MGB8 wrote:If you can get an expiring and two presumably late firsts… yeah, those late firsts aren’t alone that much, but (1) depends on the draft, (2) occasionally the late first becomes a mid first where the contending team underachieves (which still is “depends on draft” in terms of direct value), and (3) those first can then be packaged with other players / contracts / cap space for something else, down the line. So, while not be-all, end-all, way more value in picking up 2 late firsts than using AC to have one less year of Vuc.
It never depends on the draft. It depends on mostly luck. There are never, ever, ever, ever more than 5 or 10 guys in any given draft that you'd ever even want to give a long term contract to in retrospect. Yes, one of those guys is usually available in the 2nd round or even undrafted. And maybe you get lucky and pick them. But there is never, ever, ever 20+ guys that are of actual semi-long term on-court plus value as roster pieces in a draft, such that a strong draft pushes them down to the 20s. It's not even remotely close. Hell, if you get a long term core player outside of the top 5 you're quite fortunate. Outside of the top 10, outright lucky. Bulls are about as average of a franchise as there is in the last quarter century, and here are ALL of first round picks we've taken outside the top 10:
Corey Benjamin
Metta World Peace
Dalibor Bagarić
Taj Gibson
James Johnson
Jimmy Butler
Tony Snell
Doug McDermott
Bobby Portis
Denzel Valentine
Dalen Terry
I see 3 players, if I'm generous, that could be semi-core pieces for at least a few years in their prime on contenders (Artest, Taj and Jimmy). And I'm leaving out a bunch of guys taken with our picks that we traded that suck.
But you're also implying that one or both of the picks coming back for Alex would be deferred. Great, that's worked out so well for us the last 20 years. Always the alluring "future asset". Never materialize into much of anything, often literally nothing. But tempts fans who hate the present. I HATE future picks. Never know what they'll be or when they'll convey. If late firsts are worth something, we should immediately flip them. Why are we waiting to try to improve?
There is no “one step move” to get out of mediocrity. No 2 step or 3 step move, either. Bulls will not be even top-4 in East level for a minimum of 4 years and are at the beginning of a rebuild, whether they like it or not. It might have a harder floor or a softer one in terms of exactly how bad they get, and luck will be a big part in determining whether it takes 4 years, 8 years, 12 years or more before they are more than a play-in team… so the game is all about getting what assets you can to be opportunistic with any opportunities for a big jump.
I actually think it's lunacy for any team in the league to look more than 4 years into the future. Players and teams change so fast and there is so much parity that every team should be continuously operating on a continuously changing 4 year plan to win it all. Bull shouldn't be prioritizing next year, no, but they should be trying to build a serious winner that emerges in the next 2-4 years. Because losing simply doesn't drive winning. There is no reason to wait, rebuild, tank, etc whatsoever.
I do agree that opportunism is key, I just think moving Vuc (and even Caruso) opens us up much more quickly to jump on unknown opportunities. I can't stomach the test-tube philosophy of slowly becoming bad with the theory that that will inevitably make us slowly become good. This league is WAAAAAY less predictable than that.
So along the lines of my view on a 4 year plan for the Bulls, it roughly looks like surrounding Coby, Zach and Demar with a couple serious bodies at the 4/5 and see what happens. Probably doesn't win anything of note, but it probably DOES allow someone unexpected to emerge, and then you reshuffle as needed. NBA players only have 4 or sometimes 5 year contracts. Any plan that looks 8 years into the future is bound to have wild, wild errors in projection, both positive and negative.