenerative issue fixed usually can go back to run after surgery and rehab. But (a) the outlier edges of what can be done tend to be decreased, and, even more (b) the ability to run extended durations, repeatedly, day after day… that is what tends to really take the hit.

Given Lonzo’s track record of “start to come back, then setback” my fear, and frankly, expectation, is that what he has isn’t really correctable. In the sense that - ok, you might be able to fix whatever miss alignment or tissue damage or whatnot that is causing the pain… but as soon as you put the stress of getting into NBA level shape and having even close to NBA level wear on the body, his body reacts in a way that creates the same or similar issue as to what was just corrected. And that while you can undo some cumulative, quasi degenerative harms in specific locations, you can’t do it everywhere.

Which is why, while there is “hope,” and it is more than a lotto ticket chance that he can come back and play at an NBA level… the odds, IMO p, are pretty heavily against him. But maybe the historical pattern has made me overly pessimistic.

I think this is the major thing people are missing when these workout videos are posted and people start to get all excited. The chasm between going 1/4 speed during a workout or being able to dunk one single time to being able to play 82 games at a full speed NBA level are so huge it's like the Grand Canyon.

He will be fine the nba season is only 50 games long 65 if you want to win awards

[Rainwater]

Keep in mind what his surgery(ies) actually were:
- 2018 meniscus tear && removal (left knee)
- 2022 meniscus tear (left knee)
- 2023 cartilage transplant (left knee)

3 surgeries on the same knee. IMO the long-term outlook is bad. As explained by a doctor

Watch on YouTube

,
there are nuances involved but we can guess the meniscus issues probably lead to the cartilage replacement. And IMO is likely to again. The upper part of the knee is like a U laying on the bottom part which is flat. The meniscus helps to stabilize impact on the knee by providing a larger area to spread impact. And basketball players have a lot of impact from constantly jumping and landing.

Science has gotten better at replacing tendons and ligaments. Meniscus replacement is available but I haven't heard of many nba players opting for that. I looked but didn't find if Lonzo got a meniscus replacement in addition to cartilage replacement. I guess bottom line -- who knows? I wish him success and health but I'm a doubter.

This post is very inaccurate. I have watched this video 100 times since it came out and nowhere in the video did the doctor say the "the long-term outlook is bad". The most you can get from the video is "I don't know". Honestly, there is plenty of information in this video for one to prove their bias depending how they feel on the Lonzo situation.

And in regard to if the meniscus played a role in the cartilage replacement, the doctor literally said we will never know. For all we know the initial meniscus damage may have caused the cartilage defect. And both the meniscus and cartilage surgeries may fix everything. And there have been many players who have had the meniscus surgery and don't have cartilage damage. Hell, I have the cartilage defect but never had the meniscus issue and my doctor told me it was likely wear and tear. Unless you are Lonzo's doctor no one has a clue what caused what.

[Rainwater]

I amazed that so many orthopedic surgeons post here even you seem incompetent to make diagnoses having never seen a patient. Hilarious that people so uninformed know so much about the Ball family.

I just feel like it's human nature for people to have opinions on things they have little information about. So many people play Doctor, Lawyers, and Economist on social media every day when they have very little or no knowledge on the subject. People seem to always want to have an opinion on something rather than coming off ignorant and saying I don't know. And additionally, I feel like people come to a debate with a predetermined bias even though they lack the knowledge or willingness to be fair. So, it is more about proving their bias perspective than saying I don't know

I will admit that I am not a professional athlete (I am an amateur at best) or doctor but as someone who has had the surgery, I just feel like there is no reason for Lonzo not to come back from this surgery unless this transplant does not work in the long run. If pain was his chief complaint and he no longer feels that pain after the surgery, I think he should be fine. But who knows everybody's bodies are different. My only concern is his level of play and if he comes back as the same player.

[khufure]

Keep in mind what his surgery(ies) actually were:
- 2018 meniscus tear && removal (left knee)
- 2022 meniscus tear (left knee)
- 2023 cartilage transplant (left knee)

3 surgeries on the same knee. IMO the long-term outlook is bad. As explained by a doctor

Watch on YouTube

,
there are nuances involved but we can guess the meniscus issues probably lead to the cartilage replacement. And IMO is likely to again. The upper part of the knee is like a U laying on the bottom part which is flat. The meniscus helps to stabilize impact on the knee by providing a larger area to spread impact. And basketball players have a lot of impact from constantly jumping and landing.

Science has gotten better at replacing tendons and ligaments. Meniscus replacement is available but I haven't heard of many nba players opting for that. I looked but didn't find if Lonzo got a meniscus replacement in addition to cartilage replacement. I guess bottom line -- who knows? I wish him success and health but I'm a doubter.

This post is very inaccurate. I have watched this video 100 times since it came out and nowhere in the video did the doctor say the "the long-term outlook is bad". The most you can get from the video is "I don't know". Honestly, there is plenty of information in this video for one to prove their bias depending how they feel on the Lonzo situation.

And in regard to if the meniscus played a role in the cartilage replacement, the doctor literally said we will never know. For all we know the initial meniscus damage may have caused the cartilage defect. And both the meniscus and cartilage surgeries may fix everything. And there have been many players who have had the meniscus surgery and don't have cartilage damage. Hell, I have the cartilage defect but never had the meniscus issue and my doctor told me it was likely wear and tear. Unless you are Lonzo's doctor no one has a clue what caused what.

1.) In the line you quoted literally `IMO the long-term outlook is bad` -- IMO is `in my opinion`, as you probably know? If not, now you do.
2.) That's the entire point of my post, that 2 meniscus tears in the same knee lead to his cartilage transplant. We are not his doctors but it sure lines up. Do you agree it is the likely cause? NBA wear & tear on knees is a lot more than the average even very active person. Why should his new cartilage hold up better? He's going to be jumping and landing and running and cutting nono-stop. Assuming he even plays, I think it's really likely he will not be nearly as effective a player. We're now talking about a role player at best. He'll have to be careful for the rest of his career and limit his training, need more recovery, etc. At that point, does it really matter? He might take a Steve Kerr role and shoot a lot of 3s off the bench with limited defensive viability. I'd be real happy with that. This team needs more 3pt shooting. For Lonzo personally I'm glad it seems like he can already walk and be a normal (very rich) human.

[Ice Man]

Veteran NBA fans have observed dozens players suffering knee injuries over the years, have parsed through dozens of post-surgery statements about the players' prognoses, and have had the opportunity to later observe which of those players came back fully, which came back partially, and which did not come back at all.

Those experiences form the basis of for informed opinions. If expressing those informed opinions is improper, because somebody elsewhere might know even more, then so are all sports discussions.

[jump]

I agree with the last part - "all sports discussions" are questionable. Fans are biased, often bitter, have unrealistic expectations, cynical, heart broken and often drunk. That's why I'm proud to be a sports fan.

[Jcool0]

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[MalagaBulls]

Here is what really transpired in Lonzo's own words:

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[sco]

Bere is what really transparente in Lonzo's own words:

Read on Twitter

Wow. That is a lot.

[biggestbullsfan]

Bere is what really transparente in Lonzo's own words:

Read on Twitter

I know fans always joked about donating their knee, didn’t know this was actually a thing lol

Wish we could’ve did this for Rose lol

[Chi town]

If Lonzo actually returns and plays with a donor meniscus it would be the medical story of the league over the past decade.