In mid-January, I ran a table with the average coach efficiency ratings over the last 5 years. Here is an excerpt from that table:
AAO = Average Adjusted Offense
AAD = Average Adjusted Defense
AEMR = Average Efficiency Margin Rank (Offense minus Defense)
AEMR |
Coach |
Teams |
AAO |
Rank |
AAD |
Rank |
1st |
Bill Self |
Kansas |
119.2 |
2nd |
86.1 |
1st |
2nd |
John Calipari |
Kentucky, Memphis |
117.3 |
3rd |
86.1 |
2nd |
4th |
Thad Matta |
Ohio St. |
116.7 |
5th |
88.1 |
5th |
6th |
Roy Williams |
North Carolina |
116.5 |
6th |
89.5 |
8th |
7th |
Jim Boeheim |
Syracuse |
116.5 |
7th |
90.6 |
15th |
11th |
Rick Pitino |
Louisville |
111.2 |
31st |
87.8 |
4th |
18th |
Billy Donovan |
Florida |
116.9 |
4th |
95.6 |
56th |
20th |
Scott Drew |
Baylor |
115.3 |
12th |
94.7 |
49th |
Every team in the Elite Eight has a veteran coach that knows how to win. Every coach is in the Top 20 in efficiency margin over the last 5 years, and that possession by possession dominance is paying off. Eventually if you win more trips down the floor than you lose, you will find your team making a deep run in the tournament.
Keep in mind that if this table went back 7 years (and included the two Florida championship seasons), Billy Donovan would look even better. Scott Drew seems like the outlier on this list, but while I have often questioned Baylor’s defense, there is no question that Scott Drew’s teams have become much more consistent over the last 5 seasons.
Bill Self hasn't looked like a great coach the last two games. But keep in mind that his success is predicated on defense. And with the season on the line, his team got stops against both Purdue and NC State.
The Moment
Point guard injuries can clearly be catastrophic when you don’t have a viable backup. Minnesota went from beating multiple Top 25 teams to losing 10 of their last 11 last season when they lost both their point guards. So I’m not confident that North Carolina will turn it around. As John Gasaway noted on Twitter, North Carolina turned the ball over on 30% of their possessions in regulation against Ohio Friday. But how fast Kendall Marshall heals and how UNC responds will always be speculation. There will never be a large enough sample of games to know the answer, before UNC’s season is over. The only thing we can do is tune in and see what happens next.
And sometimes, that is what it is all about. As much as I love picking apart games, the joy of March basketball is getting wrapped up in the moment. There was a moment on Friday when Nick Kellogg made a three pointer to give Ohio its first lead of the game 47-46. The stadium erupted in applause. And collectively across America, everyone had the same thought. Ohio might be able to win this game. At that point it wasn’t about play-calling or matchups. It was about the wild ride. It was about DJ Cooper’s bucket and one to give Ohio a precarious two point lead. It was about Reggie Bullock’s heart as he knocked down a three. And it was about the missed opportunity when Walter Offutt missed a FT that would have given Ohio the lead in the final 30 seconds. We argue, we analyze, and we speculate all year. But in the end we watch for one reason. We live for the moment that a game captures our imagination and draws us in. We live for the last 8 minutes of Ohio vs North Carolina.
Bad and Good
Twitter was abuzz with jokes about North Carolina’s Harrison Barnes draft stock dropping on Friday thanks to his hideous 3 of 16 performance. But he wasn’t the only star player with a horrible shooting day. Ohio’s DJ Cooper had his 3 of 20 stat line. Scott Wood and Lorenzo Brown were a combined 5 of 22 for NC State. And Kansas’ Tyshawn Taylor followed up a 4 of 11 performance against Purdue with a 2 of 14 performance that included 5 turnovers against NC State. Just when we thought Tyshawn Taylor had turned a corner this season and become a consistent star, the inconsistent Tyshawn Taylor is back. At least things were better in Atlanta. Baylor’s Quincy Acy was an individual highlight reel against Xavier, scoring 20 points on some of the most impressive dunks of the season. And Kentucky and Indiana engaged in a beautiful game of transition basketball.
The most impressive thing for many people was Kentucky’s balanced scoring in the game, but I find it equally impressive how so many Kentucky players are capable of attacking the rim off the bounce. When Victor Oladipo fouled out and Matt Roth came in at the end of the game, there simply wasn’t anyone for Roth to guard. Every player on Kentucky was capable of beating him off the dribble.
Expected Wins in NCAA Tournament
Own = Change in Expected Wins based on each team’s own game.
Other = Change in Expected Wins based on other games in the bracket
Marg = Change based on the change in the Pomeroy Rankings since last Sunday.
Team |
Seed |
Start |
Own |
Other |
Marg |
EndFri |
Kentucky |
1 |
3.90 |
0.80 |
-0.09 |
0.00 |
4.62 |
Ohio St. |
2 |
4.30 |
-0.04 |
0.01 |
4.27 |
|
Kansas |
2 |
3.56 |
0.42 |
-0.10 |
-0.01 |
3.87 |
Florida |
7 |
3.87 |
-0.04 |
-0.03 |
3.80 |
|
UNC |
1 |
3.57 |
0.32 |
-0.11 |
-0.02 |
3.75 |
Louisville |
4 |
3.62 |
-0.03 |
0.06 |
3.65 |
|
Syracuse |
1 |
3.64 |
-0.02 |
0.02 |
3.64 |
|
Baylor |
3 |
3.08 |
0.44 |
-0.10 |
-0.02 |
3.41 |
Ohio |
13 |
2.21 |
-0.21 |
2.00 |
||
NC State |
11 |
2.29 |
-0.29 |
2.00 |
||
Xavier |
10 |
2.35 |
-0.35 |
2.00 |
||
Indiana |
4 |
2.61 |
-0.61 |
2.00 |
North Carolina’s win was the most expected, so it did little to increase the Tar Heels “Own” expectations. Since the favored teams all won on Friday, the effect of “Other” games is negative across the board. The “Marg” is the only column including Thursday’s games. Louisville’s win over Michigan St. was the most impressive of the round.